Speculation: Rielly's Next Contract

[Deez Nuts]

3 games on an AHL roster later, it's official, he's a second pairing defenseman LOL. Nevermind playing top minutes without top PP minutes a majority of the year (and still being on pace for 35), nevermind being 21, never mind the state of the roster, nope he's mediocre.

Wow so sensitive. The poster suggested how great Rielly has played since the trade, all I did was post his statistics since Phaneuf was shipped. Meanwhile, Gardiner has put up ppg and has an even +/- since the trade - I think he has stepped up his play rather than Rielly. Sorry to point out Goldenboy's stats since the bockbuster trade, obviously you can't handle the truth based on your defensive response.

 

[Deez Nuts]

I see your logic, but no offense the Leafs don't score a lot compared to a team like Dallas.

You really think that if Rielly was not on the Stars he wouldn't have more points due to primary/secondary assist of Spezza, Seguin, Sharp and Benn?

The fact of the matter is that he plays for the Leafs. Points will come as the team starts to develop consistent offensive players.

Sure his point pace will increase once he is surrounded with better talent. Is this going to put him in the upper echelon of scoring though? His defensive game is very suspect at this point, he is one of the worst D at giving up shots against. The point I am trying to make is that throwing him big bucks based on upside could backfire. Does he deserve 50% more a year than players like Klinberg or Gardiner like the majority in this thread suggest? I feel like the colour of his jersey, hype and draft position is the reasoning for these big contract suggestions, not his on ice play.

 

[Durrr]

Wow so sensitive. The poster suggested how great Rielly has played since the trade, all I did was post his statistics since Phaneuf was shipped. Meanwhile, Gardiner has put up ppg and has an even +/- since the trade - I think he has stepped up his play rather than Rielly. Sorry to point out Goldenboy's stats since the bockbuster trade, obviously you can't handle the truth based on your defensive response.

Who cares about his stats since the trade? This team is barley NHL caliber right now. You're looking at a 3 game sample and coming to bigger conclusions (just like whichever poster did), and it simply doesn't work like that.

The way you used his stats to call him mediocre just showed a fundamental misunderstanding of how stats actually work. Expecting him to put up league leading numbers (on both offense or defense) on one of the worst team's in the league is just ridiculous.

 

[Deez Nuts]

Who cares about his stats since the trade? This team is barley NHL caliber right now. You're looking at a 3 game sample and coming to bigger conclusions (just like whichever poster did), and it simply doesn't work like that.
T
he way you used his stats to call him mediocre just showed a fundamental misunderstanding of how stats actually work.

The poster claimed how great Rielly has played since the trade. I countered with Rielly's stats that show otherwise. No need for you to spin things out of context. This shows a lack of fundemental understanding of the english language and basic reading comprehension. Why do you need to fabricate an assumption that I expect Rielly to be a league leader in scoring and have amazing defensive statistics?

 

[Durrr]

The poster claimed how great Rielly has played since the trade. I countered with Rielly's stats that show otherwise. No need for you to spin things out of context. This shows a lack of fundemental understanding of the english language and basic reading comprehension. Why do you need to fabricate an assumption that I expect Rielly to be a league leader in scoring and have amazing defensive statistics?

loll, how so? Were you not the one commenting on his offensive stats for the season? The one calling him poor defensively? These are broad statements, not commentary on 3 games of play.

"I get everyone loves Mo, but he is currently a solid second pair D with upside. Defensively, Gardiner is the superior player and offense is a wash. Not sure why so many want to throw big money with term for a defenseman who is challenged on the defensive side of the ice and whose point totals are rather mediocre."

And then, in your next post"

Sure his point pace will increase once he is surrounded with better talent. Is this going to put him in the upper echelon of scoring though?

Basing these opinion off 3 games are we? What assumptions am I making that you haven't clearly laid out?

 

[mikebel111*]

We will be really happy to sign him to a long term deal. Star in the making

 

[studebaker17]

loll, how so? Were you not the one commenting on his offensive stats for the season? The one calling him poor defensively? These are broad statements, not commentary on 3 games of play.

"I get everyone loves Mo, but he is currently a solid second pair D with upside. Defensively, Gardiner is the superior player and offense is a wash. Not sure why so many want to throw big money with term for a defenseman who is challenged on the defensive side of the ice and whose point totals are rather mediocre."

And then, in your next post"

Sure his point pace will increase once he is surrounded with better talent. Is this going to put him in the upper echelon of scoring though?

Basing these opinion off 3 games are we? What assumptions am I making that you haven't clearly laid out?

You realize Rielly's only 21 right ? We're just beginning to see what he'll become, gards is much closer to a finished product and Rielly's already ahead of Gards in his best offensive output to date. Couple that with Rielly's progressed since the day he was drafted so there's no reason to think he won't continue to progress.

 

[Deez Nuts]

loll, how so? Were you not the one commenting on his offensive stats for the season? The one calling him poor defensively? These are broad statements, not commentary on 3 games of play.

"I get everyone loves Mo, but he is currently a solid second pair D with upside. Defensively, Gardiner is the superior player and offense is a wash. Not sure why so many want to throw big money with term for a defenseman who is challenged on the defensive side of the ice and whose point totals are rather mediocre."

And then, in your next post"

Sure his point pace will increase once he is surrounded with better talent. Is this going to put him in the upper echelon of scoring though?

Basing these opinion off 3 games are we? What assumptions am I making that you haven't clearly laid out?

You clearly said that I expect Rielly to be a league leader in scoring and possess elite defensive statistics - then said this assumption is ridiculous. Where did I ever say I expect these things?Like I said, you have spinned things out of context and manufactured assumptions.

Also, you stated that my opinions are based on 3 games which is a bunch of crap. Not sure what planet you live on, but zero points and a minus 7 in three games since the trade is not "great" like the poster suggested no matter how you slice it. It is a fact that Rielly gives up an obscene amount of shots against, meanwhile Gardiner is applauded to be one of the best. It's funny how some stats are the holy grail only if they show a Leaf player in a positive way. Gardiner has put up ppg since the trade and is not a minus either - how come the AHL roster is not a factor when the Gardiner thread is flooded with positive vibes? There is a double standard - one for Rielly and then there is the rest.
Rielly ranks around 40th in scoring, mediocre in my opinion considering he was touted as an offensive superstar coming out of junior. Meanwhile guys like Ghost and Klinberg are destroying him offensively. I am surprised Leaf fans want to pay Rielly close to 40-50% more a year compared to players like Gardiner and Klinberg. Why does he deserve so much more?

 

[moon111]

Doug Hamilton type money.

 

[studebaker17]

You clearly said that I expect Rielly to be a league leader in scoring and possess elite defensive statistics - then said this assumption is ridiculous. Where did I ever say I expect these things?Like I said, you have spinned things out of context and manufactured assumptions.

Also, you stated that my opinions are based on 3 games which is a bunch of crap. Not sure what planet you live on, but zero points and a minus 7 in three games since the trade is not "great" like the poster suggested no matter how you slice it. It is a fact that Rielly gives up an obscene amount of shots against, meanwhile Gardiner is applauded to be one of the best. It's funny how some stats are the holy grail only if they show a Leaf player in a positive way. Gardiner has put up ppg since the trade and is not a minus either - how come the AHL roster is not a factor when the Gardiner thread is flooded with positive vibes? There is a double standard - one for Rielly and then there is the rest.
Rielly ranks around 40th in scoring, mediocre in my opinion considering he was touted as an offensive superstar coming out of junior. Meanwhile guys like Ghost and Klinberg are destroying him offensively. I am surprised Leaf fans want to pay Rielly close to 40-50% more a year compared to players like Gardiner and Klinberg. Why does he deserve so much more?

Just curious how u think Klingberg would be if he traded places with Rielly and instead of playing with one of the most offensive teams in the league and a great partner in Goligoski to a bottom Offensive team playing with Hunwick .

Even if Gards has not come close to peaking , which he should be close at 25 his contract is 2 yrs old already and he's going to be a UFA in 3yrs so if he continues to progress the Leafs will have to pony up a lot more. It's kind of the point what people are making here is it's probably better to overpay at the moment in Rielly's case than waiting to cost a lot more later.

 

[Durrr]

You realize Rielly's only 21 right ? We're just beginning to see what he'll become, gards is much closer to a finished product and Rielly's already ahead of Gards in his best offensive output to date. Couple that with Rielly's progressed since the day he was drafted so there's no reason to think he won't continue to progress.

No no I agree lol, I was crudely quoting another poster who doesn't, Rielly isn't even close to peaking. Also, it's completely foolish to compare the offense from Rielly on a bottom 5 offensive team to a player on a top 5 team.

 

[studebaker17]

No no I agree lol, I was crudely quoting another poster who doesn't, Rielly isn't even close to peaking. Also, it's completely foolish to compare the offense from Rielly on a bottom 5 offensive team to a player on a top 5 team.

I noticed i quoted the wrong guy after sorry lol

 

[Deez Nuts]

Just curious how u think Klingberg would be if he traded places with Rielly and instead of playing with one of the most offensive teams in the league and a great partner in Goligoski to a bottom Offensive team playing with Hunwick .

Even if Gards has not come close to peaking , which he should be close at 25 his contract is 2 yrs old already and he's going to be a UFA in 3yrs so if he continues to progress the Leafs will have to pony up a lot more. It's kind of the point what people are making here is it's probably better to overpay at the moment in Rielly's case than waiting to cost a lot more later.

No doubt the overall team, team mates, structure, TOI and usage all play a role when evaluating players. There is zero doubt that Rielly's offensive production would be better if he played for Dallas. However, why does Rielly deserve 40-50% more than Klinberg per year? Klinberg put up 40 pts in 65 games in his rookie year, meanwhile Rielly scored 2 goals in his rookie campaign. Why is Gardiner right near the top in terms of shot suppression? This is one of the main reason's he is considered effective defensively. Meanwhile Rielly ranks at the very bottom in the same category, yet when this comes up it is the crappy team and unreliable partner that is used as an excuse.
I understand that many want to pony up now rather than later. But I feel this is based on the colour of his jersey, hope and hype. If guys like Klinberg and Ghost are putting/put up big offensive numbers in their rookie years, perhaps Rielly is not the offensive wizard he was made out to be? Even if the offence isn't there, I find his defensive game to be nothing better than average or adequate and combining this with his offensive output makes me very hesitant to pay this guy big money with term based on upside.

 

[hamzarocks]

No doubt the overall team, team mates, structure, TOI and usage all play a role when evaluating players. There is zero doubt that Rielly's offensive production would be better if he played for Dallas. However, why does Rielly deserve 40-50% more than Klinberg per year? Klinberg put up 40 pts in 65 games in his rookie year, meanwhile Rielly scored 2 goals in his rookie campaign. Why is Gardiner right near the top in terms of shot suppression? This is one of the main reason's he is considered effective defensively. Meanwhile Rielly ranks at the very bottom in the same category, yet when this comes up it is the crappy team and unreliable partner that is used as an excuse.
I understand that many want to pony up now rather than later. But I feel this is based on the colour of his jersey, hope and hype. If guys like Klinberg and Ghost are putting/put up big offensive numbers in their rookie years, perhaps Rielly is not the offensive wizard he was made out to be? Even if the offence isn't there, I find his defensive game to be nothing better than average or adequate and combining this with his offensive output makes me very hesitant to pay this guy big money with term based on upside.

Lol, How old was Klinger when he made his debut. He did it 5 years after being drafted. Rielly was playing in the nhl a in his d plus 2 year. Rielly has never been given the pp time and played with the talent quality that Klinberg or ghost have. Ghost plays a lot on the pp and over half his points come from there. He is playing with Simmons, Giroux, Vorachek on the pp. Two of those guys are elite players while simmons is a great pp player. He is also playing at the age of 22 as a rookie. Rielly has been really dangerous on the pp and in general over the past 3 games. He has set up players on more than oe occasion, hits post, and generated rebounds for players. His plus minus isn't a result of him being poor defensively or being caught out of position. The leafs are an ahl team and he is playing with a poor partner. Finishing with 35-40 pts this year will be a great feet, considering the talent around him. At age 21 he is already playing top mines and earning praise by both his coach and other players in the league. It makes all the sense in the world to sign him log term b4 he really breaks out.

 

[Deez Nuts]

Lol, How old was Klinger when he made his debut. He did it 5 years after being drafted. Rielly was playing in the nhl a in his d plus 2 year. Rielly has never been given the pp time and played with the talent quality that Klinberg or ghost have. Ghost plays a lot on the pp and over half his points come from there. He is playing with Simmons, Giroux, Vorachek on the pp. Two of those guys are elite players while simmons is a great pp player. He is also playing at the age of 22 as a rookie. Rielly has been really dangerous on the pp and in general over the past 3 games. He has set up players on more than oe occasion, hits post, and generated rebounds for players. His plus minus isn't a result of him being poor defensively or being caught out of position. The leafs are an ahl team and he is playing with a poor partner. Finishing with 35-40 pts this year will be a great feet, considering the talent around him. At age 21 he is already playing top mines and earning praise by both his coach and other players in the league. It makes all the sense in the world to sign him log term b4 he really breaks out.

Again, all valid points and I have already acknowledged that Rielly's point totals would be higher if he played on a better team with better team mates. But all of you refuse to explain why Rielly deserves 40-50% more per year than Klinberg or Gardiner? Also, ignored is the defensive aspect. Rielly's advanced stats show him to be below average. Meanwhile Gardiner has positive and upper tier defensive stats. They both play for the same team so was Phaneuf carrying him? I don't think so. An article was just posted pointing out Rielly's defensive struggles.
So right now we have an offensive defensemen who is just adequate defensively with "potential" to put up points. Why the need to throw him 6 mil?

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/1/28/10819480/up-for-extension-morgan-rielly

 

[hamzarocks]

Again, all valid points and I have already acknowledged that Rielly's point totals would be higher if he played on a better team with better team mates. But all of you refuse to explain why Rielly deserves 40-50% more per year than Klinberg or Gardiner? Also, ignored is the defensive aspect. Rielly's advanced stats show him to be below average. Meanwhile Gardiner has positive and upper tier defensive stats. They both play for the same team so was Phaneuf carrying him? I don't think so. An article was just posted pointing out Rielly's defensive struggles.
So right now we have an offensive defensemen who is just adequate defensively with "potential" to put up points. Why the need to throw him 6 mil?

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/1/28/10819480/up-for-extension-morgan-rielly

When klinkberg signed his deal, he had played one year, just one in the nhl. The stars took a risk and it payed out. Rielly has played 3 years before his contract and has shown growth in each year. We could bridge him and risk him raising his value to the 7-8 million range. Instead we can get him locked up long term from 5.5-6 million(or atleast attempt to get this deal done).

 

[Duke16]

When klinkberg signed his deal, he had played one year, just one in the nhl. The stars took a risk and it payed out. Rielly has played 3 years before his contract and has shown growth in each year. We could bridge him and risk him raising his value to the 7-8 million range. Instead we can get him locked up long term from 5.5-6 million(or atleast attempt to get this deal done).

And the latter option is very smart

 

[Canada4Gold]

Klingberg is a horrible comparable. He was only in the league 1 year compared to Rielly's 3, and his 1 big year he was 1 year older than Rielly is this year.

If we had kept Rielly in the minors this entire time, and then he came up next year and put up a Klingberg type season and then was up for a new contract then he'd be a good comparable, as it stand it's a horrible comparison.

 

[Deez Nuts]

When klinkberg signed his deal, he had played one year, just one in the nhl. The stars took a risk and it payed out. Rielly has played 3 years before his contract and has shown growth in each year. We could bridge him and risk him raising his value to the 7-8 million range. Instead we can get him locked up long term from 5.5-6 million(or atleast attempt to get this deal done).

Exactly my point, Klinberg put up big numbers in his rookie year and subsequently got paid. Meanwhile, Rielly has almost three years NHL experience and his numbers don't touch Klinberg's. Again, you are avoiding my question. Why does Rielly deserve 1.5 times what Gardiner or Klinberg make? Or why does he deserve to make over double per year what Murray just signed for? Sure, it is possible that he sign's a bridge deal and the Leafs are forced to pay up Subban style. But Subban showed big point totals and was a Norris candidate prior to signing. Rielly you want to pay based on potential or hope and in my opinion largely because of the colour of his jersey. Rielly is struggling defensively and is ranked 40th or so in scoring. Klinberg will probably score close to twice as many points as Rielly this year. You sign Rielly to an 8 year contract at 6-6.5 million, I think there is an equally good chance that a couple years later the term oops is used with respect to the contract, rather than what a steal.

 

[Canada4Gold]

again Klingberg last year was 1 year older than Rielly this year. Rielly next year could easily be as good better than Klingberg last year when the comparison would be fair, at their same age.

Unfortunately the 1 NHL year at age 22 and then RFA doesn't apply to Rielly because he didn't have said scenario. Hence the multiple people saying it's a bad comparison

 

[Golden_Jet]

Klingberg 121 gp 87 pts plus 13
Rielly 208 gp 79 pts minus 37

What will Rielly be using as comparables to get a 6 million plus deal, cause currently 10 defenseman get 6 million plus in the league.

 

[Deez Nuts]

Klingberg 121 gp 87 pts plus 13
Rielly 208 gp 79 pts minus 37

What will Rielly be using as comparables to get a 6 million plus deal, cause currently 10 defenseman get 6 million plus in the league.

Based on this thread, Rielly deserves 6-6.5 million based on his age, the colour of his jersey and draft position/hype. His awful defensive advanced stats are irrelevant and his mediocre point production is only due to his terrible team mates and an overall horrible team.

 

[cookie]

Based on this thread, Rielly deserves 6-6.5 million based on his age, the colour of his jersey and draft position/hype. His awful defensive advanced stats are irrelevant and his mediocre point production is only due to his terrible team mates and an overall horrible team.

Prime example of a bridge contract. He's shown flashes of being an excellent 200ft guy, but there's also nights where nothing goes his way. We need to see if he's consistently good and worth the 6M price tag.

 

[Deez Nuts]

Prime example of a bridge contract. He's shown flashes of being an excellent 200ft guy, but there's also nights where nothing goes his way. We need to see if he's consistently good and worth the 6M price tag.

Even though he has faced injury issues, Ryan Murray is a superior player defensively compared to Rielly and their point totals are not far off. He just signed for less than 3 mil, yet Leaf fans want to shell out over double that amount per year for Goldenboy. I don't get it.

 

[Menzinger]

Prime example of a bridge contract. He's shown flashes of being an excellent 200ft guy, but there's also nights where nothing goes his way. We need to see if he's consistently good and worth the 6M price tag.

That's what I want- a short term deal to get more data to see if he's going to develop into a true #1, or more of Letang type offensive centric top pairing guy. Or worst case scenario he plateaus as a top 4 guy rather than a top pairing player at all.