Speculation: Penalty Kill Discussion

[Hunter368]

I thought we could use a PK thread to discuss options, player usage and structure.

Click to read more...

 

[Jets 31]

The PK has to be better this season, more aggressive no more passive box , go after the players more aggressively and force the other team to make mistakes. Maybe give Harkins a shot killing penalties .

 

[Jack722]

Have we ever had a really good PK?

 

[DRW204]

Have we ever had a really good PK?

2017-2018 it was top 10 in the nhl

 

[surixon]

Just burn our PK play book and start from scratch.

 

[voyageur]

I think skaters matter. Lowry and Copp tend to overcommit up top, but neither is really a flyer. Split them up, maybe bring in someone like Grabner to play with Lowry, and move Copp down with Appleton and you'd have a little more balance. The talented players don't do as well because they don't like to block shots, as a forward that's fundamental. I think we are pretty good at protecting the middle of the ice, but vulnerable to a good behind the net attack, which is the toughest for a goalie to read, with a smaller defense.

Some of it is the passive style in defending the zone, very rarely applying heavy pressure on the boards. I think the Jets aren't too bad at standing up outside the zone. If Hellebuyck could play the puck better, it would be easier on our defense.

 

[Gm0ney]

2017-2018 it was top 10 in the nhl

The 2017-18 PK was not actually good - it gave up tons of shots, but the argument was that they were low quality perimeter shots...well, there were lots of those as well, but mostly we just had Hellebuyck putting on a clinic in goal every night. 2nd highest GSAA on the PK that year, highest xGA, 2nd-most HD shots against (by 1), most rebound attempts against.

That PK would've been a disaster without Vezina caliber goaltending...

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think skaters matter. Lowry and Copp tend to overcommit up top, but neither is really a flyer. Split them up, maybe bring in someone like Grabner to play with Lowry, and move Copp down with Appleton and you'd have a little more balance. The talented players don't do as well because they don't like to block shots, as a forward that's fundamental. I think we are pretty good at protecting the middle of the ice, but vulnerable to a good behind the net attack, which is the toughest for a goalie to read, with a smaller defense.

Some of it is the passive style in defending the zone, very rarely applying heavy pressure on the boards. I think the Jets aren't too bad at standing up outside the zone. If Hellebuyck could play the puck better, it would be easier on our defense.

We should try Ehlers on the pk as long as he’s second unit pp he needs to get his minutes up. He is smart and fast.

 

[voyageur]

We should try Ehlers on the pk as long as he’s second unit pp he needs to get his minutes up. He is smart and fast.

It's been suggested, he's got the wheels and the skill. Could be like the old times, with Pavel Bure. I would worry about defenseman shooting at him though if he gets in the lanes. Shots to the knees and feet slow you down. It's an interesting idea though, he'd beat just about any defenseman in a one on one foot race.

 

[DRW204]

The 2017-18 PK was not actually good - it gave up tons of shots, but the argument was that they were low quality perimeter shots...well, there were lots of those as well, but mostly we just had Hellebuyck putting on a clinic in goal every night. 2nd highest GSAA on the PK that year, highest xGA, 2nd-most HD shots against (by 1), most rebound attempts against.

That PK would've been a disaster without Vezina caliber goaltending...

thanks for the info. where did we rank this year in those stats on the PK?

 

[LowLefty]

It's been suggested, he's got the wheels and the skill. Could be like the old times, with Pavel Bure. I would worry about defenseman shooting at him though if he gets in the lanes. Shots to the knees and feet slow you down. It's an interesting idea though, he'd beat just about any defenseman in a one on one foot race.

That would be my concern as well - it's a skill that needs to be taught, especially to guys that have had very little exposure to PK - How to block shots and minimize risk of injury. The last thing I want to see is Ehlers out for weeks after blocking a shot on the PK.

I think in general, a better D will be a big plus in defending on the PK - guys that can jump on player / puck when / if the box breaks down. We need to be first to loose pucks and confident / fast / and strong enough to take on players one on one in the corners, walls, or in front. We allow way to much time / space for the PP to operate.

 

[Gm0ney]

thanks for the info. where did we rank this year in those stats on the PK?

	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20
Team PK%	81.8% (9th)	79.2 % (22nd)	77.6% (22nd)
Team PK SV%	.8975 (5th)	.8744 (7th)	.8582 (20th)
SA/60	64.72 (3rd)	59.05 (5th)	58.67 (4th)
xGA/60	7.98 (3rd)	7.03 (8th)	7.28 (3rd)
HDCA/60	21.62 (14th)	21.25 (11th)	22.47 (7th)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For all the /60's stats, a higher rank is worse - so over the last 3 seasons the Jets have given up the 3rd, 5th and 4th most shots per 60 on the PK. 3rd, 8th and 3rd most expected goals against per 60. The plan to allow lots of shots but limit HDCA has been slipping. The Jets took the 2nd fewest penalties last season after taking the 8th and 11th most penalties the two seasons prior, so that helped limit the number of PK goals against, anyway...

 

[Jets 31]

	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20
Team PK%	81.8% (9th)	79.2 % (22nd)	77.6% (22nd)
Team PK SV%	.8975 (5th)	.8744 (7th)	.8582 (20th)
SA/60	64.72 (3rd)	59.05 (5th)	58.67 (4th)
xGA/60	7.98 (3rd)	7.03 (8th)	7.28 (3rd)
HDCA/60	21.62 (14th)	21.25 (11th)	22.47 (7th)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For all the /60's stats, a higher rank is worse - so over the last 3 seasons the Jets have given up the 3rd, 5th and 4th most shots per 60 on the PK. 3rd, 8th and 3rd most expected goals against per 60. The plan to allow lots of shots but limit HDCA has been slipping. The Jets took the 2nd fewest penalties last season after taking the 8th and 11th most penalties the two seasons prior, so that helped limit the number of PK goals against, anyway...

No Buff to give penalties to just for absolutely destroying someone.

 

[Gm0ney]

No Buff to give penalties to just for absolutely destroying someone.

The Top 5 PIM leaders for the 2018-19 Jets were Buff, Lemieux, Myers, Chiarot and Wheeler. 4 out of 5 gone.

 

[ps241]

Crickets eh?

All our brilliant Board micro managers obsess about the PP but seem to have no passion for the equally important PK??

I guess if your pet players can’t pad their Scoring stats who cares about goals against??

 

[JetsFan815]

Personell on the backend is the obvious issue with the Jets PK but there is a lack of depth of forwards that can kill penalties, esp after Little being sidelined and Tanev leaving (we can argue if Tanev was any good at it but he ate those minutes). It puts too much pressure on Wheeler and Scheifele. Wheeler esp at his age should not be put in those hard minutes and be kept fresh for 5 on 5. I am disappointed the Jets didn't chose to address that in the UFA market and no Nate Thompson is not the one to lead us to the PK promised land. Jankowski is an elite PK'r, we should have signed him at league minimum and he would have helped us.

Now we just got to hope that Appleton and Harkins can develop into good PK'rs. Still no answers in sight for solutions on the backend.

 

[Duke749]

Crickets eh?

All our brilliant Board micro managers obsess about the PP but seem to have no passion for the equally important PK??

I guess if your pet players can’t pad their Scoring stats who cares about goals against??

Rare roast from ps241.

In truth discussing PK is not nearly as fun. But our issues again seem quite simple. Too passive. I also think having smart defensemen make a world of difference. Chiarot and Myers were not great at making the necessary reads often.

 

[voyageur]

Rare roast from ps241.

In truth discussing PK is not nearly as fun. But our issues again seem quite simple. Too passive. I also think having smart defensemen make a world of difference. Chiarot and Myers were not great at making the necessary reads often.

There's no glory in the PK. Just a career. I think the emphasis should be on forwards too, we were a lot better with Tanev, who never shied away from shot blocking, and Armia, who had the wheels and size to pressure. It's not so much of a puck movement issue, as a movement issue. Being first on the puck in a race goes a long way, so it's the first strides that really matter. For defenseman, if you have size you can shield out players, by pinning them on the boards. Height generally helps you with reach or stick position. Smarts always help, you know good sticks in the passing and shooting lanes. Defensemen have to be able to box out 2nd chances.

 

[ps241]

Rare roast from ps241.

In truth discussing PK is not nearly as fun. But our issues again seem quite simple. Too passive. I also think having smart defensemen make a world of difference. Chiarot and Myers were not great at making the necessary reads often.

Yea I meant to use the sarcasm GIF but forgot.

honestly I don’t think there much to discuss on the PP or PK. On The PK we needs to be less passive. Hopefully with DeMelo and a Samberg Lowry Copp Apples and Harkins we can do better.

Coaches need to redesign around More pressure.

 

[Gm0ney]

Personell on the backend is the obvious issue with the Jets PK but there is a lack of depth of forwards that can kill penalties, esp after Little being sidelined and Tanev leaving (we can argue if Tanev was any good at it but he ate those minutes). It puts too much pressure on Wheeler and Scheifele. Wheeler esp at his age should not be put in those hard minutes and be kept fresh for 5 on 5. I am disappointed the Jets didn't chose to address that in the UFA market and no Nate Thompson is not the one to lead us to the PK promised land. Jankowski is an elite PK'r, we should have signed him at league minimum and he would have helped us.

Now we just got to hope that Appleton and Harkins can develop into good PK'rs. Still no answers in sight for solutions on the backend.

I don't think it is personnel. I think it's definitely the system - if you look back at the last 3 years, the Jets seem to have a similar pattern, statistically: give up a lot of shots, at least try to keep them low-danger - but invariably the more you allow, the higher the chances something bad happens...even if there are no brainfarts, someone misses a clearing attempt or takes a puck off the ankle or a stick breaks and you're up Schitt's Creek.

Same thing with the eye-test. Passive box, clog the middle. It's been like that forever no matter who's on for the PK. And it's not terribly effective.

PK TOI Leaders:
2017-18: D - Myers, Morrissey, Kulikov, Trouba; F - Copp, Tanev, Hendricks, Wheeler, Lowry
2018-19: D - Trouba, Myers, Morrissey, Chiarot; F - Lowry, Tanev, Little, Scheifele, Copp
2019-20: D - Bitetto, Beaulieu, Sbisa, Kulikov; F - Copp, Lowry, Connor, Shore, Wheeler

 

[voyageur]

I'm not really a stats guy but here are some stats worth considering.

The top 10 minutes leaders in average time on ice last year were

Beaulieu 2:18
Copp 2:18
Lowry 2:13
Bitetto 2:11
Sbias 1:57

De Melo was 6th at 1:53, followed by Shore, Kulikov, Little, Connor

Morrissey (14) averaged 0:57, Appleton (15) 0:55, Pionk (16) 0:53 Poolman (17) 0:42, Wheeler (18) 0:39

Pionk was an early injury replacement, as the season went on Morrissey started to be the one who joined the rotation, with another defenseman in the box.


In terms of GA/60

Appleton was #1 at 2.8/60
2. De Melo at 3.2, which coincided with a rise in our late season rankings and a winning streak
3. Poolman, 5.6
4. Morrissey, 5.7
5. Copp, 6.2
6. Little, 6.4
7. Shore, 6.7
8. Lowry, 7.2
9. Eakin, 7.9
10. Beaulieu 8.2

Technically Dahlstrom was 1st at 0, but with limited minutes.

Sbisa was 9.0 GA/60. He was a 3.8/60 in 2018-2019 with the Isles, so that may say something about coaching, or personnel.

Connor 11.1/60, Scheifele 11.4, Wheeler 13.4, and Pionk 14.7

Forbort posted a 4.2/ 60 with the Flames, and a 15.0 with the Kings, with a 9.7 in 2018-2019
Nate Thompson posted a 4.0/60 with the Flyers, and a 7.7 with the Canadiens, 3.7 in 2018-2019
Both played around the 2 minute mark for their respective teams.
Toninato posted an 8.7 in limited minutes.


Leading the teams in GF/60 was Nikolaj Ehlers with 12.5 or a goal with an average of 0:01 in ice time.

Wheeler and Connor at 2.4/60, Beaulieu at 2.0, Morrissey at 1.9

Thompson and Forbort were definitely brought in to bolster the PK. Toninato will probably get a chance as well.

I'd say there is room for another forward still in this department. But with a healthy Morrissey, De Melo, Poolman and one of Beaulieu or Forbort there could be some improvements next year. Samberg may join this rotation as well.

It would be good to add Moose stats, as they may or may not endorse players like Gustafsson, Kovacevic, Suess, Stanley and Gawanke,

 

[ecolad]

Crickets eh?

All our brilliant Board micro managers obsess about the PP but seem to have no passion for the equally important PK??

I guess if your pet players can’t pad their Scoring stats who cares about goals against??

Well you`ve thrown out the challenge (even if sarcastically) and I can try to get the conversation going. As with the PP though, most posters do not really want to have a conversation around "alternative systems" or "alternative coaching philosophies". There are fundamentally three differing "systems" for the PK - the Diamond, the Box ,and the Wedge+1. You can probably visualize the first 2; the 3rd is a variation where there are 3 collapsing players at netfront, with one speeding around following the puck in an effort to create havoc on the perimeter. The objective is not so much to actually create turnovers but more to disrupt the other team from setting up. The coaching philosophy affects how the Diamond and/or the Box actually work, with some coach`s advocating an early collapse while others advocate less collapsing and more aggressive attack of the high shooters. With Maurice being an ultra conservative coach and advocating conservative 5v5 play, it should be no surprise that he advocates a conservative approach to the PK. My eyes suggest that the Jets have tried both the Diamond and the Box, both with an early collapse into the slot quickly giving up the blueline. Seems like the objective is to of course keep the puck carrier outside and to use active sticks to cutoff passing lanes into the slot area or netfront. Maurice has even opined that the objective is to keep shots coming from predictible locations, where Helly can more readily handle them. My feeling is that the sophisticated PP options available now will feast on passive PK systems such as ours, especially when they game prep knowing what we`ll do every single time in advance.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

The 2017-18 PK was not actually good - it gave up tons of shots, but the argument was that they were low quality perimeter shots...well, there were lots of those as well, but mostly we just had Hellebuyck putting on a clinic in goal every night. 2nd highest GSAA on the PK that year, highest xGA, 2nd-most HD shots against (by 1), most rebound attempts against.

That PK would've been a disaster without Vezina caliber goaltending...

Not only was the 2017-2018 PK not good, I believe it came up it was the worst EVER in terms of shots against in the entire salary cap era. Ates & Hohl each referenced this and referred to the PK moving forward as "unsustainable"

 

[MardyBum]

Crickets eh?

All our brilliant Board micro managers obsess about the PP but seem to have no passion for the equally important PK??

I guess if your pet players can’t pad their Scoring stats who cares about goals against??

I thoroughly enjoyed your well thought out solutions to the PK you posted before this little flame war attempt.

@surixon already posted the correct answer. Burn it to the ground.

 

[voyageur]

Penalty-kill's rise from the ashes fuels Jets' plan to March into playoffs

I say build off the positives. Starts with healthy personnel. Continues with depth. We added some replacements, though none yet for Bryan Little and the RH draw, maybe Shore is still in negotiations. Maurice showed a willingness to go beyond his vets, and team leaders, to fundamental PKers last year. Poolman and Appleton rose up the lineup. Connor was relegated from the top 4 as the season moved on, Scheifele and Wheeler did not get regular reps, which was long overdue.

The say your best penalty killer is your goalie, so I don't know how far we can carry it, but there were things going right before the shutdown.