Prospect Info: Quick 2020 Post-Lottery Mock

StevenToddIves

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Hey, guys. Sorry I've been AWOL. I'm not dead, as some of my friends have worried. With my NYC bartending career, um... "on hold", I decided to use the pandemic to write a 300-page novel. Which amounted to about 12-14 hours of writing per day for three months, which led to you guys being sorely neglected during Draft Season. My apologies. But hopefully it will lead to a reasonable pay day, since I don't think I'll be able to make Brooklyn rent working in bars for the next year or two. Covid really kicked us in the nuts.

Of course, I watched the lottery last night, over beers and pizza with a good buddy of mine who is a huge Detroit fan. I was not upset about falling from #6 to #7. I wish I could say the same about my friend. He was less than pleased with the Wings plummet from #1 to #4. I felt sad for him.

I'll try to get out a full mock after the order is set, and I'll of course have a full top 62 or 93 ranking out by draft day. And you guys can (as always) email me ([email protected]) if you want me to get on here and answer any questions. So, here goes:

1) ??? LW Alex Lafreniere the lottery sure made things interesting, right? Can you imagine surefire franchise stud Lafreniere lining up alongside Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby or Auston Matthews next year? Well, it could happen. All I can say is: please don't be #@$%ing Arizona.

2)LA C Quinton Byfield in my mind, the Kings possess the best prospect pool in the NHL -- and the lottery luck just made it a whooooole lot better. The idea of being able to ice a top line in three years of Byfield-Turcotte- Kaliyev is simply disgusting. Though Byfield is younger than Lafreniere and far less polished, his inimitable combination of size/speed/athleticism/shot/hands gives him the highest upside in this entire draft. You're talking a Jack Eichel-type talent here.

3)OTT C/LW Tim Stutzle otherworldly combination of skating and hands and vision, a la a kid named Hughes in the 2019 draft. As questionable as Senators management has been in the past half-decade, they still draft well. Stutzle gives them the sublime offensive talent to build around.

4)DET C Marco Rossi I think this choice comes down to Rossi or Perfetti. No one values hockey sense in their draft philosophy so much as Wings GM Steve Yzerman. I'm going to go with two-way force Rossi here, since he has the upside of an even more dynamic Brayden Point, whom Yzerman hit a grand slam with while running Tampa Bay a few drafts back.

5)OTT RD Jamie Drysdale the Senators have a stud young LD in Thomas Chabot, and two very good RD prospects in Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson. Although I can also see them going for a scoring winger like Alex Holtz here, I think they would have a tough time passing up on a potential Makar-clone in Drysdale to give them future #1-type D on both the left and right side.

6)ANH LD Jake Sanderson the most (bizarrely) criticized player among draft pundits in the 2020 class, Sanderson has unwittingly become a lightning rod for the scouting vs. analytics set. To me, he's Ryan Suter 2.0 with better wheels, and NHL GMs drool over kids like this. He's going far higher than his consensus ranking, and the Ducks have the two elements -- need for D prospects and "old-school" GM -- which will put him near the top of their draft list.

7)DEVILS LW/C Cole Perfetti if the draft shakes up the way I imagine it, this NJ choice would come down to the pure sniper (Holtz) vs. Perfetti -- an ice-in-his-veins scoring monster with hockey sense as good as we've seen in years. Were Perfetti two inches taller or a tick faster, he'd be a top three pick; his hands and vision are that good. He has eyes not just in the back of his head, but pretty much all around his head. I know that's a lot of eyes. I also know that the Devils may want some more size and pure shooting skill on the wing alongside Nico and Hughes, which could sway them towards Holtz. But I'm leaning towards the Devils taking Perfetti here, and then using a later first-round pick (Arizona, Vancouver) on a sniping RW like Jack Quinn, Dawson Mercer or Jacob Perreault.

8)BUF RW Alexander Holtz the Sabres have a new GM and a desperate need to surround Jack Eichel with some talented top-line wingers -- or risk losing their franchise player. Holtz is closer to the NHL than Raymond and more of a pure scorer. He also has good size, skates and an admirably polished all-around game. He's exactly what they need in Buffalo.

9)??? W Lucas Raymond it's tough not to fall in love with this kids's upside -- Raymond is an unbelievable skater with high-end vision, passing and scoring skills. He's good two ways and not soft despite being undersized. But, the writers who have ranked him in their top 4 have banked more on potential than performance after a decidedly underwhelming draft-eligible season. Raymond is likely two to three years away from the NHL, further than most of the kids in an extremely gifted 2020 top 10. I think he goes top 10, but I can't see him being taken over more polished/proven commodities like Perfetti and Rossi.
 

Pitaya

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Isnt Perfetti’a skating an issue? People are saying hes a mediocre skater which, at his level, could mean hes just a flat out bad skater at the NHL level.

Obviously id like the guy with the better hockey sense though, and Perfetti wreaks of higher potential than Holtz for that reason alone
 
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PKs Broken Stick

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Also let's not act like Perfetti is some slouch in the goal scoring department. He's a sniper too, but also a very good playmaker. His only downside is his skating. I think Perfetti may be a realistic choice so I'm gunna take a closer look at him.

I can't imagine it would be any worse than Gusev, considering he's been playing in NA his whole life as opposed to Gusev who's been playing in bigger rinks so the adjustment was massive (and he still adjusted). I think it will be fine tbh.
 
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Goptor

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Jun 30, 2016
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What are the chances of the Devils challenging the league for a chance at 1st OA via Vancouver?

There's been a lot of Lou talk recently and I'm pretty sure he would be challenging the wording in the rulebook. There still isn't a GM in place to put up an argument though.
 

StevenToddIves

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Isnt Perfetti’a skating an issue? People are saying hes a mediocre skater which, at his level, could mean hes just a flat out bad skater at the NHL level.

Obviously id like the guy with the better hockey sense though, and Perfetti wreaks of higher potential than Holtz for that reason alone

I would describe Perfetti's skating as "good but not great". His speed is slightly above average, but his his lateral quickness and agility are both excellent. No one is saying it's an inhibiting factor to his game, but many in the scouting community want their 5'10, offensive dynamic Fs to be speed demons.

To be honest, I do too. I give more weight to skating acuity than most people in the draft analysis community. But Perfetti's hockey sense is pretty much a super power. I'd say he is tied for second in that category for the class of 2020 (alongside Rossi, trailing only Lafreniere). His passing, shooting and vision are all elite traits.

I have little doubt that Cole Perfetti will be an offensive weapon at the NHL. I think he translates more to a first-line LW as opposed to C, which is how he's usually listed. His combination of ridiculous hockey sense/skill-set compares to a player like Kucherov, although they are stylistically different players. Nothing not to like here.
 

StevenToddIves

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why would you not want it to be arizona? I wouldn't mind it.

If Arizona wins the lottery, the Devils 2020 first-rounder becomes a 2021 first-rounder. Granted, the the pick is not lottery-protected in 2021 and Coyotes are not a good team -- their record after the Taylor Hall trade was appreciably worse than the Devils record was in that same time-span.

However, the addition of Lafreniere would make the Coyotes a lot better heading into next year, and pushing the top pick back a season pushes back the Devils' rebuild.

Best case scenario is that the Coyotes pick winds up in the 10-12 range and the Devils come away with a top scoring RW like Jack Quinn or Dawson Mercer.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Also let's not act like Perfetti is some slouch in the goal scoring department. He's a sniper too, but also a very good playmaker. His only downside is his skating. I think Perfetti may be a realistic choice so I'm gunna take a closer look at him.

I can't imagine it would be any worse than Gusev, considering he's been playing in NA his whole life as opposed to Gusev who's been playing in bigger rinks so the adjustment was massive (and he still adjusted). I think it will be fine tbh.

I'll be repeating this a lot, I feel, but -- Perfetti's skating is NOT a downside or issue. It's good but not great. His straightaway speed is far from electrifying, but his agility and edge work are excellent. When you consider the rest of his enormous skill-set (I agree with you on his shooting, it's fantastic), he's going to be a huge offensive producer at the NHL level.
 
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StevenToddIves

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What are the chances of the Devils challenging the league for a chance at 1st OA via Vancouver?

There's been a lot of Lou talk recently and I'm pretty sure he would be challenging the wording in the rulebook. There still isn't a GM in place to put up an argument though.

I would like to just give the job to Fitzgerald. I feel he's done a great job as interim GM.
 

MartyOwns

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Hey, guys. Sorry I've been AWOL. I'm not dead, as some of my friends have worried. With my NYC bartending career, um... "on hold", I decided to use the pandemic to write a 300-page novel.

how you uh, how you comin' on that novel you're working on, huh? gotta a big, uh, big stack of papers there? gotta, gotta nice little story you're working on there? your big novel you've been working on for three years? huh? gotta, gotta compelling protagonist? yeah? gotta obstacle for him to overcome huh? little story brewing there? working on, working on that for quite some time huh? yeah, talking about that three years ago. been working on that the whole time? nice little narrative? beginning, middle, and end? some friends become enemies, some enemies become friends? at the end your main character is richer from the experience? yeah yeah no, no, you deserve some time off.
 

StevenToddIves

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how you uh, how you comin' on that novel you're working on, huh? gotta a big, uh, big stack of papers there? gotta, gotta nice little story you're working on there? your big novel you've been working on for three years? huh? gotta, gotta compelling protagonist? yeah? gotta obstacle for him to overcome huh? little story brewing there? working on, working on that for quite some time huh? yeah, talking about that three years ago. been working on that the whole time? nice little narrative? beginning, middle, and end? some friends become enemies, some enemies become friends? at the end your main character is richer from the experience? yeah yeah no, no, you deserve some time off.

Haha, tough crowd.

I finished it two days ago. I've spent the last two days drinking beer and watching hockey film as my brain decompresses.
 

Forge

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To lose the pick until next year? The odds that pick will be higher next year aren't good enough for a years time of a prospects development. No way.

100% agreement with you. I'm fine with taking that shot on Vancouver. I want that AZ pick between 9-11 though. Hell, at 9, we could still end up with the likes of Sanderson + top forward, or two top forwards, or however you want to do it.
 
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Forge

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how you uh, how you comin' on that novel you're working on, huh? gotta a big, uh, big stack of papers there? gotta, gotta nice little story you're working on there? your big novel you've been working on for three years? huh? gotta, gotta compelling protagonist? yeah? gotta obstacle for him to overcome huh? little story brewing there? working on, working on that for quite some time huh? yeah, talking about that three years ago. been working on that the whole time? nice little narrative? beginning, middle, and end? some friends become enemies, some enemies become friends? at the end your main character is richer from the experience? yeah yeah no, no, you deserve some time off.

I wish I could like this multiple times.
 

Auto Pilot

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Glad I’m not the only one that thinks Sanderson game is like Suters. A master of none just good all around, while like you said having much better skating. I’d say the skating of Keith mixed with Suters game. That’s actually a damn good prospect and I’m hoping the Ducks don’t go after him and we do. Also hoping Arizona gets 9th and we can use it on him there and keep to the pick you said we might go at 7th.
 
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StevenToddIves

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100% agreement with you. I'm fine with taking that shot on Vancouver. I want that AZ pick between 9-11 though. Hell, at 9, we could still end up with the likes of Sanderson + top forward, or two top forwards, or however you want to do it.

If the Devils wind up with the #7 and #9 picks, it's going to be celebration day on these boards. That would simply be amazing. The top 9 in the 2020 draft class is just outstanding.
 

Forge

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Glad I’m not the only one that thinks Sanderson game is like Suters. A master of none just good all around, while like you said having much better skating. I’d say the skating of Keith mixed with Suters game. That’s actually a damn good prospect and I’m hoping the Ducks don’t go after him and we do. Also hoping Arizona gets 9th and we can use it on him there and keep to the pick you said we might go at 7th.

I won't be apoplectic if we take him at 7...I think he's a fine prospect. I just don't have him at 7. But it's really splitting hairs. I mean, if I have a guy at 10 and we take him at 7, is it that big of a deal? Not really.
 

StevenToddIves

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Glad I’m not the only one that thinks Sanderson game is like Suters. A master of none just good all around, while like you said having much better skating. I’d say the skating of Keith mixed with Suters game. That’s actually a damn good prospect and I’m hoping the Ducks don’t go after him and we do. Also hoping Arizona gets 9th and we can use it on him there and keep to the pick you said we might go at 7th.

Sanderson is an absolute stud. I have him neck-and-neck with Drysdale as the best D in the draft. If the Devils came away from the 2020 draft with a top F (Holtz/Perfetti/Raymond/Rossi) and a top D (Sanderson/Drysdale) it would be a huge boost to the future of the franchise.
 

PKs Broken Stick

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If Arizona wins the lottery, the Devils 2020 first-rounder becomes a 2021 first-rounder. Granted, the the pick is not lottery-protected in 2021 and Coyotes are not a good team -- their record after the Taylor Hall trade was appreciably worse than the Devils record was in that same time-span.

However, the addition of Lafreniere would make the Coyotes a lot better heading into next year, and pushing the top pick back a season pushes back the Devils' rebuild.

Best case scenario is that the Coyotes pick winds up in the 10-12 range and the Devils come away with a top scoring RW like Jack Quinn or Dawson Mercer.

I don't think Lafreniere will make a difference at all in year 1, if I were tbh.
 
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PKs Broken Stick

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What are the chances of the Devils challenging the league for a chance at 1st OA via Vancouver?

There's been a lot of Lou talk recently and I'm pretty sure he would be challenging the wording in the rulebook. There still isn't a GM in place to put up an argument though.

Was the pick not top 3 protected? Also, did they technically make the playoffs? idk.

In my (maybe biased) opinion...the qualifiers should still count as playoffs. Otherwise, every team should have been given chance to play in "qualifiers"....or you know, only the 7 teams should've been in the lottery to begin with.
 
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Devils731

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Jun 23, 2008
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Was the pick not top 3 protected? Also, did they technically make the playoffs? idk.

In my (maybe biased) opinion...the qualifiers should still count as playoffs. Otherwise, every team should have been given chance to play in "qualifiers"....or you know, only the 7 teams should've been in the lottery to begin with.

The Vancouver pick stays in Vancouver if they miss the playoffs.

If Vancouver loses the play-in round then they’ll keep their pick this year, lottery win or not.

No arbiter would listen to this case and decide that Vancouver somehow made the playoffs but was still part of the lottery process for non-playoff teams.
 
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Emperoreddy

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Was the pick not top 3 protected? Also, did they technically make the playoffs? idk.

In my (maybe biased) opinion...the qualifiers should still count as playoffs. Otherwise, every team should have been given chance to play in "qualifiers"....or you know, only the 7 teams should've been in the lottery to begin with.

Its not protected because we only get it this year if we make the playoffs.

The challenge would be that the play in games count as "playoffs" (the current ruling is they do not). So we should get their pick no matter where it falls.

The same challenge could be used for Arizona's 2nd if they win their play in series.

Its also fruitless hypotheticals as the league I doubt budges on this, and I am not sure we are even playing those games
 

Jersey Fresh

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I'd love to come away with Sanderson too...just not at #7 with any of the second tier forwards on the board.

The only way it makes sense is if the AZ pick is at #9/10 and you're guaranteed one of the leftover fwds anyway.
 

Nubmer6

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I'd love to come away with Sanderson too...just not at #7 with any of the second tier forwards on the board.

The only way it makes sense is if the AZ pick is at #9/10 and you're guaranteed one of the leftover fwds anyway.
Pick 10 is the cut-off for me. Having the AZ pick possibly (probably?) pushed to 11 is a big issue for me. It puts us in a position where we miss out on someone I really want to draft unless someone ahead of us picks Askarov.
 
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