Prospect Info: Quick 2020 Post-Lottery Mock

[nugg]

Couldn’t agree more.

He’s the exact type of dman we need to compliment guys like Severson, Smith and any other offensively oriented dman.

There’s like 4 months left before the draft in October, so I would think that by that time, people we’ll get more familiar with the talent and the upside of Jake Sanderson.

I know that some leagues might be playing while others might not. In this unusual draft, we might be able to see players start their draft +1 seasons before we pick em. Sanderson will be a college freshman this fall. North Dakota.

 

[StevenToddIves]

What happened to shakir mukhamadullin being one of the best defenseman potentially

Personally, I over-ranked Mukhamadullin early on in the process. He's a very polarizing player right now, as much as any D in this draft. I love his potential -- he skates well, while offering size, physicality and a very good shot from the point.

At times, Mukhamadullin can look very, very good. But the second half of the season he played mostly KHL minutes and was almost disturbingly timid and disengaged. It's almost as if you watch him and wonder which Mukhamadullin will show up that game, or if he'll show up at all.

I would still take a chance on him in the draft, but not in the first round or early in the second. I still think highly of his upside, but I now think there's some risk there I didn't see early on in the evaluation process.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sanderson reminds me of Noah hanifin

I would say Hanifin is more athletic (which is saying a lot, Sanderson is a tremendous athlete), but Sanderson is more assertive and has a better understanding of the game at the same age.

I like Hanifin. I think he's a good, second-pairing NHL defenseman combining good defense with capable offense. But due to his insane combination of skating and size, he leaves many critics wanting more. As Hanifin is now 24 and skating for his second team, you wonder if there's still another level for him to reach, or if what you see is what you get.

Sanderson is a toolsy, smart, character 2-way D who is one of the youngest players in his draft class. As his draft-eligible season wore on, he showed a higher upward development curve than any defenseman in the draft, especially on the offensive end. This, while being hands-down the best defensive defenseman in the 2020 class -- I'd say only Schneider is even close.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I am still on board with Sanderson/Holtz at 7 then follow that up with Lundell with the AZ pick..

Crosby
Malkin
Staal

Hischier
Hughes
Lundell

Also it will be gold if we drafted a Fin who ends up being better than Kakko.

I'd say the odds of Lundell scoring close to as much as Kakko will are very low. I think it is possible, however, that he becomes better than Kotkaniemi.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's fine if you have a gut feeling regarding that.

I feel the same way, now that you mention it.

It's not that Sanderson won't be a good defenseman. I'm sure he will but is he worth drafting high?

I don't think he is and I hope some other team is fooled and takes him before us so we won't possibly end up with another Larsson situation.

I have absolutely no problem with your preferring a F with the #7 pick. That being said, comparing Sanderson with Larsson is a huge stretch and unfair to Sanderson. Not much in common between those two players, or the Devils situation in either draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Couldn’t agree more.

He’s the exact type of dman we need to compliment guys like Severson, Smith and any other offensively oriented dman.

There’s like 4 months left before the draft in October, so I would think that by that time, people we’ll get more familiar with the talent and the upside of Jake Sanderson.

Sanderson's offensive upside is far higher than Severson's. I think he would be a perfect compliment for Smith, who seems to prefer the right side despite being a left shot.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I can definitely see this scenario as GM’s have weight each prospects qualities and characteristics differently. If he is there, that’s great for us, if he’s not I won’t be surprised

if he’s there do you think it’s a no brainer that jersey takes him ?

No, but I would want them to.

Personally, I would take either Drysdale or Sanderson at #7, were they available (I don't think they will be). I think the Devils did an outstanding job collecting depth defensemen in the 2019 draft, but outside of potentially Ty Smith, they have no high-end, 25+ minute D anywhere in the organization.

Also, the 2020 class is loaded with high-upside Fs. Defense is a lot thinner. There's a big drop-off from D once Drysdale and Sanderson are gone, and the second tier (to me) is just two players as well, Guhle and Schneider. I expect all 4 to be gone in the top 15 picks.

With Fs it's a different story. Sure I love Alexander Holtz (he's a stud), but if you miss out on him there are potential top line RWs available all over the place later in the first round -- Quinn, Mercer, Jarvis, Perreault. If you miss out on those top 2 D it's a different story. You're either not picking any D until the later rounds, or you're reaching a bit for Guhle with the Arizona pick.

 

[Forge]

I asked Steven Ives about him a while ago, he doubts highly that Ryder will last past the second round. It's a shame because we don't have a 2nd, and I'm not sure what the situation is with that Carolina pick in the Vatanen trade, can it become a third? If not then no third at all either. He didn't have very good numbers in the USHL but stats don't always tell the story.

I'd be surprised if he went in the second, but it wouldn't be the weirdest thing ever if he landed at the tail end of the round. I just think the third round is probably going to be his sweet spot, but I'd predict in the back half of that round as well.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The Devils have consistently traded down if they feel they like a player in a lower tier (McLeod, Blackwood, Okhotyuk). Would it be a problem if they traded down into the 20s to take that Defenseman but picked up a 2nd rounder or whatever value the trade down was worth?

Let's say the Devils get the Vancouver pick at #18. And -- as you suggest -- they trade down for, say the #28 and #38 picks (I'm just picking numbers which end in 8, but it seems reasonable).

If the Devils were to take a D with intriguing potential in Justin Barron at #28 and then get a high-upside F at #38 like Mysak or Khusnutdinov, I'd of course be fine with it. But the next question would of course be, who is available at #18? If the Devils were passing up on a potential game-breaker like Seth Jarvis or Hendrix Lapierre, I would not be so pleased.

It's a good question, but a tough one to answer without context.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Holtz would probably(*crossing my fingers*) be available at 10.

How about drafting Rossi at 7? (he could drop; *crossing my fingers again*)

Then you have Rossi and Holtz.

Can never go wrong with more High-end talent at Forward. NEVER.

And if we want a D-man, we could get one with Vancouver's pick (Guhle?) who would still be eons better than the garbage we have now and while he's not the NHL's new proverbial "golden boy of the moment"(Sanderson), I think the point of a D-man is to get the job done defensively (and someone like Guhle or someone else can do just that).

Plus, Guhle is 6'2!

The odds of Holtz lasting until #10 are very low. Two things would have to happen.

1)Teams drafting Fs in the top 10 would all have to prefer the other smaller, highly ranked guys, and there are two teams drafting which perennially covet size (Anaheim, Ottawa) and two which desperately need a goal-scoring RW for their top centers (Devils, Buffalo).

2)Askarov would have to go in the top 10, as would Sanderson. Though I think Sanderson will go higher than anyone imagines, I can't see any team in the top 8 taking Askarov. It would likely have to be with the "mystery team" who will draft #9 overall.

So, yes it is possible. But very unlikely.

 

[StevenToddIves]

we need both dmen and goalscorers. do we even have goalscorers in our system? I don't recall having those types of players. Graeme Clarke scored a ton in 2018, but what else do we have? This is the argument for drafting a shoot-first type of player.

I don't disagree we need dmen though - after all the dust settled on drafted players, the only true prospects we have at an NHL level are Okhotyuk, Misyul, Vukojevic, McCarthy, Smith, Zaitsev, Walsh, and Hellickson. Half of those are from last draft and we can assume a bunch of them won't pan out. That being said, we have subban, sevo, and butcher all signed for 21-22, and also ty smith. that's theoretically the top 4 squared away for those two years, but we have a ton of question marks after that.
-----------
if we have two 1st rders, i think we should get a forward and a dman, but the question is, do we take a goalscoring threat (if he's available) 1st, and then a lower tier dman in the 10s, or do we pick one of the (if available) top 2 dmen, and then go with a tier 4 forward? which brings better net value?

I'd say that my dream draft right now is Drysdale or Sanderson at #7, Quinn or Mercer with the Arizona pick and then Lapierre, Jarvis or Amirov with the Vancouver pick. I guess it's okay to dream.

 

[Nico Hischier]

Sanderson's offensive upside is far higher than Severson's. I think he would be a perfect compliment for Smith, who seems to prefer the right side despite being a left shot.

I thought Bahl-Smith was a thing for wjc

Sanderson-severson
Bahl-Smith

would be nice

would also be nice if one of the several other d we have drafted recently break out and become an nhl player

I’m split on Sanderson/drysdale or a forward. I would be happy with anyone we pick at 7. I wouldn’t be upset if we draft Askarov. Only player that I would somewhat be disappointed with is Lundell, just get Zacha vibes from him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves
how big is the talent drop off from Sanderson to Guhle/Schneider versus Perfetti/Holtz to Quinn/Zary/Jarvis/Mercer?

I would say it's bigger drop-off on D from Drysdale/Sanderson (it's really close between the two of them) to Guhle, then Schneider.

Though I love Perfetti and Holtz (I can't praise them enough), that quartet of forwards you mentioned all has huge potential. I see Zary as a very effective, two-way second-line C (and you can say the same about Lundell). Though Mercer and Jarvis are usually listed as centers, I think their NHL futures are as first line RWs. And Quinn's pure goal-scoring ability is not too far behind Holtz's, while he also features a very good all-around game (like Holtz).

 

[Nico Hischier]

There is also a possibility that both Sanderson and drysdale get drafted ahead of 7

I think the top defenseman prospects for 2021 draft are supposed to be very very good with both jack Hughes’s brother and Graeme Clarke’s brother

 

[StevenToddIves]

The thing is, I actually like what Sanderson brings, and I think his skill set is something we need. We drafted a bunch of shut down guys last year, and we have a bunch of offensive players between Smith, Walsh, etc, but we don't have someone who can do both. I just kind of wish Sanderson was a RHD where we pretty much have Walsh and McCarthy as our only real prospects, and we're loaded on the left with those shut down guys and Smith.

People need to keep in mind that Smith prefers the right side. It's rare for a defenseman, and there's no way to speculate on how the incoming new NJ coaching staff will feel about it.

If the Devils draft Sanderson, I think the future NJ top pairing is Sanderson-Smith. If the Devils draft Drysdale, I think the future top pairing is Bahl-Drysdale and Smith slots down to the second pair. Although Drysdale and Smith would certainly be a tandem on the top PP unit.

 

[StevenToddIves]

My real question is are there any kids of former nhl players in this draft and if so where are they ranked!?

Oh, I really want the Devils to take Mason Langenbrunner in the 7th round. Like really, really badly. More on that later.

 

[StevenToddIves]

There’s no denying that Holtz is a sniper but what worries me is that if he’s not scoring at a rampant pace, I don’t see him bringing much else to the table.

This is a false narrative which seems to be going around about Holtz. He is a very capable two-way player, better at puck retrieval than most pure snipers, has very good vision and an admirable compete level. His other undeniable asset is that he is a tremendous puck-handler. We're not talking just a kid who looks for the shot every time. He can drop a shoulder and weave himself into better scoring position. He can dish and he's smart. Alexander Holtz can beat you in a whole lot of ways.

 

[nugg]

Oh, I really want the Devils to take Mason Langenbrunner in the 7th round. Like really, really badly. More on that later.

Cool, there's one I hadn't heard about.

 

[StevenToddIves]

So Idk how the Sweden system works...but if he was "overmatched" shouldn't they just send him down a tier? Why keep him up and play him negligible minutes. I was under impression he played well, when given the minutes. It was just the minutes that was the issue.

I could not venture to tell you what the Frolunda management was thinking. I just know that I did not come away from a single one of their games this year thinking -- wow, Raymond! This made me sad, because he was the reason I was watching them in the first place. You need to watch Raymond's international competition against players his own age to really see what he is capable of.

But to get back to your point -- no Raymond did not suck in the SHL. He's extremely smart and has a very good all-around game. He was far from a liability for Frolunda. But he also did not play like a player who many had ranked at #2 overall in their pre-season rankings, or have ranked #4 overall now.

Will he be better than Rossi, Perfetti and Holtz in four years? That's the scouts job to figure out. Maybe he will, it's certainly not beyond comprehension.

But if you had to win a game right now? Raymond would be a no-brainer for the fourth guy you'd take out of those players. That's the reason why I have him ranked behind the other trio -- the other three also have tremendous upside, and they're just better right now. This is not a knock on Raymond -- I'd be thrilled if the Devils got him at #7. It would mean the scouts believed wholeheartedly he will really be that good. I do too, but like I said -- I have him a tick below (in order) Rossi, Perfetti and Holtz.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If Drysdale falls to 7 i would be very surprised and I would expect the devils would be waiting to blurt out his name to draft him if he is available.

I've said this before, but it's not that far-fetched. Detroit likely taking a F, then the Devils pick is preceded by Ottawa and Anaheim, both run by "old school" GMs who haven't drafted a player under 6'0 in the first round in years. Both front offices which prefer physical play on the ice. If one of those teams (it would likely be Ottawa) take a F at #5, I sincerely believe the Ducks would draft Sanderson over Drysdale. This would leave Drysdale to the Devils at #7.

 

[Nubmer6]

I've said this before, but it's not that far-fetched. Detroit likely taking a F, then the Devils pick is preceded by Ottawa and Anaheim, both run by "old school" GMs who haven't drafted a player under 6'0 in the first round in years. Both front offices which prefer physical play on the ice. If one of those teams (it would likely be Ottawa) take a F at #5, I sincerely believe the Ducks would draft Sanderson over Drysdale. This would leave Drysdale to the Devils at #7.

I have little doubt that I'll like whoever we draft at 7. The question for me is who we can snag at 11. I really want Quinn there.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I thought Bahl-Smith was a thing for wjc

Sanderson-severson
Bahl-Smith

would be nice

would also be nice if one of the several other d we have drafted recently break out and become an nhl player

I’m split on Sanderson/drysdale or a forward. I would be happy with anyone we pick at 7. I wouldn’t be upset if we draft Askarov. Only player that I would somewhat be disappointed with is Lundell, just get Zacha vibes from him.

There are indeed similarities between Lundell and Zacha -- both physically mature Cs with terrific shots and very good two-way games who lack in high-end vision. I would say that Lundell is more advanced at the same age, he's a very high IQ player and extremely positionally sound.

Lundell is a huge wild card at this draft. I think he's also comparable in many ways to Jersperi Kotkaniemi, whom the Canadiens picked third overall very recently. I would not be shocked if he went as high as #5 to Ottawa because "big-bodied, intelligent two-way center", and I would also not be shocked if he fell to the late teens because of questions about his scoring upside. It will be fun to watch and see how it shakes out.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I have little doubt that I'll like whoever we draft at 7. The question for me is who we can snag at 11. I really want Quinn there.

If the Devils get one of Sanderson/Drysdale at #7 and then Quinn at 11, I will be a very happy dude.

 

[Jabs102501]

Honestly, I'm kind of wishing we had a 2nd round pick right now. There are a lot interesting defenseman available such as Joni Jurmo, William Wallinder(probably not), Helge Grans, Villeneuve, and Justin Barron.

 

[My3Sons]

If the Devils get one of Sanderson/Drysdale at #7 and then Quinn at 11, I will be a very happy dude.

So if the top three goes as expected and picks five and six are biased towards bigger players (say Sanderson and Holtz) that makes DET at 4 the wildcard. I’ve read some comments that they have a solid future at RD with Sieder and Hronek. How likely is Yzerman to prefer a forward to maybe allow Drysdale to drop?