GDT: RagCar

[What the Faulk]

Corsi is clearly useful, but it has never been the only thing. The Canes clearly are a great possession team 5v5 but lack great (although it's better now) goaltending and lack finishers, suck in OT/Shoot outs, and struggle on the PP. Similar story to prior years.

There is so much parity in the league right now that it doesn't take much to move a team from a playoff to non-playoff team.

Right. It's an indicator. It's not a 1:1 causation for success, and nobody is claiming it to be.

 

[aufheben]

How do you do, fellow Metropolitan division rivals?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Oh, we are gonna Corsi you *so hard*.

It'll be almost worth it when we lose in the shootout.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Honestly, though, if there are other variables to optimize for, Tulsky is the guy to find them. The fact that we're this competitive when we're $15m under the cap is pretty impressive, actually.

This.

If the Canes make the ECF, there will be a movie made called "Money-Puck"

All this proves is that Corsi is yet another sports fad. Like WAR in baseball. You need batters with high averages and lots of HRs. You need pitchers with low ERA. Now get off my lawn.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This.

If the Canes make the ECF, there will be a movie made called "Money-Puck"

All this proves is that Corsi is yet another sports fad.

It's not a fad at all. The ability to analyze and interpret sources of data is occurring throughout the world, not just sports. Companies are investing billions in this area. This type of analysis will continue to evolve and become more complex and more meaningful as time goes on so "corsi" may not be as relevant, but the approach will continue to be used. It doesn't mean (nor did it ever mean) that there will be 1 metric that is a be all, end all, but analyzing data and trends and using that data to assist in decision making is here to stay.

 

[Negan4Coach]

It's not a fad at all. The ability to analyze and interpret sources of data is occurring throughout the world, not just sports. Companies are investing billions in this area. This type of analysis will continue to evolve and become more complex and more meaningful as time goes on so "corsi" may not be as relevant, but the approach will continue to be used. It doesn't mean (nor did it ever mean) that there will be 1 metric that is a be all, end all, but analyzing data and trends and using that data to assist in decision making is here to stay.

Yeah, don't lecture me on analytics. I sell analytical software for IBM.

This paticular analytic seems flawed. By definition- if the worst teams in the league have great Corsi- and a team like NJ who is winning all the time despite shit Corsi- then it is highly overrated as a metric of success, and it is as highly touted on here as WAR is for baseball.

I'm not against using statistics or analysis of data- but I prefer bread and butter metrics to new and fantastical ones. And newly discovered correlations often become faddish and cultish. I've seen the same sort of thing with intelligence anaylsis in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Our really neat program called Palantir shows us a histogram where most of the IEDs go off right around 0800 in this town..."

"Yeah...that'd be because 0800 is when the Engineers start their route clearance patrol..."

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Recent Corsi data predict future wins better than recent wins.

NJ is lucky, actually very lucky. They will regress hard, and I'm glad the canes don't have to face the devils during their hot streak.

 

[geehaad]

Is WAR the acronym for the “gets on base” metric that Billy Bean went after?

 

[What the Faulk]

^ WAR is wins above replacement, but I haven't done a deep dive into that yet. It's relatively new to hockey. Publicly, at least.

This paticular analytic seems flawed. By definition- if the worst teams in the league have great Corsi- and a team like NJ who is winning all the time despite **** Corsi- then it is highly overrated as a metric of success, and it is as highly touted on here as WAR is for baseball.

There have been like 20 games played (I've hardly even looked at any of these charts myself yet) and there are always outliers. But, over the long haul, it's a pretty good indicator. Anyone using it as a sole metric is using it incorrectly (as mentioned several times in this thread).

 

[Stickpucker]

 

[Stickpucker]

How do you do, fellow Metropolitan division rivals?

well this is awkward. We're so bad we haven't had rivals in a while...does that mean we're getting better or you're getting worse

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah, don't lecture me on analytics. I sell analytical software for IBM.

So, you sell analytical software for IBM and you fail to recognize that this type of analysis, even in sports, is here to stay? Interesting.

This paticular analytic seems flawed. By definition- if the worst teams in the league have great Corsi- and a team like NJ who is winning all the time despite **** Corsi- then it is highly overrated as a metric of success, and it is as highly touted on here as WAR is for baseball

That's because based on your posting, you seem to imply that Corsi is a be all, end all metric. It's not, it's a metric created based on the data that is readily available and it's useful, but by no means foolproof (especially when we are only 20 games in). It started simply with shots, now we are seeing other metrics creep in such as quality of competition, location of shots/heat maps, etc.. It's by no means a perfect metric right now, but you are kidding yourself if you think gathering, analyzing and interpreting data like this, and more data as methods to gather it are improved, are a fad.

When Peters was asked about this, and he's as old school as it gets, he said something along the lines of "We use the data to see if there are things we might be missing on our own, and to validate that what we see on our own is backed up by data." (paraphrased).

 

[Novacane]

I will be on a plane for at least the first period but a win would be quite splendid

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Yeah, don't lecture me on analytics. I sell analytical software for IBM.

Easy there, super smart guy. There's a few super smart guys on here.

Including some that write the kind of software you sell.

 

[The Faulker 27]

The only place I don't think data analysis would be helpful is marriage.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So at the 20 game mark, here is how the Canes stack up. The ones in red are where they are below league average.

Points %: .579 (12th best in NHL, 6th best in the East)
SF/GP: 35.4 (2nd best in NHL)
GF/GP: 2.95 (17th best in NHL)
SA/GP: 29.2 (3rd best in NHL)
GA/GP: 2.68 (7th best in NHL)
5v5 CF%: 55.3% (1st in NHL)
5v5 GF%: 54.7% (5th best in NHL)
PP%: 15.4% (27th best in NHL)
PK%: 80.8% (14th best in NHL)
FO%: 52.5% (3rd best in NHL)
5v5 SV%: 92.2% (15th best in NHL)
5v5 SH%: 7.71 (16th best in NHL)
Canes have also had lost 2 and won 0 games in OT and are 1-2 in Shoot-outs.

 

[Breakdowns]

our PP is at 15%? damn, feels more like 10%.

Easy there, super smart guy. There's a few super smart guys on here.

Including some that write the kind of software you sell.

in what language do you write them?

 

[Wolfpuck]

That was fast

 

[Breakdowns]

that was fast

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Bad Pesce

 

[Lucky Lindy]

Not an optimal start.

 

[Breakdowns]

there are more Rangers fans in arena than Canes?

 

[Joe McGrath]

The f*** was Pesce doing on that goal?

 

[Wolfpuck]

Blind passes to nowhere

 

[AD Skinner]

Pesce baby what is you doin