News Article: Red Wings Want 1st Round Pick for Howard

[jkutswings]

Naah, like I said earlier, on tight cap situations Kenny went long-term, caphit down. At Next summer he has 28 million in capspace to go short-term, with higher salary. He can go with higher salary, because there's so much cheap ELCs coming in. And these short-term contracts will end before those ELCs need a huge raises. So it will be a total strategy change.

He could also throw a Nyquist signing bonus on the lockout year, so Nyquist will take it, and he can consider a new contract after this short-term will end. Nyquist has already got +20 million on his career and get another 20 on his next contract. And the more. There's no real reason to maximize the term. Retirement contracts are gone. Stop living in the past, look on the future.

Money will be Kenny's power next off-season again. Term times are over.

Imagine you're Nyquist's agent. Your client has played his entire career with one organization, but has been an up and down player, staying close to 0.5 ppg. Now he's 29 years old, will be a UFA, and is having far and away his best NHL season, with a 0.8 ppg pace.

Here's your one and only thought:

Gus might very well want to stay with Detroit. But the kid is about to get PAID - like $35 to 40M over 6 years kinda paid - and the Wings would be foolish to compete with that level of spending on that type of player.

 

[Henkka]

Imagine you're Nyquist's agent. Your client has played his entire career with one organization, but has been an up and down player, staying close to 0.5 ppg. Now he's 29 years old, will be a UFA, and is having far and away his best NHL season, with a 0.8 ppg pace.

Everybody is having too good seasons, thanks to inflated scoring this season and it will push the prices down.

Points/game are not comparable in the past. We'll see a new market.

Nyquist's "far and away best season" isn't as good as it looks relatively.

 

[ricky0034]

Everybody is having too good seasons, thanks to inflated scoring this season and it will push the prices down.

Points/game are not comparable in the past. We'll see a new market.

Nyquist's "far and away best season" isn't as good as it looks relatively.

just because other players have been having good seasons too doesn't mean he's not having a much better year

right now he's 26th among Wingers in points per game with 20+ games played

last year he was 90th among Wingers in points per game with 40+ games played

52nd the year before

72nd in 2015-16

45th in 2014-15

and he's doing this on a team where his 40 points are 2nd best behind only Larkin's 45 and nobody else has more than 28,no Defenseman has more than 17

 

[Henkka]

I'll predict 4 years and 6M for Nyquist. I would be fine with that.

Feel free to, put your own predictions in here, and we'll see on the summer who got closest.

 

[jkutswings]

I'll predict 4 years and 6M for Nyquist. I would be fine with that.

Feel free to, put your own predictions in here, and we'll see on the summer who got closest.

As I stated earlier, between 35 and 40 million dollars over 6 years, assuming he roughly maintains current production rates. We'll see.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

All you have to do is look at the contracts Helm and Gator got. If Gator gets a seven year contract for 4.25 per year after putting up 44 points, then Nyquist's agent isn't going to settle for a three year deal.

It will end up being a minimum of five years/five million per year.

The pertinent comparison is Tomas Tatar. Tatar got 5 years, 5.1M. THAT is the contract that frames it, not Abby and Helm.
Bringing up Abby and Helm's deals as some kind of precedent is just another way to ***** about those contracts.

 

[ShelbyZ]

IMO, Nyquists value will also be affected by what the market looks like going into July 1st. As guys like Panarin, Skinner and/or Stone come off the market, Nyquists value could increase.

It's hard to gauge where Nyquist falls among the three wingers signed last summer.

JVR - 29YO coming off a career high 36 goals and clearly the only top line wing option - 5 x $7M with no NTC/NMC whatsoever
James Neal - 31YO 25G (only 3 in the last 20 games) 44P, and recent optics having been in the SCF 3 weeks prior - 5 x $5.75M with no NTC/NMC
David Perron - turned 30YO a month before 7/1/18, a career year of 66P in 70 games, but then was a healthy scratch for Vegas at times in the playoffs - front loaded 4 x $4M with a 5 team no trade list NTC for the duration.

I think he's at least going to get what his salary is this current season, $5.5M. I also don't think a team is going to offer him a real long term deal, unless the salary is front or back loaded. 4 or 5 years is probably the max.

But there's probably other factors that might counter big dollars:

-Protection from the lockout/new CBA (a deal loaded with mostly signing bonuses)
-Protection from the upcoming expansion draft (a NMC until at least 21-22)

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I'll predict 4 years and 6M for Nyquist. I would be fine with that.

Feel free to, put your own predictions in here, and we'll see on the summer who got closest.

My guess would be 5 years $30 million, If he would take 4 years $24 million from Detroit i can live with that. We'd still have plenty for Mantha, AA, and Bertuzzi the following summer.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

The pertinent comparison is Tomas Tatar. Tatar got 5 years, 5.1M. THAT is the contract that frames it, not Abby and Helm.
Bringing up Abby and Helm's deals as some kind of precedent is just another way to ***** about those contracts.

No it isn't. Tatar was still an RFA when he signed that contract.

Those god awful contracts will haunt the Wings for a very long time.

 

[Ezekial]

No it isn't. Tatar was still an RFA when he signed that contract.

Those god awful contracts will haunt the Wings for a very long time.

3 of the 4 years negotiated were UFA, Nyquist's contract is definitely going to be framed closer to Tatar's than Abby and Helm's. Tatar being an RFA didn't dictate the term, he probably wanted to negotiate another UFA contract at age 30-31 rather than at 34 - and MAYBE KH didn't want term?
Agenda driven statement.

 

[Claypool]

I'll predict 4 years and 6M for Nyquist. I would be fine with that.

Feel free to, put your own predictions in here, and we'll see on the summer who got closest.

Why? He's never done anything. He's a 40 point winger that lost his goal-scoring confidence. He's not worth the continued investment.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

3 of the 4 years negotiated were UFA, Nyquist's contract is definitely going to be framed closer to Tatar's than Abby and Helm's. Tatar being an RFA didn't dictate the term, he probably wanted to negotiate another UFA contract at age 30-31 rather than at 34 - and MAYBE KH didn't want term?
Agenda driven statement.

He was still an RFA. That gave the Wings a lot of leverage when negotiating that contract. The Wings have absolutely zero leverage when it comes to Nyquist's next contract.

 

[jkutswings]

The pertinent comparison is Tomas Tatar. Tatar got 5 years, 5.1M. THAT is the contract that frames it, not Abby and Helm.
Bringing up Abby and Helm's deals as some kind of precedent is just another way to ***** about those contracts.

Yes and no. Different players with different contracts, but it also sets a precedent of overpaying good soldiers based on personality over performance.

Do I expect Holland to race to get Nyquist inked to a bloated deal? No. But it's not accurate to say that agents get absolutely no leverage from bad contracts in general.

 

[Henkka]

Why? He's never done anything. He's a 40 point winger that lost his goal-scoring confidence. He's not worth the continued investment.

And who's the replacement?

You think it's smart team building just whine how 70-point player has to go and you don't suggest any solution how to fix that hole?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

And who's the replacement?

You think it's smart team building just whine how 70-point player has to go and you don't suggest any solution how to fix that hole?

Nyquist turns 30 before the start of next season. There is almost no chance his agent would ever let him take a four year deal. It's gonna be at least five years. The Wings would be really dumb if they extended ANOTHER winger where his contract takes place almost exclusively during his 30's.

There is absolutely no upside to extending Nyquist. Flipping Nyquist for draft picks provides a ton of upside. More losses this season to maximize the Wings odds of winning the lottery and more kicks at the can during the draft.

Any competent organization should be able to easily replace a player like Nyquist. Good but not great top six winger. Dime a dozen talent should not be locked up long term. EVER.

 

[Claypool]

And who's the replacement?

You think it's smart team building just whine how 70-point player has to go and you don't suggest any solution how to fix that hole?

Which 70-point player are you talking about?

I'd move Mantha up full time with Larkin and Bertuzzi.

 

[Heaton]

Nyquist turns 30 before the start of next season. There is almost no chance his agent would ever let him take a four year deal. It's gonna be at least five years. The Wings would be really dumb if they extended ANOTHER winger where his contract takes place almost exclusively during his 30's.

There is absolutely no upside to extending Nyquist. Flipping Nyquist for draft picks provides a ton of upside. More losses this season to maximize the Wings odds of winning the lottery and more kicks at the can during the draft.

Any competent organization should be able to easily replace a player like Nyquist. Good but not great top six winger. Dime a dozen talent should not be locked up long term. EVER.

Yeah, how's that Helm deal working out? How's Abdelkader working out? Nyquist is a career 40 point winger that the Wings have already proven they can draft quite easily. Can Zadina not put up 40 points within 2 years? If he can't, that's a major indictment on Holland and Wright.

The Wings need to start opening up cap space to be able to use their cap space as an asset. I'd trade Nyquist for a late 1st, I'd trade Howard for a 3rd.

 

[TheMule93]

Which 70-point player are you talking about?

I'd move Mantha up full time with Larkin and Bertuzzi.

they've tried that line enough, mantha and larkin have absolutely 0 chemistry

 

[Claypool]

they've tried that line enough, mantha and larkin have absolutely 0 chemistry

Nyquist has 11 goals through 50 games playing with this team's best player. I'm confident Mantha could score more than that.

 

[Shaman464]

Time to move on. It’s not time to buy 6 years of declining Nyquist. Especially with Bert, Zadina, Martha, and other prospects that could fill top 6 roles.

 

[TheMule93]

Nyquist has 11 goals through 50 games playing with this team's best player. I'm confident Mantha could score more than that.

Nyquist wasn't moved onto Larkins line until fairly recently, prob hasn't even been 20 games. Hes probably been PPG since, dont have exact numbers though.

 

[The Zermanator]

And who's the replacement?

You think it's smart team building just whine how 70-point player has to go and you don't suggest any solution how to fix that hole?

You think it's smart team building to pay a player like a 70 point player when evidence suggest he will return to his norm of being a 40-50 point player? And pay him that for 5+ years? All in his 30s?

Nyquist is entering his 30s, meanwhile the team's most important players are all 24 or younger, he does not fit the new core.He will be expensive to re-sign and he has the most value he will ever have in his career right now. The smart move is clear, capitalize on the situation by trading him. The 1st round pick he will return will add a good piece to the rebuild because NHL players overwhelmingly come from the 1st round.

His replacement will be Zadina, Veleno, 2019 1st round pick (Det), as well as the player we get in the 1st round because we traded Nyquist. Considering what we netted from trading Tatar, it would be foolish not to trade him.

 

[Winger98]

I'm not against bringing Nyquist back, but he can't be our first option when there could be guys available who are frankly just plain better. He goes on the back burner until we either sign one of those better guys or someone else signs them. Then we go back to nyquist. And if Nyquist is still there, his price has likely fallen to a point where we'll have less of an issue with it.

We'll probably have a good idea how it'll play out the last couple of weeks of June when focus turns to UFA and UFA have a chance that one week before UFA begins to ask around a bit. If Nyquist is signed in that week, I think it tells us that no one is taking our calls. Which won't be a good sign.

 

[Henkka]

Tuukka Rask down with a concussion...

Doesn't help us, because they have Halak who has been very good backup at this season.

But just another example, how starter could go down, and we have answer, if same happens in another organization.

 

[Gniwder]

Nyquist wasn't moved onto Larkins line until fairly recently, prob hasn't even been 20 games. Hes probably been PPG since, dont have exact numbers though.

Just look at the game logs, he's actually only one point shy of PPG.