I like Jarry, but has he shown the upside to be a #1 at the NHL level? He's played one game...and his stats in that game weren't good at all.
I went with him, but depending on what you read, unlike when I would read about Murray, some scouts do believe he will be a backup NHL netminder. Almost every scouting report I read about Murray said that he showed starter potential. Gustavsson's scouting report reads much more like Murray's. Gustavsson needs to stay healthy though.
I wouldn't read anything into Jarry's stats in that one game. That was a meaningless game for the Pens in which he was playing behind a roster that was sitting most of the top players against a team that wasn't doing the same thing.
Here's the list of scratches for that game (ordered by player number, as per the official NHL rosters from that game
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20162017/RO021226.HTM ):
Penguins: Ruhwedel, Schultz, Daley, Cullen, Kunitz, Rust, Cole, Sheary, Guentzel, Malkin, Crosby, Murray
Rangers: Clendening, Puempel, Hayes, Fast, Kreider, Smith, Kapmfer, Rannta
The Pens sat literally half their roster (including their entire first line and 2/3rds of their second), and still only barely lost to the Rangers 3-2. I don't think one can really infer anything from Jarry's stats in that game.
Jarry has the most success at the level closest to the NHL, but goalies are the least predictable of all the positions, by far. I think you have to either have draft pedigree or a really remarkable AHL start as a goalie to be looked at as a can't miss prospect.
Jarry has been very good on balance, but he slumped late and lost the WBS starter's role by the playoffs in each of the last 2 years to DeSmith, who isn't anybody's idea of a blue chipper.
Jarry didn't lose the starter's role to DeSmith in the playoffs this past year. He wasn't available, because he was backing up Fleury in the NHL at the time. By the time Murray was ready to play again, the Baby Pens were already eliminated.