Seravalli: Penguins offered Malkin a 4 year deal in the last 24 hours

[olli]

If the Pens sign Malkin for a $6.1M AAV, and Rakell for a $4.5M AAV, then if they move out Zucker (and even if they kept Dumoulin/McGinn/Blueger), they could sign Kadri for $7.5M and fit everyone else under the cap.

Why would they sign kadri to be a 3c??

 

[jmelm]

Why would they sign kadri to be a 3c??

They would play Kadri at 2C and move Malkin to the wing.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

Let’s be real, if Malkin is gone, the Pens are done, going to be hard to make the post season on the shoulders of one offensive line and a 35 year old d man

They're going to have more than enough space and motivation to acquire a solid talent if Malkin leaves. Also, he really hasn't been that impactful of a player as of late.

 

[Extra Texture]

If it’s 5 years long and front loaded that would be bad for the Pens because the cap hit stays even if Malkin leaves.

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Oh right, that caveat would hurt the Pens a little if he retired early. I take your point. No point in front loading such a deal. Still, the likeliest scenarios (in order of likelihood) for 2025 (3 years into said deal) and beyond are:

-The Pens window has slammed shut and the team is bad. Serviceable younger guys like Guentzel and Marino get sold off, and Crosby, Letang and Geno are the only ones playing out the string on their own terms, and 71 wants to call it earlier than the others. In this case, the cap hit wouldn't matter.

(less likely than that....)

-The Pens remain a playoff bubble team, but injuries finally catch up to Geno and he is LTIRd. In which case he collects the rest of his deal in Florida, and his contract becomes trade bait or some cap strapped team. In this case, the cap hit doesn't matter either.

(less likelier still)

-The very least likely scenario: The Pens are still good, to the point where cap actually matters, but Geno Malkin is a shell of his former self and cant contribute anymore. I just feel like, if the team is still going to somehow remain competitive the next 5 years, Malkin would have to be a big part of it.


The point is that there is a very very slim chance the Pens are still worried about cap implications by the time a 4 or 5 year deal for Malkin concludes. Same with Letang for 6. At the point where 87/71/58 are nearing retirement, and the Pens are declining, I hope the team cap is used to take bribes for bad contracts around the league.

 

[brewski420]

If the deal is not front loaded (4yrs/6m) and Geno retires after three does the fourth year hit the cap? If not maybe that is what the Pens want.

 

[chethejet]

I expect Malkin to decline in play. But the real decline won't be next year or probably year 2 since he is as healthy as he has been in two years with no off season surgery. I would think he is working hard to get in his best shape. So I for one was not in he is a must sign but 6 million like Letang will not be as severe in year 3 and 4 when the cap is going up. Letang was my priority, Second to me was Rakell for Sid as he looked to be a better fit. If Malkin is signed, then Hetall better find a way to deal Petts or Dumo for cap space. Then get a LD who can bring some bang to the mix.

 

[PainForShane]

They would play Kadri at 2C and move Malkin to the wing.

Or they could trade for a partially retained Patrick Kane (assuming he would re-sign with them, which I think would be likely given Sid / Geno). To me that seems a lot more likely (and much more dangerous, honestly)

 

[molon labe]

Think the sticking point with Geno is that he's always said he wanted to play 20 years with 1 team.

4 years puts him at 20.

 

[Riptide]

If it’s 5 years long and front loaded that would be bad for the Pens because the cap hit stays even if Malkin leaves.

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Yes, but like with the Letang contract... how much do you really care about these things once Crosby retires? Honestly I would have signed Malkin to 6 years to get that AAV as low as possible. Sure those last few years could be brutal... but the important parts are years 1-3. After that things get questionable as it would really depend on what Crosby is doing (assuming he's still playing at a high level). It's rare that a team can think this way... but PIT is one that's in a odd situation where that really is the case. Now maybe Crosby signs another contract and that changes things a little... but the current reality is that once those two are done playing at a high level, it doesn't really matter.

 

[RRhoads]

If they are going the frontloaded route like with Letang, it will probably front loaded with signing bonuses beyond the first year, and the cap will remain if he retires.

 

[DesertPenguin]

Malkin is going to get done and then you're going to see 2 or 3 other signings in the twilight before free agency. Gotta shave enough dollars to keep Rakell

 

[jmelm]

Or they could trade for a partially retained Patrick Kane (assuming he would re-sign with them, which I think would be likely given Sid / Geno). To me that seems a lot more likely (and much more dangerous, honestly)

If I was the Pens GM and trading for any big name player, it would be JT Miller over Kane. Younger, more versatile, will cost less on an extension (more years but less AAV than Kane). He can PK or PP, W or C, and his pure will power has to be among the very best in the league, right up there with MacKinnon & Crosby, etc.

Kane would be great, don't get me wrong. But if I had the choice between the two, I'd go Miller. And I'd really like to see Malkin on the wing at this point in his career.

 

[TheGreatOne11]

After them playing this game I wouldn't be surprised if he tested free agency just to make them sweat, he's never experienced it before so might as well experience it and see what its like to have teams throw themselves at you.

He deserves it, especially after the slap in the face the Penguins have made him deal with, make em sweat Evgeni, enjoy yourself, who knows maybe even make a tonne of bank.

 

[Roshi]

If its the 6m thats been speculated, i dont get why Pens has dragged this so long. Insane. Thats good deal for them and all they achieve is cracks with the relationship.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

If the Pens sign Malkin for a $6.1M AAV, and Rakell for a $4.5M AAV, then if they move out Zucker (and even if they kept Dumoulin/McGinn/Blueger), they could sign Kadri for $7.5M and fit everyone else under the cap.

You're not getting Kadri for $7.5M per try more like $9.0M to $9.5M per for 5 to 6 years or so.

 

[Riptide]

I expect Malkin to decline in play. But the real decline won't be next year or probably year 2 since he is as healthy as he has been in two years with no off season surgery. I would think he is working hard to get in his best shape. So I for one was not in he is a must sign but 6 million like Letang will not be as severe in year 3 and 4 when the cap is going up. Letang was my priority, Second to me was Rakell for Sid as he looked to be a better fit. If Malkin is signed, then Hetall better find a way to deal Petts or Dumo for cap space. Then get a LD who can bring some bang to the mix.

IF Malkin is signed. You move Dumo/MP for cap space and you replace him with POJ. Not great... but serviceable and affordable until the deadline. Besides, if POJ is never given a chance, then we might as well trade him. The kid can play.

MP/Dumoulin - Letang
Mathesson - Marino
POJ - Rudwedel/Freidman

 

[jmelm]

You're not getting Kadri for $7.5M per try more like $9.0M to $9.5M per for 5 to 6 years or so.

I was talking about on a 7 year term. I realize the AAV would be higher if the term was less. Not sure how many teams are going offer 7 years. The Pens are in a unique position because they have about 3-4 more years of being good before they totally suck, so they're not concerned about term (the 6th year for Letang/Rust/Rakell).

Other teams may need to more carefully balance the term and may prefer a shorter deal and higher AAV.

But if Malkin truly does leave and Kadri was going to be his replacement (rather than in addition to Malkin), then they could go to $8 or $8.5M.

I don't see any team giving Kadri $9M if the term is more than 4 or 5 years. I think he'll look for max term and money, not just the highest AAV on a shorter term.

And Seravalli believe's the number Kadri signs for will start with an 8, not a 9. I'll trust him on that.

 

[Midnight Judges]

As a FA, isn't Malkin likely to get more than $6M even if it's 4 years?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

As a FA, isn't Malkin likely to get more than $6M even if it's 4 years?

Sure a team like Detroit could offer him 8 million a year don’t see a playoff team giving him more than 6

 

[Pens x]

If its the 6m thats been speculated, i dont get why Pens has dragged this so long. Insane. Thats good deal for them and all they achieve is cracks with the relationship.

Because our GM is a moron and needs to go back to be a part-time “advisor.”

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If that’s the case what is Malkin looking for? Maybe the dollars were bad

Arr Eee Ess Pee Eee See Tee apparently.

 

[scoopscj]

I hate the Penguins, but if I’m honest…. I hope he stays with the Pens. He has earned it. Fans deserve it too.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I don’t understand these negotiation tactics. Little nuggets of info dropped here and there. Just f’in sign him or not.

If 4x6 is the real offer, Malkin is a loser for not taking it

He may just be curious now. If he waits to see what else is out there, there is no harm in that. He's earned the right.

 

[glovesave_35]

Sure a team like Detroit could offer him 8 million a year don’t see a playoff team giving him more than 6

I would bet every penny that he would get offers over 6 million from a playoff team.