Prospect Info: Rangers Prospects Thread (Stats in Post #1; Updated 5.29.18)

[nyr2k2]

Complete waste of a pick

Taking a 21 year old is dumb

I really hope we keep the overagers to a minimum or nonexistent this draft

Someone did a study, it was mentioned on here recently, and it said in the later rounds you're more likely to get an NHL player by taking an over-ager.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Someone did a study, it was mentioned on here recently, and it said in the later rounds you're more likely to get an NHL player by taking an over-ager.

That’s interesting, I certainly feel like every overage pick we’ve mad has been ass.

But once you get to the 4th round and later it should all be about straight up talent; like, Barron is the type of guy you’re looking for in the later rounds. You can find a million Lakatos’s Crawley’s or Virta’s in the UFA market. At least IMO.

 

[Fitzy]

Complete waste of a pick

Taking a 21 year old is dumb

I really hope we keep the overagers to a minimum or nonexistent this draft

NYI snag a 21 year old before they have to compete over him in UFA, at the loss of only a 5th round pick.

Sebastian Aho (b.1996) hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com

Very good value. Much better than NYR getting a 20 year old Crawley in the 4th.

 

[Fitzy]

That’s interesting, I certainly feel like every overage pick we’ve mad has been ass.

But once you get to the 4th round and later it should all be about straight up talent; like, Barron is the type of guy you’re looking for in the later rounds. You can find a million Lakatos’s Crawley’s or Virta’s in the UFA market. At least IMO.

I think our one successful overager was Dale Weise.

 

[Edge]

I think our one successful overager was Dale Weise.

Admittedly, they’re pretty low percentage picks to begin with, but it’s nice when you can find one.

Past success stories include other names like Hagelin, Callahan and Prucha.

We’ll see if Fontaine can develop into a fourth liner.

 

[nyr2k2]

I'm not going to really take a stance on the matter--I'm okay taking an over-age guy if the team really likes him--but I guess there is some evidence that these guys pan out at a better-than-average rate. I wish someone could find that analysis though, LOL.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Someone did a study, it was mentioned on here recently, and it said in the later rounds you're more likely to get an NHL player by taking an over-ager.

Here's the thing: People think going for a 17/18 year old junior hockey player in the 6th round is a better shot than taking a 20-year old who already played pro-hockey for 2 years.

Lakatos may not have worked out, and Daniel Bernhardt is another example. But how many of the 60 players picked after Lakatos will even play pro-hockey? I'd be surprised if 10% of those have a pro-career better than Lakatos.

 

[kovazub94]

Unless there's statistical evidence - either way is a total crap shoot in later rounds. And even statistic evidence would likely indicate a single digit percentage difference.

 

[Edge]

Unless there's statistical evidence - either way is a total crap shoot in later rounds. And even statistic evidence would likely indicate a single digit percentage difference.

If I remember correctly, the difference wasn’t earth shattering.

It wasn’t a jump from 5 percent to 25 percent or anything along those lines.

 

[Ranger Ric]

I think the reference made by NYR2k2 is to a post I did. Sometime within the last year Adam Herman retweeted a post from a former OHL official who may now be working in the NHL. I think the original post said that after the third or fourth round (can't remember) drafted overage forwards had a higher rate of success than drafting 18 year olds. I don't think there was a reference to a study just a statement with that conclusion. Unfortunately I can't find either tweet but perhaps someone else can.

In any event I think the tweet makes sense. The point that Amazing K makes is the key. Relatively few draft picks from the fourth round on make it to the NHL as a regular. So if you have another year or two of data on a player's development you would expect to have a higher rate of success than picking an 18 year old. Look at Brad Morrison. 60 points in his 18 year old year and he looks like a very good 4th round draft pick. But then two more 60 point seasons and suddenly the pick doesn't look so good and he doesn't even get a contract offer. The fact that the overage picks selected by the Rangers didn't pan out doesn't how that drafting an overager is a bad idea. It only shows that there is a low rate of success with picks as you get into the fourth round and beyond.

I'm not advocating for only picking overagers as you get into the later rounds but I see the logic of drafting a player on whom you have more data if you feel that data shows a greater likelihood of success than drafting an 18 year who may become another Brad Morrison.

Here's the thing: People think going for a 17/18 year old junior hockey player in the 6th round is a better shot than taking a 20-year old who already played pro-hockey for 2 years.

Lakatos may not have worked out, and Daniel Bernhardt is another example. But how many of the 60 players picked after Lakatos will even play pro-hockey? I'd be surprised if 10% of those have a pro-career better than Lakatos.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

If a GM only ever picked goalies from round 5 down I think he'd come out even

 

[Ranger Ric]

Following up on my post I found this article, which addresses the question of drafting overagers. Why overage players could be found money in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft

This is the key point in the article. Higher chance of success but lower ceiling.

"In the article, he came to the conclusion that drafting overage prospects beyond the 2nd round was a draft inefficiency, in that D+1 and D+2 players drafted between rounds 2-7 became full-time NHL players more often than prospects in their draft year. This line of thinking was also promoted by former London Knights Assistant GM, Jake Goldberg, who was recently hired by the Arizona Coyotes as their new Director of Hockey Operations.

Although overagers appear to become NHL players more often than those in their draft year, it’s important to note that they tend to have a lower ceiling."

I think the reference made by NYR2k2 is to a post I did. Sometime within the last year Adam Herman retweeted a post from a former OHL official who may now be working in the NHL. I think the original post said that after the third or fourth round (can't remember) drafted overage forwards had a higher rate of success than drafting 18 year olds. I don't think there was a reference to a study just a statement with that conclusion. Unfortunately I can't find either tweet but perhaps someone else can.

In any event I think the tweet makes sense. The point that Amazing K makes is the key. Relatively few draft picks from the fourth round on make it to the NHL as a regular. So if you have another year or two of data on a player's development you would expect to have a higher rate of success than picking an 18 year old. Look at Brad Morrison. 60 points in his 18 year old year and he looks like a very good 4th round draft pick. But then two more 60 point seasons and suddenly the pick doesn't look so good and he doesn't even get a contract offer. The fact that the overage picks selected by the Rangers didn't pan out doesn't how that drafting an overager is a bad idea. It only shows that there is a low rate of success with picks as you get into the fourth round and beyond.

I'm not advocating for only picking overagers as you get into the later rounds but I see the logic of drafting a player on whom you have more data if you feel that data shows a greater likelihood of success than drafting an 18 year who may become another Brad Morrison.

 

[Joey Bones]

http://www.howlings.net/2018/04/23/cantlons-corner-wolf-pack-season-review/

Shout out to @RangerBoy for posting this in the Minor League Thread, but I thought it was interesting in regards to Nieves and, namely, Tambellini.

Also mentions that Jed Ortmeyer could become the GM of Hartford next season....

 

[eco's bones]

I think the reference made by NYR2k2 is to a post I did. Sometime within the last year Adam Herman retweeted a post from a former OHL official who may now be working in the NHL. I think the original post said that after the third or fourth round (can't remember) drafted overage forwards had a higher rate of success than drafting 18 year olds. I don't think there was a reference to a study just a statement with that conclusion. Unfortunately I can't find either tweet but perhaps someone else can.

In any event I think the tweet makes sense. The point that Amazing K makes is the key. Relatively few draft picks from the fourth round on make it to the NHL as a regular. So if you have another year or two of data on a player's development you would expect to have a higher rate of success than picking an 18 year old. Look at Brad Morrison. 60 points in his 18 year old year and he looks like a very good 4th round draft pick. But then two more 60 point seasons and suddenly the pick doesn't look so good and he doesn't even get a contract offer. The fact that the overage picks selected by the Rangers didn't pan out doesn't how that drafting an overager is a bad idea. It only shows that there is a low rate of success with picks as you get into the fourth round and beyond.

I'm not advocating for only picking overagers as you get into the later rounds but I see the logic of drafting a player on whom you have more data if you feel that data shows a greater likelihood of success than drafting an 18 year who may become another Brad Morrison.

FWIW Morrison was considered one of the better sleeper picks in his draft year—so I’m not sure he’s the best example. That pick IMO wasn’t out of nowhere—it’s just the player didn’t progress and he didn’t work out. Then again I was surprised at the recent news that he was Asperger’s. Apart from that though he had NHL connections—his dad and I believe his brother in law is Josh Gorges. He would train with NHL’ers in the off season.

The point you were making though is a good one or at least I agree with it.

 

[nyr2k2]

I think the reference made by NYR2k2 is to a post I did. Sometime within the last year Adam Herman retweeted a post from a former OHL official who may now be working in the NHL. I think the original post said that after the third or fourth round (can't remember) drafted overage forwards had a higher rate of success than drafting 18 year olds. I don't think there was a reference to a study just a statement with that conclusion. Unfortunately I can't find either tweet but perhaps someone else can.

In any event I think the tweet makes sense. The point that Amazing K makes is the key. Relatively few draft picks from the fourth round on make it to the NHL as a regular. So if you have another year or two of data on a player's development you would expect to have a higher rate of success than picking an 18 year old. Look at Brad Morrison. 60 points in his 18 year old year and he looks like a very good 4th round draft pick. But then two more 60 point seasons and suddenly the pick doesn't look so good and he doesn't even get a contract offer. The fact that the overage picks selected by the Rangers didn't pan out doesn't how that drafting an overager is a bad idea. It only shows that there is a low rate of success with picks as you get into the fourth round and beyond.

I'm not advocating for only picking overagers as you get into the later rounds but I see the logic of drafting a player on whom you have more data if you feel that data shows a greater likelihood of success than drafting an 18 year who may become another Brad Morrison.

Yep that sounds right. Thanks for chiming in.

 

[nyr2k2]

Kingston avoided a sweep and won 5-2. Sean Day was the first star, with a goal and two assists.

 

[nyr2k2]

Day had 5 goals in 50 regular season games, and now has 4 in 15 playoff games.

 

[Lays]

That’s interesting, I certainly feel like every overage pick we’ve mad has been ass.

But once you get to the 4th round and later it should all be about straight up talent; like, Barron is the type of guy you’re looking for in the later rounds. You can find a million Lakatos’s Crawley’s or Virta’s in the UFA market. At least IMO.

Virta is doing really good this year I wouldn’t group him with those two (even Crawley wasn’t that bad of a pick) check out Virtas 2018 season highlights floating around on YouTube somewhere, I like him a lot

 

[Lays]

FWIW Morrison was considered one of the better sleeper picks in his draft year—so I’m not sure he’s the best example. That pick IMO wasn’t out of nowhere—it’s just the player didn’t progress and he didn’t work out. Then again I was surprised at the recent news that he was Asperger’s. Apart from that though he had NHL connections—his dad and I believe his brother in law is Josh Gorges. He would train with NHL’ers in the off season.

The point you were making though is a good one or at least I agree with it.

Wait what? Didn’t know that wow

 

[Joey Bones]

Think NYR picked up a good one!!

 

[kovazub94]

Kingston avoided a sweep and won 5-2. Sean Day was the first star, with a goal and two assists.

First star in a game to avoid elimination? I’ll take that!

 

[Edge]

Think NYR picked up a good one!!

Isn't his contract up?

 

[nyr2k2]

Isn't his contract up?

In October 2016 he signed a two-year extension. I'm not clear on whether that included the 2016-2017 campaign or started at the conclusion of the season. So he's either out of contract or under contract for another year. Eliteprospects lists his 2018-2019 team as TPS, so, we'll see.

 

[Lion Hound]

http://www.howlings.net/2018/04/23/cantlons-corner-wolf-pack-season-review/

Shout out to @RangerBoy for posting this in the Minor League Thread, but I thought it was interesting in regards to Nieves and, namely, Tambellini.

Also mentions that Jed Ortmeyer could become the GM of Hartford next season....

That was sort of out of left field with Nieves and Tambellini being dealt at the draft. Wonder if he is just speculating or if there is some validity to this? Maybe they will accompany a roster player in a larger deal?

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Think NYR picked up a good one!!

Pretty terrible league though. He needs to make his way to NA and play in the AHL and see what he can do here.