Post-Game Talk: Preds and caps @7:00 can we win 2 in a row to calm the board?

[txpd]

THIS

And we are going to see this a lot in the playoffs. Even if a team doesn't employ this strategy, they will start if they drop a game or two to the Caps. Hoping the Caps find a way to tip the scales in these games. Goal tending can be the difference, but as good as Holtby is, we will be facing equally good goal-tending in the playoffs.

In addition, this team has not shown much proficiency at scoring the dirty goals, which get highlighted in the playoffs...

Goaltending should be the difference for the Caps. They have the best goalie in the league. They shouldn't get out goaltended come the playoffs like they were last night.
Last night was a good example of how the Caps lost to Montreal. The Habs played 6 man goalie and waited for the Caps to make a mistake and then scored a stoppable shot to get a lead.

The Caps could have scored a 2nd goal and need to work on that. In playoff games they need that playoff goal. But in games like last night they cant have goaltending like that and win.

 

[RandyHolt]

I'm sorry I know the Preds "won" that Bettman special but they should be embarrassed at the type of hockey they played tonight.
....
I want both my money and my time back.

I feel your pain, especially bringing the kid along. Turtling trapping teams should lose cap space.

The NHL anoints Tiger Williams as Director of Entertainment Safety and Enforcement.

 

[Roughing]

I'm sorry I know the Preds "won" that Bettman special but they should be embarrassed at the type of hockey they played tonight.

Zero forecheck, zero pressure, four guys in the NZ, dump the puck in and passively try to get it, it was vintage NJ Devil hockey and it sucked to be at that game. That may have been the single most boring game I have ever attended. My eleven year old son, who just started playing hockey, who should have been super into it, actually fell asleep in the second period.

I want both my money and my time back.

Holy hell, this. What a **** show. Bored out of my mind. Embarrassing.

 

[Roughing]

I don't blame the tender for losing games where we score one goal, but I was right behind Braden on the first Preds tally and it was just a effort. Soft shot and he...just...didn't...catch...it. The OT goal was one where all 3 caps skated away from the shooter, which doesn't seem all that defensively sound.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I don't blame the tender for losing games where we score one goal, but I was right behind Braden on the first Preds tally and it was just a effort. Soft shot and he...just...didn't...catch...it. The OT goal was one where all 3 caps skated away from the shooter, which doesn't seem all that defensively sound.

Actually, the OT goal is all on Kuzy and Holtby. Kuzy was going for a line change and changed his mind right before reaching the bench, the 2-on-1 developed because of him. Carlson played the 2-on-1 well, it was Arvidsson on his off-wing with Subban. Ovechkin had the trailer (Johansen), so it came down to Arvidsson vs Holtby. Holtby lost on a rather soft shot glove side. Something was off with his glove all night, the Neal goal to tie the game was a softie.

This is the kind of game we should've won 2-0 or 3-0.

 

[txpd]

I don't blame the tender for losing games where we score one goal, but I was right behind Braden on the first Preds tally and it was just a effort. Soft shot and he...just...didn't...catch...it. The OT goal was one where all 3 caps skated away from the shooter, which doesn't seem all that defensively sound.

Holtby said after the game that he thinks he should have had the OT goal. He clearly whiffed on Neal's goal and that was the goal that got the game to OT in the first place.

Come playoffs the Caps should not be outgoaltended. If the league thinks that playing 4 guys a cross on the blue line and one guy in the middle to force a direction choice, is the best way to hang with the Caps, there are going to be a lot of 1-0/2-1 hockey games. The Caps gave the Preds next to nothing in scoring chances last night. I don't think they even got a shot on the power play. The Caps have the better goalie and should win those games.

Yup, the Caps should have gotten a 2nd goal last night, but in the playoffs good teams with good goalies will keep the score down and we are back to Holtby having to be better than the other guy.

Was Holtby better than Murray last year? I don't know. Is Holtby a better goalie than Murray? Its not even a contest. That cant happen this year

 

[Langway]

It helps to have an offense that's built for the playoffs. The early returns suggest the same ol', same ol' when games get tight. It's not just slowing them down but keeping them to the outside. They're all too content to stay on the outside and try to snipe or look for the "perfect" play. They're not a team that strenuously battles to gain interior positioning on the attack, be it with the puck or without it. Without that strength and commitment in their game it's going to be same coin flip type games.

For a supposed disciplinarian, Trotz allows an awful lot of fundamental offensive tenets to become optional. It's on the leaders of the team to a greater extent but they never display killer instinct down the stretch and, surprise surprise, it doesn't just come out of nowhere when they absolutely need it either. It's not something to summon but something to build and they basically refuse to build those habits down the stretch each and every season.

 

[Roughing]

Actually, the OT goal is all on Kuzy and Holtby. Kuzy was going for a line change and changed his mind right before reaching the bench, the 2-on-1 developed because of him. Carlson played the 2-on-1 well, it was Arvidsson on his off-wing with Subban. Ovechkin had the trailer (Johansen), so it came down to Arvidsson vs Holtby. Holtby lost on a rather soft shot glove side. Something was off with his glove all night, the Neal goal to tie the game was a softie.

This is the kind of game we should've won 2-0 or 3-0.

Right. Kuzy was who I meant (skating away and coming back far too late). Alex didn't do anything either and that left Carlson in no man's land so the shooter was all alone. That shot could have been stopped too but what a mess that whole sequence was.

 

[discobob]

Goaltending should be the difference for the Caps. They have the best goalie in the league. They shouldn't get out goaltended come the playoffs like they were last night.

I'd put Holtby in the highest tier of goalies, but he is capable of being outplayed. The problem is that this style of hockey accentuates chance (i.e. luck). With the difference between a good goal tending night and a mediocre one so slim, it still produces a situation where the better team may only have a ~%60 chance of winning a series. On top of that, you have to win four in a row.

In the end, I'm just frustrated with a strategy that downplays skill and talent, in favor of one that makes it mostly about lucky bounces.

 

[Roughing]

It helps to have an offense that's built for the playoffs. The early returns suggest the same ol', same ol' when games get tight. It's not just slowing them down but keeping them to the outside. They're all too content to stay on the outside and try to snipe or look for the "perfect" play. They're not a team that strenuously battles to gain interior positioning on the attack, be it with the puck or without it. Without that strength and commitment in their game it's going to be same coin flip type games.

For a supposed disciplinarian, Trotz allows an awful lot of fundamental offensive tenets to become optional. It's on the leaders of the team to a greater extent but they never display killer instinct down the stretch and, surprise surprise, it doesn't just come out of nowhere when they absolutely need it either. It's not something to summon but something to build and they basically refuse to build those habits down the stretch each and every season.

Ovechkin looks like dog ****. I have never been in the "trade Alex" club but if this teams fails in the playoffs again I'd consider moving him and fresh starting things. It's going to be an offseason of big changes anyway.

 

[Roughing]

Holtby said after the game that he thinks he should have had the OT goal. He clearly whiffed on Neal's goal and that was the goal that got the game to OT in the first place.

Come playoffs the Caps should not be outgoaltended. If the league thinks that playing 4 guys a cross on the blue line and one guy in the middle to force a direction choice, is the best way to hang with the Caps, there are going to be a lot of 1-0/2-1 hockey games. The Caps gave the Preds next to nothing in scoring chances last night. I don't think they even got a shot on the power play. The Caps have the better goalie and should win those games.

Yup, the Caps should have gotten a 2nd goal last night, but in the playoffs good teams with good goalies will keep the score down and we are back to Holtby having to be better than the other guy.

Was Holtby better than Murray last year? I don't know. Is Holtby a better goalie than Murray? Its not even a contest. That cant happen this year

Agreed. Holtby wasn't good. We need to win that 1-0. I'm not letting the O off the hook either though. Gotta score more than 1.

 

[RandyHolt]

If BConn didn't score his goal (it was not a wide open net), we would be saying that Vrana shouldn't have passed the puck. Alone standing in front... sure the puck was rolling but it was still for BCon

I tend to favor the extra pass, in a 2 on 1 for example. Otherwise you subscribe to the school of thinking - take 100 shots - one has to go in. No, it does not.

Oshie had an open net but he clearly thought the opening would close. These things happen, like the thousands of quality shots we have seen completely miss the net, largely excused without a 2nd thought.

If you excuse the missed shots we need to excuse the missed/dumb pass.

 

[g00n]

There is no point in spending to the cap to build a talented team if you can be taken down by coin-flip tactics. The Caps have to be better than that. That is on Trotz to figure out without resorting to playing down to coin-flip level.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

There is no point in spending to the cap to build a talented team if you can be taken down by coin-flip tactics. The Caps have to be better than that. That is on Trotz to figure out without resorting to playing down to coin-flip level.[/QUOTE

This is what I meant. It's dumb to go "All in" in a coin flip league. B- teams beat A+ teams all the time. That's hockey.
I would have rather been a A team this year and a B team next rather the A+ and C team next year

 

[txpd]

There is no point in spending to the cap to build a talented team if you can be taken down by coin-flip tactics. The Caps have to be better than that. That is on Trotz to figure out without resorting to playing down to coin-flip level.

This 1-4 trap has been around a while now and it remains because its successful because the way to beat it is in fact to out wait it.

Yes, the Caps should have scored more but that was execution and less about some new tactic to invalidate the trap.

The Caps over passed. They didn't shoot enough. They didn't finish. But each time the Caps face this kind of defense the tv analyists from May to NBC to NHLN say that the Caps approach is the correct one.

Its just a fact that one team deciding to go to a full on defense game plan holds down scoring. It holds down scoring in the other sports that it applies to.

The idea that offense comes from the defense doesn't apply at all facing that defense. In the reverse it ONLY comes from the defense.

 

[Langway]

If you excuse the missed shots we need to excuse the missed/dumb pass.

Eh, maybe. Maybe if the top line more routinely were capable of generating quality looks. They've been incredibly productive this year but they also don't generate tons of quality chances most games so they can't waste them. It's a credit that they do convert so often but they're going to need more consistency to more regularly be in position to make those decisions in the first place.

Combine that dynamic with Kuznetsov having lanes to put pucks at the net and instead holding, holding, holding, skating, skating, skating behind the net and back around again while nothing develops and it's a top six that doesn't play with enough hunger. You can't fake urgency but, again, look at the standings. If they don't care about opening against PIT/CBJ they're maybe brave still but dumb. It's amazing how consistently the coaching staff points to the urgency of the opposition down the stretch every year while seeming to have zero internal priorities driving their own focus.

If it's still just about avoiding The Big Mistake for 60+ minutes then of course they're going to hit cruise control and be lackluster. It's not just how teams are playing them but their tendency toward patience that lulls them to sleep. You don't want to force it but you also don't want to lose your edge. Too many on this team lose that edge--whatever edge some may have--too easily and that more than anything is reason enough to be skeptical of their peak ability. We can talk about depth being the difference but it's more about their collective focus in being able to more routinely gain small but deadly advantages on the opposition. Without that momentum being generated they're far easier to handle and we've seen lately that they're struggling to generate it. That's on the leaders as well but at some point the coaching staff needs to get on players also. You can't have the expectations they have and just let things drift.

 

[twabby]

Here's an idea if Trotz is dead set on keeping 8-19-77 together: don't deploy 27-74 with the first line. When all 5 are on the ice together they have a 45.4% shot-attempt percentage, or worse than any single team in the NHL this season:

https://puckalytics.com/#/SuperWOWY...&startday=1&endyear=2017&endmonth=3&endday=16

The same first line deployed with 9-2 has a 58.5% shot-attempt %, or better than any single team in the NHL:

https://puckalytics.com/#/SuperWOWY...pid1=527&pid2=532&pid3=987&pid4=1565&pid5=144

These aren't huge samples but it makes sense to consider 27-74 dragging down the first line considering their success with the other pairings (they have good numbers with 44-88 and, in very limited minutes, 44-22).

What's more interesting is that the 5-player combination of 90-92-14/27-74 actually has decent shot-attempt and goal stats (5 GF to 1 GA and 52.5% CF).

Intuitively to me at least, it makes sense. 8-19-77 really doesn't have the ability to enter the zone with any sort of speed so maybe it would make sense to have the defense doing the heavy lifting. 27-74 can't really do this but the other pairings can. Meanwhile, 90-92-14 has two options (Kuznetsov and to a lesser extent Johansson) who can gain the offensive zone with control pretty regularly, so the inability of 27-74 to really transition from defense to offense aren't as magnified.

So maybe the simple change is to deploy 9-2 with the first line as much as possible and 27-74 with the second line as much as possible. It's at least worth a shot for a few games. It's tough to say with a straight face that 9-2 is weaker defensively than 27-74 so using the "who will match up against the other team's first line?" really doesn't hold any water IMO.

 

[txpd]

There is no point in spending to the cap to build a talented team if you can be taken down by coin-flip tactics. The Caps have to be better than that. That is on Trotz to figure out without resorting to playing down to coin-flip level.[/QUOTE

This is what I meant. It's dumb to go "All in" in a coin flip league. B- teams beat A+ teams all the time. That's hockey.
I would have rather been a A team this year and a B team next rather the A+ and C team next year

except that the team going trap against a team spending to the cap with a talented team is doing it trying to survive and come playoffs they will eventually lose to a team that either finishes enough to force them out of that game or plays defense well enough to keep them from scoring at all. The Habs did beat the Caps and the Penguins doing that. They still lost in the 3rd round

 

[um]

There is no point in spending to the cap to build a talented team if you can be taken down by coin-flip tactics. The Caps have to be better than that. That is on Trotz to figure out without resorting to playing down to coin-flip level.[/QUOTE

This is what I meant. It's dumb to go "All in" in a coin flip league. B- teams beat A+ teams all the time. That's hockey.
I would have rather been a A team this year and a B team next rather the A+ and C team next year

losing Sanford makes us a C team next year?

 

[ovikovy817]

trap team:
That's why to score first will be HUGE in postseason. And our best (or one of the best) 1st period differential must be another key factor. If you can go up by 2 after 1st period will force the opponent to play normal hockey.

 

[g00n]

This 1-4 trap has been around a while now and it remains because its successful because the way to beat it is in fact to out wait it.

Yes, the Caps should have scored more but that was execution and less about some new tactic to invalidate the trap.

The Caps over passed. They didn't shoot enough. They didn't finish. But each time the Caps face this kind of defense the tv analyists from May to NBC to NHLN say that the Caps approach is the correct one.

Its just a fact that one team deciding to go to a full on defense game plan holds down scoring. It holds down scoring in the other sports that it applies to.

The idea that offense comes from the defense doesn't apply at all facing that defense. In the reverse it ONLY comes from the defense.

Traps can be beaten by better teams if they play like the Caps did during their hot streak. That means support, triangle spacing, quick decisions, moving your feet, and accurate passing. By attacking individual players with numbers you overwhelm small parts of the trap and you don't have to dump.

If you want to beat the 1-2-2 then don't let the first forechecker get you on the boards to begin with. Or if you get angled that way then two of your support players have to find space and create passing lanes for you to get off the boards.

 

[Capsman]

Traps can be beaten by better teams if they play like the Caps did during their hot streak. That means support, triangle spacing, quick decisions, moving your feet, and accurate passing. By attacking individual players with numbers you overwhelm small parts of the trap and you don't have to dump.

If you want to beat the 1-2-2 then don't let the first forechecker get you on the boards to begin with. Or if you get angled that way then two of your support players have to find space and create passing lanes for you to get off the boards.

I'm in agreement with you here. When you get the opposition leaning in the direction of the puck carrier there is an available gap that can be utilized with quick, accurate passes the other way. Timing is huge and a good puck carrying defensemen can help take that pass and break into the zone. Timing is a problem with this team, thus we see the ridiculous number of offsides. That's where I get my belief that we don't practice enough with pace/game simulation. Also why I think sitting Schmidt may be a mistake.

 

[RandyHolt]

Good work Twabby. Just don't hold your breath

I would think Shappy is a good candidate to break the spirit of the trap. I would actually try to feature him, practice a few specific plays for him.

You'd think the top 6 would be able to practice vs the bottom 6 fairly productively, asking the B6 to trap.

 

[g00n]

I'm in agreement with you here. When you get the opposition leaning in the direction of the puck carrier there is an available gap that can be utilized with quick, accurate passes the other way. Timing is huge and a good puck carrying defensemen can help take that pass and break into the zone. Timing is a problem with this team, thus we see the ridiculous number of offsides. That's where I get my belief that we don't practice enough with pace/game simulation. Also why I think sitting Schmidt may be a mistake.

The thing is, when the Caps were playing well EVERYONE was executing at a high level. Orpik and Alzner were making decisive plays to exit the zone, including some really deft passing. They are all capable of playing the way the need to. The trick is unlocking that ability.

Some of that is on Trotz, some is on the players.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think Trotz needs to practice beating the trap, every single practice going forward. It can be done, but requires set plays and quick accurate short passes to support at speed.