Speculation: ROR and Tarasenko are going to UFA - What do you do (poll)

[Brian39]

Trade a 31 y/o for an exceptional 24 y/o who is still progressing… I don’t see that happening. I see the Flames making him an offer he can’t refuse.

Out of curiosity, how many dollars do you think that would take?

My guess is that their offer needs to be north of $90M for him to seriously consider forgoing UFA. That's an $11.25M+ AAV and would be the same total dollars over 8 years as him playing on his $9M QO and then getting a 7 years deal at $11.57M AAV as a UFA.

 

[Blueston]

Out of curiosity, how many dollars do you think that would take?

My guess is that their offer needs to be north of $90M for him to seriously consider forgoing UFA. That's an $11.25M+ AAV and would be the same total dollars over 8 years as him playing on his $9M QO and then getting a 7 years deal at $11.57M AAV as a UFA.

You think Flames would go that high? I can't see Blues offering him close to that. He may get it somewhere but not in the Lou.

 

[Brian39]

You think Flames would go that high? I can't see Blues offering him close to that. He may get it somewhere but not in the Lou.

I don't think the Flames will go that high, but that is why I expect him to play on a 1 year deal and then hit UFA next summer.

Have you listened to any of his interviews from last summer when Brady was negotiating with the Sens? I've never heard an active player talk so openly and bluntly about the business side of the sport. Keith Tkachuk didn't give the Blues a hometown discount when we had to make him the 2nd highest paid player in the league in the early 2000s. Brady took the Sens for every possible penny. And last summer Matthew was giving interviews boasting about how you have to deal with the entire Tkachuk family during negotiations.

I'm not criticizing at all here. Players should be maximizing their value. I'm simply pointing out that every indication is that Matthew will be doing so and his current contract gives him all of the leverage. The entire reason he signed a 3 year deal instead of a max-term deal in 2019 was to maximize the value of his next contract (or hit UFA faster). He passed up 10s of millions in guaranteed money in 2019 to give himself the leverage now. Given the past negotiation, his public comments and the past negotiations of his brother/dad, there is every reason to believe that he will only be staying in Calgary if they pay him market price.

I genuinely believe that his market price is $90M (because the UFA market in the NHL is ludicrous).

Edit: and I absolutely don't want the Blues giving him that.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Don’t the players pay back their escrow by the end of next year? Or is it the year after?

I know when that happens, the cap is supposed to jump up a ton.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Out of curiosity, how many dollars do you think that would take?

My guess is that their offer needs to be north of $90M for him to seriously consider forgoing UFA. That's an $11.25M+ AAV and would be the same total dollars over 8 years as him playing on his $9M QO and then getting a 7 years deal at $11.57M AAV as a UFA.

Given it’s the Tkachuks, I’d say they’d want all of it. This is one of those times that I’m glad Army is our GM.

That family is motivated by money and the price they are asking, with no Cup pedigree or even Hardware to their name so far, is flat nuts.

If we’re going to spend money, spend it for what we have that works. We got Cup pedigree players with hardware that are proven, why look elsewhere or entertain signing players that only play when money is on the line?

As far as I’m concerned if you don’t want to play in the STL because money motivates your performance and not the Blue Note, then I don’t want you.

If ROR or 91 wanna search for more money or security elsewhere, all I can say is good luck and thank you for everything.

Both are legends in the STL forever and nothing will ever change that.

 

[cmcalum]

You don’t know that. None of us know what ROR will prioritize. He didn’t like Avs squeezing him when he was young so he played hardball. He is older now and has made lots of money and seems to like it here. Club obviously values him. He hated losing in Buffalo. If he thinks he can keep winning here where he is beloved, he couid very well take team friendly contract. I think that is reasonably likely scenario, but I don’t know. None of us know. But I’d bet that DA will have good sense by this summer which way ROR is leaning.

If you can name me one guy with ROR’s ability and history. that has signed a 3-4 year contract name him and I’ll agree with you. I don’t think they exist. Knowing this is probably his last contract don’t you think his agent and his family will want to maximize this contract. Please be objective as, if you are, there is no way he will sign a short term contract. Look what we gave Krug, Schenn, Faulk, Parayko, Binnington. Seeing that we will give him a shorter contract, please.

 

[GoldenSeal]

If you can name me one guy with ROR’s ability and history. that has signed a 3-4 year contract name him and I’ll agree with you. I don’t think they exist. Knowing this is probably his last contract don’t you think his agent and his family will want to maximize this contract. Please be objective as, if you are, there is no way he will sign a short term contract. Look what we gave Krug, Schenn, Faulk, Parayko, Binnington. Seeing that we will give him a shorter contract, please.

Only one who can answer this one is ROR.

Your question is flawed because ability means nothing next to desire.

The better question is what does RR desire? What would make him more comfortable? Does he really need a lot more money or his stability for himself and his family a bigger priority?

And while this isn’t a good answer because you asked about similar ability, I will note that Shane Doan chose to spend his entire career with the Yotes because it brought stability, good money and the franchise was very loyal to him. Who’s not to say that ROR at this point in his life isn’t looking for the same?

In St. Louis he is a damn near a God and second to none. Stanley Cup winner and Conn Smythe recipient with the Blues. Nowhere else has winning a championship meant more, given this franchise’s history.

You can’t beat that.

 

[BlueDream]

Only one who can answer this one is ROR.

Your question is flawed because ability means nothing next to desire.

The better question is what does RR desire? What would make him more comfortable? Does he really need a lot more money or his stability for himself and his family a bigger priority?

And while this isn’t a good answer because you asked about similar ability, I will note that Shane Doan chose to spend his entire career with the Yotes because it brought stability, good money and the franchise was very loyal to him. Who’s not to say that ROR at this point in his life isn’t looking for the same?

In St. Louis he is a damn near a God and second to none. Stanley Cup winner and Conn Smythe recipient with the Blues. Nowhere else has winning a championship meant more, given this franchise’s history.

You can’t beat that.

You can say all that stuff about Pietrangelo too. He left.

ROR is highly unlikely to take a discount or short-term deal or anything like that. This is his last big contract before retirement. He’s going to go for it.

 

[cmcalum]

Only one who can answer this one is ROR.

Your question is flawed because ability means nothing next to desire.

The better question is what does RR desire? What would make him more comfortable? Does he really need a lot more money or his stability for himself and his family a bigger priority?

And while this isn’t a good answer because you asked about similar ability, I will note that Shane Doan chose to spend his entire career with the Yotes because it brought stability, good money and the franchise was very loyal to him. Who’s not to say that ROR at this point in his life isn’t looking for the same?

In St. Louis he is a damn near a God and second to none. Stanley Cup winner and Conn Smythe recipient with the Blues. Nowhere else has winning a championship meant more, given this franchise’s history.

You can’t beat that.

 

[cmcalum]

Only one who can answer this one is ROR.

Your question is flawed because ability means nothing next to desire.

The better question is what does RR desire? What would make him more comfortable? Does he really need a lot more money or his stability for himself and his family a bigger priority?

And while this isn’t a good answer because you asked about similar ability, I will note that Shane Doan chose to spend his entire career with the Yotes because it brought stability, good money and the franchise was very loyal to him. Who’s not to say that ROR at this point in his life isn’t looking for the same?

In St. Louis he is a damn near a God and second to none. Stanley Cup winner and Conn Smythe recipient with the Blues. Nowhere else has winning a championship meant more, given this franchise’s history.

You can’t beat that.

You really aren’t comparing Shane Doan’s ability to ROR’s are you? Come on. You don’t respond to any of the long term contracts that the Blues have signed players to in term and dollars. Yes, I’m sure ROR is going to take a short term contract after seeing the dollars and term that we have paid to these players (sarcasm). Also he is no more God than Pietrangelo and Binnington and we both know where Petro is and we would dump Binnington in an instant if he didn’t have such a boat anchor contract.

 

[Majorityof1]

You can say all that stuff about Pietrangelo too. He left.

ROR is highly unlikely to take a discount or short-term deal or anything like that. This is his last big contract before retirement. He’s going to go for it.

It is probably wishful thinking but I think RoR may be willing to give a bit of a hometown discount. He was very mercenary in getting every penny he could on previous contracts; however, that didn't lead to happiness for him. It did lead to losing the love of the game. Getting traded to St. Louis has allowed him to rediscover that love. At the end of this contract, he will have made $75M+ in salary over his career to this point, plus endorsements, minus taxes, fees, escrow etc. Point being, he has made a lot of money because of his mercenary nature early. Perhaps now he can afford to take a little less toy try to keep winning, to try to keep that love of the game.

I know, most likely wishful thinking, but I don't think it is outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Blueston]

If you can name me one guy with ROR’s ability and history. that has signed a 3-4 year contract name him and I’ll agree with you. I don’t think they exist. Knowing this is probably his last contract don’t you think his agent and his family will want to maximize this contract. Please be objective as, if you are, there is no way he will sign a short term contract. Look what we gave Krug, Schenn, Faulk, Parayko, Binnington. Seeing that we will give him a shorter contract, please.

In a cap world there is only so much money to go around. He is certainly entitled to get as much as he can, but you look at place like Boston where top guys took less so they could continue to compete for Cup. Tampa too.

 

[GoldenSeal]

You really aren’t comparing Shane Doan’s ability to ROR’s are you? Come on. You don’t respond to any of the long term contracts that the Blues have signed players to in term and dollars. Yes, I’m sure ROR is going to take a short term contract after seeing the dollars and term that we have paid to these players (sarcasm). Also he is no more God than Pietrangelo and Binnington and we both know where Petro is and we would dump Binnington in an instant if he didn’t have such a boat anchor contract.

The people you're talking about are signed and signed for years already, so there's nothing to talk about, they're either staying put or they're waiving any protection they have to go elsewhere. That has nothing to do with ROR on an expiring contract.

ROR won the Conn Smythe and was the most important pickup for our Cup Run and even earned the C after Pie left.*

And yes, Pie and MANY others across the NHL has left for cash and others have chosen to give their team a discount because they wanted to stay, that doesn't mean ROR will or won't. Until ROR makes a move, we have no idea for sure what will happen and anything not from him is speculation.

And the situation IS similar with ROR and Doan. Do you stay where you're at for stability, do you leave to chase a Cup or money? Believe it or not, some people find a home and they want to stay there. Berglund was at home in and loved the STL dearly, look what happened when he was moved.

*So yeah, I'm going to say all of it. Prove I'm wrong.

 

[GoldenSeal]

It is probably wishful thinking but I think RoR may be willing to give a bit of a hometown discount. He was very mercenary in getting every penny he could on previous contracts; however, that didn't lead to happiness for him. It did lead to losing the love of the game. Getting traded to St. Louis has allowed him to rediscover that love. At the end of this contract, he will have made $75M+ in salary over his career to this point, plus endorsements, minus taxes, fees, escrow etc. Point being, he has made a lot of money because of his mercenary nature early. Perhaps now he can afford to take a little less toy try to keep winning, to try to keep that love of the game.

I know, most likely wishful thinking, but I don't think it is outside the realm of possibility.

It all boils down to which matters more, the money or the stability. Ability doesn't matter nor talent nor anything else, it's the one or the other and that's it. He's loved in the STL and his career has become storied here, does he go somewhere else or does he stay? That's up to him.

 

[BuLLeT1291]

I really hope there is a way to keep both. I know that’s unlikely in todays world. I am probably in the minority here but keep 91 over ROR. 91 has been my favorite player since he came into the league. Regardless of the issue him and the team had I hope Army can make 91 a blue for the rest of career.

 

[cmcalum]

The people you're talking about are signed and signed for years already, so there's nothing to talk about, they're either staying put or they're waiving any protection they have to go elsewhere. That has nothing to do with ROR on an expiring contract.

ROR won the Conn Smythe and was the most important pickup for our Cup Run and even earned the C after Pie left.*

And yes, Pie and MANY others across the NHL has left for cash and others have chosen to give their team a discount because they wanted to stay, that doesn't mean ROR will or won't. Until ROR makes a move, we have no idea for sure what will happen and anything not from him is speculation.

And the situation IS similar with ROR and Doan. Do you stay where you're at for stability, do you leave to chase a Cup or money? Believe it or not, some people find a home and they want to stay there. Berglund was at home in and loved the STL dearly, look what happened when he was moved.

*So yeah, I'm going to say all of it. Prove I'm wrong.

Your making my point in your first paragraph, the Blues have signed these guys to long term contracts at significant dollars and you expect ROR to take less. There is no way he will do that. At the end of the day, these players want to maximize their value. You talk in generalities about other players who played for less to stay in their city. Please name them. Your one specific was Shane Doan who never made more than 4 million a year. As I said he is not the player that ROR is. We can revisit this in a few months as the Blues will have to make some hard decisions in the offseason with regard to Perron, ROR and Tarasenko in addition to their left defense. In addition, they have to find the money for Kyrou and especially Thomas who is going to be an elite center in this league.

 

[Brian39]

Don’t the players pay back their escrow by the end of next year? Or is it the year after?

I know when that happens, the cap is supposed to jump up a ton.

The most recent projection is that it will get paid off by the end of the 2023/24 season.

With that said, it is uncertain how much the cap will immediately "explode." Assuming the escrow debt is paid in full by the end of the 2023/24 season, this is the maximum year-by-year growth of the cap over the life of this CBA (unless HRR is high enough that players would be projected to take home less than 50% of the HRR in years after the escrow debt is paid off):

2022/23: $82.5M
2023/24: $83.5M
2024/25: $87.675
2025/26: $92.058

Now, what gets really interesting is if HRR has grown so much that an $87.675 salary cap would see the players projected to earn less than 50% of the year's HRR in 2024/25. If that occurs, then the NHL and PA can negotiate a further increase in the salary cap (both for 2023/24 and/or 2024/25. Note that this is allowed by the CBA and not required. The maximum year-by-year cap increase in this scenario is 10% (instead of the 5% increase as outlined in the figures above).

The more I look at the MOU, the more impressed I am by it. Getting a $1B+ escrow debt paid off a couple years before the expiration of a 4 year extension is an accomplishment, especially since it didn't require skipped paychecks or completely obscene escrow. The cap should be pretty much back on track at the expiration of this CBA and if the parties can act like adults (an admittedly big "if") then this CBA could completely eliminate escrow as a contentious issue. In the final 2 years of this CBA, the PA is going to have an opportunity to see the cap jump by about $9M+ (over 2 seasons) with escrow sitting at 0%. We could enter the next round of CBA negotiations looking at a projected salary cap of $95M+ that would see no/little escrow going from the players to the league.

Now, I'm fully confident that the two sides will find something to go to war over, but both sides should be pretty damn happy with the state of the league in 2025 and 2026. There shouldn't be much desire from either side to shut down the league again. For an extension that was done under major duress (a global pandemic and potential to not award a Cup without getting a quick deal done), the cap formula they came up with is pretty damn impressive.

As for how this all impacts the Blues: Army needs to be lobbying Bettman (and our owners) extremely hard to get the NHL to come to the table with the PA to talk about increasing the 2023/24 cap by more than $1M. The MOU allows the parties to increase the cap by more than $1M before the escrow debt is paid "...in order to allow for a smoother transition into the ‘Lag’ formula (the formula that calculates the cap increase once the debt is paid)." Army should be aggressively pushing the narrative that increasing the cap by $2-3M more in 2023/24 will help smooth the transition into 2024/25, prevent a shortfall where the players are earning less than 50% once the debt is paid and keep both sides content heading into the next round of CBA negotiations.

Every penny is going to count to get compliant in 2023/24 and we are better off starting a slower cap increase that season than a bigger jump starting in 2024/25. Army should be using his clout to convince any GM/governor/owner who will listen that smoothing this cap jump is in everyone's interest.

 

[Brian39]

And yes, Pie and MANY others across the NHL has left for cash and others have chosen to give their team a discount because they wanted to stay

Plenty of guys have given discounts. I can't recall anyone giving $15M+ discounts as pending UFAs. So far you have used Doan as an example. However, it is pure fiction that he gave the Coyotes massive discounts to stay there. This is the reality of Doan's contracts and how they could be used as comps for ROR.

In early 2007, he signed a 5 year deal at $4.5M AAV. That number was 10.34% of the cap, it was more than double his previous AAV and it took him through 35. When he signed the deal he had never hit the 70 point mark or received a vote for any individual award. He had hit the 60 point mark just 3 times in a decade long career. That 10.34% of the cap is the equivalent to $8.53M against the cap as it will stand when we would extend ROR. This contract was not a massive discount. But even assuming it was a discount on term, it doesn't create a great comp to ask ROR to take similar term. If you believe that ROR is no better than Doan (I would wildly disagree) then the team-friendliest discount you could hope to get using this contract as a comp would be $8.53M x 4 years with a full NMC. That would pay ROR the same cap percentage Doan got, take him to the same age and give him the same movement protection.

Frankly, if I were ROR I'd be pretty damn insulted if you entered negotiations comparing my resume to Shane Doan's resume at the time he signed this contract. ROR plays center (Doan played RW), has multiple pieces of individual hardware, is more offensively productive, and is considered a no-doubt top 20 defensive NHL forward (Doan had received exactly zero Selke votes through his career when he signed this deal). If he is taking a multi-season term discount then there should be zero expectation that he also take the same financial package Doan got. He's a noticeably better player, so we're talking about $9M+ on a 4 year deal. With a full NMC.

Doan's next contract was a 4 year deal with a $5.3M AAV (8.83% of the cap at that point). The AAV was a discount, but that is because he signed it after he turned 35 and it didn't expire until 4 months before his 40th birthday. A multi-year contract signed after the age of 35 was essentially buyout proof and it included a full NMC for the duration. Any discount on the AAV was because the the Coyotes extended the term into the very end of his 30s. And he was coming off a 50 point season so I would argue that it wasn't even a big discount on the AAV. If you are talking about this contract in your bid to get a discount from ROR, then the starting point is making a max-term 8 year offer that takes ROR through his age 39 season. It would need to have a full NMC for the duration and enough bonus money that it becomes largely buyout proof. The cap percentage needs to be higher than the 8.83% Doan got since you are also buying a few pre-35 years, so let's call it 9.25%. That's $7.63M x 8 years with a full NMC.

Players take discounts all the time, but they don't leave 10s of millions of dollars on the table. Doan didn't just sign to huge discounts because of the franchise's loyalty to him. He got a very market-value deal in 2007, played very well through his early 30s and then leveraged that into a $21.2M contract offer when he was 36 years old. He chose to stay in Arizona rather than waiving the NMC to chase Cups towards the end and part of that decision was due to the stability and loyalty the franchise showed him. But part of that loyalty was that the team paid him his market value over multiple contracts.

Any talk about loyalty, stability, and pride in the Blue Note is meaningless noise if you are simultaneously asking the player to sign a 3-4 year deal. The way teams show loyalty to players in their early 30s is by committing to them past 35 when everyone knows that their game will be slipping (or have slipped). Loyalty is a two way street. If you can't commit to keeping the player for the rest of his career, then you can't expect the player to give up millions of dollars to help you.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

You are correct.

But his contract negotiation is going to be interesting. He's on pace for 100 points and his current contract is structured to set him up for an awesome 1 year deal. In order to keep his RFA rights, the Flames have to give him a $9M qualifying offer. There is speculation that he will just take his QO and then hit UFA as a 25 year old. I think he is most likely going to just use the threat of that as leverage to get all the money on an 8 year deal from Calgary. But he is set up perfectly to get himself to UFA as a 25 year old 100+ point player.

Personally, I don't have a ton of interest in Tkachuk given what his next contract will cost. The Tkachuks are unapologetically out to maximize their earnings and I don't expect a hometown discount to play in St. Louis. He will have a chance to become the 2nd highest paid player in the league. That player is currently Panarin. Tkachuk is hitting UFA 2 years younger than Panarin, whose career high was 87 points when he hit UFA. Tkachuk already has 89 points this season and he has 2 seasons eclipsing Panarin's career high in goals. Tkachuk is more physical and has better possession metrics. Tkachuk's resume is better than Panarin's was at the time he went UFA, his family notoriously wants to leave zero dollars on the table and he's hitting UFA at 25.

A large hometown discount on Tkachuk will be 7 x $75M and a full NMC.

I genuinely don't know how we would find the space to sign Matthew, Thomas and Kyrou at the same time.

Blues are playing their best hockey of the year and Kyrou has been a ghost. People are talking about adding more two-way players to the forward core. If we could get Tkachuk, I'd be all for selling high on Kyrou to replenish the farm or address other areas of weakness.

Thomas is flat out untouchable, obvi.

 

[TK 421]

I'm trying to imagine a world where Matt Tkachuk and Doug Armstrong could agree on a number and I'm thinking...no. Just...not...going...to happen. Maybe on Earth 61 in a Batman parallel universe but not this one.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Blues are playing their best hockey of the year and Kyrou has been a ghost. People are talking about adding more two-way players to the forward core. If we could get Tkachuk, I'd be all for selling high on Kyrou to replenish the farm or address other areas of weakness.

Thomas is flat out untouchable, obvi.

I see where you're coming from as far as selling high on Kyrou, but

 

[Frenzy31]

Another thing to discuss is the jump in cap space in 3 years. 11.25 million will not be % wise what it is today.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If Matt Tkachuk signed with the Blues for anything under 9mil it would be insane with how the Tkachuk's are with contracts.


Edit: I expect him At over 10mil a season. Maybe more.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Blues are playing their best hockey of the year and Kyrou has been a ghost. People are talking about adding more two-way players to the forward core. If we could get Tkachuk, I'd be all for selling high on Kyrou to replenish the farm or address other areas of weakness.

Thomas is flat out untouchable, obvi.

I see where you're coming from as far as selling high on Kyrou, but I'm also looking to Thomas as an example for the developmental curve of a young, supremely skilled player in the NHL. Thomas was great his rookie year and even better in the playoffs, then he was injured and hit a bit of a wall in his development and some fair questions we're being asked in regard to whether he wanted to be great or was just satisfied being in the NHL.

Last year was technically Kyrou's rookie year, but this has been his first full NHL season as a fixture in the lineup. I just have a hard time justifying moving him when he's clearly going through some growing pains and what looks to be a nagging injury while trying to find his legs after his recent illness.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

I'm trying to imagine a world where Matt Tkachuk and Doug Armstrong could agree on a number and I'm thinking...no. Just...not...going...to happen. Maybe on Earth 61 in a Batman parallel universe but not this one.

I'm inclined to agree. He obviously wants to play here but has probably played himself out of our price range. He's just now entering his prime and expecting him to take a home town discount and leave millions of dollars on the table isn't realistic, imo. Unfortunately the chances of him wearing a blue note may not come until he's on the wrong side of 30.