Post-Game Talk: Ready. Set. Terrible | Jets lose 4-1

[truck]

I couldnt disagree with you more.

You don't agree that more saves and less goals allowed would improve the team's record?
Perhaps you do indeed need

 

[TroubaFan1]

You can disagree all you want, but it's not really opinion, it's FACT.

Pavelec has been hovering around .900 his whole career (more below than a starter should be) League average is around .910

Physically crunch the numbers and calculate how many more goals against we've had scored on us due to factual below statistical average goaltending and it's easy to see the wins we have sacrificed.

If Pavelec is .910 this year we are most likely 3rd in the Conference right now.

Ive said it before, ive play net a long time at pretty high levels, and I can rattle off a bunch of games where my save % was sub .900 and ive played better in those game then in an 18 shot shutout. Thats cold hard facts right there.

 

[Jet]

I believe the average among starters over the last few years is .914

If I was a stats head with unlimited time on my hands I'd bear the numbers out and show how many wins we may have given up due to Pavelec's lower than league average goaltending.

Considering we've lost a bunch of one goal games it could be flattering.

 

[TroubaFan1]

You don't agree that more saves and less goals allowed would improve the team's record?
Perhaps you do indeed need

That wasnt the part of the comment I quoted. Maybe you need some reading.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

It really is weird, maybe his glove hand wasn't phenomenal but it was never a liability to the point it has become.

Well, he sure is different now.

 

[Lynk]

Well, he sure is different now.

Indeed, it's really hard to understand as someone who has watched him for such a long time.

 

[theamazingchris]

Ive said it before, ive play net a long time at pretty high levels, and I can rattle off a bunch of games where my save % was sub .900 and ive played better in those game then in an 18 shot shutout. Thats cold hard facts right there.

Yeah, but we're not talking about individual games, we're talking collectively. Over the whole season, these things average out. Will you have bad games and get lucky? Yes. Will you have good games with a poor offensive performance? Yes. But over time these types of games balance each other out. On average, games are, well, average. And on average, Pavs has lets in way more goals than he should.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Seriously? I dont get why you are so cynical about EVERYthing but yet you take what lawless says as gospel.

Do you think that quote from a teammate was made up or simply occurred within a vacuum? Perhaps there might be merit to it. Just sayin'.

I personally think this team is poorly constructed and lacks depth and compete level across the board. If Burmistrov can be moved for a body that helps now or a high pick that adds depth then I'm in favour of that move. Hey, even Dreger is suggesting he is potentially to be moved; I'm guessing that statement didn't occur within a vacuum either.

 

[TroubaFan1]

Yeah, but we're not talking about individual games, we're talking collectively. Over the whole season, these things average out. Will you have bad games and get lucky? Yes. Will you have good games with a poor offensive performance? Yes. But over time these types of games balance each other out. On average, games are, well, average. And on average, Pavs has lets in way more goals than he should.

No he doesnt, I mean how many goals have gone in off our dmen this season around 6? How many dumb turnovers in our own zone have cost us? How many time have our dmen been burned by below average players? This team is a joke defensively, hence why we have the worst PK out there.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Ive said it before, ive play net a long time at pretty high levels, and I can rattle off a bunch of games where my save % was sub .900 and ive played better in those game then in an 18 shot shutout. Thats cold hard facts right there.

No, it's anecdotal.

 

[Lynk]

No he doesnt, I mean how many goals have gone in off our dmen this season around 6? How many dumb turnovers in our own zone have cost us? How many time have our dmen been burned by below average players? This team is a joke defensively, hence why we have the worst PK out there.

Could that not also be because of goaltending. We all know who is constantly said to be the most important penalty killer on a hockey team.

 

[TroubaFan1]

Could that not also be because of goaltending. We all know who is constantly said to be the most important penalty killer on a hockey team.

This is true, but we do not clear rebounds and we allow to many cross ice passes which are both very tough to deal with as a goalie.

 

[Jet]

Ive said it before, ive play net a long time at pretty high levels, and I can rattle off a bunch of games where my save % was sub .900 and ive played better in those game then in an 18 shot shutout. Thats cold hard facts right there.

I don't think you are following here.

His numbers were extrapolated throughout his entire career. Every other goaltender that played when he did's numbers were compiled at the same time.

Save for a few weeks in his ENTIRE CAREER, he has been 10 - 15 points BELOW an AVERAGE NHL GOALTENDER. We aren't talking about the top of the heap, Vezina winning, 935sv% guys. We are talking run of the mill, average goalies, including backups.

Garret says that after 3000 shots, a goalies work situation or outside influence normalizes. These numbers are over a far greater than 3000 shot sample.

Pavelec has been a below average NHL goaltender his entire career. There is no disputing it. You can say you played goal and had games that were above and below etc but it isn't germaine to this discussion.

 

[Stej]

Indeed, it's really hard to understand as someone who has watched him for such a long time.

Work ethic? Gotta work hard just to tread water, never mind actually improve.

 

[PaperRockChamp]

Second time you said that. I eagerly await to see if you wuss out and edit it like the last time LMAO.

Last year that saying was all over.. it got old fast.. think yolo.

 

[TroubaFan1]

I don't think you are following here.

His numbers were extrapolated throughout his entire career. Every other goaltender that played when he did's numbers were compiled at the same time.

Save for a few weeks in his ENTIRE CAREER, he has been 10 - 15 points BELOW an AVERAGE NHL GOALTENDER. We aren't talking about the top of the heap, Vezina winning, 935sv% guys. We are talking run of the mill, average goalies, including backups.

Garret says that after 3000 shots, a goalies work situation or outside influence normalizes. These numbers are over a far greater than 3000 shot sample.

Pavelec has been a below average NHL goaltender his entire career. There is no disputing it. You can say you played goal and had games that were above and below etc but it isn't germaine to this discussion.

You cant base opinions simply by stats, if you could everyone would say Brodeur is the goat, but not everyone does. Pavs had a better gaa and save % his last year in Atlanta, then he did his first year in Winnipeg, yet he had a better winning % last season. My point being you cant judge a guy strictly by his stats, its just not possible.

 

[Lynk]

Work ethic? Gotta work hard just to tread water, never mind actually improve.

I honestly don't know at this point.

As Thrasher fans we were always having to deal with Kari Lehtonen's lack of work ethic and it would never go away.

With Ondrej, I was always worried about him becoming #1 because I was never overly impressed by him and his progression seemed to be quite slow. And at the same time if the stupid ass Atlanta Spirit had actually cared about the hockey team and instilled some coaching to hold Lehtonen accountable, this franchise would've been in much better shape between the pipes.

 

[Jet]

You cant base opinions simply by stats, if you could everyone would say Brodeur is the goat, but not everyone does. Pavs had a better gaa and save % his last year in Atlanta, then he did his first year in Winnipeg, yet he had a better winning % last season. My point being you cant judge a guy strictly by his stats, its just not possible.

When I watch Pavelec I see a below average goaltender too. Weak glove hand, bad on breakaways, lets in soft goals at bad times.

Anything else I need to say to convince you? Pavelec has not, as of yet, been good enough for this franchise to make the playoffs. Period.

 

[theamazingchris]

No he doesnt, I mean how many goals have gone in off our dmen this season around 6? How many dumb turnovers in our own zone have cost us? How many time have our dmen been burned by below average players? This team is a joke defensively, hence why we have the worst PK out there.

We are getting an average of 3 goals scored against us per game, which puts us 25th in the league. Meanwhile, we are allowing 28 shots per game, 11th in the league. I deal in statistics, not rhetorical questions. I don't believe that our defence is bad enough to create this discrepancy. I invite you to prove me wrong, though.

 

[TroubaFan1]

When I watch Pavelec I see a below average goaltender too. Weak glove hand, bad on breakaways, lets in soft goals at bad times.

Anything else I need to say to convince you? Pavelec has not, as of yet, been good enough for this franchise to make the playoffs. Period.

Yes he has, if the team could of scored more then 1 goal over the past 2 games maybe we could of won one of them. If that would of happened we would be 1 point out of a playoff spot with "below average" goaltending as you put it. For you to imply that the team has played that well we'd be only 1 point out of a playoff spot halfway through the season, also with Bogo, Buff, and Toby all missing signifcant time with below average goaltending is ridiculous.

 

[TroubaFan1]

We are getting an average of 3 goals scored against us per game, which puts us 25th in the league. Meanwhile, we are allowing 28 shots per game, 11th in the league. I deal in statistics, not rhetorical questions. I don't believe that our defence is bad enough to create this discrepancy. I invite you to prove me wrong, though.

Mark Stuart getting embarressed last night for starters. Guys like Kovalchuck, being able to walk right into the slot late in a 1 goal game for another.

 

[King Woodballs]

When I watch Pavelec I see a below average goaltender too. Weak glove hand, bad on breakaways, lets in soft goals at bad times.

Anything else I need to say to convince you? Pavelec has not, as of yet, been good enough for this franchise to make the playoffs. Period.

Neither has the play in front of him

 

[YWGinYYZ]

We are getting an average of 3 goals scored against us per game, which puts us 25th in the league. Meanwhile, we are allowing 28 shots per game, 11th in the league. I deal in statistics, not rhetorical questions. I don't believe that our defence is bad enough to create this discrepancy. I invite you to prove me wrong, though.

Eyup. This is pretty telling - match the record to the goalie, and figure out which team is which, and which one is currently in a playoff position. Note how close most of the stats are for these two teams. SF, SA are VERY close, as are most of the other stats.

Team

GP|W|L|OT|P|P%|G/G|GA/G|5-5 F/A|PP%|PK%|S/G|SA/G|FO%
22|10|11|1|21|0.477|2.54|3.04|0.89|14.3|73.5|28.6|28.1|50.4
21|11|8|2|24|0.571|2.52|2.43|1.15|14.7|83.3|29.7|28.3|51.8

Goalie

GP|GS|W|L|OT|SA|GA|GAA|Sv|Sv%|SO|G|A|PIM|TOI
18|18|10|7|1|491|40|2.27|451|0.919|0|0|0|0|1,058:26
20|19|8|11|1|534|55|2.93|479|0.897|0|0|0|0|1,126:23

I'm not saying the W/L record is all Pavs fault, but he has to figure out how to step up his game. Improving his SV% even a few points would go a long way to stealing a few games, and turning 1G losses into potential wins. I don't think asking him to raise his game towards being a league average goalie is too much to ask.

Other team is the Rangers, with Lundqvist.

 

[Jet]

Neither has the play in front of him

Devan Dubnyk, Curtis Sanford. .914 and .911 SV % last year.

I challenge someone to convince me those defenses from last year were better than ours.

I am going to stop now because it's like arguing with someone that the sky is blue.

 

[tntkid]

It is pretty sad that according to most of the HFJetsboard members Pavelec is a below average, overpaid, unreliable, ahl goaltender with no potential to take the Jets into the playoffs???

I am surprised that people here don't carry torches & run him out of town after a loss.

If the Jets actually came here after a loss & read what the chicken littles & ledge jumpers wrote they would be on suicide watch.