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RHD Dustin Byfuglien; A "Large" Statistical Breakdown... sorry

garret9

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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It's time for big Buff to get a big breakdown.

Byfuglien has played both forward and defense and sometimes both in the same season... So, that makes it a bit difficult to truly gauge him. I wasn't a huge follower of Chicago, so I'm just going to assume that behindthenet.com's information on which position he played in as the majority as truth (even though it's likely not).

Even Strength and PP Production
YEAR | POS | GP | ESTOI/60 | ESP/60 | ESG | ESA | PPTOI/60 | PPP/60 | PPG | PPA | SOG
2007| D/W|67|12.56| 1.28| 12| 07| 3.62| 2.97| 7| 10|163
2008| D/W|77|11.98| 1.43| 12| 12| 2.71| 1.72| 3| 04|202
2009| D/W|82|13.20| 1.16| 11| 12| 2.65| 3.04| 6| 05|211
2010| D |81|18.27| 1.01| 12| 17| 3.81| 3.89| 8| 16|347
2011| D |66|19.28| 1.27| 08| 25| 3.27| 4.73| 4| 15|223
The three Chicago years' ES TOI seems bit high for a 3rd line player, so I'm guessing he played some D even in 2009 (totally guessing). For a big guy who is "out of shape" playing an extra 7-8mins a game doesn't seem to slow him down. It's kind of scary how much offense Byfuglien could have created if he had played ~80 games. But, we knew about his offense prowess when I wrote this ->here<- (if you haven't read it check it out)... what about defensively? Well let's look at him overall.

Even Strength Advance Stats
YEAR | RelQoC | OZS | RelCorsi | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60 | SAon/60 | OnIceSv%
2007| -0.452| 50.6| 10.5| 1.24| 0.74| 2.97| 5.4 | 917
2008| 0.256| 53.8| -01.3| 0.86| 0.29| 1.72| 6.9 | 923
2009| 0.252| 50.8| -05.4| 1.66| 0.28| 3.04| 5.8 | 875
2010| 0.389| 55.6| 20.7| 1.17| 1.94| 3.89| 8.7 | 818
2011| 0.674| 53.3| 13.1| 0.84| 1.67| 4.73| 7.8 | 848
2007: Buff was sheltered around the levels of Stapleton and was looking pretty promising offensively. Unfortunately expectations were overly high as his sh% was inflated (first and only time he was in double digits). Defensively was decent but he was facing 4th line pylons.
2008: The next season Buff was given a tougher role, along the same competition level as Miettinen and Wellwood were last season. Both offensively and defensively he dropped severely.
2009: Similar role. Again he was getting beat bad, but this year a little luck shined on him and his sh% bump up a bit giving him some better offensive numbers.
2010: Trade to Atlanta and career year. At nearly half the sh% as 2007/2009 he put up better numbers. Of course his SA gets worse (going from Stanley Cup calibre team to Atlanta), but he was actually able to outshoot/score his opponents.
2011: Winnipeg and he ties his totals in 20 less games. His defensive numbers improve while facing the toughest competition matchups of his career but still not that pretty. His On-Ice SV% was better but still below that of the teams average. So what happened?

IMHO, the low SV% is from the same things that cause a lot of us to yell at our TVs when Buff was either caught pinching or made a poor defensive read. But, the question remains: "does the good outweigh the bad or vice versa?"
IMHO, as long as he's placed with someone who compliments him well and can cover for him when he makes mistakes... yes. Especially since all evidence points to him improving defensively (both verbally mentioned by himself, Noel and Chevy, and by stats shown above). That person to pair him with is Enstrom.

2011-12 Byfuglien with:
Partner | TOI | CF% | GF% | +/-
Enstrom |724 |0.558 |0.522 |+3
Oduya |210 |0.524 |0.571 |+2
Stuart |159 |0.489 |0.211 |-11
As you can see here, it appears Stuart almost single handily caused Byfuglien's negative +/-... Just like Stuart did with Bogosian (as seen in the Hainsey thread).
In 2010-11 the numbers are very similar but Oduya looks more like Stuart's.

Summary
Byfuglien is a top5 offensive D-man and is consistently getting better defensively, without sacrificing the offense. Keep him with Enstrom for as long as we have him, and you got magic.

PS... I don't think the good>bad gives him the right to get fat or do whatever he pleases, and I wish he'd lose a bit of weight personally, but I do believe that the good>bad and that's the most important bit.
Click to read more...
 
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allan5oh

allan5oh

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Oct 15, 2011
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The funny thing is when they had one of the little squirts come out with the jets at the beginning of the game, she said her favorite player was "bye fooglien". The whole place erupted in laughter.

Jokes on us.

BTW garret, nice work ;)
 
JetsHomer

JetsHomer

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
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Sara orleskey just tweeted that he was on the ice and appeared to be the same size as last year.
 

Peter Tagli Eddie

All 3 of them?
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Mathil8

Mathil8

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Peter Tagli Eddie said:
Joe Pascucci ‏@Pascucci015
I swear Dustin Byfuglien looks to be in better shape (weight wise) now then at any point last season

Dustin Byfuglien looking very much in shape skating with Jet team mates today with a green hockey stick pic.twitter.com/ME8Dlh5A

https://twitter.com/Pascucci015/status/289044701443682304/photo/1
Click to expand...

In the picture you can clearly see he's wearing a man's girdle #buffhate #fridgelockout :sarcasm:

Glad to see he appears to be in shape off the hop, we'll need it with bogo being potentially out for the first few weeks.
 
Flair Hay

Flair Hay

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Hey garret, is there any "tangible" way to compare what Buff and Bogo's numbers could have looked like last year if they essentially switched roles?

Your other posts regarding Bogo having big time offensive numbers for his situational use got me thinking.

Do you think Buff could be effective in a "shut down" role like Bogosian was last year? I'm basically thinking long term, whether he is the kind of guy that could be exposed defensively in the playoffs. Since it is far tougher to shelter players in the post season when the quality of competition goes up.
 
garret9

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Before I answer this question, I want to mention to everyone, I don't always consider everything I say as 100% truth or fects. Some is facts and some is opinions.
I highly incourage those with opposing views to speak up because that's the only possible way to find real truth and consensus.

bhay1987 said:
Hey garret, is there any "tangible" way to compare what Buff and Bogo's numbers could have looked like last year if they essentially switched roles?

Your other posts regarding Bogo having big time offensive numbers for his situational use got me thinking.

Do you think Buff could be effective in a "shut down" role like Bogosian was last year? I'm basically thinking long term, whether he is the kind of guy that could be exposed defensively in the playoffs. Since it is far tougher to shelter players in the post season when the quality of competition goes up.
Click to expand...

I can show numbers later if you want but I'll show what I saw.

RE: Buff vs Bogo for first pairing
I'm not fond of extrapolating data by moving someone from one usage to a different. We know that facing either tougher competition or changing a player's offensive zone starts affects peoples offensive numbers and Corsi. What we don't know is the extent of the effect and which one is stronger. IMHO everyone is different and it affects people differently...

What we do know is:
*Noel splits the match-ups between the 1st and second pair so we know that switching the pairs won't really change the competition levels

*Noel does specialize them (partially) by pushing them into each side of the arena. Now this isn't AV pushing like in Vancouver where Sedin sisters and Burrows get +70% and Malholtra is ~10%OZS. Byfuglien was only 53.3 and Bogosian was 49.1. Given a full year on the 2nd pairing, I'm sure Bogosian would have been around Hainsey's ~47%.

Well there were times where they were used the same:
*(the best) when Byfuglien was injured and Bogosian took many of Byfuglien's minutes and with Enstrom
*last ATL season Bogo was tried there
* on the power play

I'll do reverse order:
*Bogosian had a good PP his rookie year, but Byfuglien has been consistently epic... But, PP is a beast on its own
*in ATL Bogosian had some problems and even with Enstrom he was poor. So I feel it's unfair to use this.
*In WPG Bogosian was similar (but tiiiiny bit lower) Corsi wise. GF/GA was better with Enstrom (by a tiiiiny bit) but the sample size is very smal... this is where the decision making occirs...

Keep in mind with 2011-12 Enstrom-Bogosian's TOI is small which means sample size is small. Even at large sample sizes Corsi is more consistent than GF/GA, but at smaller sample sizes it's even more so...
So all indications are that Byfuglien was more effective on that first pairing but the results are close enough that it could be debated.
Now I do think think that good offence creates good defense by pushing the play out of the zone. But decision making and positioning I still prefer Bogosian there with a gap that I think isn't as dabatable as the other. Now as a defenseman Byfuglien has never been used full time in that role as a defenceman, so this is complete guess work from observation.



Now, IMHO, Byfuglien's development defensively isn't complete and will improve. Just like I don't think Bogosian has peeked yet. So, I do see a time where they can switch and the end result being better. But, currently I don't think it's there yet.
 
Last edited:
Flair Hay

Flair Hay

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garret9 said:
Before I answer this question, I want to mention to eberyone, I don't always consider everything I say as 100% truth or fects. Some is facts and some is opinions.
I highly incourage those with opposing views to speak up because that's the only possible way to find real truth and consensus.



I can show numbers later if you want but I'll show what I saw.

RE: Buff vs Bogo for first pairing
I'm not fond of extrapolating dat by moving someone from one usage to a different. We know that facing either tougher competition or changing a player's offensive zone starts affects peoples offensive numbers and Corsi. What we don't know is the extent of the effect and which one is stronger. IMHO everyone is different and it affects people differently...

What we do know is:
*Noel splits the match-ups between the 1st and second pair so we know that switching the pairs won't really change the competition levels

*Noel does specialize them (partially) by pushing them into each side of the arena. Now this isn't AV pushing like in Vancouver where Sedin sisters and Burrows get +70% and Malholtra is ~10%OZS. Byfuglien was only 53.3 and Bogosian was 49.1. Given a full year on the 2nd pairing, I'm sure Bogosian would have been around Hainsey's ~47%.

Well there were times where they were used the same:
*(the best) when Byfuglien was injured and Bogosian took many of Byfuglien's minutes and with Enstrom
*last season Bogo was tried there
* on the power play

I'll do reverse order:
*Bogosian had a good PP his rookie year, but Byfuglien has been consistently epic... But, PP is a beast on its own
*in ATL Bogosian had some problems and even with Enstrom he was poor. So I feel it's unfair to use this.
*In WPG Bogosian was similar (but tiiiiny bet lower) Corsi wise. GF/GA was better with Enstrom (by a tiiiiny bit) but the sample size is very smal... this is where the decision making occirs...

Keep in mind with 2011-12 Enstrom-Bogosian's TOI is small which means sample size is small. Even at large sample sizes Corsi is more consistent than GF/GA, but at smaller sample sizes it's even more so...
So all indications are that Byfuglien was more effective on that first pairing but the results are close enough that it could be debated.
Now I do think think that good offence creates good defense by pushing the play out of the zone. But decision making and positioning I still prefer Bogosian there with a gap that I think isn't as dabatable as the other. Now as a defenseman Byfuglien has never been used full time in that role as a defenceman, so this is complete guess work from observation.



Now, IMHO, Byfuglien's development defensively isn't complete and will improve. Just like I don't think Bogosian has peeked yet. So, I do see a time where they can switch and the end result being better. But, currently I don't think it's there yet.
Click to expand...

Thanks man. I kind of knew the answer when I asked defensively speaking. The explanation about what you can and can't interpret from the stats helps a lot though.
 
Bob E

Bob E

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Aug 20, 2011
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The fact that Atl almost gave up on Zach, and now he's potentially a very effective 1st pairing dman - and still developing - is scary, on alot of fronts.
 
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