Salary Cap: RFA Hertl's Contract $$$?

[CrypTic]

It's entirely dependent on the years. 2 years and he will likely be under 3.25. 4 years? Likely close to 3.5-4m? 6 years and maybe it's a bit higher still.

Even with Marleau staying (which I hope he does), they should have zero problem jettisoning Torres and Smith and the difference between one of them and Meier should cover the 2.6 million that we will need on top of Hertl's contract.

Yes, you could argue we need to replace both Torres and Smith, but the reality is we have 15 forwards rostered.

Also, I'd be open to replacing stalock with virtually any 600k goalie, opening up another million. If things get dicey, you move Wingels.

Other teams will be in a much worse spot than SJ.

My concern is that I'm not sure that Groesnick or Dell will be ready to be a backup. And I don't have confidence that we can pick up a good backup that will only cost 600k. E.g., Andersen is 1.15M this year but he will be an RFA at the end of the year so that is likely to go up. Khudobin is 2.250 this season but is a UFA at the end of the season. Johnson from Buffalo has been mentioned as a possible acquisition this year (if we upgrade on Stalock). He makes 1.3 now and is a UFA at the end of the season. I think we'd need to be lucky to get a decent backup for 600K.

If Marleau is traded and no cap dump/roster player with a similar cap hit is sent back, we should be in good shape. Otherwise, I think our need to upgrade at goaltending and D-men could cause some problems. I agree that other teams will have greater cap problems than the Sharks, assuming that Plattner will spend to the cap again (which is not a sure thing).

 

[CanadienShark]

Voted $3-3.5m. Wouldn't be upset with anything under $4m, especially if we could somehow pull off a long term deal (wishful dream, I know).

 

[Dicdonya]

Hertl is as important to the future of this team as anyone else on it. If he stays on the top line the rest of the year and keeps producing he's getting no less than 3.5mil. I do agree Doug will go for a three year contract to keep his RFA status in tact for the next negotiations.

If Hertl winds up with 50ish points, and top line minutes, I'll say 4-4.5 for three years is his contact. If he cools down some and gets 40ish points, and falls off the top line for some time, I'd say 3-3.5.

 

[stator]

I do agree Doug will go for a three year contract to keep his RFA status in tact for the next negotiations.

What are the rules for matching the offer sheet? Does it include contract duration?

I expect DW to get the contract extension in place before the season ends. Otherwise, I think Hertl picks up a lot of leveraging. Yes, I do believe he'll be one of the more popular RFA players with offer sheets.

It seems that GM's don't like the offer sheet route and is not that popular as a consequence, but I believe Hertl will be one of the exceptions. Even if it is to tie down DW on salary and cap as a means of competing.

 

[AgentCooper]

What are the rules for matching the offer sheet? Does it include contract duration?

I expect DW to get the contract extension in place before the season ends. Otherwise, I think Hertl picks up a lot of leveraging. Yes, I do believe he'll be one of the more popular RFA players with offer sheets.

It seems that GM's don't like the offer sheet route and is not that popular as a consequence, but I believe Hertl will be one of the exceptions. Even if it is to tie down DW on salary and cap as a means of competing.

Yes. Same term and cap hit and probably $ distribution per year as well.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It is absolutely impossible to make an accurate estimate without knowing what his production will be in the next 38 games. He could score 20 points, or he could score 40. That would make a huge difference in what he is paid.

 

[Bizz]

He'll probably get what Cheechoo & Michalek got. ~$3.75M/yr

 

[Led Zappa]

I usually disagree with my most of my compatriots, But 3-3.5.

 

[Grave]

4x4.

 

[zombie kopitar]

Are those figures cash or Dave and Buster's credit?

can we pay him in stuffed animals....


I'd wouldn't mind a deal of 4yr x 4m, seems reasonable for both sides

 

[Limekiller]

I think it will be around 3yrs x 3.75mil. Like someone else said, that gets his next contract to fall while he'd still be an RFA. If he keeps playing like this, he will easily be worth that, and might get more.

 

[TheDanceOfMaternity]

Looks like Wingels is the odd man out to keep all of our RFA's?

I still don't buy that Patty will be traded unless the team is really REALLY bad. I have been reading this site for 10 years and there have been rumors non-stop the entire time.

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

4yrs x 4mil

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

Give him a 3 year contract at 2.5 a year. 1 year to pad his stats with thornton and marleau still being the guys on the team. And 2 years to prove he is the new guy on the team.

I was thinking along these lines. Even a 2yr/4mil deal would be ok. Not sure Hertl has produced enough to deserve more than 2.5mil but the 3 yr deal is a steal should he continue to improve.

 

[Barrie22]

I was thinking along these lines. Even a 2yr/4mil deal would be ok. Not sure Hertl has produced enough to deserve more than 2.5mil but the 3 yr deal is a steal should he continue to improve.

Bridge contracts usually are steals in the final year of the contract if the player does what the team and the said player hope happens.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I would love to lock him up at $4.5x8, but DW doesn't really do long contracts. I'll guess $3.5 x 2 years.

 

[Episkey]

I would love to lock him up at $4.5x8, but DW doesn't really do long contracts. I'll guess $3.5 x 2 years.

This would be my guess as well. 2 years x $3.5 million bridge deal.

 

[Juxtaposer]

So I found an interesting new tool which is Similarity Scores by @MannyElk on twitter: http://war-on-ice.com/similarity-scores.html

I was running some different stat weightings on Hertl and I found some crazy ****:

Hertl this season, by heaviest weighting of G/60, A/60, P/60, iCF/60, Rel CF%, and a little weighting of Rel SCF%, TOI, and then making age important, the following players are 92% or more similar to Hertl's season this year (in order of most to least similarity, skipping a few names): 19 year old Nathan Mackinnon, 19 year old Gabriel Landeskog, 21 year old Patrice Bergeron, 21 year old Jakub Voracek, 20 year old Jordan Eberle, 20 year old Nathan Mackinnon, 22 year old Taylor Hall, 23 year old Zach Parise, 21 year old Brandon Dubinsky, 24 year old Jakub Voracek, 24 year old Evgeni Malkin, 24 year old Claude Giroux, 22 year old Nicklas Backstrom, 18 year old Taylor Hall, and 21 year old Anze Kopitar.

So yeah, nothing is guaranteed, but Hertl's semi-advanced statistics compare VERY well to 19-24 year old future superstars. Players who showed up on the top-30 list but that I skipped are: 21 year old Brendan Gallagher, 22 year old Tobias Rieder (?), 23 and 24 year old Scottie Upshall, 20 year old Sam Gagner, 22 year old Michael Frolik, 24 year old Mayson Raymond, 21 year old Mikael Backlund, 24 year old Steve Downie, 22 year old Nic Bergfors, 22 and 23 year old Nazem Kadri, 25 year old Michael Cammalleri, 24 year old Carl Hagelin, and 22 year old Reilly Smith. These are either anomalous seasons (Hagelin, Raymond, Gagner, Smith, etc.) secret possession stars (Backlund, Frolik, Downie), or pretty damn good players in their own right (Cammalleri, Kadri, Gallagher).

 

[Limekiller]

I would love to lock him up at $4.5x8, but DW doesn't really do long contracts. I'll guess $3.5 x 2 years.

That would be great for us, but I don't think Hertl would agree to that, or at least I highly doubt his agent would be on board with that. If he continues on his current development arc, he could easily be worth 6m+ 4-5 years from now, especially if the cap were to go up by then by any appreciable amount.

I wouldn't be surprised by any term from 2-4 years, and AAV of 2.5-4.25. I guess we'll see.

 

[sr228]

So I found an interesting new tool which is Similarity Scores by @MannyElk on twitter: http://war-on-ice.com/similarity-scores.html

I was running some different stat weightings on Hertl and I found some crazy ****:

Hertl this season, by heaviest weighting of G/60, A/60, P/60, iCF/60, Rel CF%, and a little weighting of Rel SCF%, TOI, and then making age important, the following players are 92% or more similar to Hertl's season this year (in order of most to least similarity, skipping a few names): 19 year old Nathan Mackinnon, 19 year old Gabriel Landeskog, 21 year old Patrice Bergeron, 21 year old Jakub Voracek, 20 year old Jordan Eberle, 20 year old Nathan Mackinnon, 22 year old Taylor Hall, 23 year old Zach Parise, 21 year old Brandon Dubinsky, 24 year old Jakub Voracek, 24 year old Evgeni Malkin, 24 year old Claude Giroux, 22 year old Nicklas Backstrom, 18 year old Taylor Hall, and 21 year old Anze Kopitar.

So yeah, nothing is guaranteed, but Hertl's semi-advanced statistics compare VERY well to 19-24 year old future superstars. Players who showed up on the top-30 list but that I skipped are: 21 year old Brendan Gallagher, 22 year old Tobias Rieder (?), 23 and 24 year old Scottie Upshall, 20 year old Sam Gagner, 22 year old Michael Frolik, 24 year old Mayson Raymond, 21 year old Mikael Backlund, 24 year old Steve Downie, 22 year old Nic Bergfors, 22 and 23 year old Nazem Kadri, 25 year old Michael Cammalleri, 24 year old Carl Hagelin, and 22 year old Reilly Smith. These are either anomalous seasons (Hagelin, Raymond, Gagner, Smith, etc.) secret possession stars (Backlund, Frolik, Downie), or pretty damn good players in their own right (Cammalleri, Kadri, Gallagher).

I've been playing with that tool (and some others) as well, they're awesome. Hertl has been really, realy, REALLY good this season, even before he started regularly producing.

I'm guessing he signs a bridge deal and I'd expect it'll be 2yrs somewhere between $6-7.5mil (total).

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I would love to lock him up at $4.5x8, but DW doesn't really do long contracts. I'll guess $3.5 x 2 years.

I get it. But if you have a chance to get Hertl signed to a $4.5x8 contract and don't do it on principle, you are not a very good GM. There are always players that you will NEED to make exceptions for. Hertl is going to be one of them.

 

[AgentCooper]

I would love to lock him up at $4.5x8, but DW doesn't really do long contracts. I'll guess $3.5 x 2 years.

I see your point, and I'd love that too. But if Hertl's agent let him sign that, he should be fired.

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

Some of you advocating a 300% raise have me baffled.. What are you using as justification? 2yr bridge deal makes the most sense imo. 2yr/5mil. Hertl gets an 150%+ raise for his efforts. If his progression continues I'm sure his next deal will be well deserved. Unless he plays lights out, I see his contract after his bridge deal being in the 4yr/16mil range.

 

[Dicdonya]

Some of you advocating a 300% raise have me baffled.. What are you using as justification? 2yr bridge deal makes the most sense imo. 2yr/5mil. Hertl gets an 150%+ raise for his efforts. If his progression continues I'm sure his next deal will be well deserved. Unless he plays lights out, I see his contract after his bridge deal being in the 4yr/16mil range.

Contracts are not negotiated based on how much you already made, thats the first problem you need to get over. Contracts are based on how much other comparable players,statistically, made at or around the same age you are, then take into account how many years, if any of those years are UFA years, and what importance you have to the team.

By your logic RNH got paid like 600% more than his ELC contract, thats INSANE. Except its not because he had scored like 56 or so points by the time he was off his ELC, and was beyond important to the Oilers to keep.

Also your 4x4 contract after his bridge contract is most likely going to be an insulting offer by the time that rolls around. As jux already pointed out, there is very VERY strong leverage Hertls agent can use even now to say hertl deserves some decent money. If he progresses and becomes anywhere near a 50+ point, positive player, and possesion beast, 4 mil is not in the conversation unless hes a saint and takes a major discount.

Looking at comparable contracts, in hertls age range at the time they were signed, and then looking at how many points they produced, Id say his RFA only range is somewhere from 3.5-4.5 mil. Couturier just signed a 4.333 contract, and they are pretty similar in terms of age/usage/points production, and thats only if hertl cools off his new 1st line pace. If hertl hits 50 pts this year, which is within reason based on hows hes been playing on the 1st line, I doubt he gets any less that 4mil.

 

[Gilligans Island]

I don't think I'd agree that Couturier is the best comp. He had 4 seasons under his belt w/ slightly higher production and I'll guess higher qualcomp. I have to look around but after this season, Hertl will have had 2-1/2 seasons under his belt. Like MarleauApologist said, it will really depend on how Hertl does the rest of the season. I can see a 2 yr bridge at this point but reserve the right to change my mind if Hertl continues to produce with the Joes.