Prospect Info: Penguins draft strategy: Cause for concern?

[penguins2946*]

This quote hit me really hard in that article:

The Penguins are a pipeline for European hockey leagues.

That's absolutely pathetic. During Shero's era, the Pens have produced 2 top-9 forwards (Staal and Bennett), and 0 outside of the 2nd round. It could even be easily argued that those 2 weren't even the best picks either. Jeffery is probably going to Europe soon, so that just adds another to that list. That's what happens when you spend over 50% of your early round picks on D.

 

[JTG]

Yeah, it hasn't been great drafting for Ray and Co, and it's just compounded because of the traded picks and prospects.

I still think he may have done well enough. Megna looks like an NHLer. Bennett looks like an NHLer. He's got draft picks for Letestu and Lovejoy who were undrafted guys. Lost Strait for nothing. Maatta is a hit, Despres is an NHLer. Bortuzzo is an NHL'er (and we got that pick by trading waiver wire pickup Chris Thorburn who wasn't even an every day player for us). Harrington should be an NHL'er. Turned Staal into Pouliot, Dumoulin (NHL'er), and Sutter who is a productive NHL'er.

His busts have been 2nd rounders (just like every Pittsburgh team). Sneep and Veilleux were top 32 picks. That hurts a bit.

 

[MtlPenFan]

Was about to make a thread for it, but it looks like the discussion has already started (again)

My favorite part was the Starkey quote, which basically says "Sid and Geno need to step up", all the while ignoring EVERYTHING else.

 

[mpp9]

Sid and Geno need to play smarter hockey. They've produced plenty in the playoffs over the course of their careers.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Overall, I think the biggest flaw of the article is in its failure to acknowledge injuries. Many of the forward prospects we drafted have fallen victim to long-term injuries that derailed their development, something you can't predict when drafting. Esposito, Veilleux, Bennett...these guys all had some real rotten luck. Hard to figure how much it affected their development, but the fact is they each sustained multiple long-term injuries early in their careers.

There are a few other things. The article omits forwards drafted in the 1st round under the pretense of "evening the playing field", when really, adding Staal's 543 games and 309 points would've only helped our standing, let alone Bennett. The subject of the article is the Pens lack of success drafting forwards, not their lack of success drafting forwards outside the 1st round.

There's also the fact that outside our 2 perpetually injured early round picks (Veilleux and Esposito), there were precious few forwards drafted in the first 3 years of Shero's tenure. After Staal (whose contributions were conveniently omitted), there were only CPZ, Caputi, Jeffrey, and Moon, all of them 3rd round or later. To get Jeffrey alone out of that lot is decent.

From '09 on, our drafts looks much more promising, and we're just starting to see the dividends from that year on.

 

[trader997]

Overall, I think the biggest flaw of the article is in its failure to acknowledge injuries. Many of the forward prospects we drafted have fallen victim to long-term injuries that derailed their development, something you can't predict when drafting. Esposito, Veilleux, Bennett...these guys all had some real rotten luck. Hard to figure how much it affected their development, but the fact is they each sustained multiple long-term injuries early in their careers.

There are a few other things. The article omits forwards drafted in the 1st round under the pretense of "evening the playing field", when really, adding Staal's 543 games and 309 points would've only helped our standing, let alone Bennett. The subject of the article is the Pens lack of success drafting forwards, not their lack of success drafting forwards outside the 1st round.

There's also the fact that outside our 2 perpetually injured early round picks (Veilleux and Esposito), there were precious few forwards drafted in the first 3 years of Shero's tenure. After Staal (whose contributions were conveniently omitted), there were only CPZ, Caputi, Jeffrey, and Moon, all of them 3rd round or later. To get Jeffrey alone out of that lot is decent.

From '09 on, our drafts looks much more promising, and we're just starting to see the dividends from that year on.

Esposito was drafted after the injury and to be fair his stock went down during his draft year because of that injury and he was a long shot from the beginning.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Esposito was drafted after the injury and to be fair his stock went down during his draft year because of that injury and he was a long shot from the beginning.

AFAIK, Esposito first tore the ACL in his knee in Feb of '09:

http://www.rotowire.com/hockey/player.htm?id=2509

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...ks-to-break-out-after-multiple-knee-injuries/

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1080403

He had some back issues prior to being drafted, but that's something different altogether. His knees caused him the most problems by far.

 

[IcedCapp]

one of Shero's biggest fans but damn, that Pens Blog article was despressing.

 

[Zaddy]

nothing we didn't already know but this piece is making the rounds:

http://www.thepensblog.com/2014-archives/march/shero-draft-piece.html

Pronman weighs in:



https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/442851346492837890

as an aside, Greenberg (a caps blogger and advocate for advanced stats) like any/every caps fan seems unhealthily obsessed with Crosby and the Pens.

That was a really good read actually. One of the best and most factual pieces of hockey journalism I've seen. It should really be a cause of concern for the Pens.

With their D core aging they can't really afford trading any of their young guys away for forward help either. Seems crucial they re-sign Niskanen if they want to trade one of them. At this point they can't really afford missing on their F picks either.

Crosby and Malkin are closer to 30 than 20 and as the author of the article mentioned, they might find themselves in a Vancouver Canucks type of situation real fast.

With all that being said they're still in a very good situation and if they can flip a D for a forward and hit on 2-3 guys the next 2 drafts they'll be fine. They should be getting a pretty good guy in this draft. Plenty of intruiging forward prospects late in the 1st round this year.

 

[Tender Rip]

nothing we didn't already know but this piece is making the rounds:

http://www.thepensblog.com/2014-archives/march/shero-draft-piece.html
.

Excellent stuff. One can make this or that concession for Shero... Something about injuries and (bad) luck, but it doesn't change that overall it stinks. Btw. I would be completely OK with that if he salvaged this weakness in free agency, and by making solid asset management moves such as getting assets when moving out declining/aging players with value. But we keep those until they're UFA's... and then frequently re-sign them to our detriment.

I think Bylsma a lot less competent than Shero, but if results aren't there this post-season, I would be A-OK with both of them getting canned. Last summer Shero married Bylsma and they deserve to stand or fall together.

 

[Gurglesons]

one of Shero's biggest fans but damn, that Pens Blog article was despressing.

Jesus, I feel the same way.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It's kind of scary that all these old threads keep getting bumped up, and the issues we saw back when they were first created still hold true today.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

I pretty much laugh at (not with) most of the **** that comes out of that blog, but God damn, if they didn't hit the nail on the head with that post. Extremely thorough, detailed, and to be honest damning of Shero. Hell of a post, and probably the best thing they've ever produced.

My God, Shero and this organization suck even worse at developing forwards than I realized. They pretty well debunked the whole "Well, we trade our d-men prospects for forward help!" stuff thoroughly as well.

 

[Giskard]

At the moment we only have Zlobin and Kühnhackl that are up and down from WBS to Wheeling ... Marcantuoni is the only drafted player in the CHL (meh...) ... and 7 F guys in the NCAA (only Rust is a senior) ... oh and Sundqvist in Sweden ... so no, this stats will not change in the near future

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

I also love the "Friendly reminder that Bennett has scored 4 goals in the NHL in 38 games" quip at the end. I, like most people, am very high on Bennett. I see high potential there, and have the best hopes, but between Bylsma and constant/nagging injuries, it's pretty troubling. Lots of people get up in arms and seem personally offended when discussing Bennett. I think he's far from a slam dunk, but here's to hoping.

 

[IcedCapp]

one thing I want to point out:

I don't know how many bottom-6 holes the Penguins actually have. Did they need Stempniak and Goc? Depth never hurts. But the Penguins don't NEED to be playing Pyatt, Glass and Adams as is.

The problem is, Bylsma refuses to acknowledge that those three are the problem.

If they had Megna and Zolnierczyk in for two of those players, would our bottom-6 look dramatically different?

It would be faster, that's for sure.

That's not to say the Goc and Stempniak moves wouldn't be welcomed - they are better than those players - but the Pens DO have bottom-6 players in the system who are better than their current NHL bottom-6 players, they just refuse to acknowledge it.

(I know neither player was drafted by Shero. Being drafted isn't a requisite for filling holes. If he was playing the best possible players, it might quell the criticism)

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I also love the "Friendly reminder that Bennett has scored 4 goals in the NHL in 38 games" quip at the end. I, like most people, am very high on Bennett. I see high potential there, and have the best hopes, but between Bylsma and constant/nagging injuries, it's pretty troubling. Lots of people get up in arms and seem personally offended when discussing Bennett. I think he's far from a slam dunk, but here's to hoping.

If there were ever a dumb, misrepresentative hockey evaluation, it's that quote. Judging Bennett by goals is like judging Ovechkin by assists.

"How about that Joe Thornton...only 9 goals in 65 games! What a loser!"

Does anything in the guy's play suggest he's been anything but impressive?

 

[UnrealMachine]

If there were ever a dumb, misrepresentative hockey evaluation, it's that quote. Judging Bennett by goals is like judging Ovechkin by assists.

"How about that Joe Thornton...only 9 goals in 65 games! What a loser!"

Does anything in the guy's play suggest he's been anything but impressive?

I don't perceive that the same way as you do. To me, that quote spoke more to Bennett's overall lack of NHL experience. The Pens will be getting back someone with considerable skill & determination, but he is essentially still at the very beginning of his NHL career. His overall production is a reflection of that and may continue to be so for some time.

 

[Shady Machine]

Overall, I think the biggest flaw of the article is in its failure to acknowledge injuries. Many of the forward prospects we drafted have fallen victim to long-term injuries that derailed their development, something you can't predict when drafting. Esposito, Veilleux, Bennett...these guys all had some real rotten luck. Hard to figure how much it affected their development, but the fact is they each sustained multiple long-term injuries early in their careers.

There are a few other things. The article omits forwards drafted in the 1st round under the pretense of "evening the playing field", when really, adding Staal's 543 games and 309 points would've only helped our standing, let alone Bennett. The subject of the article is the Pens lack of success drafting forwards, not their lack of success drafting forwards outside the 1st round.

There's also the fact that outside our 2 perpetually injured early round picks (Veilleux and Esposito), there were precious few forwards drafted in the first 3 years of Shero's tenure. After Staal (whose contributions were conveniently omitted), there were only CPZ, Caputi, Jeffrey, and Moon, all of them 3rd round or later. To get Jeffrey alone out of that lot is decent.

From '09 on, our drafts looks much more promising, and we're just starting to see the dividends from that year on.

By all means add in Staal and then add in every other team's 1st round picks. I'd bet we wouldn't look much better. The reason Staal is removed is because, for the most part, it's really hard to fail on a top 3 pick. If you add in Staal, add in everyone else.

While the article isn't perfect, it is pretty obvious Shero and his staff has failed to draft NHL forwards. You can point to lack of picks (that's partly the point), injuries, whatever else you want to but it's all an excuse.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

nothing we didn't already know but this piece is making the rounds:

http://www.thepensblog.com/2014-archives/march/shero-draft-piece.html

Pronman weighs in:



https://twitter.com/coreypronman/status/442851346492837890

as an aside, Greenberg (a caps blogger and advocate for advanced stats) like any/every caps fan seems unhealthily obsessed with Crosby and the Pens.

The bullets at the end are pretty telling:

- Pens are having a lot of trouble drafting and producing talent at the forward position. Friendly reminder that Beau Bennett has scored 4 goals in 38 NHL games.

- Logjam at forward position in Pens organization? Brian Gibbons. Your argument is invalid. That topic should not even be discussed. If you’re using that logic, Brendan Gallagher, if drafted by the Penguins, would be in Wilkes-Barre right now because Brian Gibbons is the next big thing.

- Don’t fall for the myth that Shero and his staff drafts and then trades promising defensemen for help at the forward position. We’ve still yet to see it with his own draft picks.

- This summer will see Ray Shero drafting his 9th class as GM of the Penguins.

- The Penguins are a pipeline for European hockey leagues.

- Maybe when Shero trades for a draft pick, he comes up with a new stipulation where that team drafts the pick for him.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Overall, I think the biggest flaw of the article is in its failure to acknowledge injuries. Many of the forward prospects we drafted have fallen victim to long-term injuries that derailed their development, something you can't predict when drafting. Esposito, Veilleux, Bennett...these guys all had some real rotten luck. Hard to figure how much it affected their development, but the fact is they each sustained multiple long-term injuries early in their careers.

There are a few other things. The article omits forwards drafted in the 1st round under the pretense of "evening the playing field", when really, adding Staal's 543 games and 309 points would've only helped our standing, let alone Bennett. The subject of the article is the Pens lack of success drafting forwards, not their lack of success drafting forwards outside the 1st round.

There's also the fact that outside our 2 perpetually injured early round picks (Veilleux and Esposito), there were precious few forwards drafted in the first 3 years of Shero's tenure. After Staal (whose contributions were conveniently omitted), there were only CPZ, Caputi, Jeffrey, and Moon, all of them 3rd round or later. To get Jeffrey alone out of that lot is decent.

From '09 on, our drafts looks much more promising, and we're just starting to see the dividends from that year on.

Leaving out 1st rounders helps Shero's draft record not hurts it. He's gotten 1 legit player in the 1st round.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Excellent stuff. One can make this or that concession for Shero... Something about injuries and (bad) luck, but it doesn't change that overall it stinks. Btw. I would be completely OK with that if he salvaged this weakness in free agency, and by making solid asset management moves such as getting assets when moving out declining/aging players with value. But we keep those until they're UFA's... and then frequently re-sign them to our detriment.

I think Bylsma a lot less competent than Shero, but if results aren't there this post-season, I would be A-OK with both of them getting canned. Last summer Shero married Bylsma and they deserve to stand or fall together.

That's a good point.

Shero covered up his bad drafting and FA signings with his three big trades. But those were years ago and now his bad drafting and inability/unwillingness to sign FAs has caught up to him.

The point about VAN and the Sedins has me scared. It wasn't too long ago the argument went from, "Sid and Geno are only 24/25, they got a log of time" to "Sid and Geno are only 26/27, they got a log of time". I really hope we're not saying the same thing when they're 33/34.

 

[billybudd]

one thing I want to point out:

I don't know how many bottom-6 holes the Penguins actually have. Did they need Stempniak and Goc? Depth never hurts. But the Penguins don't NEED to be playing Pyatt, Glass and Adams as is.

The problem is, Bylsma refuses to acknowledge that those three are the problem.

If they had Megna and Zolnierczyk in for two of those players, would our bottom-6 look dramatically different?

It would be faster, that's for sure.

That's not to say the Goc and Stempniak moves wouldn't be welcomed - they are better than those players - but the Pens DO have bottom-6 players in the system who are better than their current NHL bottom-6 players, they just refuse to acknowledge it.

(I know neither player was drafted by Shero. Being drafted isn't a requisite for filling holes. If he was playing the best possible players, it might quell the criticism)

Broadly speaking, if you ask me, an NHL bottom six should be able to do two things--be difficult to play against (which can mean a lot of things) and, if not outright win their minutes, then at least come close to breaking even. There isn't one bottom-six player in this organization who does both (Megna gets the closest).

The way I see it, there are six holes in the bottom half of the forward roster, though that doesn't necessarily mean, for example, Vitale wouldn't start winning his minutes if we had two of Mike Rupp from five years ago flanking him.

This isn't to say Goc doesn't help matters, however. A guy who does one of the two things you want from a bottom sixer (in his case, win his minutes) is better than a guy who does zero, such as Sutter.

 

[billybudd]

If there were ever a dumb, misrepresentative hockey evaluation, it's that quote. Judging Bennett by goals is like judging Ovechkin by assists.

"How about that Joe Thornton...only 9 goals in 65 games! What a loser!"

Does anything in the guy's play suggest he's been anything but impressive?

If one were to judge Ovechkin's career by assists, he passes the evaluation with flying colors. For a pure shooter and a wing to have the 11th most assists since he entered the NHL is astounding, frankly.

Thornton is first by the same measure, so I'm not sure what he's meant to have in common with Bennett.

 

[Fire Shero*]

Good article, I think most of the non-homers knew that Shero is absolutely horrible at drafting forwards.

I finally think others are realizing Shero is not very good GM. He inherited a great up and coming team and used existin assets to improve the team.

Will he ever be able to use one of his own drafted assets to acquire top 6 talent?

Gotta love the people still defending Shero. But but injuries. But but we pick late in the draft. But but we trade our picks (for pure rentals).