Series Talk: Pens vs. Habs --- THIS IS IT!!

[ColePens]

2 Things:

1) How dare you all let me defend ZAR and be right. You all should be ashamed of yourselves.

2) I honestly think if we played Philly in a best of 7 series, I give them the edge 52%/48%. They know exactly how to clog up our speed in the neutral zone and I trust their special teams more than ours. I think it would come down to that. Special teams and goaltending. But I would give them a very slight edge. But look at that.. 48% of the time we win. So... it's not like i'm saying something asinine here.

I know it was just a scrimmage but how they played us all year and in that scrimmage I thought to myself "Damn.. they are on to something when they play us. " They seem to lock in and force us to dump and we just don't want to do that. It doesn't even matter what the players are out there, they seem to commit to a strategy and go with it. I was quite impressed because they flat out know they won't out-talent us.

 

[Peat]

I didn’t see a lot of dump and chase except from the 4th line until the third...and I thought our defensive coverage too was pretty good with some mistakes...it’s why most of the game looked like last year’s POs to me...Sid and G would rather score off the rush...we had this discussion in the previous incarnation of this thread...the guys must be invested in beating the trap with ugly hockey and hard hard work, and if they don’t get that by the MTL series, I’d rather they just lose it...

it’s funny...I watched parts of the other two games and I thought overall (2 out of 3 periods) that the Pens looked like worst of the supposed contending teams...I’m excluding MTL and Calgary which aren’t expected to do much...in other words, to my eye, the Leafs, Philly and EDM were much better than the Pens...

Yet Philadelphia drew with us in regulation and needed a lucky bounce and suicidal pass to do so, and I think we spurned better chances than they did Which isn't to say that your eye test is wrong per se, but any day a good team playing better than can't actually put you away and is maybe a bit lucky on the best chances isn't an awful day. And a team that can take being outplayed most of the game and still storm back to get the best chances of the game late and finish regulation tied isn't a bad team.

And I particularly think any team that's willing to go that hard to avoid losing an exhibition game probably isn't the team that faced the Islanders.

 

[RSPens]

You two should really do some reading.
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-restart-storylines-1.5665102

Get off your high horse... 905Pens asked a question and I answered it with the information I had off the top of my head. Also what was even wrong with my response?

Top 4 teams play round robin (3 games each + 1 exhibition game)
Next 8 teams play best of 5 qualifying round based on current seeding (3-5 games + 1 exhibition)

 

[BHD]

The Habs' PP is something else.

- It takes them a good 30 seconds to get up the ice
- They struggle at maintaining possession upon entering the zone
- If they do achieve the aforementioned stages, it is immediately undone if the PP quarterback (Weber or Petry) is pressured - at all
- Finally, they tend to move the puck around in order to get it to Weber for a shot from the perimeter
- The only way they can create chances is by simply taking the puck to the net and jamming it for rebounds

 

[Peat]

I know it was just a scrimmage but how they played us all year and in that scrimmage I thought to myself "Damn.. they are on to something when they play us. " They seem to lock in and force us to dump and we just don't want to do that. It doesn't even matter what the players are out there, they seem to commit to a strategy and go with it. I was quite impressed because they flat out know they won't out-talent us.

I dunno if you mean the players don't want to do that, or it doesn't go to our strengths, but we were pretty much the best team in the league this year for recovering our dump-ins and making something dangerous of them. If a team just wants to trap against us it's completely in our ability to win by dump and chase.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

The Habs' PP is something else.

- It takes them a good 30 seconds to get up the ice
- They struggle at maintaining possession upon entering the zone
- If they do achieve the aforementioned stages, it is immediately undone if the PP quarterback (Weber or Petry) is pressured - at all
- Finally, they tend to move the puck around in order to get it to Weber for a shot from the perimeter
- The only way they can create chances is by simply taking the puck to the net and jamming it for rebounds

Yup. If Weber can be controlled and pressured up high there shouldn't be much there on that 1st pp wave.
Petry has a good shot as well and he unlike Weber puts the puck on net.

 

[Andy99]

The Habs' PP is something else.

- It takes them a good 30 seconds to get up the ice
- They struggle at maintaining possession upon entering the zone
- If they do achieve the aforementioned stages, it is immediately undone if the PP quarterback (Weber or Petry) is pressured - at all
- Finally, they tend to move the puck around in order to get it to Weber for a shot from the perimeter
- The only way they can create chances is by simply taking the puck to the net and jamming it for rebounds

The only team with comparable suckage is the Pens...should be a great special team’s battle...or not...lol

 

[BHD]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a game where each team scores a SHG.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Why would you not keep the pick if we're picking 15th? This is suppose to be a very deep draft. And if by chance we lose, the sooner we get a quality prospect in the fold, the better. If you wait to '21 to draft the pick, you're likely looking at a pick far later than number 15 and in a weaker draft class. Besides, you lose a year of development if you wait as well. No, if by some weird circumstance we lose to the Habs you keep the pick regardless if it's 1st or 15th.

For the record I'd rather win it all or lose now and get a high draft pick. So in your scenario I'd go 1,2,6,5,4,3.

Because we are trying to win NOW! A kid 2 or 3 years away does not help us reach that goal.

Unless you get Lafrenière (who is NHL ready), just let the pick go to Minnesota and have your first next year to trade for another run.

I prefer completely bottoming out when Sid and Geno are out than getting lost in mediocrity.

 

[Peat]

Because we are trying to win NOW! A kid 2 or 3 years away does not help us reach that goal.

Unless you get Lafrenière (who is NHL ready), just let the pick go to Minnesota and have your first next year to trade for another run.

I prefer completely bottoming out when Sid and Geno are out than getting lost in mediocrity.

It's a wee bit of a gamble, but the player selected at 15OA this year arguably has better value than a guy probably selected in the 20s in a year that might be pretty disrupted in terms of viewing opportunities - would probably have to go a fair bit wrong to have worse. And is probably considerably more valuable if not traded until after the expansion draft, which makes sense as spending big on a player just to increase the quality of player we lose to Seattle is pretty unattractive. Throw in the possibility of maybe getting a 1 and done - @Empoleon8771 's favourite choice of Braden Schneider has a good chance of being available there and is a pro-sized guy with a 1 year to AHL birthdate, so it's possible - and there's an argument for making the pick for win now. Bit riskier than keeping the pick to trade next year, but higher upside.

(edit: also - barring major injury, Sid's RW is the only area where there's a reasonable chance of trying to recruit the sort of player that requires a 1st to acquire next year, which also limits the risk of taking the pick)

(second edit: at the very least I think it would be responsible to see who falls. By my reckoning, it's a loaded consensus top 10 this year, and all it takes is a few reaches and a few teams deciding they must have dmen, and the next thing you know someone like Rossi or Quinn or Holtz is hanging around at 15, and that'd be a pretty big grab)

 

[Scandale du Jour]

It's a wee bit of a gamble, but the player selected at 15OA this year arguably has better value than a guy probably selected in the 20s in a year that might be pretty disrupted in terms of viewing opportunities - would probably have to go a fair bit wrong to have worse. And is probably considerably more valuable if not traded until after the expansion draft, which makes sense as spending big on a player just to increase the quality of player we lose to Seattle is pretty unattractive. Throw in the possibility of maybe getting a 1 and done - @Empoleon8771 's favourite choice of Braden Schneider has a good chance of being available there and is a pro-sized guy with a 1 year to AHL birthdate, so it's possible - and there's an argument for making the pick for win now. Bit riskier than keeping the pick to trade next year, but higher upside.

(edit: also - barring major injury, Sid's RW is the only area where there's a reasonable chance of trying to recruit the sort of player that requires a 1st to acquire next year, which also limits the risk of taking the pick)

If you feel like the guy you would pick at 15 this year would be able to contribute during this current window, sure, go for it. Talent on rookie contracts is necessary in a Cap world. If we can plug our holes from within with guys like POJ, Lafferty and Poulin, by all means, do it. That gives us more flexibility to add a RW for Sid or to retain both goalies. If you feel the guy we pick at 15 is one or two years away MAX, go for it.

If not, give up the pick and have an extra asset next year if you need it.

JR is pretty good with college free agents and trades. We still can add youth that way.

We are not in the stockpiling young talent business at this point. We are in win now mode. Will it hurt us down the line? Sure. But I prefer to bottom out and get the next superstar than fight for 8th-10th place.

 

[Peat]

If you feel like the guy you would pick at 15 this year would be able to contribute during this current window, sure, go for it. Talent on rookie contracts is necessary in a Cap world. If we can plug our holes from within with guys like POJ, Lafferty and Poulin, by all means, do it. That gives us more flexibility to add a RW for Sid or to retain both goalies. If you feel the guy we pick at 15 is one or two years away MAX, go for it.

If not, give up the pick and have an extra asset next year if you need it.

JR is pretty good with college free agents and trades. We still can add youth that way.

We are not in the stockpiling young talent business at this point. We are in win now mode. Will it hurt us down the line? Sure. But I prefer to bottom out and get the next superstar than fight for 8th-10th place.

The player picked will probably be the better trade asset.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, if you want to argue that they should be maximizing their ability to win-now with respect to the pick, they should draft someone and then use them as a trade chip down the line. Which one had more value, a 2nd round pick or Addison? Or if you want to go back, which was more valuable, the #20 pick or Angello Esposito?

Frankly, I don't see a justification for not keeping this year's pick if they lose to Montreal. The only argument I see is that they're scared of San Jose-ing the situation, where they give up a lottery 1st next year because they somehow collapse. I just don't see that happening to this team, though.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

The player picked will probably be the better trade asset.

Yeah, if you want to argue that they should be maximizing their ability to win-now with respect to the pick, they should draft someone and then use them as a trade chip down the line. Which one had more value, a 2nd round pick or Addison? Or if you want to go back, which was more valuable, the #20 pick or Angello Esposito?

Fair point. If the player picked is a better asset, go for it.

We either play him or trade him. Both work for me.

 

[Al Smith]

The only team with comparable suckage is the Pens...should be a great special team’s battle...or not...lol

Players should swear to refs they'll be on their best behavior to not commit penalties if refs won't call penalties on either team when they slip up a bit. In other words, in the best interests of the game, don't let either team's PP see the ice.

 

[The Old Master]

Because we are trying to win NOW! A kid 2 or 3 years away does not help us reach that goal.

Unless you get Lafrenière (who is NHL ready), just let the pick go to Minnesota and have your first next year to trade for another run.

I prefer completely bottoming out when Sid and Geno are out than getting lost in mediocrity.

any one in the top 10 - 13 may not be ready next year, but they are not far off, and any one could drop to 15 ( this years 15 are more like a normal year's top 10) i also would prefer bottoming out after sid and geno. but having more assets to trade is and will always be a good thing.

 

[DesertPenguin]

I do not dislike Sheary as much as most... but I would not want to lock myself into playing him as RW1... which is the only place he really fits on this team. We need to upgrade on him to maximize Jake and Sid, IMO.

Do you see him playing LW3? Can we justify the cost if we have to play him there?

Sheary is likely a luxury we cannot afford with the flat cap over the next several seasons. We may have to roll with one of Poulin or Lafferty instead. Maybe McCann - Sid - Guentzel and put Laff at 3C/4C.

 

[Andy99]

The North Shore Drive Sports Podcast | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Vensel is not very bullish on this team’s chances, especially beyond MTL should the Pens beat them...also agrees that Philly was the better team last night and says the PP has showed nothing, even during practice...

 

[DesertPenguin]

The North Shore Drive Sports Podcast | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Vensel is not very bullish on this team’s chances, especially beyond MTL should the Pens beat them...also agrees that Philly was the better team last night and says the PP has showed nothing, even during practice...

Hard for the PP to develop anything with Sid missing from practice. Let's hope they drill it hard over the next several days.

 

[Bingo71]

The Habs aren’t going to want to get into a track meet with the Pens. They will use what works, as the Flyers demonstrated last night. Clog up the NZ and force turnovers to take the other way. Force the Pens forwards to dump and chase...

How this team hasn’t figured out how to beat a trap by now is mind boggling.

 

[chethejet]

Adding assets is still a necessary component to a healthy franchise. Losing to the Habs is almost unthinkable but if they do and not get the top pick, then the win now mode has to be questioned if this team loses to the Habs. Take the pick at 15. Next year the Pens may be picking 31 if teams have to jettison good players due to cap space.

 

[KIRK]

2 things look to be a potential downfall in the postseason.

1) Powerplay/special teams: It is a big deal to have teams win the Cup. Gonchar had MASSIVE goals for us in 2009. We know the powerplay is important. @KIRK said in even the scrimmages there is NO movement. NO movement. And I hate giving that guy credit. But it had even less movement yesterday. It needs movement. Simple as that.

2) Goaltending/defense: Both need to be in sync. If you had to ask me right now based on the LIMITED action I see - Jarry looks better. But Murray is legit a big time player who has a track record better than some full careers. So it's hard to not go back to that well. It happens.

Both need to get going big time.

And here I logged in thinking you were planning to thank @Scandale du Jour and me for your birthday presents (a pair of stylish skechers and a Jack Johnson jersey). Oh well . . .

BTW, the support on the PP is as big an issue as the movement. There was a play in the 2nd where the Pens were on the PP and Marino won a great 1 on 2 battle high in the offensive zone. No support. He loses it, and it's a short handed chance the other way. Someone rightfully complemented Marino on the great play. But, then I wondered why the **** he's in a 1 on 2 battle high in the offensive zone with nobody nearby supporting him.

The great PP's work because they're predicated on movement and support designed to create good screened shooting opportunities and isolated 2 on 1's in high danger areas.

The Pens PP is predicated on someone making a great 1 on 1 (or more often 1 on 2) play, and it's only 'great' to the degree that a Sid or a Geno or someone else can make chicken salad out of tactical chicken shit.

 

[KIRK]

A major problem with the PP is that once Gonchar was gone besides Schultz for a brief moment we have had nobody to play the point. None of these guys are a threat up top or even more so can even get a shot on net. Letang on the PP is honestly like watching a live blooper loop.

Line 3 didn’t do much for me. Mcann really needs to pick his game up. Line 4 looked more dangerous although Teddy missed a few golden opportunities.

Thought the D overall was solid.

Both Goalies played well. 1st goal was a lucky bounce and the other two were basically breakaways.

Geno is our best player by a long shot right now. Although he did make a horrible decision for goal 2 against. He needs to be the featured line for Sully. Sid isn’t healthy.

This highlights another problem with the Pens PP. Nobody save Geno is a shooting threat. So, the PK cheats to take away his shot, and when there are chances for a shot, a lot of the time the pass to him is telegraphed and/or off the mark OR there's no screen set up.

Go back and look when it was Gonchar and Malkin. They'd work no look passes to each other all the time, so not only did you have two shooters but it also was impossible to cheat.

So many of Malkin's one timers worked that way . . . Gonchar would look at the net. If the shot was there and everyone was cheating a little towards Malkin, he'd flick the wrister and hope to sneak it through a screen or create a rebound. BUT, if you played him honest, he's put a no look pass right to Malkin's wheelhouse. A screened goalie was a little slow to react to the pass and thus the shot, but the Penguins player doing the screening would see it and slide his screen to prevent the goalie, already a little slow to react, from picking up Malkin's shot.

Not having that kind of threat makes movement and support on the PP even more imperative.

 

[KIRK]

It may be reading too much into 1 scrimmage, but here's how Montreal did last night in their match-up against Toronto:

-56% CF% but only 50% xGF% and 27% HDCF%
-The Habs top line (Tatar-Danault-Gallagher): 1 GF, 3 GA and okay xGF% (varied between 47% and 56% for each guy)
-All of the Habs D except for Weber, Petry and Chiarot got slaughtered, and Petry was only okay
-The Habs 3rd line (Lehkonen-Kotkaniemi-Byron) dominated the Leafs
-The Habs as a team gave up a lot of high danger chances and Price did terribly on them (5 stops on 9 high danger chances)

Yeah, I'm really not worried about the Habs. They only have 1 dangerous line, and that line isn't going to be amazing every game going up against either Crosby or Malkin. Price isn't what he once was. Their defense has like 2 great guys and 1 good guy, but that's really about it.

With looking at the Penguins analytics from yesterday, what's kinda funny is that Johnson-Schultz was utterly dominant analytically (like 83% xGF%) and ended up a +1. If you can get that bottom pair to do that twice in a series, you're in a great position IMO.

Those metrics actually are par for the course for the Habs. A lot of possession but very little by way of threats.

And, yes . . . not a lot in terms of personnel to match up.

 

[KIRK]

Habs have no depth. If our depth and higher talent cannot overcome them...

Their D is basically Weber, Petry and a bunch of jobbers. Even Petry is not that good. Offensively, sure, but defensively, he kinda sucks. Weber is too old to be playing 30 minutes a night. We should be able to sustain pressure in their zone.

They have one good forward lines and a few good players... but their best forward would be like... our 5th? Even with Domi on L4, their bottom 6 is atrocious. The Suzuki line could be good, but is not good enough to beat Sid OR Geno. The Danault line could win its match up... and Sully will probably nullify that by deploying BART against Danault.

And Weber is VERY susceptible to speed. Sid and Jake will give him fits, and while he might be able to lean on Geno a bit, Zucker's and Rust's speed will give him fits too.