Revisiting the Schmidt “Decision”

[CapitalsCupReality]

And if those asks went up late in the negotiating process? Not saying that it happened, but as the rest of the market worked itself out, those prices could have come up from initial conversations.

Also, you have to compare the Caps to other equally deep teams with a REAL surplus of top flight players and some big players RFAs.

Just saying “others did better” rings hollow to me.

We also had the issue to deal with of GMGM likely WANTING to screw them over.

I’ll say this, it bothers me when I hear things like GMBM hasn’t begun discussions with Carlson (for example). I don’t get the waiting game to even float preliminary #s.

 

[g00n]

Read my post again. I said management should have been negotiating "months in advance," not that any of us had the specific numbers pegged that far (although just about everyone here foresaw a cap crunch happening). As I said previously, management should have far more information than any of us outsiders have to work with, which should include ballpark figures from at least initial and pre-emptive talks with agents. The same type of talks that Bobby Mac has indicated took place sometime over the holidays between GMBM and Carlson's agent.

Is this simple? No, of course not. Am I using hindsight? Absolutely. But I hold GMBM, or anyone who's paid millions of dollars per year to professionally run a hockey team, to a higher standard than I hold message board posters. These are the types of complicated situations that NHL managers deal with on an annual basis. This is why they're paid the big bucks, to map out these possibilities and understand how to proceed. Management should not have been surprised about Kuznetsov or Oshie or Orlov's ask prices. Other front offices were able to navigate around the pitfalls of the expansion draft much better than the Capitals were.

FWIW, here's one of the posts where I mapped out the upper/lower bounds of Kuznetsov's contract based on other young stars. He came in at the top end of the range, but still within the range I laid out.

Are we sure many other teams did better? What do the standings currently say? How have the fill-in guys performed? Decent value?

More importantly, how does one begin negotiations months in advance? Who starts it? That has an effect on the entire process. Are we expecting the Caps to start with a number? That's usually weak bargaining position unless you're pretty damn sure of the market value. What if they offered a number in April that turned out to be too high for the market in July? What if one of those guys had a horrible injury in the playoffs?

It's too much hindsight and operating from the perspective that the pros should get everything exactly right because they're pros. The other guys across the table are pros, too, and they're trying to get the best deal possible.

 

[Hivemind]

Are we sure many other teams did better? What do the standings currently say? How have the fill-in guys performed? Decent value?

More importantly, how does one begin negotiations months in advance? Who starts it? That has an effect on the entire process. Are we expecting the Caps to start with a number? That's usually weak bargaining position unless you're pretty damn sure of the market value. What if they offered a number in April that turned out to be too high for the market in July? What if one of those guys had a horrible injury in the playoffs?

It's too much hindsight and operating from the perspective that the pros should get everything exactly right because they're pros. The other guys across the table are pros, too, and they're trying to get the best deal possible.

Please elaborate on your standings argument, because to me it certainly seems that you're implying that because the Capitals have a lot of standings points means they handled the expansion draft well. And I know you're smarter than that.

But, yes, we know other teams did better at navigating the pitfalls of the expansion draft. There were teams with both more and better assets that Schmidt exposed and they managed to avoid giving them up. Minnesota had all of Dumba, Scandella, and Eric Staal exposed, and didn't have to give up any of them. Sure, they gave up a good prospect in Tuch, but they avoided losing the three most significant win-now assets (one of which also has the most long-term upside of any of them). Anaheim had both Vatanen and Manson exposed, and avoided giving either of them up by giving up Shea Theodore instead. They managed to protect their current top 4 defensemen by giving up a potential top 4 defenseman, a strong win-now move for a team with aspirations of near-future contention (one of those defensemen later turned into a quality center via trade). As much as I like Schmidt, when compared to guys like Vatanen, Manson, and Dumba, he's a less appealing asset. And those teams managed to avoid losing those superior assets in the expansion draft.

Getting a feel for the framework of a potential deal in advance isn't the same as signing that deal in advance or vacating all of your bargaining power. It's having a realistic conversation with a player and their agent about the type of deal that they want. If starting in advance was such as bad idea, GMBM wouldn't be talking with Carlson's agent already. Jonathan Marchessault wouldn't have just extended with Vegas, nor would any of the other mid-season contracts get signed. Getting an idea of where parties stand ahead of team-altering decisions like the expansion draft is good management strategy. I'm not expect that GMBM win every single negotiation, I'm expecting that the front office gather all the information possible (including contract frameworks) and map out the impacts on the team. It's something they very clearly did a poor job of this season, as demonstrated by unexpectedly losing Schmidt and their behind-the-8 ball trade of Johansson.

 

[g00n]

It depends on the player and the agent. Even starting the talks has implications. And we don't know how much both sides knew or how motivated they were. We weren't in the room. It's pointless to nitpick it now.

 

[g00n]

Maybe someone should write them a concerned fan letter asking whether or not they did their jobs right? That should clear it up.

 

[maacoshark]

Maybe someone should write them a concerned fan letter asking whether or not they did their jobs right? That should clear it up.

Maybe you should lighten up a bit.

 

[hockeykicker]

Columbus is regretting their deal

Edit: this was to protect their backup goalie

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Considering Djoos's development, I haven't missed Schmidt much this season. Obviously I wish we still had him and Johansson, but what's done is done. Time to move on guys.

 

[g00n]

Maybe you should lighten up a bit.

I'm good bud

 

[maacoshark]

I'm good bud

OK we dont want to see another slap fight

 

[g00n]

OK we dont want to see another slap fight

Ooooooooooooo you got me

 

[maacoshark]

Considering Djoos's development, I haven't missed Schmidt much this season. Obviously I wish we still had him and Johansson, but what's done is done. Time to move on guys.

I agree. Who knows they might not have contributed as much to this team as we thought.

 

[Bananas]

Ultimately it would have been nice to keep both Wilson and Schmidt but Vegas would have had to play ball.

Currently Djoos is saving our bacon without him we’d be hurting bad...

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Stupid GMGM continuing to damage the Caps 20 years later. Lol.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Oh hey! Another coulda - woulda - shoulda thread about schmidty or mojo.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Please elaborate on your standings argument, because to me it certainly seems that you're implying that because the Capitals have a lot of standings points means they handled the expansion draft well. And I know you're smarter than that.

But, yes, we know other teams did better at navigating the pitfalls of the expansion draft. There were teams with both more and better assets that Schmidt exposed and they managed to avoid giving them up. Minnesota had all of Dumba, Scandella, and Eric Staal exposed, and didn't have to give up any of them. Sure, they gave up a good prospect in Tuch, but they avoided losing the three most significant win-now assets (one of which also has the most long-term upside of any of them). Anaheim had both Vatanen and Manson exposed, and avoided giving either of them up by giving up Shea Theodore instead. They managed to protect their current top 4 defensemen by giving up a potential top 4 defenseman, a strong win-now move for a team with aspirations of near-future contention (one of those defensemen later turned into a quality center via trade). As much as I like Schmidt, when compared to guys like Vatanen, Manson, and Dumba, he's a less appealing asset. And those teams managed to avoid losing those superior assets in the expansion draft.

Getting a feel for the framework of a potential deal in advance isn't the same as signing that deal in advance or vacating all of your bargaining power. It's having a realistic conversation with a player and their agent about the type of deal that they want. If starting in advance was such as bad idea, GMBM wouldn't be talking with Carlson's agent already. Jonathan Marchessault wouldn't have just extended with Vegas, nor would any of the other mid-season contracts get signed. Getting an idea of where parties stand ahead of team-altering decisions like the expansion draft is good management strategy. I'm not expect that GMBM win every single negotiation, I'm expecting that the front office gather all the information possible (including contract frameworks) and map out the impacts on the team. It's something they very clearly did a poor job of this season, as demonstrated by unexpectedly losing Schmidt and their behind-the-8 ball trade of Johansson.

George didn't work for Minnesota or Anaheim.

But I'm sure that's not relevant to your perspective. Right? Let's completely dismiss the human aspect of all of this.

Just like the Oshie benching question.

People in power always always always do logical things. We see that on the news every day! Lol

 

[Hivemind]

Provide a single shred of direct evidence that McPhee was working to make it more difficult for MacLellan, his disciple and close friend.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Provide a single shred of direct evidence that McPhee was working to make it more difficult for MacLellan, his disciple and close friend.

Lol. You provide that he didn’t.

It goes both ways. He got fired. There’s been plenty of discussions around it, and not just from message boards.

Like I said, you have your narratives, and anything that is outside of it is abjectly dismissed. It’s ok. We all do it.

Edit —and let’s look at the man, George. He’s a known scrapper. Both as a player and a GM. He welcomes fisticuffs. As one gets older, you still welcome it...just not in a physical manner. But in an emotional/mental one. George liked sticking it to people, he always has. So of course it’s a quantum leap that he’d have that mindset towards his old employer, one that cast him adrift?

Ever been let go from a job, Hive?

 

[Hivemind]

A) You're the one making the claim, the burden of proof is on you.
B) Saying "prove he didn't" is such a BS argument, and you know it. That's like someone alleging that Ovechkin uses steroids and then retorting "prove he doesn't" when they provide no evidence.


You're conjecture is nothing more than that, conjecture. There's no credible reporters picking up your line of thought, or even Caps blogs as far as I know. However, the "narrative" I'm espousing does match what reporters, blogs, and MacLellan himself said regarding their off-season. Let GMBM's own words paint the picture.

But MacLellan not only argues that he couldn’t trade Johansson before he knew whether he could retain unrestricted free agent Oshie and restricted free agents Kuznetsov and Dmitry Orlov, but that the size of those contracts, driven by the market, would dictate whether they had to deal Johansson at all.
“Depending on how much money we spend there, they’re going to affect how much money we need to get rid of,” MacLellan said. “You have certain levers that you can push as far as the trade route, and we had laid out the options. If we need this much money [in salary cap space], we’ll trade Johansson. If we need this much, we’ll trade these two guys.”

There it is, Brian MacLellan staight up admitting they didn't know how much they would be paying for Oshie, Orlov, and Kuznetsov prior to the expansion draft, and that lack of knowledge painted them into a corner with Johansson afterwards. I'm far from the only one who was critical of GMBM's offseason

Grading General Manager Brian MacLellan’s Offseason Moves for First 4 Years

Foresight lacking in Brian MacLellan's plan for Caps offseason

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-off-season-power-rankings-whos-improved-far/

JRR Episode 59: Summertime Madness

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There’s no burden of proof. How laugable. His position is perfectly reasonable and we know GMBM balked at a high price to protect Schmidt. GMGM wasn’t doing them any favors at best. He likely had a “Capitals tax” attached to any deal with them unless it was already in his favor by a large margin. McPhee is the type to hold a grudge or alienate. Ask any NHL agent.

 

[Bananas]

Keeping Oshie at those terms is looking mighty sketchy right about now especially considering the Carlson dilemma and Oshie’s current funk. Not having Schmidt only compounds it.

I like Oshie a lot but his foot speed and age are gonna make him the forward version of Orpik in no time. I still like having him for the short term but, man, that’s a long contract...

I never understood how we shed speed and youth and retained older, slower guys as the league is clearly moving to a faster paced game.

I will say, however, this top-heavy, aging and slowing roster is doing a heck of a job holding it together so far. It is a feather in the cap of those who preach intangibles and leadership attributes - as well as organizational continuity. Orpik and Oshie are battle tested, vet SOBs and you need some grizzle to make it sizzle imo.

Ultimately, I would have prioritized things a little differently and made a few more radical adjustments. This was a seemingly reactive and reactionary offseason. I was hoping for a fresher more progressive tack. Keeping guys like Kuznetsov and Orlov were no brainers, as was letting Williams and Alzner walk.

It really comes down to how to prioritize Oshie, Wilson, Mojo, Eller, Burakovsky and Schmidt.

I guess we’ll find out how we did over the next couple years. Just give us one Ovie-led Cup and Oshie’s legs can fall off and Schmidt can dance circles around us and the rest of the league for an eon after that for all I care...

 

[Slateman]

Yeah right? Should've exposed Carlson instead

I'm not really familiar with the rules, but could we not have done that?

 

[Ridley Simon]

A) You're the one making the claim, the burden of proof is on you.
B) Saying "prove he didn't" is such a BS argument, and you know it. That's like someone alleging that Ovechkin uses steroids and then retorting "prove he doesn't" when they provide no evidence.


You're conjecture is nothing more than that, conjecture. There's no credible reporters picking up your line of thought, or even Caps blogs as far as I know. However, the "narrative" I'm espousing does match what reporters, blogs, and MacLellan himself said regarding their off-season. Let GMBM's own words paint the picture.


There it is, Brian MacLellan staight up admitting they didn't know how much they would be paying for Oshie, Orlov, and Kuznetsov prior to the expansion draft, and that lack of knowledge painted them into a corner with Johansson afterwards. I'm far from the only one who was critical of GMBM's offseason

Grading General Manager Brian MacLellan’s Offseason Moves for First 4 Years

Foresight lacking in Brian MacLellan's plan for Caps offseason

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-off-season-power-rankings-whos-improved-far/

JRR Episode 59: Summertime Madness

How does any of what you just lathered in there — any of it — relate to George? Your antics aside here, Hive, I laid out my feelings and rationale as to why George would treat the Caps differently than anyone else. You then lay into how Brian handled things. If ever there was moving a goalpost, you just did it.

Oddly enough, you do a pretty good job of supplementing g00n’s points about how GMBM couldn’t be “as prepared” for the contract wave as you are indicting him for. As he said, he couldn’t know all the variables.

This stance of yours reeks of Monday AM QB’ing, and “well, I could have done BETTER!!!!” Sure bud. You have all the answers, and any of our opinions are bunk as we can’t PROVE them. LOL.

The only “proof” of anything is in the results. Which GM’s team is back in first place in the Metro? After most “pundits” thought they may even miss the playoffs? Seems he’s done a pretty good job, yes? Now you can show me the fancy stats that PROVE otherwise. After all records/standings are secondary on HF, right?

Lastly — how is last years “GM of the Year” team doing? I know the Pens have 2 cups, they rock. But they sure suffered last summer too. None of these guys meet your standards.

 

[Hivemind]

Returning to the conversation in this thread regarding the GMBM's handling of the expansion draft and off-season in a whole is moving the goalposts now? Really?

If you want to talk McPhee and nothing but McPhee, go ahead. I'm still waiting for a shred of evidence to support your claim. You have a narrative, but literally zero evidence to support it. Not a single article, quote, blog post, twitter comment, etc. The burden of proof is upon you here.

If anyone is moving the goalposts here, it's you. "It's not about GMBM, it's about McPhee." "It's not about the expansion draft, it's about how the team is in first in the metro." "It's not about the Capitals, it's about the Penguins." Pathetic.

 

[g00n]

Ok, what was Gmbm supposed to say? That they knew EXACTLY what those players would sign for? Of course they didn't know down to the dollar because nobody did and nobody could've known. Even the player agents didn't know for sure how it was going to end. As I said it depended on the market and that market was unique given the factors involved. They still probably had a good idea, and a better idea than any of us.

When you're playing up against the cap you know a few bucks here and there can swing things wildly. Hive, you were one of the loudest voices complaining about TW being "overpaid" by $500K or whatever it was (still think so?) because of the potential usefulness of that half-million around the roster. Why does that same standard of little wiggle room not apply here? Do you really, honestly think that a GM with two drafts on his hands and massive unknowns around the league with motives/caps/farm systems of other teams should've been able to predict each new contract within a few bucks?

(oh and fwiw your link to your Kuz breakdown goes to a stats explanation page for chicago)