Post-Game Talk: | Pens vs Preds | win | Declawing the Preds for 2

[Pancakes]

No. It’s very very binary.

Our goalies are bad. Arguing otherwise is some weird need to find Jesus’ face on a piece of toasts. Good goalies make saves even when the defense breaks down. Our goalies don’t make those saves and the also don’t make the routinely mundane ones.

Interestingly enough, our statistically our goaltending hasn't been terrible. It hasn't been good either. It's rather average at best. As a team, we have given up an expected goals against of 244. Our actual goals against is 242.

The real problem? We have an expected goals for of 277, and an actual goals for of 240. According to expected goal models we've been insanely unlucky offensively. I think that can be borne out a little bit by the games we've all been watching as well. We've outshot our opponents heavily for a while now and have shit all to show for it wins-wise over the past 10+. Source: NHL Team Stats

Now I know some would say that's a result of Mike Sullivan's system. That may be true. I would suggest that it's probably more due to luck than anything, and that if our luck ever shifts soon, we may start piling up the goals. It's also a reason to actually be optimistic about this team, because our underlying numbers are actually pretty good. We just can't finish. And if the pucks start going in at expected rates, we're going to score a lot of goals.

Now I also know that there is a segment on here that doesn't care for expected goals. Fine. Then you can say xyz and I can say zyx and we'll never get anywhere because it's your eye test versus mine.

 

[Icarium]

But at the end of the day: good goalies play like good goalies, regardless of the gong show in front of them.

And good goalies can still have terrible numbers if the defense in front of them is a circus. See Gibson, John.

Jarry (when healthy) is absolutely good enough to be a starter for a playoff team. Even in this sub-par season he is having, he is 19th in save percentage among goalies with 20+ games. He was 6th last season. Very few goalies are consistently good, if that's your definition of a good goalie, then there are about 5 good goalies in the entire league. And of course, none of them plays for the Pens or is likely to any time soon.

Our goalies' mistakes get magnified because the Pens are mentally fragile and bad at making the most of their scoring chances. The Oilers, for example, have goaltending which isn't better than ours but they can outscore their problems far more often than us. Florida is right on our heels despite having worse goaltending. In the last two weeks alone the Pens managed to lose three games they could have won quite comfortably with slightly better finishing.

 

[Andy99]

Interestingly enough, our statistically our goaltending hasn't been terrible. It hasn't been good either. It's rather average at best. As a team, we have given up an expected goals against of 244. Our actual goals against is 242.

The real problem? We have an expected goals for of 277, and an actual goals for of 240. According to expected goal models we've been insanely unlucky offensively. I think that can be borne out a little bit by the games we've all been watching as well. We've outshot our opponents heavily for a while now and have shit all to show for it wins-wise over the past 10+. Source: NHL Team Stats

Now I know some would say that's a result of Mike Sullivan's system. That may be true. I would suggest that it's probably more due to luck than anything, and that if our luck ever shifts soon, we may start piling up the goals. It's also a reason to actually be optimistic about this team, because our underlying numbers are actually pretty good. We just can't finish. And if the pucks start going in at expected rates, we're going to score a lot of goals.

Now I also know that there is a segment on here that doesn't care for expected goals. Fine. Then you can say xyz and I can say zyx and we'll never get anywhere because it's your eye test versus mine.

the only thing I can say is you can call it luck only so much…our finishing has gone downhill the last three seasons…we were like 25th last season too…when it’s consistently bad, it’s one of two things and it can be both: 1) you don’t have talented shooters who can beat goalies with their shot or 2) how you play, the location shots are taken from and what kind of shots they are (ie low percentage chance of a goal) are not good enough compared to the best teams in the league…#2 implicates coaching…yes, I think our best players have aged and those are our best shooters and we need someone like a Pastrnak on this team ….but I also think that our coach doesn’t help the players out…we have a style that’s way too easy to defend, where everything gets cycled to the point and we hope for a tip or rebound or screen…Sullivan, in the name of playing north-south, doesn’t emphasize making East -west passes, and often you need to do that to get a goalie moving, that and being deceptive, changing the angle of the shot etc…

 

[vodeni]

Interestingly enough, our statistically our goaltending hasn't been terrible. It hasn't been good either. It's rather average at best. As a team, we have given up an expected goals against of 244. Our actual goals against is 242.

The real problem? We have an expected goals for of 277, and an actual goals for of 240. According to expected goal models we've been insanely unlucky offensively. I think that can be borne out a little bit by the games we've all been watching as well. We've outshot our opponents heavily for a while now and have shit all to show for it wins-wise over the past 10+. Source: NHL Team Stats

Now I know some would say that's a result of Mike Sullivan's system. That may be true. I would suggest that it's probably more due to luck than anything, and that if our luck ever shifts soon, we may start piling up the goals. It's also a reason to actually be optimistic about this team, because our underlying numbers are actually pretty good. We just can't finish. And if the pucks start going in at expected rates, we're going to score a lot of goals.

Now I also know that there is a segment on here that doesn't care for expected goals. Fine. Then you can say xyz and I can say zyx and we'll never get anywhere because it's your eye test versus mine.

thats all fine and dandy, but in life and in sports you can't wait for things to turn around and if you will luck to come your way. You need to do something about it...sometimes a little change, little move, especially obvious ones that can change condiitons in which those expected but not scored goals happen...

 

[Zirakzigil]

I dont think you can argue against the fact that both goalies played very well. Jarry made some great saves and deserved the shutout. Saros was the only reason that game was 2-0 and stopped a crap ton of shots.

 

[IcedCapp]

What I'm reading from your premise is that you think our team defense is "okay". If that's your stance, we're just going to disagree and call it a day

Our defense is separate from the goalie issues. Our defense is not great, but we’re surrendering fewer shots and chances than we’re earning , so our goalies are performing worse than our opponent’s.

Could the defense be better? Yeah. I’m not saying it’s good. I’m saying I blame the goalies for their .860 save percentage.

 

[Pancakes]

the only thing I can say is you can call it luck only so much…our finishing has gone downhill the last three seasons…we were like 25th last season too…when it’s consistently bad, it’s one of two things and it can be both: 1) you don’t have talented shooters who can beat goalies with their shot or 2) how you play, the location shots are taken from and what kind of shots they are (ie low percentage chance of a goal) are not good enough compared to the best teams in the league…#2 implicates coaching…yes, I think our best players have aged and those are our best shooters and we need someone like a Pastrnak on this team ….but I also think that our coach doesn’t help the players out…we have a style that’s way too easy to defend, where everything gets cycled to the point and we hope for a tip or rebound or screen…Sullivan, in the name of playing north-south, doesn’t emphasize making East -west passes, and often you need to do that to get a goalie moving, that and being deceptive, changing the angle of the shot etc…

There could be something systematically going on. The thing about it though is we used to be a better finishing team under Sullivan. It's only in the past two years that it has gone downhill.

So who knows. Like I said, if you buy expected goals as a model, then there's reasons for optimism and reasons to think we should be scoring more than we are.

If you don't buy into that model, then maybe you're more pessimistic about our offense.

thats all fine and dandy, but in life and in sports you can't wait for things to turn around and if you will luck to come your way. You need to do something about it...sometimes a little change, little move, especially obvious ones that can change condiitons in which those expected but not scored goals happen...

He should put Rakell with Crosby, Rust with Malkin, and call it a day. Or put Rakell with Crosby, Granlund with Malkin, and let Rust crater the third line.

But Sullivan won't do that. I dunno. Maybe Crosby just really likes playing with Rust and Sullivan caters to him. Or maybe Sullivan is just being stubbornly idiotic about this. I have no idea. It boggles the mind though.

We're getting nothing out of our first line right now and that's really hurting us. We need that line to score.

The second line is dominating but it's not enough to have just one working line.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Zucker - Sid - Rakell
Jake - Geno - Rust

If you wanna get more out of Rust then this would give you the best chance.
I'm confident Zuck would still be good with Sid, especially this season.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Zucker-Malkin-Granlund
Heinen-Poehling- Rust
O’Connor-Carter-Archibald

Makes the best use out of everyone and forces Rust to either put up or shut up. He can no longer 3rd wheel on the 3rd line. Hes barely putting up points with EN and time with Sid. Force him to start being involved or bench him.

 

[BusinessGoose]

No. It’s very very binary.

Our goalies are bad. Arguing otherwise is some weird need to find Jesus’ face on a piece of toasts. Good goalies make saves even when the defense breaks down. Our goalies don’t make those saves and the also don’t make the routinely mundane ones.

Because they’re bad.


Tell you what, I really dislike these posts, but instead of calling you names, I’ll actually put something on the line:

We’ll go through every shot together. If there are more “unscreened muffins from the point” than any other shot (so at least 26) I’ll delete my account forever.

If there are fewer than 26 unscreened muffins from the point, you’ll do it.

Sound fair?

I wasn't even replying to you with that.. But anyway...

Shot totals don't matter if they're bad shots

I'm calling the pens out for taking lame ass shots... Putting 50 on saros is moot when they aren't dangerous

Not trying to prop jarry up by saying the shots he faces are tougher

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

We could do something really wild and split up the combinations that have both floaters paired up and both guys who work away from the puck paired up. Maybe even put Rust on the 3rd line and throw some schlub who still has some hunger left like DOC or Poehling on with Geno and Zucker.

 

[Tender Rip]

I wasn't even replying to you with that.. But anyway...

Shot totals don't matter if they're bad shots

I'm calling the pens out for taking lame ass shots... Putting 50 on saros is moot when they aren't dangerous

Not trying to prop jarry up by saying the shots he faces are tougher

But, eh... a lot of these shots were dangerous. Saros made lots of difficult stops. And shot volume does matter as you are more likely to get lucky with deflections or rebounds, so less isn't more here.

As for Ice's comment about goaltending... I think it is fair to say that Jarry's non-playoff numbers are generally very good, and this years' worst games have been clearly linked to having had injuries. And... we play (often) pathetic defense.
That said, we do come back to whether he has ever been great when it really mattered. In the playoffs that's a no, and maybe I am just projecting, but even when great, he is not a guy with a stellar record of holding a 1 goal lead at the end. I had that kind of confidence with Murray during his good years - that maybe he wouldn't be winning the game for us, but he wouldn't be losing the game either. Can't say that is the case with Jarry, but it is admittedly hard to separate from team D.

Doubt it matters much either way this season, as it looks like Boston if we make it in, and that's just hard to see going well no matter who we have in net.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Zucker-Malkin-Granlund
Heinen-Poehling- Rust
O’Connor-Carter-Archibald

Makes the best use out of everyone and forces Rust to either put up or shut up. He can no longer 3rd wheel on the 3rd line. Hes barely putting up points with EN and time with Sid. Force him to start being involved or bench him.

Second line stinks here though.

If there is an appetite for trying Granlund in the top 6, why not try him on Sid’s line? Jake would benefit from another playmaker feeding him.

 

[vodeni]

By the way another FSG team looking stale and uninspired over on the soccer pitch not a good sign for today

 

[AuroraBorealis]

That said, we do come back to whether he has ever been great when it really mattered. In the playoffs that's a no

Our sample size for Jarry in the playoffs is this:

2020 - Great game 4 vs Montreal. .952. No support from the offense.
2021 - Mental collapse series vs the Isles...his first round as a starter
2022 - Pretty solid game 7 effort imo (on a hurt foot), despite the bad SV%. Was pretty screwed on the goals. Double screen in OT, absolute rocket top corner from Kreider on another, etc...

So if playoff failure is the reason to get rid of him, then people really are using a bad series as the decider, fueled by their frustration that the Pens haven't won a round since 2018.

That's an absurd approach when it comes to such a critical position. Many excellent goalies have had bad rounds. We need a bigger sample size there.
The reason I'd consider getting rid of Jarry is cuz of his very concerning injuries the last 2 years. But if you do that, you better have a pretty damn good replacement, cuz there's a strong chance Jarry will be a .915+ starter next year. Those guys aren't so easy to find, with scoring on the rise. Last I checked we're struggling to make the playoffs, so if his replacement doesn't have what it takes to even get us in then his playoff level is irrelevant.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Second line stinks here though.

If there is an appetite for trying Granlund in the top 6, why not try him on Sid’s line? Jake would benefit from another playmaker feeding him.

He should play with Zucker for sure. They were together for 5 years. There were even good signs in their 2+ periods together.
I'm totally open to Zucker - Sid - Granlund though.
I'd be very curious to see how Guentzel - Malkin - Rakell would fare.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I'm totally open to Zucker - Sid - Granlund though.
I'd be very curious to see how Guentzel - Malkin - Rakell would fare.

Agree, those are interesting lines for sure.

 

[LOGiK]

By the way another FSG team looking stale and uninspired over on the soccer pitch not a good sign for today

Not excusing LPFC at all, but coming into the match, knowing Liverpool beat city at home in the reverse fixture, taking into account LP horrible away record, taking into account secondly their noon-thirty record thirdly being at the ethiad in manchester (where they but rarely win)
It was almost, but almost written as a loss before they even kicked off.
(I'm just watching now so I don't know if they did indeed suffer defeat)

 

[Andy99]

Murderers row of four games in six days for the Pens…b2b this weekend and don’t discount the Flyers who have been playing well and then NJD without an extra day rest after the b2b and then the Wild…we probably need at least 6 points out of this stretch because Florida has a much easier schedule…the boys better come to play and play good

 

[NeonKnight]

Moon goes pointless for a month.

 

[LOGiK]

I really hate most all announcers at this point... isn't there any site service or stream that allows you to just listen to the game without the unending propaganda? Muting is there but you miss the sounds of the game and the crowd...

 

[BusinessGoose]

I really hate most all announcers at this point... isn't there any site service or stream that allows you to just listen to the game without the unending propaganda? Muting is there but you miss the sounds of the game and the crowd...

?????


Anyway, my issue is with how much most commentators MISS. Like, I'm watching the game, you are missing everything being busy filling dead air with your voice and figuring out what happened two mins later on a replay.

 

[LOGiK]

?????


Anyway, my issue is with how much most commentators MISS. Like, I'm watching the game, you are missing everything being busy filling dead air with your voice and figuring out what happened two mins later on a replay.

That too. It's several things that ruin it for me... not just in hockey but sports... if you watch a neutral broadcast they commentate semi-neutral but some have bias. Home feeds, on things that aren't exactly true and are their opinion. On top of the obvious pumping up / exaggerating games / plays / situations to where I am most fed up with them...
I either want strictly play-by-play with silence when nothing is happening or balanced and insightful analysis. Not their overlords pushing agenda's and stupid and unrelated to anything droning.

If you pay attention to it... you see it, well, hear it.
Some are unbearable, others do not even belong there, and few are decent.
Dead air for sports isn't the same thing as a different broadcasting venue there is no need to fill the entire game with blather.

my opinion.

 

[vikingGoalie]

Our sample size for Jarry in the playoffs is this:

2020 - Great game 4 vs Montreal. .952. No support from the offense.
2021 - Mental collapse series vs the Isles...his first round as a starter
2022 - Pretty solid game 7 effort imo (on a hurt foot), despite the bad SV%. Was pretty screwed on the goals. Double screen in OT, absolute rocket top corner from Kreider on another, etc...

So if playoff failure is the reason to get rid of him, then people really are using a bad series as the decider, fueled by their frustration that the Pens haven't won a round since 2018.

That's an absurd approach when it comes to such a critical position. Many excellent goalies have had bad rounds. We need a bigger sample size there.
The reason I'd consider getting rid of Jarry is cuz of his very concerning injuries the last 2 years. But if you do that, you better have a pretty damn good replacement, cuz there's a strong chance Jarry will be a .915+ starter next year. Those guys aren't so easy to find, with scoring on the rise. Last I checked we're struggling to make the playoffs, so if his replacement doesn't have what it takes to even get us in then his playoff level is irrelevant.

that is a pretty rosey way to look at jarry. I'd argue that his standard deviation is large, his highs can be really high, his lows are really low. Jarry was hurt in game 7, that shot over his shoulder was same way he got burned repeatedly against the islanders. He was too deep in net. period. Now, he was really hurt and it effected his mobility and that's probably why he couldn't telescope out like he should've. got it.
This is a results oriented business. Win or go home. We lost our last playoff series because of goal tending. We lost the the playoff series before that because of goal tending. We are going to be facing the most difficult possible opponent in the playoffs or maybe not make it in because of, goal tending.

Really, end of the day I don't care if he's hurt. I don't care what the excuse is anymore. The last 2 playoff runs and this one (if we make it) are most likely the last hurrah's for our big 3. Don't piss that away hoping that *this* time the goal tending might pull it together. I would've been ok keeping Jarry but instead of blowing 5M on a bag of sh*t called granlund go wrestle gibson out of anaheim and let those two battle it out.

Part of this is also when the goalies give up these goals, and how soft they really are. I'd love for Jarry go full on patrick roy for our playoff run, and eat crow. But I've seen how this ends a few times now and have yet to see any indication or given any hope that it'll end otherwise.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

that is a pretty rosey way to look at jarry. I'd argue that his standard deviation is large, his highs can be really high, his lows are really low. Jarry was hurt in game 7, that shot over his shoulder was same way he got burned repeatedly against the islanders. He was too deep in net. period. Now, he was really hurt and it effected his mobility and that's probably why he couldn't telescope out like he should've. got it.
This is a results oriented business. Win or go home. We lost our last playoff series because of goal tending. We lost the the playoff series before that because of goal tending. We are going to be facing the most difficult possible opponent in the playoffs or maybe not make it in because of, goal tending.

Really, end of the day I don't care if he's hurt. I don't care what the excuse is anymore. The last 2 playoff runs and this one (if we make it) are most likely the last hurrah's for our big 3. Don't piss that away hoping that *this* time the goal tending might pull it together. I would've been ok keeping Jarry but instead of blowing 5M on a bag of sh*t called granlund go wrestle gibson out of anaheim and let those two battle it out.

Part of this is also when the goalies give up these goals, and how soft they really are. I'd love for Jarry go full on patrick roy for our playoff run, and eat crow. But I've seen how this ends a few times now and have yet to see any indication or given any hope that it'll end otherwise.

Okay then. Let's factor in the weak team he plays for and get that out of the way...
Gibson the last 4 years among heavy workload netminders in goals saved above expected P60:

2019-20: 30th out of 34
2020-21: 20th out of 32
2021-22: 27th out of 32
2022-23: 31st out of 33

This is our saviour? We should scrap a top 10 goalie from last year for someone older and worse, because he can maybe start 10 more games or whatever in 2023-24? And what good does that do us, if he's not actually better than DeSmith in those surplus games? What if he gets hurt too, like every other f***ing player that comes here? Suddenly you're pining for Jarry at that point, because now your starter isn't healthy or good.

Then let's look at playoffs, since that's the only thing people care about and assume we'll somehow magically get in next year...
Gibson was .889 in the last series he played in. Ducks got swept. If memory serves, many goals were his fault?

Nah, I for one realize it's not 2018-19 anymore and that Gibson is no longer an upper echelon goalie. I'm all for discussing solutions but we need something smarter than this.
You don't just put your season in the hands of a guy that you're hoping against logic rediscovers his form from 5 years ago. Dude's washed. Blame the Ducks' defense all you want. He doesn't make enough saves that he should be making, and hasn't for a long time.