Euro: QF: Belgium v Italy, 7/2/2021

[Savi]

Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
Kickoff: 15:00 EST, 21:00 CET

Belgium
- Group B winner (3-0)
- Beat

Russia 3-0
- Beat

Denmark 2-1
- Beat

Finland 2-0
- R16

eliminated Portugal 1-0
- Top goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku - 3

Italy
- Group A winners (3-0-0)
- Beat

Turkey 3-0
- Beat

Switzerland 3-0
- Beat

Wales 1-0
- R16

eliminated Austria 2-1 A.E.T.
- Top goalscorer(s): Ciro Immobile, Manuel Locatelli - 2

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[Adele Dazeem]

Lukaku was silenced in the Portugal game, but still managed to show why he's one of the best strikers. I give credit to Pepe and Dias. He's more familiar with the Italian defense, so I predict a better showing on the stat sheet.
2-1 Belgium prediction.

 

[Live in the Now]

Yeah I like Italy here. You have one team full of young players (especially factoring in subs) that try to break lines, play in combinations and create chances. Solely geared towards attack. If they have to they'll defend but they didn't look very comfortable doing it.

Then in Belgium's case you have an older team with two guys made of glass who might be hurt, their replacements are quite a bit worse, and they want to play on the counter with nobody running forward at all except Lukaku.

 

[Savi]

Yeah Italy will be clear favourites here. No injuries, an extra day of rest.

If KDB can play, I'll say we win 2-1.
If not and Martinez keeps making poor tactical choices, Italy takes it 1-0/2-0.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

Gotta go with Italy. Immobile, Insigne up front. Midfield is good and if Chiellini comes back him and Bonnuci would be hard to pententrate in the middle of the defense. Plus Donnarumma looks the next Buffon or Zoff.

 

[StevenF1919]

Bastoni should be starting and taking Lukakus legs out every chance he gets.

 

[Evilo]

 

[Havre]

I would say that is Verratti's level - slightly worse than Daniel James.

It will be interesting to see how Italy reacts to the Austria game. A wake-up call or an indication of the team not being as good as we "all" thought?

I think Mancini got a difficult decision to make in midfield. On individual quality, Verratti should be in it, but I'm not sure if Verratti and Jorginho will work. They might be able to adjust things in training these days - I don't know - but my guess is that the team is better without Verratti. To me that formation means they need someone willing to run into space and stretch the opposition more than the quality Verratti has on the ball. Will be interesting to see - because I guess Verratti will start the game.

As for Belgium I don't think there is that much more in them than what they showed against Portugal. That might be enough of course as I'm not sure if Italy is any stronger than Portugal. Hopefully KdB can play.

My guess is that Italy wins this due to fresher legs in the last 30, but then they can't get rattled like they did against Austria. If Belgium allow Italy to control much of the possession, and it leads to nowhere, like against Austria - then I think Belgium will punish them as confidence is lost and the fear of conceding creeps in.

 

[Evilo]

So Verratti is the guy that creates most chances per minute - by far- but Italy is better without him (and thus creating less chances is having a chance to be better).

Makes sense.

 

[Havre]

You are right.

 

[Havre]

We could have a HFBoard competition? Spot the 4 chances he created against Austria.

Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against Verratti as an individual player, but I still think structurally it doesn't make sense for them. Ridiculous I know.

 

[Incubajerks]

I would have preferred Portugal, we would certainly have had a better chance of reaching the semifinals. Any choice of Mancini in midfield is fine, it is a luxury that we can afford because we have important players in that position, so to say that x is better than y is a useless game.

 

[Havre]

I would have preferred Portugal, we would certainly have had a better chance of reaching the semifinals. Any choice of Mancini in midfield is fine, it is a luxury that we can afford because we have important players in that position, so to say that x is better than y is a useless game.

Why would you have preferred Portugal?

I think especially Insigne will be very difficult for Belgium to handle. Alderweireld is still a very good player on his day, but he is slow and I think Italy would be able to expose him down the left - especially considering Meunier isn't always the most solid defensively either.

Will also be interesting to see how Belgium deals with Italy's 3 man midfield. Without KdB (if that happens) Mertens or Hazard will most likely have to cover Jorginho. Not sure if they will be capable of handling that. If Tielemans and Witsel are forced to follow Italy's 2 x 8s then I could see Belgium cracking open in a way I don't think Portugal ever would have opened up.

Now it sounds like I think Italy will easily win. That isn't the case, but I do believe Italy has a better shot at beating Belgium (even with KdB) than they would have had against Portugal. Even if I think it is close to 50/50 either way. I would give this 60/40 to Italy or something.

 

[Savi]

That's what I said as well, I think Italy matches up very well against Belgium, way better than Portugal.
KDB will likely be a game time decision, I'm not very optimistic about Hazard because of the way he went off, holding his thigh. Mertens shouldn't be a starter anymore, he's been really bad for the NT for a while now.
I'd like to see us really commit to a more counter attacking style, which wouldn't leave our slow defence exposed as much. If no KDB, Hazard and Mertens, then put Carrasco up front with Lukaku, play Tielemans higher up the pitch and give Witsel some extra support in midfield. I think that's the way to beat Italy.

 

[Havre]

Agree.

No disrespect to E. Hazard who is absolutely world class at his best, but I wonder if a hard working Carrasco would be a better alternative for this game anyway. Instead of Belgium playing the game as the world no. 1 they might be better off playing the game as "Austria".

I guess they could play Carrasco as an CAM defensively on Jorginho - he could then drift out to one side when Belgium is in possession. Then if E. Hazard is fit play him up front with Lukaku. Or do the same with KdB - who could then interchange with Carrasco.

If E. Hazard can play some he could still be very effective if it is 0-0 and 20 minutes left of the game.

Still enough quality in that Belgian side to hurt Italy, but I believe it would be in "moments" rather than through dominating the game.

 

[Incubajerks]

Portugal was an absolutely better matchup, because between the two they are the one that suffers a lot more pressure and speed, they don't have a striker like Lukaku and their D, if possible, is even worse than Belgium's.

 

[Havre]

You mean you think they suffer more against teams with pressure and speed than Belgium do?

 

[Savi]

Our D is not bad, it's old. There's a difference.

 

[Incubajerks]

You mean you think they suffer more against teams with pressure and speed than Belgium do?

I preferred to play against Portugal because they are a team that suffers a lot from pressure and speed. In the offensive phase they do not scare me, unlike Belgium, which has the technical qualities and the center forward to hurt you.

 

[Havre]

In most cases there is a correlation there. They looked solid enough against Portugal though. Vertonghen isn't the complete trainwreck he was the last year at Spurs (I love Vertonghen - so that is not a general criticism - before that he was our best defender). Obviously I don't watch Vermaelen, but I never expected him to be as good as he was against Portugal. Alderweireld has been OK for Spurs the last 2 years or so. A shadow of the player he was before that, but not a complete liability like Vertonghen.

If this is some sort of last dance effort from the three then fantastic. At their best they were all very very good defenders. Not sure if any of them were so called world class, but there was a time when I would have considered the partnership of Vertonghen and Alderweireld almost as good as any other partnership - even if they individually were never as good as van Dijk etc.

Still waiting for that situation or match where their age will show a bit more.

As for the comparison with Portugal I don't know. Pepe looked solid to me against Belgium. Dias definitely the best of the 5 CDs those two countries play with. With Semedo out I would consider Portugal's D to be at least on part with Belgium. Probably slightly better.

 

[koyvoo]

I would have preferred Portugal, we would certainly have had a better chance of reaching the semifinals. Any choice of Mancini in midfield is fine, it is a luxury that we can afford because we have important players in that position, so to say that x is better than y is a useless game.

What you would prefer in Belguim, and exactly the way they played yesterday. Why would you want the team that caved them in instead?

 

[Incubajerks]

What you would prefer in Belguim, and exactly the way they played yesterday. Why would you want the team that caved them in instead?

I'm not sure I understand the question correctly ...

I liked the chance vs Portugal way more, Belgium got the players to hurt us, and btw every game is different now, you don't need to play well.

 

[Savi]

So, no serious injuries for KDB or Hazard, per Martinez

Says if we make the semi final they'll be 100% ready to go, but the Italy game will be 50/50 for both

In most cases there is a correlation there. They looked solid enough against Portugal though. Vertonghen isn't the complete trainwreck he was the last year at Spurs (I love Vertonghen - so that is not a general criticism - before that he was our best defender). Obviously I don't watch Vermaelen, but I never expected him to be as good as he was against Portugal. Alderweireld has been OK for Spurs the last 2 years or so. A shadow of the player he was before that, but not a complete liability like Vertonghen.

If this is some sort of last dance effort from the three then fantastic. At their best they were all very very good defenders. Not sure if any of them were so called world class, but there was a time when I would have considered the partnership of Vertonghen and Alderweireld almost as good as any other partnership - even if they individually were never as good as van Dijk etc.

Still waiting for that situation or match where their age will show a bit more.

As for the comparison with Portugal I don't know. Pepe looked solid to me against Belgium. Dias definitely the best of the 5 CDs those two countries play with. With Semedo out I would consider Portugal's D to be at least on part with Belgium. Probably slightly better.

The Qatar WC will probably be their last dance since it's next year already

Vermaelen ALWAYS plays well when called upon for the NT. He could be out for a year, come back, and play great as if nothing happened. I think if you'd call him up for the 2030 WC he'd come in and do the job just fine
I do think you're a bit harsh on Alderweireld. He's still really good. Only just turned 32 as well. Unless he really falls off a cliff he'll probably still be there in Germany 2024

 

[Havre]

Obviously I´m not omniscient in terms of evaluating football players, but I have probably watched every single minute of football Alderweireld has played since joining Spurs (maybe missed some pre-season game). Before van Dijk became the clear no. 1 in England Alderweireld might have had a say in the best CD in the PL. Certainly top 3. I wouldn´t say he is now a poor player, but definitely not really good for Spurs. Hopefully he can get going again with a new manager. Not sure. He seemed to first be left out by Pochettino and then not really being considered the main man defensively under Mourinho either.

His style suggests that he would age well - which I guess makes it more disappointing how he has played for Spurs the last 2 years.

 

[S E P H]

In most cases there is a correlation there. They looked solid enough against Portugal though

No they didn't, they were asking to defend for the entire match and their strength is direct football up the pitch. They'll have to deal with an in form Italia squad who have more targets to shoot for than Portugal who aimed all their balls either to Ronaldo or Felix. If Italy loses, it will be because of Mancini and his terrible formation than anything else.