Proposal: RNH + Koskinen to CBJ

[majormajor]

Doubt the Blue Jackets can afford to give RNH 7x7 plus give big contracts to Laine, Jones and Werenski in the next 2 summers.

They absolutely can fit them in. I've tested it out, there's still more than enough money coming off the books to offset it. It's more a question of whether those are the kind of players you can win with, specifically RNH and Laine. Are they even top liners at 5v5?

There has to be something in these scenarios for the player, which he can't get on his own. The moment a team comes to you and says it wants to trade you, it's not your team anymore. You'll just decline and tell them you'll call your own shot in free agency in a few months, and f*** you very much. They've given up the right to claim loyalty; they want to trade you and they've told you so to your face.

The upshot is that sign-and-trades are only applicable for superstars, for the sorts of players that teams would give eight-year deals. The eighth year, which a player can't get on his own in free agency, is what entices the player to play ball. That's it.

Nah. Pageau did one last year. Turris did one when he went to Nashville. There are many more instances I'm sure. It's far more common than you seem to recall.

What does the player get out of it? Guaranteed money! Why nervously wait for July hoping that you won't get injured and hoping that your scoring slump won't ruin your chances, when you can just lock in to your ask now?

 

[TFHockey]

They absolutely can fit them in. I've tested it out, there's still more than enough money coming off the books to offset it. It's more a question of whether those are the kind of players you can win with, specifically RNH and Laine. Are they even top liners at 5v5?



Nah. Pageau did one last year. Turris did one when he went to Nashville. There are many more instances I'm sure. It's far more common than you seem to recall.

What does the player get out of it? Guaranteed money! Why nervously wait for July hoping that you won't get injured and hoping that your scoring slump won't ruin your chances, when you can just lock in to your ask now?

I think both players have proven they are top line wingers. RNH was forced to be Edmonton's 1C in his early years and it was asking too much of him.

In the past two seasons he has had 69 points in 82 games and 61 in 65. Those are good numbers.

I don't see why the Oiler should deal Nuge if they can sign him to a reasonable contract. He provides them the chance to play Drai and McDavid together when the coach wants to. Otherwise he can ride shotgun and rack up points with either center. He is a versatile player who knows the team and the city. If there is a number both sides can live with they should both sign on the dotted line. Chasing Laine, who is more gifted offensively but is a mercurial player isn't the best use of assets... especially at the asking price talked about on these boards.

 

[majormajor]

I think both players have proven they are top line wingers. RNH was forced to be Edmonton's 1C in his early years and it was asking too much of him.

In the past two seasons he has had 69 points in 82 games and 61 in 65. Those are good numbers.

The issue is that it is mostly PP scoring. Jackets would be looking for a top center at 5v5, and that's where RNH is more of a middle six guy. His one great burst of 5v5 scoring came last Spring with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. This year there has been almost nothing, even when playing as McDavid's winger.

 

[TFHockey]

The issue is that it is mostly PP scoring. Jackets would be looking for a top center at 5v5, and that's where RNH is more of a middle six guy. His one great burst of 5v5 scoring came last Spring with Draisaitl and Yamamoto. This year there has been almost nothing, even when playing as McDavid's winger.

RNH is too good to be consider a middle six guy. He isn't a 3C or a 3Lw at any rate. He is clearly best suited on the 2nd line or even on the top line as a winger.

His numbers this year are only so so. 11-15-26 in 35 games. His goals are evenly split, six 5v5 and five on the pp. In fact RNH has always scored more goals 5v5 than on the powerplay. Last year his 22 goals were split 15 at even strength and 7 on the pp. Before that it was even more pronounced.

If you're counting both goals and assists, this year is the only one where he scored more points on the powerplay than at even strength. Most years it is the other way around.

So your argument does not quite hold water.

 

[majormajor]

RNH is too good to be consider a middle six guy. He isn't a 3C or a 3Lw at any rate. He is clearly best suited on the 2nd line or even on the top line as a winger.

His numbers this year are only so so. 11-15-26 in 35 games. His goals are evenly split, six 5v5 and five on the pp. In fact RNH has always scored more goals 5v5 than on the powerplay. Last year his 22 goals were split 15 at even strength and 7 on the pp. Before that it was even more pronounced.

If you're counting both goals and assists, this year is the only one where he scored more points on the powerplay than at even strength. Most years it is the other way around.

So your argument does not quite hold water.

His production was not piss poor at 5v5 prior to this year but prior to 2020 it wasn't topline caliber either.

Look at his career scoring rates. Higher than 2.0 P/60 is top line level. He's been at the cusp of that a few times but also several times more of a 3rd line level.

 

[TFHockey]

His production was not piss poor at 5v5 prior to this year but prior to 2020 it wasn't topline caliber either.

Look at his career scoring rates. Higher than 2.0 P/60 is top line level. He's been at the cusp of that a few times but also several times more of a 3rd line level.

This we agree this year, a contract year, RNH isn't lighting it up. Maybe that is to Holland's benefit.

I think your characterization of RNH as a 3rd line productive player is a bit off the mark. Top six is where he belongs.

On a slightly related note the Oilers clearly need an upgrade at 3c.

 

[majormajor]

This we agree this year, a contract year, RNH isn't lighting it up. Maybe that is to Holland's benefit.

I think your characterization of RNH as a 3rd line productive player is a bit off the mark. Top six is where he belongs.

On a slightly related note the Oilers clearly need an upgrade at 3c.

A P/60 under 1.4 is not a top six level. That's not a characterization or description of the player. It's just a number. It means most NHL regular forwards top that.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

maybe sign Hoffman in the offseason then.. scoring winger.. salary will prolly fall in that range

Same Hoffman who’s a healthy scratch? Much rather pay RNH.

Hoffman is one dimensional and has 1g 1a in his last 10 games and is only averaging 15 mins a game this year and it on the wrong side of 30

 

[DropTheGloves]

I know this and it doesn't change my point one iota.

Why would nuge do this instead I hitting the open market? Just the help out the Oilers?

But it doesn't even help the Oilers it makes them worse.

It would be stupid of Nuge to turn down a significant raise with term in this market no matter when the offer was made. He’d be leaving himself open to a Hoffman or Barrie situation by trying to gamble that a better deal would be out there in the summer.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Same Hoffman who’s a healthy scratch? Much rather pay RNH.

Hoffman is one dimensional and has 1g 1a in his last 10 games and is only averaging 15 mins a game this year and it on the wrong side of 30

honestly, Hoffman has been playing a 200ft game. but for some reason Berube continues to play him on the 3rd line to 'spread out the offense' then is amazed when talented players playing with 3rd liners isn't scoring...
and a much better stick handler and skater than I would have thought
wouldn't mind him being brought back to STL at all

 

[bukwas]

I can't see the Jackets having any interest even if Torts wasn't there.

 

[McSuper]

No chance. We really shouldn't sell low on RNH.

His value is dictated by his play . His value is what his stats say it is .

 

[ujju2]

His value is dictated by his play . His value is what his stats say it is .

And if it's that low we're better off keeping him. Actually we're better off keeping him anyways.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

They need to lock down Nurse and Barrie.
I'm 1/2 convinced that Hopkins and Larsson are becoming expendable.

They may be on paper but you lose franchise cohesion and camraderie when you get rid of players that have been there for a long time and are contributing positively now that it's turned the corner. RNH/Larsson know Tippett's system, how McDavid/Drasaitl want their linemates to play, all the team traditions, would presumably come back for reasonable amount, etc. You replace them with Domi or Athanasiou who seem like they're doing well with another organization and they easily fall flat. Look at how much the Canucks are missing the players they lost even though they theoretically replaced everyone with comparable contributers except Toffoli. Teams mature into Cup winners across the roster.

 

[DropTheGloves]

They may be on paper but you lose franchise cohesion and camraderie when you get rid of players that have been there for a long time and are contributing now that it's turned the corner. RNH/Larsson know Tippett's system, how McDavid/Drasaitl want them to play, all the team traditions, would presumably come back for reasonable amount, etc. You replace them with Domi or Athanasiou from another organization and they easily fall flat. Look at how much the Canucks are missing the players they lost even though they theoretically replaced everyone with comparable contributers except Toffoli

I don't think keeping a guy just because he's been on a particular team for a long time is ever a good reason. They need to be a contributor in other measurable or impactful ways, and RNH is not a productive winger- and especially so with McDavid for whatever reason. Holland can't afford to pay $6M+ for what he's produced in that role so far, so it's time they trade him to Columbus or somewhere else where he can play his natural position and develop chemistry with a set pair of linemates. I don't see it ending well for either party if RNH re-ups for longer than 3 years at his current salary (or more).

 

[LTIR]

A P/60 under 1.4 is not a top six level. That's not a characterization or description of the player. It's just a number. It means most NHL regular forwards top that.

If your numbers are telling you that RNH is not a top 6 forward then throw them away.
He is in no form a 3rd liner.

 

[majormajor]

If your numbers are telling you that RNH is not a top 6 forward then throw them away.
He is in no form a 3rd liner.

Re-read the second sentence.

 

[Guffman]

You don't get to play asset management games with your own pending UFAs, not when you are even a modest buyer and a playoff team. You aren't going to trade them as rentals for futures at the deadline. Early in the offseason, you can re-sign them or see them walk in free agency. At no point are you going to be able to use them as trade chits.

But, ah, the moon shot that keeps HFBoards going! In the exceptionally rare cases where sign-and-trades have happened in the NHL, it's been about the player using his current team (which make no mistake, is signaling that it wants to be rid of him in these scenarios and maximize its return) to get the extra year that he can't get in free agency.

There has to be something in these scenarios for the player, which he can't get on his own. The moment a team comes to you and says it wants to trade you, it's not your team anymore. You'll just decline and tell them you'll call your own shot in free agency in a few months, and f*** you very much. They've given up the right to claim loyalty; they want to trade you and they've told you so to your face.

The upshot is that sign-and-trades are only applicable for superstars, for the sorts of players that teams would give eight-year deals. The eighth year, which a player can't get on his own in free agency, is what entices the player to play ball. That's it.

Anyone think Nugent-Hopkins is in line for a max-term deal? No? Then why does he help out the Oilers?

My guess is the Oilers re-sign him in the offseason, perhaps right after the expansion draft but before the start of free agency. My gut feeling is they'll probably give him more than the OP would like, but that's the way it goes with free agency.

Y’know, I was going to crap all over this proposal but I think you did a great job expressing my feelings on this. Kudos!

 

[McSuper]

And if it's that low we're better off keeping him. Actually we're better off keeping him anyways.

Yes let’s sign him to a high contract for years to come because his value is low . And if he doesn’t improve you are stuck with an anchor of a contract .

 

[thadd]

We should fire Pulju to the moon then considering he has both on his line and only 1 G in last 10.

The only joke is Oilers fans chasing him out of town.

Puljujarvi is fine. He's affordable. He goes to the net. He's shooting.
If you're gonna make 6-7m per playing with McDavid or Drai, you better be scoring at a mad pace.
Just look at what Crosby got out of lesser line-mates over the years!

 

[thadd]

They may be on paper but you lose franchise cohesion and camraderie when you get rid of players that have been there for a long time and are contributing positively now that it's turned the corner. RNH/Larsson know Tippett's system, how McDavid/Drasaitl want their linemates to play, all the team traditions, would presumably come back for reasonable amount, etc. You replace them with Domi or Athanasiou who seem like they're doing well with another organization and they easily fall flat. Look at how much the Canucks are missing the players they lost even though they theoretically replaced everyone with comparable contributers except Toffoli. Teams mature into Cup winners across the roster.

Larsson can probably be replaced. I hate judging what players are worth on a contract year. Larsson has struggled mightily over the previous two seasons. He looked like gold in the first season we had him and this year he's kept the brain farts to a minimum, but there's nothing I hate more than signing a guy who had a great contract year and watching him come back down to earth.

If we let go of Hopkins we will miss him, but would we miss the 7M cap space more? Hopkins doesn't go into prime shooting areas often enough, can't win face-offs to save his life and can't be counted on to put up any more than 50 points unless he's playing with a franchise player. Hopkins is a 50 point forward on his own and plays very well defensively when he isn't taking face-offs. Is that worth 7M? There's going to be a bunch of people laughing their asses off at Edmonton for losing a top 6 forward, but that rhetoric will get old quickly as his new suitor will find he's a 7 dressed up as a 9.

I think by buying out Neal and letting Larsson and Hopkins walk we can get more out of our cap space than we could get out of retaining any of those assets.

 

[majormajor]

I think by buying out Neal and letting Larsson and Hopkins walk we can get more out of our cap space than we could get out of retaining any of those assets.

Possibly but it might be more spare cap than you can spend wisely. Most guys on the UFA market are going to get paid handsomely. If you can get next year's Toffoli, then sure. But it might be that the Oilers end up with guys who are worse value than Larsson or Nuge.

One thing that I'd be concerned about is going with a right side of Barrie, Bouchard, and Bear. It's a bit of a monoculture. Larsson plays an important role and they need someone on the right side to be able to do that.

 

[thadd]

Possibly but it might be more spare cap than you can spend wisely. Most guys on the UFA market are going to get paid handsomely. If you can get next year's Toffoli, then sure. But it might be that the Oilers end up with guys who are worse value than Larsson or Nuge.

One thing that I'd be concerned about is going with a right side of Barrie, Bouchard, and Bear. It's a bit of a monoculture. Larsson plays an important role and they need someone on the right side to be able to do that.

Nurse and Barrie are our big expenditures on the blueline.
Bouchard makes smart moves with the puck and is going to be fighting with Bear for the 2nd pairing spot.
Don't know when or if we'll get Klefbom back, but whether or not we keep Larsson it's not going to change our situation on the left side.
Laggeson looks solid this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough to be any more than a 3rd pairing left side d-man if we're playing outside of the Canadian division.
So yeah, Larsson money goes towards a 2nd pairing left shot d-man if the team isn't expecting Klefbom back. Not something the league is in great shortage of. If Klefbom is back that Larsson money is going towards forwards.

With Hopkins' 6M off of the books we aren't looking for a 5-6M guy. We're looking for 2-3 3-4M guys so that we actually have depth so that we get more offense out of our team as a whole so that our lines that don't contain McDavid or Drai can better take advantage of not being up against the opposition's best shut-down lines/pairings.

 

[LTIR]

His value is dictated by his play . His value is what his stats say it is .

Stats say he is going at a 25G 60+ pt pace over 82Games averaging over 20mins /night playing top PK and PP minutes and doing very well in both.

 

[majormajor]

With Hopkins' 6M off of the books we aren't looking for a 5-6M guy. We're looking for 2-3 3-4M guys so that we actually have depth so that we get more offense out of our team as a whole so that our lines that don't contain McDavid or Drai can better take advantage of not being up against the opposition's best shut-down lines/pairings.

I've heard this a lot but what are some examples of those 3-4M guys?

Often players making that kind of money aren't much better than journeymen like Kahun.