Ranking the NHL's GMs

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Brian MacStanley at 19 and George McFail at 8... terrible. (Yes, I know the article was written in February).

 

[tucker3434]

Sakic deserves a bit more love. The biggest reason he was catching so much hell last year was that everyone thought he was screwing up the Duchene trade in a massive way. Turns out, he didn’t.

The Avs have a bubble roster, top 10 prospect pool, and two picks in the first round of next year’s draft. I don’t see how that’s a bottom 1/3 GM.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Ah, so Dubas is a top GM because Tavares signed with the Leafs due to them being a successfully run organization, due to the "Shanaplan" and Lou turning them into that.

Impressive.

I thought he was killing it this summer for signing Tyler Ennis.

 

[Laineux]

Does failing a trade make a GM bad? Should we judge GM's based on what we knew at the time of the trade, or by the ending result?

If a GM picks a trade he has a 80-20% chance to win, but that 20% probability happens instead, was it a terrible trade?

Meh. I feel like there's too much just pure random variation to even judge this kind of stuff.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Does failing a trade make a GM bad? Should we judge GM's based on what we knew at the time of the trade, or by the ending result?

If a GM picks a trade he has a 80-20% chance to win, but that 20% probability happens instead, was it a terrible trade?

Meh. I feel like there's too much just pure random variation to even judge this kind of stuff.

It depends on the trades. Some trades can be judged pretty quickly as to whether they're good or bad. While others take much longer to judge due to the pieces involved.


For example I think it would be fair to judge the Carolina/Calgary blockbuster this past summer almost right away. Since it involved mostly players that are in there primes or close to it and are well established players. I would argue both GMs did pretty well in this deal as I dont see any clear winner in the trade. It was a necessary shake up for both sides that should see benefits next season.

Likewise I think you could judge the Carolina/Buffalo trade right now as well. In that one I think it's fair to say Carolina did not do a good job. They moved a quality Top 6 forward and didn't get any piece that has the realistic upside of being the same impact player Skinner was in return. Obviously in a few years there's a chance that the draft picks they got end up being good players, but that would speak more to the drafting and scouting of the Hurricanes then to the trade itself.



Other trades will take much longer to properly evaluate. Such as the Tampa/New York trade involving McDonagh at the deadline. The Rangers got a lot of future pieces in the form of actual players not just picks in the deal, so the development of Hajek/Howden now going forward will have a pretty significant impact on the way that deal will get perceived in a few years. And on the otherside its very clear that Tampa made that trade with the goal of winning a cup. If they dont win a cup in the next couple of years with McDonagh playing big minutes it could be looked as a lost trade for them as well because that was clearly the goal in mind when they completed the deal. So even if the Rangers end up getting little in terms of future value out of that trade, if Tampa doesn't win the cup it still wouldn't be a good deal for them.




I think there's a tonne of variables that should be factored into evaluating trades. Both in terms of pure value versus future value, and the goals that were trying to be accomplished by each team in a trade. Thus I think its possible for trades to work out where both teams "Win" the deal(Colorado/Washington trade this past summer jumps out as one of these), but it's also possible for a trade where both teams actually lose the trade as well.

 

[Oddbob]

Garth Snow at 23, YIKES! He is bottom 3.

 

[ClydeLee]

Sakic deserves a bit more love. The biggest reason he was catching so much hell last year was that everyone thought he was screwing up the Duchene trade in a massive way. Turns out, he didn’t.

The Avs have a bubble roster, top 10 prospect pool, and two picks in the first round of next year’s draft. I don’t see how that’s a bottom 1/3 GM.

I am still confused by this perspective. Is that ranking the gm or just ranking the teams perspective current outlook.

If you're considering the GM and not taking into account that he has one of the bottom of the league seasons, then you're not evaluating what the gms have accomplished or done at all.

 

[LordNeverLose]

Garth Snow at 23, YIKES! He is bottom 3.

He's bottom 0 since he isn't a GM.

And no, he was not bottom 3 even when he had a job.

 

[Sittler 27]

It is too early to anoint Dubas as he is just getting his feet wet but as far as Leaf fans are concerned and have have been following the team closely he has looked good in a small sample size

 

[TheKingPin]

I think the OP needs to take a look at the flyers draft history. They are guilty for trading picks a lot, but they hit first rounders. Gagne, Sharp, Williams, Richards, Giroux. They really are the best team at drafting fwds late in the first.

The schenn deal was for two firsts. Farabee and Frost. That looks great so far. Lehtera was a cap dump. Hextall is top 10. This is a big year for him to try and get towards the top 5. If he wins a cup in 2 years or after he will be the GM of the year bc of the drafting.

 

[tucker3434]

I am still confused by this perspective. Is that ranking the gm or just ranking the teams perspective current outlook.

If you're considering the GM and not taking into account that he has one of the bottom of the league seasons, then you're not evaluating what the gms have accomplished or done at all.

I think you have to weigh accomplishments differently based on the job they inherited. Sakic’s job was clearly that of a rebuilder. For a rebuilder, I’d weight outlook much more heavily than past performance. Sakic has done a pretty solid job of restocking a prospect pool that was fairly bare when he got here. That’s one of the larger goals of a rebuilding team.

And yeah, 16-17 was an abomination, but it was just the polar opposite of the 13-14 season. We rode extrodinarily unsustainable numbers to an extreme result. If Sakic gets no credit for winning the division in 2014, why does he deserve the blame for bottoming out in 2017? I think it’s pretty clear, considering the seasons around them, that both of those runs were outliers. You remove them and Sakic’s Avs have been bubble teams with varying degrees of success.

Not saying he’s in the top 1/3, just not the bottom 1/3 either. The bottom 1/3 are weakening their team with their presence, and Sakic isn’t.

 

[LeafFever]

It is too early to anoint Dubas as he is just getting his feet wet but as far as Leaf fans are concerned and have have been following the team closely he has looked good in a small sample size

Yeah, it's not worth ranking anyone who just started, althought not sure how he could have done better without his team playing a game.

 

[ClydeLee]

I think you have to weigh accomplishments differently based on the job they inherited. Sakic’s job was clearly that of a rebuilder. For a rebuilder, I’d weight outlook much more heavily than past performance. Sakic has done a pretty solid job of restocking a prospect pool that was fairly bare when he got here. That’s one of the larger goals of a rebuilding team.

And yeah, 16-17 was an abomination, but it was just the polar opposite of the 13-14 season. We rode extrodinarily unsustainable numbers to an extreme result. If Sakic gets no credit for winning the division in 2014, why does he deserve the blame for bottoming out in 2017? I think it’s pretty clear, considering the seasons around them, that both of those runs were outliers. You remove them and Sakic’s Avs have been bubble teams with varying degrees of success.

Not saying he’s in the top 1/3, just not the bottom 1/3 either. The bottom 1/3 are weakening their team with their presence, and Sakic isn’t.

That seems rather revisionist to give him a pass as a rebuilder. That's not what was being pushed or sold until they failed and he never won a playoff series. They were a playoff team with him early.. but his choices and management is what lead them to bottom out. And that was never sold as a rebuild.

After 14 they make the let's get more playoff style players, trading Pap for Brier, adding iginla, tanguay, etc. Were they to win then moves and failed. Its only after that and the O'Reilly trade you can start to credit it as a rebuild effort.

For actual success he is absolutely in the bottom 3rd. No playoff series wins in 5 years and a bottom of the league season.

The only thing that should give him a pass is that he wasn't always in normal GM control being paired with Roy.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I think the OP needs to take a look at the flyers draft history. They are guilty for trading picks a lot, but they hit first rounders. Gagne, Sharp, Williams, Richards, Giroux. They really are the best team at drafting fwds late in the first.

The schenn deal was for two firsts. Farabee and Frost. That looks great so far. Lehtera was a cap dump. Hextall is top 10. This is a big year for him to try and get towards the top 5. If he wins a cup in 2 years or after he will be the GM of the year bc of the drafting.

Washington could give Philadelphia a run for their money in recent years with Kuznetsov (26OA), Burakovsky (23OA), and Johansson (24OA). In the middle of the 1st they've drafted Wilson (16OA), Vrana (13OA), and Forsberg, (11OA). But yeah, impressive track record by the Flyers.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I thought he was killing it this summer for signing Tyler Ennis.

Could be worse, he could have signed a 22 point player for 3x4 instead of league minimum for one year.

 

[tucker3434]

That seems rather revisionist to give him a pass as a rebuilder. That's not what was being pushed or sold until they failed and he never won a playoff series. They were a playoff team with him early.. but his choices and management is what lead them to bottom out. And that was never sold as a rebuild.

After 14 they make the let's get more playoff style players, trading Pap for Brier, adding iginla, tanguay, etc. Were they to win then moves and failed. Its only after that and the O'Reilly trade you can start to credit it as a rebuild effort.

For actual success he is absolutely in the bottom 3rd. No playoff series wins in 5 years and a bottom of the league season.

The only thing that should give him a pass is that he wasn't always in normal GM control being paired with Roy.

His management isn’t what lead to the bottom out. It was injuries to two of our best defenders and our best goalie, terrible puck luck, and almost all of our players having career lows. If it sounds familiar, it’s because it’s the opposite of 13-14. Neither of those teams had any business finishing where they did, but some days you’re the bird and some days you’re the statue.

He did make some poor moves early on but mostly the cost was only cap space that would have otherwise gone unused. His worst trade was probably a 2nd for Reto Berra. Not great but not exactly a franchise-crippler either. I think he has improved as he’s gained experience, and two of his best moves have been in the last 12 months.

And you bring up his playoff success, but there are a bunch of guys in the middle 1/3 range that are similar. First round exits is kinda the mark of an average GM. All the guys that make it farther are up towards the top.

 

[SillyRabbit]

Benning too high (should be bottom 5) and Chayka too low.

 

[AKL]

Benning too high (should be bottom 5) and Chayka too low.

How is Chayka too low? What has he done?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Holland - DET
(Something has to give in Detroit. Ken Holland loves to reward loyalty, but excessively so. He's truly awful at negotiating extensions. Danny DeKeyser, Darren Helm, Jonathan Ericsson, and Justin Abdelkader are all signed for way too long for way too much money, and it's not like they're outliers. Detroit is spending at least $3 million on 13 players this season, which is an awful lot for a team sitting distantly outside the playoff picture. Making matters even worse is the fact that none of Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Martin Frk, and Tyler Bertuzzi are included in that 13. Detroit has zero cap space and all five of those players to re-sign this offseason. Mike Green's $6 million coming off the books will help, as will Petr Mrazek's $4 million... but after that, the only other money being freed is David Booth's $700k salary. The Red Wings are in serious, serious trouble, and there's no secret that Holland's failure to manage his cap is to blame.)

Yes, such serious trouble that they can re-sign all their players and grab some short term UFAs to sell and add to their collection of most draft picks in the NHL (~40 picks in 16-19 drafts).
Man, how a guy like Poile (one time past the 2nd round) is #1, Nill (accomplished nothing) is #11, and Benning+Dorion are ahead of Holland (missed playoffs twice in entire GM career) is just so ridiculous. I’m sure that Ericsson contract will really hurt when Zadina, Rasmussen, Hronek, Veleno, Berggren, Cholowski, Svechnikov and McIsaac are playing on ELCs...

 

[Intense]

Came here expecting to see Bergevin and Chiarelli at the bottom. Was not disappointed.

 

[TheKingPin]

Washington could give Philadelphia a run for their money in recent years with Kuznetsov (26OA), Burakovsky (23OA), and Johansson (24OA). In the middle of the 1st they've drafted Wilson (16OA), Vrana (13OA), and Forsberg, (11OA). But yeah, impressive track record by the Flyers.

Yea I mean no arguing that. High end talent and great depth there. If not for Giroux you may have us. Hopefully the flyers success at drafting leads to a cup like its supposed to and did for the caps.

 

[Kranix]

Which GMs are on the "hot seat" right now?

 

[Dont Toews Me Bro]

Good to see I'm not the only one who thinks Bowman is a bottom third or so GM. At some point you have to find new talent instead of bringing former guys back.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

I like the list for the most part. It doesn’t suffer from the usual “he’s the GM of a good team so he has to be good” POV.

Every GM in the league is in a unique situation and judging them on a flat field overrates some and underrates others. I use this example all the time, but not too long ago Rutherford was considered a dolt and a failure and Holland was considered a genius. Rutherford parachuted into a winning situation and now he’s the genius, while Holland is saddled with a declining team and he’s a dinosaur.

Ask yourself this... how good could any Senators GM be? How lauded would Yzerman be at the helm of the Canadiens?

 

[rintinw]

Rutherford still strikes me as more of a good "Finisher" than GM that can build a winner. He had a brutal decade after that Canes cup win.

Even during that 'brutal decade' he still managed to get to conference finals. If you look at his resume he looks like more of big risk - big reward guy. His teams had 3 Cups, another final and another conference final in just 9 PO appearances.