Speculation: Rielly's Next Contract

[Funk21]

Reilly is the key to our backend. He is turning 22 this spring and coming off his ELC. What do you do sign him to a bridge deal then the big bucks or Max 8 year term for a very reasonable cap hit till he is 30?

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[topched]

Reilly is the key to our backend. He is turning 22 this spring and coming off his ELC. What do you do sign him to a bridge deal the the big bucks or Max 8 year term for a very reasonable cap hit till he is 30?

I'd max him out personally. I'm all in on Rielly, I think he's a #3dman as it stands today, and he's getting better every game.

Does 5mil x 8years get it done? You're probably overpaying over the next 2 years, but he becomes a bargain in the important years when we intend to be contenders.

 

[hamzarocks]

5.25x8 or 4.25x2 than if he has a monster years like subban did than 8.75x8

 

[LaPlante94]

I think he'll get a contract similar to Gardiners

 

[HEAVY DUTY]

i'd prefer the jake gardiner type deal for him, if his salary is between 4.5M and 5M per over 5-6 years. i think this is the most beneficially to both parties.

if he wants more (6M+), then i'd do a bridge deal like kadri first and ask him to prove himself, and then sign him to a long-term extension.

 

[Durrr]

i'd prefer the jake gardiner type deal for him, if his salary is between 4.5M and 5M per over 5-6 years. i think this is the most beneficially to both parties.

if he wants more (6M+), then i'd do a bridge deal like kadri first and ask him to prove himself, and then sign him to a long-term extension.

Really bad idea, Rielly is already scoring the same ES pace as Subban did before he cashed in (in his 53 point season). If we give him a bridge and he gets top PP minutes with real offensive forward the Leafs are going to get nailed for the long term deal.

For people saying 4-5 million, good luck with that. Rielly is going to command between 6-7 on a longer term deal.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I would take a chance on him and go all in. Get him while he's "cheaper". If he pans out, we get a steal. If he doesn't, we still probably get a productive player in his 20's whose deal doesn't look *too* bad with inflation in 5 years.

 

[Torontonian]

5m by 8 years.. lock him up long term and try to get a good caphit on him, one of the reasons the blackhawks are were they are today is because they got their number 1 Dman locked up on a stupidly good cap hit

 

[showtime8]

I think that Rielly's camp will want to take a bridge deal.

And the reason why is that he's just started to play more in general (on the PK & PP) and he hasn't hit his full potential to always being the #1 guy on the power play.

Babcock realized it late in the game vs the Habs that Phaneuf is static on the blue line and doesn't give you much. I believe that Rielly will get more time on the power play as the season progresses and his numbers will start to increase.

But until that point that he's getting 3rd line power play minutes and his numbers won't increase. So the bridge deal is the smartest and when he's the go-to guy, his points will increase 10-fold and will want to cash in then.

 

[OMO7*]

Yeah because Rielly will take 5 per for 8 years... Jesus Christ this website man.

 

[613Leafer]

I don't think Rielly would sign an 8 year 5M deal. I think if 5M is the caphit you're offering, the longest he'd sign for would be 4-5 years.

He's playing against top offensive lines, high defensive zone starts, and is excelling both defensively and offensively. He's on pace for around 40 points despite only having 40 minutes of PP time on the year (there are 42 defensemen with 100+ PP minutes for comparison).

If he gets more PP time next season, he could be worth 6.5M+ fairly quickly. No reason for him to sign 8 years at a 5M caphit.

 

[Torontonian]

Yeah because Rielly will take 5 per for 8 years... Jesus Christ this website man.

cause anyone is asking you to post here..

 

[BayStreetBully]

I think that Rielly's camp will want to take a bridge deal.

And the reason why is that he's just started to play more in general (on the PK & PP) and he hasn't hit his full potential to always being the #1 guy on the power play.

Babcock realized it late in the game vs the Habs that Phaneuf is static on the blue line and doesn't give you much. I believe that Rielly will get more time on the power play as the season progresses and his numbers will start to increase.

But until that point that he's getting 3rd line power play minutes and his numbers won't increase. So the bridge deal is the smartest and when he's the go-to guy, his points will increase 10-fold and will want to cash in then.

On the other hand, a long-term deal meaning more guaranteed money is pretty tempting for a young player coming off his ELC. I think he'd be willing to trade-off some max money for security. And likewise, this is one time the Leafs should trade off some cost certainty with potential benefit.

 

[Woll Smoth]

I'd think the best scenario for both Rielly and the Leafs would be to go for a 5 year deal. I don't think Rielly would go for an 8 year contract at this point considering he's been held off the PP (lowering his bargaining power) and I don't think the Leafs would want him to pull a Subban after a bridge contract.

Gives Rielly some security, a lot of time to prove his worth on his next contract and doesn't eat away too many years of UFA status so he can cash in.

Gives the Leafs 5 years of a solid, and still improving defenseman, allows them to let him play to his potential without worrying about his contract for the next 5 years and doesn't anchor them for too long if for some odd reason he regresses after 2-3 years.

 

[showtime8]

Yeah because Rielly will take 5 per for 8 years... Jesus Christ this website man.

What's his market value?

 

[topched]

Yeah because Rielly will take 5 per for 8 years... Jesus Christ this website man.

I don't think Rielly would sign an 8 year 5M deal. I think if 5M is the caphit you're offering, the longest he'd sign for would be 4-5 years.

He's playing against top offensive lines, high defensive zone starts, and is excelling both defensively and offensively. He's on pace for around 40 points despite only having 40 minutes of PP time on the year (there are 42 defensemen with 100+ PP minutes for comparison).

If he gets more PP time next season, he could be worth 6.5M+ fairly quickly. No reason for him to sign 8 years at a 5M caphit.

Could Rielly wait and get more $ with term? Sure.

I guess internally, Rielly & his agent have to look what he'd make if the Leafs Nazem Kadri him and take him to arb every year. If he gets a ruling in the 4-4.5M range a few times, he may have been better served taking more money upfront. Getting overpaid the first couple of years and then being underpaid later in the deal.

5 is a nice round number, but philosophically I think it doesn't really matter. Principally, the Leafs should be looking to give him a max length deal if they believe in him. If you think he's going to be a 6-7M player in 2-3 years, you're going to offer him something less than that for him to take the deal now.

 

[Mystifo]

Personally I would be fighting tooth and nail to get a deal similar to what OEL signed. That way if he only turns out to be a player similar to Keith Yandle you are not hampered by an overpaid OFD. (Yes as of right now I believe Rielly will turn out like Keith Yandle.)

 

[member 147413]

5.5mil x 8

44million dollar contract cause players like doing that now

4 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 7 + 6

Simple, economical and makes sense for all parties

 

[showtime8]

On the other hand, a long-term deal meaning more guaranteed money is pretty tempting for a young player coming off his ELC. I think he'd be willing to trade-off some max money for security. And likewise, this is one time the Leafs should trade off some cost certainty with potential benefit.

I don't think that his play will drop off significantly, but my thinking was that Rielly is going to take a bet on his own skill and think that he can make more in another year than what he's getting right now.

Right now in terms of ice-time, points & age, he'd be looking at comparables of Sami Vatanen, Tory Krug & Mattias Ekholm. And in terms of contracts, Krug got 1.4M then 3.4...Vatanen got 1.262 & will be an RFA this year... Ekholm got 1.0375 and then 3.75.

The bridge deal the Leafs will offer in that ballpark of 3.4-3.75.

And I'm sure that the Leafs will have other factors to consider including the fact that he plays in such a huge market & there are no other defencemen in the system that could replace his production. So they'd be closer to 4.5-4.75.

I'd be okay with a 2 year deal worth $4M a year. Then he still has a year of RFA status to bargain with and you can buy out the remaining 8 years to keep him with the team.

 

[Drew75]

On the other hand, a long-term deal meaning more guaranteed money is pretty tempting for a young player coming off his ELC. I think he'd be willing to trade-off some max money for security. And likewise, this is one time the Leafs should trade off some cost certainty with potential benefit.

Agreed.

I think they need to do everything possible to skip the bridge deal. He's going to be worth $8-$10mil in 3 years or so, and that will more difficult to fit in.

Even $6 X 8 could be a good deal for both sides.

 

[613Leafer]

5 is a nice round number, but philosophically I think it doesn't really matter. Principally, the Leafs should be looking to give him a max length deal if they believe in him. If you think he's going to be a 6-7M player in 2-3 years, you're going to offer him something less than that for him to take the deal now.

But why does Rielly sign for 8 years instead of 4-5 years at that number? You're looking at it from the Leafs perspective and a fans perspective who wants to have a cheap long-term contract. Rielly would have to want to sign that, and I highly highly doubt he would.

The cap goes up over time, in 4-5 years, if he's a top pairing ~45-50 point defenseman, that's probably worth ~8-9M per season, maybe more if you consider the Subban contract and what the salary cap was when he signed vs what it will be in 5 years.

I don't think he signs for 7-8 years unless we offer him big incentive, like 6M+ caphit.

 

[StevieBlunder]

6.5M/8yrs.

I'm sold on Rielly, and I think managment is too. Let's demonstrate how playing into Babcoxk's system and playing for the team gets you rewarded. I see this kid as a future captain of our contntender.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

I would do 6M*8yr in a heartbeat for Rielly.

Edit: And in response to the guy above me, yeah I might go 6.5 as well.

 

[showtime8]

6.5M/8yrs.

I'm sold on Rielly, and I think managment is too. Let's demonstrate how playing into Babcoxk's system and playing for the team gets you rewarded. I see this kid as a future captain of our contntender.

As much as everyone loves Rielly in this market & I'm a huge fan of his, do you think that Rielly and Erik Karlsson are on the same level in terms of production?

I don't think that the Leafs should get too crazy with throwing around money. They've always done that. I think they should take a step back and think about where he fits around the league.

Here's some players that he could compare himself to:
TJ Brodie
Cam Fowler
Matthias Ekholm
Nick Leddy

Price himself in that bracket and the Leafs will be fine.

 

[Stand Witness]

I'd go 2, 4 or 8.

2 year contract will benefit Rielly to really prove himself and earn that big pay day for 8 years. The Leafs would have a good amount of control over him here.

4 years allows him to get paid some more with security (probably around 5M) but it also allows the Leafs to have 1 more year of before he is an eligible UFA (reason why I wouldn't do 5 unless I am wrong here).

8 years makes sense for the Leafs if he will accept a lower cap hit $ but I doubt it. He would be a steal at 5-6M 3 years down the road.