Laine is a building block , if we have to overpay to get him to sign more of a term , I make that sacrifice if I’m Jarmo . It’s about making that statement , and changing narrative players want to be in Columbus . Long term , I think we pick one the 2 between Jones or Werenski , and trade the other for an elite offensive talent . And I do this sooner than later , you have a limited time to make an impression on Laine . Kukan looks every part of a top 6 defenseman , and is improving . We need to get Peeke on the ice , I think we will see he belongs as well .
Ok but what is a good strategic overpay then?
For the Jets, paying him $6.7m was out of line with their practice with RFAs, but they did it to get him signed, not because he was better than Ehlers or Connor (much the opposite). I'd say right now $8m per is a strategic overpay for what Laine has done to date. He certainly hasn't been that good in the last two seasons. It looks to me like fans are buying the hype and thinking $9m or $10m is a strategic overpay, but in my book that is just a gross overpay, it's closer to double the value Laine brought to the Jets.
A long term deal at this point is unlikely given Laine's view on his capabilities, and given the tightened league finances in the next couple seasons. Laine isn't going to be on his way out of Columbus just because he doesn't sign long term. He's just always going to be that "bet on myself" type, and whoever has him is going to be paying a lot of money for what he brings, not getting any kind of deal. That's why there weren't as many suitors for Laine as expected, no GM thought they were getting a steal with him.
I'd expect something like $8m x 3 years on his next deal. And the Jackets will have a good chance of being able to extend him again after that, if they're willing to pay through the nose.
I’m in agreement on the Jones - Werenski idea and I’ve done a 180 in that I’d be targeting Werenski. Seth’s play has been disappointing this year and for much of last year. People talk about signing Seth to a long term deal at $8M plus - heck of seen some go up to $10M. IMHO, his play doesn’t match those numbers. That said, Seth is held in very high regard and is the most valuable asset in a trade, a guy who could fetch a significant offensive player in return. In a package with a prospect like Bemstrom you might get a top line winger and good DMan back.
Seth has generally been viewed as untouchable, but should he be? If you think I don’t like Jones, you’re wrong. It’s just that I think he offers a way for us to improve the team and manage contracts to performance. I suspect many here still feel Seth is a top 5/top 10 defenseman and will declare my take as heresy. That’s ok. After all I’m not the GM who makes those decisions.
It's not heretical, I don't think Jones should be untouchable, and I don't think he is. We very well might see a blockbuster in the summer.
He certainly isn't playing like a top 5/10 D-man right now and you wouldn't think he is a $9m player if you only saw the last couple weeks. I've been much more inclined to keep Werenski. With his deception he has the ability to break a defense from the backend and that is very valuable to an offensively starved team like the Jackets. Jones can't do that, and there are times where I wonder if he is becoming redundant in our defensive system. Jones would be more valuable racing up and down the ice like the Jackets used to back in the "safe is death" era.