RD Timothy Liljegren - Ex-Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) III

[rt]

Liljegren has almost identical numbers to Cale Makar and is playing in the AHL while Makar is in the NCAA. The NCAA is nowhere near the level of the AHL. Makar went 4OA, Liljegren went 17. Liljegren certainly making a strong case that he was a top 5 talent so far.

What is the GPG of their respective teams?

 

[Brobust]

What is the GPG of their respective teams?

Teams get good results because of good players. Liljegren is an integral part of the Marlies offence.

Fans of godawful teams can't seem to wrap their heads around this simple concept. Maybe because they overrate their players.

3 GPG for UMass, 3.2 for the Marlies. By the way.

 

[LeafChief]

Are people actually trying to discredit what Liljegren has done so far in the AHL? Good lord.

Any why is he being compared to Chabot who is 2 years older?

 

[rt]

Teams get good results because of good players. Liljegren is an integral part of the Marlies offence.

Fans of godawful teams can't seem to wrap their heads around this simple concept. Maybe because they overrate their players.

3 GPG for UMass, 3.2 for the Marlies. By the way.

Haha. Thanks for the stats. Man there was a lot of baggage ahead of them. Wow.

 

[rt]

Are people actually trying to discredit what Liljegren has done so far in the AHL? Good lord.

I'm not.

 

[firstemperor]

Nah not so much left out as just looking at his progression in the big perspective. His AHL performance so far is good for an 18 year old, but not very good in context of where he was already 2 years ago. As a kid that played in the SHL at 16 it’s not a huge shock that he’d be doing well in the AHL at 18. If anything, if he wasn’t doing well it’d be a huge red flag. I’ll be impressed if he’s called up and performs at a high level, or if he starts dominating the AHL. That’s the stuff that could really prove that last year was all about mono.

I mean, let's give credit where it's due. The guy had mono last year and as per himself- couldn't even get out of bed properly some days. He played on a historically terrible Rogle team and then bounced around and tried to do too much once he got playing time again- all in his draft year. It was just a series of unfortunate circumstances for a teenager.

The comparable is that he's producing well in a league, that's on par with the SHL at minimum....but one that may translate better to the end-game, i.e. the NHL. Particularly because there's a bigger in-game adjustment for defenseman adjusting to the speed, physicality, space, and timing out of a smaller ice surface (among other concerns- like the cultural divide between continents).

The truth is, I never had Liljegren out of the top 10 to begin with. So it kind of reaffirms where I had his stock from the get-go.

Don't worry, I am not easily impressed either, but the reality is- no prospect in this class save perhaps Nico is truly impressing. Then you have a handful of players who's stock likely rose (includes guys like Liljegren, Poehling, Tolvanen).

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Are people actually trying to discredit what Liljegren has done so far in the AHL? Good lord.

Any why is he being compared to Chabot who is 2 years older?

He's being compared to Chabot to show really how impressive his season has been so far. Chabot is seen as a bluechipper and Liljegren is seen as a project, their AHL stats tell a different story.

 

[Hokinaittii]

Are people actually trying to discredit what Liljegren has done so far in the AHL? Good lord.

It just sounds weird to read posts like the one below just because he has had a solid start to the season. I mean, in the end those stats aren't excactly anything out of the world considering the small sample size of 18yo defenders who have actually played in the AHL. Also, considering how reckless the game is in AHL, I feel like you are pretty much set to produce if you have as good offensive instincts as guys like Liljegren.

Liljegren has almost identical numbers to Cale Makar and is playing in the AHL while Makar is in the NCAA. The NCAA is nowhere near the level of the AHL. Makar went 4OA, Liljegren went 17. Liljegren certainly making a strong case that he was a top 5 talent so far.

 

[Kiwi]

It just sounds weird to read posts like the one below just because he has had a solid start to the season. I mean, in the end those stats aren't excactly anything out of the world considering the small sample size of 18yo defenders who have actually played in the AHL. Also, considering how reckless the game is in AHL, I feel like you are pretty much set to produce if you have as good offensive instincts as guys like Liljegren.

He's an 18 year old defender in the AHL scoring at over half a point a game which is almost unheard of and he's still getting ****

I do so enjoy people who haven't watched the kid tell me he's not that good because "stuff" and everybody with some skill can score in the AHL because it's "reckless"

 

[93LEAFS]

It just sounds weird to read posts like the one below just because he has had a solid start to the season. I mean, in the end those stats aren't excactly anything out of the world considering the small sample size of 18yo defenders who have actually played in the AHL. Also, considering how reckless the game is in AHL, I feel like you are pretty much set to produce if you have as good offensive instincts as guys like Liljegren.

Then why are people like Oskar Lindblom who is an elite scorer in the SHL last year (47 points in 52 games) only have 13 points in 23 games this year. You are dramatically oversimplifying the adjustment period.

 

[93LEAFS]

Feels like Leafs fans are greatly overrating his performance so far. Sure, if he was a "normal" #17 pick he would be looking fairly promising. However, Liljegren was an early bloomer who had 5 points in 19 SHL games 2 years ago and was in a discussion for 1st overall in the draft going into last year. Then he started falling as he, among other things, showed a lack of progression (again posting 5p/19GP in the SHL).
Now he has 8 points in 14 games in the AHL, solid numbers for sure. But the AHL and SHL are, imo, similar caliber leagues. And he's on the best AHL team, compared to one of the worst SHL teams. That alone is easily enough to give a little boost in production. Point being; I'm not sure this is much in the way of actual progression for him. If we compare to for example Chychrun, who was a similar case of a guy that fell hard in the draft, he stepped straight into the NHL and had a decent year. For an early bloomer to have a decent start in the AHL, I don't find it very meaningful. Will be interesting to follow this kid but certainly right now he's not doing anything that makes me think other teams made a mistake passing on him.

Chychrun wouldn't have gotten that opportunity with any other team. He played for a team who keep a low salary and were willing to give him a chance. Chychrun would not have broken camp with almost any other NHL team.

 

[Hokinaittii]

Then why are people like Oskar Lindblom who is an elite scorer in the SHL last year (47 points in 52 games) only have 13 points in 23 games this year. You are dramatically oversimplifying the adjustment period.

I guess some people just figure it out earlier than others. I'm sure there are bunch of examples from players having hard time in AHL after coming from Europe and then there are guys like Mikko Rantanen who was barely 0.5 PPG player in his draft year and then next year exploded in AHL by scoring 60 in 52 games.

Anyway, I'm not denying Liljegren has been good so far in the AHL, I was just surprised to see people rank him so highly since there has been many other prospects out of top-5 who have also killed it in their teams.

 

[93LEAFS]

I guess some people just figure it out earlier than others. I'm sure there are bunch of examples from players having hard time in AHL after coming from Europe and then there are guys like Mikko Rantanen who was barely 0.5 PPG player in his draft year and then next year exploded in AHL by scoring 60 in 52 games.

Anyway, I'm not denying Liljegren has been good so far in the AHL, I was just surprised to see people rank him so highly since there has been many other prospects out of top-5 who have also killed it in their teams.

A bunch of people had him top 10 entering the draft (full disclosure, I had him at exactly 10). So, I'd say he's living up to some of the prior hype he had. Guys like Rantanen, are rarer than the opposite happening. I would think most guys have an adjustment period, especially an 18-year-old defender. If he can stay producing at this rate in the AHL, his stock will absolutely rise. Maybe not to being viewed as a top 3 pick like he was entering his draft year, but higher than he was viewed at the date of his draft.

Now, he's absolutely been put in a better situation to produce than he had last year in Rogle, and we shouldn't take a 14 game sample size too far. We aren't dicking him around in regards to ice-time. He knows the role he has, and what is expected. The draft year pressure is gone.

I'm just saying to claim he is benefitting from a less-structured league is a bit extreme. I'd say its more a case of him being given more responsibility to challenge him. While he had a rough year last year which hurt his draft stock, and he'll never fully regain that year where he could have developed more. He's shown so far in his time with the Marlies, that he's closer to being that highly hyped 16 year old than that disappointing 17 year old. As a Leafs fan, I'm just hoping it is a situation close to Logan Couture and Sean Couturier, whose draft stocks also fell due to Mono (both entered their draft year as top 3 picks), only to have their season slightly derailed due to Mono.

 

[Pavels Dog]

18 year old defenseman in the AHL never dominate though, like literally never have.

That’s probably more of a circumstantial thing than anything else. Many 18 year olds aren’t eligible for the AHL. Many of those drafted in the early 1st step right into the NHL. Many europeans stay in europe for their d+1 year. Liljegren is right in that special scenario of being an early bloomer but not yet NHL ready and he went to the AHL instead of staying in Sweden. If you asked people a year or two ago, I doubt most would even think Liljegren would be in the AHL but rather that he’d step straight into the NHL. His development as such is still a disappointment imo, and I don’t think it’s fair to suddenly start viewing him compared to the many, many D-men who were much later bloomers.
I will say that at this point he looks like a really good value pick at #17, however it’s far too early to say he was only falling because of mono.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Why isn't Dermott outperforming him by a huge margin? They play on the same pairing, Dermott has 2 years of development time on him and has shown he's NHL ready at the last training camp. You'd think he would easily outperform an 18 year old adjusting to NA sized rinks, no?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

That’s probably more of a circumstantial thing than anything else. Many 18 year olds aren’t eligible for the AHL. Many of those drafted in the early 1st step right into the NHL. Many europeans stay in europe for their d+1 year. Liljegren is right in that special scenario of being an early bloomer but not yet NHL ready and he went to the AHL instead of staying in Sweden. If you asked people a year or two ago, I doubt most would even think Liljegren would be in the AHL but rather that he’d step straight into the NHL. His development as such is still a disappointment imo, and I don’t think it’s fair to suddenly start viewing him compared to the many, many D-men who were much later bloomers.
I will say that at this point he looks like a really good value pick at #17, however it’s far too early to say he was only falling because of mono.

What are you talking about? Defensemen rarely step into the NHL the same year they’ve been drafted. Hell that didn’t even happen the year.

No one who’s watched him this year would call his development a disappointment.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

That’s probably more of a circumstantial thing than anything else. Many 18 year olds aren’t eligible for the AHL. Many of those drafted in the early 1st step right into the NHL. Many europeans stay in europe for their d+1 year. Liljegren is right in that special scenario of being an early bloomer but not yet NHL ready and he went to the AHL instead of staying in Sweden. If you asked people a year or two ago, I doubt most would even think Liljegren would be in the AHL but rather that he’d step straight into the NHL. His development as such is still a disappointment imo, and I don’t think it’s fair to suddenly start viewing him compared to the many, many D-men who were much later bloomers.
I will say that at this point he looks like a really good value pick at #17, however it’s far too early to say he was only falling because of mono.

What? You honestly couldn't be more off base with this post if you tried. You actually think a lot of D-men step right into the NHL at 18? That is a very rare thing to happen and it usually is only the elite of the elite.

 

[4thline]

"Well he hasn't unequivocally reclaimed his top 2, borderline franchise potential status, and there's nothing between that and a "good 1st rounder" ergo there's no reason to doubt the decision of the teams that passed on him in the range hes was expected to go (7-11)"
-fans of teams that passed on him

 

[Mugzy97]

Why isn't Dermott outperforming him by a huge margin? They play on the same pairing, Dermott has 2 years of development time on him and has shown he's NHL ready at the last training camp. You'd think he would easily outperform an 18 year old adjusting to NA sized rinks, no?

Maybe that 18 yr old is really good?

 

[Pavels Dog]

What? You honestly couldn't be more off base with this post if you tried. You actually think a lot of D-men step right into the NHL at 18? That is a very rare thing to happen and it usually is only the elite of the elite.

Probably shouldn't have used the word "many", but yeah I'm talking about some of those really high drafted, early bloomer d-men, which is what Liljegren's trajectory was until last season, as well as some guys that for various reasons fell in the draft after being highly ranked (Fowler and Chychrun come to mind).
Point is there's not a whole lot of competition in the way of "18 year olds in the AHL". He's a rare case of someone who is ready to play against men at 16, projected as a top 3 draft pick, and then goes on to instead spend time in the AHL.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Probably shouldn't have used the word "many", but yeah I'm talking about some of those really high drafted, early bloomer d-men, which is what Liljegren's trajectory was until last season, as well as some guys that for various reasons fell in the draft after being highly ranked (Fowler and Chychrun come to mind).
Point is there's not a whole lot of competition in the way of "18 year olds in the AHL". He's a rare case of someone who is ready to play against men at 16, projected as a top 3 draft pick, and then goes on to instead spend time in the AHL.

Name them.

 

[4thline]

Point is there's not a whole lot of competition in the way of "18 year olds in the AHL". He's a rare case of someone who is ready to play against men at 16, projected as a top 3 draft pick, and then goes on to instead spend time in the AHL.

The point is- that your entire point is nonsensical. Yes there are few prior examples of defenders in the AHL at 18. That limits the utility of comparison it doesn't invalidate it.

Among the U19's- he's currently dramatically outperforming Voynov and Lindholm statistically. Kylington is in the same boat but still a prospect.

Among the U20's (as a U19)- he's behind only Carlson and OEL, tied with Ristolainen, well ahead of Leddy and Smid, Kylington same as above.

Among the U21's (as a U19)- he's top 40 in the same range as D. Savard, Weber, Josi, Lashoff (can't skate), Scandella, Larsson, Carrick, Oleksiak, Zadorov- again while two full development seasons younger.

 

[newfy]

The point is- that your entire point is nonsensical. Yes there are few prior examples of defenders in the AHL at 18. That limits the utility of comparison it doesn't invalidate it.

Among the U19's- he's currently dramatically outperforming Voynov and Lindholm statistically. Kylington is in the same boat but still a prospect.

Among the U20's (as a U19)- he's behind only Carlson and OEL, tied with Ristolainen, well ahead of Leddy and Smid, Kylington same as above.

Among the U21's (as a U19)- he's top 40 in the same range as D. Savard, Weber, Josi, Lashoff (can't skate), Scandella, Larsson, Carrick, Oleksiak, Zadorov- again while two full development seasons younger.

Another thing to consider when comparing to guys like Weber is that they came from junior. Liljegren had the benefit of playing against men as an early bloomer the last couple of years so his adjustment is pretty different compared to a guy coming from the WHL. One matured early and fell in the draft, one matured late and performed better than his position. Obviously not all comparisons are going to be perfect and those are good names to be in company with but comparing across these leagues is really tough.

Instead of comparing numbers, I would really be wanting to use the eye ball test on him to get a good judgement. Way to early to throw numbers like this around.

 

[LeafChief]

Name them.

@Pavels Dog - we're waiting.

 

[4thline]

Another thing to consider when comparing to guys like Weber is that they came from junior. Liljegren had the benefit of playing against men as an early bloomer the last couple of years so his adjustment is pretty different compared to a guy coming from the WHL. One matured early and fell in the draft, one matured late and performed better than his position. Obviously not all comparisons are going to be perfect and those are good names to be in company with but comparing across these leagues is really tough.

Instead of comparing numbers, I would really be wanting to use the eye ball test on him to get a good judgement. Way to early to throw numbers like this around.

What does that mean though? I you trying to say that because he was better at 16 that he can't be better at 18?

This whole sideline came about from the paraphrased opinion "don't be too happy, what he's doing isn't that impressive, par for the course for a mid 1st rounder"- an opinion that has been shown to be demonstrably false. In the 16-19 range historically you're looking at a ~70% chance of a 100 game + NHLer. What Liljegren is doing in the AHL suggests a far more likely outcome, even comparing it at face value to players two years older

By no means is it a guarantee of success. But to say that going from a ~25ppg 3rd pairing SHL PP specialist at 16 to >.5ppg top 4, top pair AHL impact player at 18 is not impressive (in fact it's been said that it's not an improvement at all) because he stagnated at 17 (quite likely due to mono) and to be expected from a mid first rounder is pretty ignorant.