Revisiting the Schmidt “Decision”

[Ridley Simon]

So I’ve seen a lot of handwringing about losing Schmidt. It’s been going on since it happened, and reached a new in season crescendo the other day in one of the game threads.

I get it, it’s upsetting. Caps could have him as Carlson’s partner, Bowey in Hershey as next call up, and Chorney as the real 8th d-man. Would be good stuff (ignoring that Schmidt’s salary wouldn’t fit right now, but we can come back to that.).

We all know the only way to have guaranteed 88’s return would have been one of two ways:

1. Protect him over Orlov (or Carlson or Niskanen). That’s a non starter.
2. Go 4-4 with the skaters. Ah, that is where it gets interesting. Let’s assume they protect 8-19-92.

So we have one more forward to protect.
Johansson?
Wilson?
Eller?
Burakovsky?

Forget the rest.

I don’t think they wanted to deal Marge. That only happened after all the contracts. They saw him staying, IMO. So I’d assume he’d have been the 4th F?

I would have left Willy available, as I stated a few times. That mindset would have cratered on me, based on his development. Eller has been awesome, and the 3c depth has certainly allowed this team to play thru some massive unexpected cold spells from both 19 and 92. Lars has been huge...where would they be without him? No one in their right mind would have wanted Bura exposed with his age, previous seasons numbers, etc etc.

So....as we can all see. Caps were screwed no matter what. They did ok w the Marge deal as that 2nd will be a top 40 pick (or close), and a 3rd has solid value. So say GMGM takes Marge if they left him unprotected. We have Schmidt, some players gone due to fitting Nate’s salary in, and no picks. That’s a meh. Oh and Djoos probably doesn’t develop like he has with Nate in front of him.

So while I know GMBM got bombed for it. Was their really a better alternative? (And save the “well, he should have incentived George to take Grubby!!” stuff. That has been written about quite a bit, that would have been expensive. Prob 1st rounder type cost).

What would you have done?

Click to read more...

 

[hockeykicker]

they made the right decision. just had to hope they didnt take schmidt and went with grubauer

 

[traparatus]

I would have talked Vegas into taking Orpik packaged with Johansson. You will have to wait for years for picks that we got for Johansson to turn into anything and chances are those two picks will still not produce a Schmidt level player.

 

[hockeykicker]

I would have talked Vegas into taking Orpik packaged with Johansson. You will have to wait for years for picks that we got for Johansson to turn into anything and chances are those two picks will still not produce a Schmidt level player.

apparently they made a massive offer (forgot exact words isabelle said) but mcphee made it known he was going to charge the caps extra compared to other teams

also

 

[traparatus]

apparently they made a massive offer (forgot exact words isabelle said) but mcphee made it known he was going to charge the caps extra compared to other teams

also

It doesn't matter if Vegas really wanted Schmidt. We didn't have to expose him.

 

[Hivemind]

Everyone saw the salary cap writing on the wall ahead of time. Everyone except GMBM, apparently. They had months to negotiate with Oshie, Kuznetsov and Orlov before July 1st. They should not have been surprised by their contract demands.

Protect 4+4. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Schmidt.

Execute the Johansson trade before the expansion draft. New Jersey made another such trade before the expansion draft (for Mirco Mueller, who they didn't qualify). It was certainly viable.

 

[hockeykicker]

It doesn't matter if Vegas really wanted Schmidt. We didn't have to expose him.

but your saying the way to not expose him was to offer vegas mojo and orpik?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Everyone saw the salary cap writing on the wall ahead of time. Everyone except GMBM, apparently. They had months to negotiate with Oshie, Kuznetsov and Orlov before July 1st. They should not have been surprised by their contract demands.

Protect 4+4. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Schmidt.

Execute the Johansson trade before the expansion draft. New Jersey made another such trade before the expansion draft (for Mirco Mueller, who they didn't qualify). It was certainly viable.

So you are ok with losing Wilson. Or Eller? Knowing George -- probably Wilson. (And Tex will beat you to death his his NASCAR tire iron for that thought process, LOL)

And I don't think anyone saw Kuz at his number and Orlov at his. Least, not many. Oshie was about right)

 

[traparatus]

but your saying the way to not expose him was to offer vegas mojo and orpik?

No. The way not to expose Schmidt was simply not to expose him. Caps just had to get to a negotiating point where Vegas knew that there was no way they could get Schmidt.

Johansson and Orpik is a good haul for an expansion team. Hell, if it's not enough send a pick or a prospect along to make it enough.

 

[Hivemind]

So you are ok with losing Wilson. Or Eller? Knowing George -- probably Wilson. (And Tex will beat you to death his his NASCAR tire iron for that thought process, LOL)

And I don't think anyone saw Kuz at his number and Orlov at his. Least, not many. Oshie was about right)

No matter what happened, we were going to lose a player we would prefer to keep. I'm glad we kept Wilson, but if you offered me a Wilson for Schmidt trade, I'd accept it in a heartbeat.

Losing Eller would be no big deal. I'm still not convinced the Graovac trade was even necessary. They could have exposed Eller even with the protection scheme they had, and Vegas would have taken Schmidt or Grubauer over him. Going 4+4 would even save them from needing to make that Graovac trade.


edit; Regarding the Kuz and Orlov numbers, management SHOULD have seen those coming. They have more information than any of us. They should have been talking to their agents for weeks, if not months, in advance. Nothing that happened in June or July should have been surprising to GMBM.

Also, Orlov wasn't that far off from what many of us thought after the Gostibehere deal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No. The way not to expose Schmidt was simply not to expose him. Caps just had to get to a negotiating point where Vegas knew that there was no way they could get Schmidt.

Johansson and Orpik is a good haul for an expansion team. Hell, if it's not enough send a pick or a prospect along to make it enough.

Zero Chance McPhee was bailing them out on Orpik. Maybe if we throw in a 1st +. Orpik + Marge + 1st in exchange for Nate? Huge pass.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What really deep teams didn’t protect the max number of players?

 

[traparatus]

Zero Chance McPhee was bailing them out on Orpik. Maybe if we throw in a 1st +. Orpik + Marge + 1st in exchange for Nate? Huge pass.

There is a good chance you are right.

I would have pushed HARD to get rid of Orpik's contract. Orpik+Johansson+1st or Orpik+Johansson+Grubauer. It seems like Vegas would take one of these deals but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think McPhee was looking for every chance to screw Leonsis back.

 

[HTFN]

Personally, I'd have exposed Burakovsky in a heartbeat. His season to show improvement was last year, for me, so with low confidence in his developmental arc, I think his draft pedigree and potential would have been the perfect bait. Maybe he thrives the way Schmidt did, maybe not, but either way I don't think the team ever stood to lose as much there positionally (especially since Vrana has impressed).

 

[Slateman]

Schmidt > Carlson

 

[Roshi]

I think Vegas takes Johansson if left unprotected.
Id rather have Schmidt than 2+3 picks. I think MacLellan would too.

Im assuming there was a lot of things going on behind the curtains and GMBM had stuff worked out, that didnt go through after all.
Either that, or then he just didnt know what was going on. Either way, it did not look good on him.

Hope he makes it up on TDL/next summer. He had solid record going on until the ED started.

 

[g00n]

No matter what happened, we were going to lose a player we would prefer to keep. I'm glad we kept Wilson, but if you offered me a Wilson for Schmidt trade, I'd accept it in a heartbeat.

Losing Eller would be no big deal. I'm still not convinced the Graovac trade was even necessary. They could have exposed Eller even with the protection scheme they had, and Vegas would have taken Schmidt or Grubauer over him. Going 4+4 would even save them from needing to make that Graovac trade.


edit; Regarding the Kuz and Orlov numbers, management SHOULD have seen those coming. They have more information than any of us. They should have been talking to their agents for weeks, if not months, in advance. Nothing that happened in June or July should have been surprising to GMBM.

Also, Orlov wasn't that far off from what many of us thought after the Gostibehere deal.

I think you're operating with the benefit of hindsight. But I'm pretty sure there were developments with both the NHL and KHL rumors that made the prices for those players go up at the last minute. And with all the uncertainty about the cap and two drafts along with the season results it is very easy to say NOW that they should have done X with the Y days they had but it was not that simple. We also don't know how much talk was actually done vs what was revealed. It takes two sides (that involve many pieces and family members) to sign or even negotiate a deal.

Can you show us where there was "months in advance" indication, from you or anyone else, that Kuz, Orlov, and Oshie were coming in at those numbers? I don't mean mining the data for retroactively appropriate comparables, I mean real talk about numbers for those players?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Schmidt > Carlson

Yeah right? Should've exposed Carlson instead

 

[Langway]

Don't forget that a significant component of their apparent strategy was just to wait it out and hope Vegas took Grubauer instead. It was a very risky decision either way. One fact that backs up passing on Schmidt was that they still didn't have cap room for him after dealing Johansson anyway so more changes would have been needed (although Grubauer->Copley or not bringing back Connolly may have done it). Maybe McPhee was determined to exact as much from Washington as he could and wouldn't have hashed out a deal prior to the freeze but it's not at all clear whether MacLellan pursued that seriously enough. Part of it was maybe due to them not having much in the way of futures to entice Vegas with but it was one disorganized strategy among many this past off-season.

With the benefit of hindsight you would have risked leaving Burakovsky unprotected instead but they should have worked out a deal. Johansson+some okay futures similar to the 2020 2nd they got for Fleury or whatever. It's easy to say but, again, they never came across as having done enough not to be at the mercy of whatever Vegas wanted to do. There was leverage against them but I don't think they really worked the problem. In their minds it seemed like a 50/50 thing when it probably wasn't close. Djoos has been pretty solid but anything that results in less minutes for Orpik is a good thing and this move alone changed their ability to do that.

 

[maacoshark]

After thinking about it. Protecting 4 forwards and 4 dmen may have been the way to go. I would have kept 8 19 92 and 43 upfront. So the extra guys unprotected would have been Eller Johansson and Burakovsky. We were only going to lose one of them. We lost Johansson anyway and Burakovsky doesn't look like would have been a big loss.
If we wanted to protect Schmidt as one of 3 dmen. I think the guy to leave unprotected would have been Niskanen because of age and salary.
I have to admit I not that high on Schmidt (or wasn't) but given the opportunity and minutes in Vegas have shown that he is a legit top 4

 

[ovikovy817]

After thinking about it. Protecting 4 forwards and 4 dmen may have been the way to go. I would have kept 8 19 92 and 43 upfront. So the extra guys unprotected would have been Eller Johansson and Burakovsky. We were only going to lose one of them. We lost Johansson anyway and Burakovsky doesn't look like would have been a big loss.
If we wanted to protect Schmidt as one of 3 dmen. I think the guy to leave unprotected would have been Niskanen because of age and salary.
I have to admit I not that high on Schmidt (or wasn't) but given the opportunity and minutes in Vegas have shown that he is a legit top 4

Pretty sure MoJo would be the 4th protected and not Willy.

 

[maacoshark]

Pretty sure MoJo would be the 4th protected and not Willy.

Why would we protect Johansson if we were shopping him. You could be right though.

 

[traparatus]

It's as if MacLellan woke up one day in July, looked at the cap table and said 'Holy s**t, we are $4m over!!! How come nobody has told me about this?'

We where going to lose a good player to Vegas, no matter what. We also had to go through an obvious and fully predictable cap crunch. We could have turned expansion draft negative into a cap resolution positive. If Vegas was not interested in Johansson and you cannot sweeten the pot enough to get them to take Orpik, trade Niskanen before the expansion draft and take care of your cap problem. A team like Toronto would have given up good young assets and chances are it's not on Niskanen's no-trade list.

Niskanen is getting $5.75m, Schmidt is getting $2.25m. That's a Marcus Johansson right there. Niskanen MIGHT be a better player than Schmidt but the difference between them sure as hell is not Johansson.

Instead, we lost Schmidt for nothing, Johansson for half price, we are still carrying that ridiculous Orpik contract and we have NO CAP ROOM. It's this last one that's really getting on my nerves. If you are losing a good player for nothing, at least set your team up for future success.

 

[Hivemind]

I think you're operating with the benefit of hindsight. But I'm pretty sure there were developments with both the NHL and KHL rumors that made the prices for those players go up at the last minute. And with all the uncertainty about the cap and two drafts along with the season results it is very easy to say NOW that they should have done X with the Y days they had but it was not that simple. We also don't know how much talk was actually done vs what was revealed. It takes two sides (that involve many pieces and family members) to sign or even negotiate a deal.

Can you show us where there was "months in advance" indication, from you or anyone else, that Kuz, Orlov, and Oshie were coming in at those numbers? I don't mean mining the data for retroactively appropriate comparables, I mean real talk about numbers for those players?

Read my post again. I said management should have been negotiating "months in advance," not that any of us had the specific numbers pegged that far (although just about everyone here foresaw a cap crunch happening). As I said previously, management should have far more information than any of us outsiders have to work with, which should include ballpark figures from at least initial and pre-emptive talks with agents. The same type of talks that Bobby Mac has indicated took place sometime over the holidays between GMBM and Carlson's agent.

Is this simple? No, of course not. Am I using hindsight? Absolutely. But I hold GMBM, or anyone who's paid millions of dollars per year to professionally run a hockey team, to a higher standard than I hold message board posters. These are the types of complicated situations that NHL managers deal with on an annual basis. This is why they're paid the big bucks, to map out these possibilities and understand how to proceed. Management should not have been surprised about Kuznetsov or Oshie or Orlov's ask prices. Other front offices were able to navigate around the pitfalls of the expansion draft much better than the Capitals were.

FWIW, here's one of the posts where I mapped out the upper/lower bounds of Kuznetsov's contract based on other young stars. He came in at the top end of the range, but still within the range I laid out.