Salary Cap: RFA Hertl's Contract $$$?

[stator]

Polling what do you think Hertl's next contract will be worth, and who in the NHL do you see is comparable to Hertl to determine market value?

Looking at contracts of comparable players and Hertl's statistics, Matt Beleskey has a 5 year contract at $19M, with an annual cap hit of $3.8M.

I think Hertl's next contract will be upwards to $4M annual in something like a $20M/5 year contract, probably more if he concludes this season erasing doubts about his knee. Less, if knee issues pop up.

With the Ducks and Coyotes, just to name a few teams, having significant cap space, I could see teams doing an offer sheet for Hertl.

Then, if we look at the Sharks contracts, we can easily predict $6M of cap space coming free with Torres (UFA), Stalock (UFA), Brown (UFA), and Demers (retained) freeing up. Only Demers represents 100% freed up since if Torres and Stalock exit, Sharks still need to fill.

Couple that with Neito, Tennyson, and DeMelo also being RFA at the end of this season, I see DW in a rock and a hard spot with signing Hertl unless some big salary player is traded.

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[Led Zappa]

I just don't see Hertl signing an offer sheet.

 

[stator]

I just don't see Hertl signing an offer sheet.

Then what would be his next Sharks contract be worth?

 

[hohosaregood]

8 year/$6m

 

[Led Zappa]

Then what would be his next Sharks contract be worth?

Also, Burish, Demers, Torres and Smith come off the books next year for about 4.5M in space.

I'm not good at guessing contracts, but 4M doesn't seem completely out of whack, but his point totals aren't great right now and that seems to carry A LOT of weight on next contracts, so...

 

[stator]

Also, Burish, Demers, Torres and Smith come off the books next year for about 4.5M in space.

I'm not good at guessing contracts, but 4M doesn't seem completely out of whack, but his point totals aren't great right now and that seems to carry A LOT of weight on next contracts, so...

Burish comes off the books after 2016-17 as reported in hockeyscap.com.

 

[AgentCooper]

Voted 3.5-4. I could see him taking a 2-year "prove it" contract, and then really cashing in after.

 

[LadyStanley]

With the NHLPA membership upset with the now 20% escrow, in part due to the falling Canadian dollar, it is not out of the question that the union refuses to implement the 5% "escalator" and the cap COULD fall from the current $71.4m.


That'll make all contracts squeezed.

 

[Led Zappa]

Burish comes off the books after 2016-17 as reported in hockeyscap.com.

Missed that, thanks. Still quite a bit coming off the books in dead space.

 

[stator]

With the NHLPA membership upset with the now 20% escrow, in part due to the falling Canadian dollar, it is not out of the question that the union refuses to implement the 5% "escalator" and the cap COULD fall from the current $71.4m.


That'll make all contracts squeezed.

Yeah, I thought I would never say this anywhere outside of the gas pumps, but screw OPEC.

However, there are 8 teams being predicted to have more than $7M of cap space at the end of the season. Two of those are the Ducks and Yotes.

 

[stator]

Missed that, thanks. Still quite a bit coming off the books in dead space.

I missed Smith because he's been invisible this year, but it's not a lot in my view consider those roster positions need to be filled. Case in point is Stalock and the likelihood of finding a quality backup goalie for near league minimum.

I made a mistake and switched Tierney for Tennyson in the original post.

 

[CrypTic]

Missed that, thanks. Still quite a bit coming off the books in dead space.

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see much $$$ coming off the books. OP outlined it well IMO: Demers (1.2M) comes completely off. Torres (2M), Brown (1.2), Stalock (1.6), Zubrus (600k), and Smith (550k) come off but you need to replace all but one of them so I don't see much money freed up there.

As others have mentioned, I'm not sure that the cap will go up bc of the falling CAD. Didn't they have to use the escalator last season to keep it from falling? Either they did or it would have stayed flat but I know for a while at least the salary cap was going to fall (for this season) if the players didn't elect to use the escalator.

 

[Led Zappa]

I called up Goldy and Meier and Grosenick and signed DeMelo at 1.2M. We need Nieto, Hertl and one more forward and a 7th D and we have 7,780,832 to do that. If Hertl is signed at 4 then we have 3.78 for 2F and 1 D.

https://www.hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/team/58627

 

[hockeyball]

I called up Goldy and Meier and Grosenick and signed DeMelo at 1.2M. We need Nieto, Hertl and one more forward and a 7th D and we have 7,780,832 to do that. If Hertl is signed at 4 then we have 3.78 for 2F and 1 D.

https://www.hockeyscap.com/armchair-gm/team/58627

Assume Marleau will be gone and the cap space is a non-issue. If Thornton goes too (small chance he wants to go after Marleau goes) then we are getting near the cap floor heh.

 

[Helistin]

Bridge or long term? I'm guessing bridge , 2 years 3-3.5 million per.

 

[ScottyDont]

Bridge or long term? I'm guessing bridge , 2 years 3-3.5 million per.

This. I don't understand all this 4 mil plus talk. Yes he's been playing well but he's only been putting up points just lately. If he produces outside of the Thornton/Pass line that's another story, but as of now he hasn't earned a bigger paycheck. Pay him more then Wingels and wait till Thornton and Marleau are gone or sign cheaper contracts

 

[Barrie22]

Give him a 3 year contract at 2.5 a year. 1 year to pad his stats with thornton and marleau still being the guys on the team. And 2 years to prove he is the new guy on the team.

 

[Coily]

The price of players is going up each year. I'll say $4m.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't know why you compared Beleskey to Hertl at all. They're not comparable by contract status. Hertl's not going to get 4 million per if he finishes the season with 20 goals or less on an RFA contract. That only happens if they re-sign him for max term. It wouldn't be like DW to buy-in to Hertl like that and it would be pointless because a six year contract for Hertl (about max DW would give), would only give DW one or two years of UFA years. No reason to push for those since Hertl hasn't had such outstanding numbers to justify such a contract.

Hertl will have four years until UFA after this season. They're best bet is to come to a three year deal and it'll probably be worth around 2.75-3 mil per season.

 

[magic school bus]

Under $2M. The guy barely scores.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Given his current production, I think / hope a 2-yr bridge deal around $2.75M per.

And the Ducks have plenty of RFAs to sign so their cap space next season isn't as much as it appears, especially if the cap stays flat.

 

[matt trick]

It's entirely dependent on the years. 2 years and he will likely be under 3.25. 4 years? Likely close to 3.5-4m? 6 years and maybe it's a bit higher still.

Even with Marleau staying (which I hope he does), they should have zero problem jettisoning Torres and Smith and the difference between one of them and Meier should cover the 2.6 million that we will need on top of Hertl's contract.

Yes, you could argue we need to replace both Torres and Smith, but the reality is we have 15 forwards rostered.

Also, I'd be open to replacing stalock with virtually any 600k goalie, opening up another million. If things get dicey, you move Wingels.

Other teams will be in a much worse spot than SJ.

 

[Gilligans Island]

It's entirely dependent on the years. 2 years and he will likely be under 3.25. 4 years? Likely close to 3.5-4m? 6 years and maybe it's a bit higher still.

Even with Marleau staying (which I hope he does), they should have zero problem jettisoning Torres and Smith and the difference between one of them and Meier should cover the 2.6 million that we will need on top of Hertl's contract.

Yes, you could argue we need to replace both Torres and Smith, but the reality is we have 15 forwards rostered.

Also, I'd be open to replacing stalock with virtually any 600k goalie, opening up another million. If things get dicey, you move Wingels.

Other teams will be in a much worse spot than SJ.

Right, cap space won't be an issue for the SHarks. There's still $1.19M coming off the books for Demers' retention.

 

[bigwillie]

Are those figures cash or Dave and Buster's credit?

 

[Jwec]

I would like to see Hertl signing 3 year bridge deal with average about 3.5 million. And I think our cap is not going to be an issue. Torres, Smith, Stalock and Demers retention comes of the books and then we should have space to sign him easily.