Prospect Info: Prospect Rating #1 (2023 Version)

[Peat]

IMO Yager is a worse skater than Daniel Sprong and a similar skill set. Sprong has never hit 3 mil.

Pickering has the type of physical traits that could make him a unicorn.

Well there's two answers to that

The first is this is Schrodinger's Yager in effect. There are scouting profiles that absolutely agree with you. There are scouting profiles that think you're on crack. I don't have any huge personal input here as I'm lousy on judging skating and the parts of his game where people will disagree with you aren't on highlights videos - I'm thinking the profiles that talk about Yager as one of the draft's best two-way players.

The second is that was Sprong has achieved is not his pre-draft ceiling and to no small extent, on him. People talked about him as one of the most skillful players in the draft, a top 10 pick on talent alone. He has to an extent started to show that in Washington and Seattle, but neither team can bring themselves to trust him above 4th line minutes at 5v5 or, as a result, bother to hang onto him. A version of Sprong that can earn the trust to get a chance of replicating his stupidly high p/60 numbers with actual minutes absolutely has a chance of getting 3m and well above.

As a result, I have no problems with continuing to make high predictions of what he could be based off of a Sprong comparable. It's a good reminder of the volatility and possible low end, but I think it still leaves considerable ceiling. Draft Sprong potential on a guy who is thought of as good two ways for his age and wants to get better there is exciting.

And Pickering's physical traits are currently attached to a hope and a prayer of him putting together the rest to become a fill blown elite unicorn. I do like what he can become more as a result of those unicorn traits, I just don't think it's as likely as Yager that he hits the jackpot.

One final point on the Yager - Sprong comparable - draft year Sprong was considerably more built. Twenty-four to fourteen lbs heavier depending on which profile you believe, at either the same height or two inches taller, depending on which profile you believe. I think Yager has more runway to improve as an athlete, which should help with his skating.

 

[Andy99]

I think Yager comparable is more likely Konecny than Sprong…also I’m already questionable Pickering’s hockey IQ from what I’m hearing…

 

[Peat]

I think Yager comparable is more likely Konecny than Sprong…also I’m already questionable Pickering’s hockey IQ from what I’m hearing…

Schrodinger's Yager again. Konecny is like who he wants to be, Sprong is who he's had his most success like - or if you want the more flattering comparable, MacKinnon lite.

It would be nice if he could combine the two, but right now I think the highlights show a guy whose strongest attacking suite by far is using his shot and attacking on the rush. The in-traffic game and playmaking game don't pop in nearly the same way.

 

[steelcityassault]

I think Yager comparable is more likely Konecny than Sprong…also I’m already questionable Pickering’s hockey IQ from what I’m hearing…

His hockey IQ amongst other things was bad at prospect camp from what I saw, but take from that what you will

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Still Pickering for me. He's the piece I'd be most upset at losing, so, that's how I'm doing my evaluation.

 

[SomeDude]

Most fan bases automatically tout their 1st round picks as the the next superstar of the league. We find any way possible to tear ours down. Not sure what that means but you all need therapy.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Pickering will be one of the most valuable d-men in the league if he can reach his ceiling. He also could be an AHLer. Feels like we are a long way off from knowing.

Yager doesn’t really have a super unique skillset but I feel like he’s a much safer bet to have an NHL role, even if it’s as a speedy 25-30 point bottom 6er, and will make it sooner imo. Going Yager for that reason but I feel like it’s a toss up based on what you prefer.

 

[Peat]

Pickering will be one of the most valuable d-men in the league if he can reach his ceiling. He also could be an AHLer. Feels like we are a long way off from knowing.

Yager doesn’t really have a super unique skillset but I feel like he’s a much safer bet to have an NHL role, even if it’s as a speedy 25-30 point bottom 6er, and will make it sooner imo. Going Yager for that reason but I feel like it’s a toss up based on what you prefer.

What level of offence are you projecting for Pickering there?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

What level of offence are you projecting for Pickering there?

35-40 points but more thinking of him as crushing minutes + driving play. Can be a one man transition, break up entries and cycles, retrieve a ton of pucks, etc. I could see him not able to shake the awkwardness and being a Pettersson, which is fine but maybe not the guy you wait on for 6-7 years with a 35 year old Crosby. But if it all goes right, a core piece.

Or maybe a shitty 7D/AHL version of Pettersson too.

 

[Peat]

35-40 points but more thinking of him as crushing minutes + driving play. Can be a one man transition, break up entries and cycles, retrieve a ton of pucks, etc. I could see him not able to shake the awkwardness and being a Pettersson, which is fine but maybe not the guy you wait on for 6-7 years with a 35 year old Crosby. But if it all goes right, a core piece.

Or maybe a shitty 7D/AHL version of Pettersson too.

So something along the lines of Slavin?

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Last year's #1 poll had 72 votes and we're at over 90% of that. I'll close this poll early tomorrow morning.

 

[Zero Pucks]

Most fan bases automatically tout their 1st round picks as the the next superstar of the league. We find any way possible to tear ours down. Not sure what that means but you all need therapy.

Nearly two decades of first round busts will do that to a lot of people.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

So something along the lines of Slavin?

Something like that. I don’t think he’s that level of defensive ace though and I more envision his peak as an elite 2D but not necessarily who you want as the 1 if you’re trying to win the cup. Whereas Slavin is an elite 1D.

Think his ultimate ceiling is more in the Hanifin/ peak Ryan Ellis tier of player if you will. Not comparing styles there.

Feel like I’m kind of getting arbitrary here though. Original point is moreso that if he develops to his fullest ability he could be a 6’5 220 lbs plus skater that covers a ton of ice with no issues, strong player in transition with solid defensive ability, all while bringing some skill/offense. Just saying that type of player is more valuable than a 20-25 goal middle 6 winger (Yager).

But I think Yager is much more likely to hit that, and his floor is higher, and he’s closer to being ready IMO- so I voted for him.

 

[Peat]

Something like that. I don’t think he’s that level of defensive ace though and I more envision his peak as an elite 2D but not necessarily who you want as the 1 if you’re trying to win the cup. Whereas Slavin is an elite 1D.

Think his ultimate ceiling is more in the Hanifin/ peak Ryan Ellis tier of player if you will. Not comparing styles there.

Feel like I’m kind of getting arbitrary here though. Original point is moreso that if he develops to his fullest ability he could be a 6’5 220 lbs plus skater that covers a ton of ice with no issues, strong player in transition with solid defensive ability, all while bringing some skill/offense. Just saying that type of player is more valuable than a 20-25 goal middle 6 winger (Yager).

But I think Yager is much more likely to hit that, and his floor is higher, and he’s closer to being ready IMO- so I voted for him.

I get what you're saying. I think Travis Sanheim was the comp I picked for that sort of player.

I think where I'd demur is

a) I don't you're comparing apples to apples there. If we're talking ultimate ceiling, as in a "I can see all the tools there even if I think he's definitely not on that trajectory and would need to take a major jump somewhere", then I think Yager's ultimate ceiling is a very clear first line forward (either a Connor type threat to regularly score 40 and inch near 50, or more reliable two-way guy). Which I think tips me back to Yager. Hell, I flirt with the idea that his ultimate ceiling lies beyond that.

b) That sort of Hanifin/Ellis/McDonagh/Sergachev/Sanheim/Petry peak (delete whichever players people think don't belong) interests me, but not as much as the possibility he uses his weird athleticism to become Slavin or Ekholm like. And I don't see either as 1D, for me there's a points scoring requirement there, but that sort of offence capable shutdown 1st pairing player is a guy I'd give a whole ton to possess... but the elite 2D who's balanced both ways, while valuable, is a tier below. You can find them around. They're great to have, but they don't change the feeling of a team.

The closer to ready point is a big one too, practically speaking. I think the list of big skating dmen shows quite a few guys who moved early because their development was going too slow and the team bailed too soon. Even if I think Pickering's and Yager's ceilings are side by side, the odds of being the team to benefit from Yager's are a lot higher.

 

[SEALBound]

Yager then Pickering.

It's one of those - it's close but I think at the moment, it's clear #1 and #2.

Prospect #2 poll will be merely a formality.

At #3 is where it will get interesting between Blomqvist and Poulin.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I get what you're saying. I think Travis Sanheim was the comp I picked for that sort of player.

I think where I'd demur is

a) I don't you're comparing apples to apples there. If we're talking ultimate ceiling, as in a "I can see all the tools there even if I think he's definitely not on that trajectory and would need to take a major jump somewhere", then I think Yager's ultimate ceiling is a very clear first line forward (either a Connor type threat to regularly score 40 and inch near 50, or more reliable two-way guy). Which I think tips me back to Yager. Hell, I flirt with the idea that his ultimate ceiling lies beyond that.

b) That sort of Hanifin/Ellis/McDonagh/Sergachev/Sanheim/Petry peak (delete whichever players people think don't belong) interests me, but not as much as the possibility he uses his weird athleticism to become Slavin or Ekholm like. And I don't see either as 1D, for me there's a points scoring requirement there, but that sort of offence capable shutdown 1st pairing player is a guy I'd give a whole ton to possess... but the elite 2D who's balanced both ways, while valuable, is a tier below. You can find them around. They're great to have, but they don't change the feeling of a team.

The closer to ready point is a big one too, practically speaking. I think the list of big skating dmen shows quite a few guys who moved early because their development was going too slow and the team bailed too soon. Even if I think Pickering's and Yager's ceilings are side by side, the odds of being the team to benefit from Yager's are a lot higher.

Don’t agree on Yager’s ceiling tbh. Like I guess in theory it’s possible but it feels wishful to me. But right now I don’t think he’s got that capability given his tools and performances. I think he’s tracking to be more of a middle 6 20-20 guy or a Sutter type bottom 6 C right now, with hope he can be a 30 goal scorer a few times or a 2C.

If he can have a year where he looks super explosive and aggressive and more effective scoring wise at ES then I’d agree with your assessment though. Don’t think it’s impossible but I kinda don’t expect it. But unlike other prospects and due to his prior draft pedigree- if he goes nuclear this year I would readily readjust what I think his upside could be.

 

[Peat]

Don’t agree on Yager’s ceiling tbh. Like I guess in theory it’s possible but it feels wishful to me. But right now I don’t think he’s got that capability given his tools and performances. I think he’s tracking to be more of a middle 6 20-20 guy or a Sutter type bottom 6 C right now, with hope he can be a 30 goal scorer a few times or a 2C.

If he can have a year where he looks super explosive and aggressive and more effective scoring wise at ES then I’d agree with your assessment though. Don’t think it’s impossible but I kinda don’t expect it. But unlike other prospects and due to his prior draft pedigree- if he goes nuclear this year I would readily readjust what I think his upside could be.

To me that's only as wishful as the possibility that Pickering is on an elite two-way 2D track. I think there's roughly the same number of leaps and bounds needed.

I also feel somewhat discombobulated as to what the argument is when we're talking what Yager is tracking vs Pickering's ultimate ceiling. Those seem to be two different things.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

To me that's only as wishful as the possibility that Pickering is on an elite two-way 2D track. I think there's roughly the same number of leaps and bounds needed.

I also feel somewhat discombobulated as to what the argument is when we're talking what Yager is tracking vs Pickering's ultimate ceiling. Those seem to be two different things.

IMO difference is Pickering has the physical tools and skill- Yager doesn’t. I see Yager as a smallish jack of all trades without a ton of skill. But a that’s a matter of opinion.

On your second point- I’m just saying why I’d have Yager #1 and Pickering #2 despite thinking Pickering has a higher ceiling. Yager seems like a safer projection to be a contributor despite (for me) not possessing a ton of upside. Pickering could be a big time player if it all goes right but there’s a ton of moving parts and I’m not betting on them being more than Yager personally.

To put it this way
I’d bet on Yager being a 20 goal middle 6er today and I’d bet on Pickering being a bottom pair D today. I think Pickering has more upside in the sense he could be a unicorn type player.. rather than Yager who I think even if he hits his full potential is a 30 goal 2nd line winger which is great but isn’t the hardest thing to find. However because there’s so much runway to get Pickering there, I’m voting Yager #1. I hope that explains it better.

 

[Peat]

IMO difference is Pickering has the physical tools and skill- Yager doesn’t. I see Yager as a smallish jack of all trades without a ton of skill. But a that’s a matter of opinion.

On your second point- I’m just saying why I’d have Yager #1 and Pickering #2 despite thinking Pickering has a higher ceiling. Yager seems like a safer projection to be a contributor despite (for me) not possessing a ton of upside. Pickering could be a big time player if it all goes right but there’s a ton of moving parts and I’m not betting on them being more than Yager personally.

To put it this way
I’d bet on Yager being a 20 goal middle 6er today and I’d bet on Pickering being a bottom pair D today. I think Pickering has more upside in the sense he could be a unicorn type player.. rather than Yager who I think even if he hits his full potential is a 30 goal 2nd line winger which is great but isn’t the hardest thing to find. However because there’s so much runway to get Pickering there, I’m voting Yager #1. I hope that explains it better.

Okay, I get it now.

And I guess part of why I wasn't sure what you were getting at is that if I saw it that way, I'd have Pickering first.

Me, I'm lower on Pickering's ceiling and higher on Yager's.

In a lot of ways I see them as very similar. Great character, great dedication, great shots, lots of physical runway (more obvious with Pickering but Yager is very much on the light side and an extra 20 lbs of muscle could help him a lot), lot of inconsistency in terms of play, intriguing full package of traits but don't look likely to get there (it's not often I see a prospect talked about as a top five shot and two-way player in the same draft)...

But the inconsistency in Pickering's use of his skill and the puck has me lower. I don't look at his highlights and see that skill all the time, and I've read too many reports of him whiffing on easy plays.

And the doors opened by Yager's shot if it translates has me higher. If it translates, sooner or later coaches will find ways to get him in the top six, on power plays... I'm not big on shooting as a defining trait, but I know the NHL see it different. Guys who can snipe and don't have holes get a lot of opportunity, even if they're very average in traffic and as playmakers.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

What level of offence are you projecting for Pickering there?

Dumo offense. Matheson defensive awareness.

 

[Peat]

Dumo offense. Matheson defensive awareness.

Well he should be better than Derrick Pouliot, so that's a little low!