Prospect Info: Play Bad for Ekblad? (the 2014 draft thread)

[Big Daddy Cane]

Post-lockout, teams with Top 10 picks have knowingly traded out of the 1st round in that manner only 3 times: Columbus (Carter), Carolina (J. Staal) and New Jersey (Schneider). Top 10 picks hold great value in the salary cap world. The only way #7 gets traded straight across, imo, is with other pieces for a top tier asset. In Calgary’s case, that would be Monahan or Giordano. I think GMRF just holds on to the pick as the high-end potential of say a Nick Ritchie (physical, 25-30 goal PWF that complements Skinner and Lindholm really well stylistically) is too great to move for 2nd tier assets.

EDIT: Knowingly, in the sense that teams moved what they knew were Top 10 picks rather than just an undefined 1st round pick. So, Florida did trade a Top 10 pick for Vokoun and Toronto gave up 2 for Kessel. However, at the time of the trade in both cases, the 1sts weren’t Top 10 picks. Vokoun and Kessel were both top tier assets at the time of each trade, so that doesn’t invalidate my point. I just thought that the distinction needed to be made.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Let's put a name on the No. 7 ... and say we draft Nick Ritchie. One of the reasons that we tend to overvalue draft picks is because right now, the No. 7 pick represents several attractive options. But after the draft, it will be one guy.

So now it's Ward/Ritchie for Backlund/Baertschi. In my opinion, Ward has negative value. If we were able to drop him without having to pay him, I think we would. We have a starting goalie under contract and we don't need to pay Cam $4.75 million to be a decent backup. So seriously, you guys wouldn't trade Ritchie for Backlund/Baertschi *and* save money? I think we're overthinking this. This is a no-brainer for Carolina, IMO.

 

[nobuddy]

Let's put a name on the No. 7 ... and say we draft Nick Ritchie. One of the reasons that we tend to overvalue draft picks is because right now, the No. 7 pick represents several attractive options. But after the draft, it will be one guy.

So now it's Ward/Ritchie for Backlund/Baertschi. In my opinion, Ward has negative value. If we were able to drop him without having to pay him, I think we would. We have a starting goalie under contract and we don't need to pay Cam $4.75 million to be a decent backup. So seriously, you guys wouldn't trade Ritchie for Backlund/Baertschi *and* save money? I think we're overthinking this. This is a no-brainer for Carolina, IMO.

Yup.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It depends on which way the team wants to go.

If we want to scrap everything and start a serious rebuild, then we'll want to keep that pick and likely keep Ward, simply to stay above the cap floor. This is assuming we'll move the Staal brothers for picks/prospects since I doubt they want to be a part of any full blown rebuild.

If we still believe the team can be competitive, then the pick doesn't matter as much and the cap space for Ward could be better put elsewhere. Though this year's playoffs have shown the necessity of having a decent backup (if we didn't know it already)

 

[Chan790]

So now it's Ward/Ritchie for Backlund/Baertschi. In my opinion, Ward has negative value. If we were able to drop him without having to pay him, I think we would. We have a starting goalie under contract and we don't need to pay Cam $4.75 million to be a decent backup. So seriously, you guys wouldn't trade Ritchie for Backlund/Baertschi *and* save money?

That's exactly what I'm saying. I wouldn't trade a piece we need for our future and overpaid backup goalie for a 3C and a coin-flip-bust prospect.

I don't care about having to retain/pay Ward...it's not my money.

 

[What the Faulk]

It depends on which way the team wants to go.

If we want to scrap everything and start a serious rebuild, then we'll want to keep that pick and likely keep Ward, simply to stay above the cap floor. This is assuming we'll move the Staal brothers for picks/prospects since I doubt they want to be a part of any full blown rebuild.

If we still believe the team can be competitive, then the pick doesn't matter as much and the cap space for Ward could be better put elsewhere. Though this year's playoffs have shown the necessity of having a decent backup (if we didn't know it already)

Everything seems to point towards the latter.

That's exactly what I'm saying. I wouldn't trade a piece we need for our future and overpaid backup goalie for a 3C and a coin-flip-bust prospect.

I don't care about having to retain/pay Ward...it's not my money.

What makes you think 7 is going to be any better than a con-flip-3rd liner or bust prospect?

And no, it isn't you money, but that's not the point. It's somebody's money, and there's a finite amount of it.

Moving Ward here, ESPECIALLY for a useful piece like Backlund, adds so much financial flexibility that it alone could turn this franchise around more than anyone they'd ever take at 7. Seriously, look at my mock lineups a few posts back. That's depth.

 

[bleedgreen]

I really don't think backlund is very good. We were talking about him earlier in the year so I watched a bit of the flames to follow up, really isn't very good offensively and isn't that strong defensively either. He hustles, that's about it. I didn't see much worth making any kind of fuss about. If our pick this year isn't better than him I for one would be disappointed.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Everything seems to point towards the latter.



What makes you think 7 is going to be any better than a con-flip-3rd liner or bust prospect?

And no, it isn't you money, but that's not the point. It's somebody's money, and there's a finite amount of it.

Moving Ward here, ESPECIALLY for a useful piece like Backlund, adds so much financial flexibility that it alone could turn this franchise around more than anyone they'd ever take at 7. Seriously, look at my mock lineups a few posts back. That's depth.

They'd get run out of the building by any team with a modicum of size and aggression.

 

[What the Faulk]

^ and surely 18 year old Nick Ritchie will strike fear into the hearts of opponents?

Backlund and Jordan Staal had nearly identical seasons on nearly identical teams, are nearly the same age, are similar types of players (Jordan is way bigger), but Backlund is on a 1.5M contract that expires next year. If the Flames can get him some talent, I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit 20 goals and 50 points. In Calgary.

What could he do in Carolina? Pair him with Tlusty and Gerbe, who are very capable of 20 themselves. You could stack the Staals and make him the 2C. You could give him a Staal. He'd help take more pressure off Jordan defensively than Malhotra ever did and would give them three tough lines to play against.

Nick Ritchie could be everything above (from the wing). But it might take him 2-3 years, and he might not do it at all.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'd just rather find another way to move ward and keep the pick.

 

[TheOllieC]

Steve Fitzsimmons @playbyplayguy · 34m

Lots of NHL mock drafts & rankings out there. Let me say this: If @stormcity F @RFabbri9 is taken after 10th overall, teams are very foolish

Steve Fitzsimmons @playbyplayguy · 34m

My personal belief is if Fabbri was 6'1", he'd be the run-away 1st overall pick in the NHL Draft.

 

[nobuddy]

Wow.

 

[Joe McGrath]

That guy is the play by play announcer of his junior team. Not exactly an unbiased observer.

 

[nobuddy]

That guy is the play by play announcer of his junior team. Not exactly an unbiased observer.

Well that clears it up then.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Seems like a wide open the field after the first 4-5 players, doesn't it? I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of what are thought to be "off the board" picks within the top 10.

 

[nobuddy]

I'm holding out hope that Dal Colle or Draisaitl pulls a Fowler/Forsberg and is still there when we pick. That would be ideal.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Were there rumors that Edmonton was very high on Drasaitl? (or was that just hf boards fan speak). I bet you are right though. In the past 4 drafts there was someone that was in a lot of top 5 projections and dropped. This year, it seem even more wide open in terms of talent spread.

2010: Fowler and Gormley
2011: TSN and others I think had Couterier in the top 5
2012: Forsberg and Grigorenko
2013: Nichushkin

 

[Buenos Necas]

You can add Murphy to that list for 2011.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You can add Murphy to that list for 2011.

I was listing guys that were ranked in the top 5 that dropped out of it though so Murphy doesn't apply. IIRC, Murphy was ranked anywhere from 8-10 and was chosen at 12.

EDIT: I looked it up. McKenzie had him at 8; NCS had him at 9 for NAS, ISS had him at 8; The Hockey News had him at 7.

 

[Buenos Necas]

I was listing guys that were ranked in the top 5 that dropped out of it though so Murphy doesn't apply. IIRC, Murphy was ranked anywhere from 8-10 and was chosen at 12.

EDIT: I looked it up. McKenzie had him at 8; NCS had him at 9 for NAS, ISS had him at 8; The Hockey News had him at 7.

Ah, gotcha. For some reason, I had in my head that he was in the 3-5 range for NA skaters.

 

[DaveG]

2009: no fallers (Cowen had been ranked #3 at one point but concerns over his injury caused him to drop out by the final rankings)
2008: Filatov (5 to 6)
2007: Cherepanov (4 to 17, the original "Russian Factor" fall)
2006: no fallers
2005: Kopitar (5 to 11)
2004: Montoya (4 to 6) and Tukonen (5 to 11)

looking at it there's just as many busts (Tukonen, Montoya, Filatov, Cherepanov) as there are bargains (Kopitar, Fowler, Couturier, Nichushkin)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ah, gotcha. For some reason, I had in my head that he was in the 3-5 range for NA skaters.

I think Craig Button may have had him in the top 5 so it's reasonable that you had that in your head. IIRC, he was the exception and not the rule.

 

[tomdundo]

2009: no fallers (Cowen had been ranked #3 at one point but concerns over his injury caused him to drop out by the final rankings)
2008: Filatov (5 to 6)
2007: Cherepanov (4 to 17, the original "Russian Factor" fall)
2006: no fallers
2005: Kopitar (5 to 11)
2004: Montoya (4 to 6) and Tukonen (5 to 11)

looking at it there's just as many busts (Tukonen, Montoya, Filatov, Cherepanov) as there are bargains (Kopitar, Fowler, Couturier, Nichushkin)

I know that's not how you meant it, but that just sounds incredibly heartless. Daveg #satin confirm.

 

[DaveG]

Yeah definitely not with that intention on Cherepanov. Truth be told he looked pretty legit before that happened, unlike uberbust Esposito from that same draft. Just extremely unfortunate circumstances on that one, but when all is said and done it's still a pick that didn't work out. Same "what if" circumstances as Bryan Fogarty and numerous others over the years.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Were there rumors that Edmonton was very high on Drasaitl? (or was that just hf boards fan speak). I bet you are right though. In the past 4 drafts there was someone that was in a lot of top 5 projections and dropped. This year, it seem even more wide open in terms of talent spread.

2010: Fowler and Gormley
2011: TSN and others I think had Couterier in the top 5
2012: Forsberg and Grigorenko
2013: Nichushkin

If you believe the media up here, apparently that's still the case.