Speculation: Patrick Marleau Discussion Thread

[ottomaddox]

just out of curiosity, which players have retired mid-contract and forfeited whatever money was left owing to them?

More that can be counted on two hands.

Both Pleks and Jagr didn't complete their contracts as a recent example.

 

[Pookie]

If I were dubus I would explain to him that your role this season will be playing on the fourth line and sitting in the press box occationally.
Our we can trade you to a team that is looking for veteran leadership

That’s Babcock’s job to use players in the ways he sees fit.

And if Dubas thinks he can control it and ends Marleau’s Ironman streak as a leverage tool... best of luck with that future respect issue.

 

[Martin Skoula]

That’s Babcock’s job to use players in the ways he sees fit.

And if Dubas thinks he can control it and ends Marleau’s Ironman streak as a leverage tool... best of luck with that future respect issue.

The way he sees fit is wrong most of the time and we have to trade his toys away. Lindholm was higher up in the lineup and played more ES TOI than Kapanen and Johnsson opening night.

If we have to take the Marleau toy away so we can play better players in his spot, that what needs to happen. Marleau is never winning a cup if he insists on being in the top 9 and never sitting.

It's not about punishing Marleau, it's about icing the best possible roster. Maybe a healthy and rested Marleau is part of that roster maybe he isn't. Giving him pity minutes is humiliating.

 

[Pookie]

The way he sees fit is wrong most of the time and we have to trade his toys away. Lindholm was higher up in the lineup and played more ES TOI than Kapanen and Johnsson opening night.

If we have to take the Marleau toy away so we can play better players in his spot, that what needs to happen. Marleau is never winning a cup if he insists on being in the top 9 and never sitting.

It's not about punishing Marleau, it's about icing the best possible roster. Maybe a healthy and rested Marleau is part of that roster maybe he isn't. Giving him pity minutes is humiliating.

We signed the contract. We can pay him to sit if we want.... I guess.

It offers no cap relief and sends a horrible message to UFAs about Toronto.

What we can’t do is force a trade.... that M
C contract thing.

 

[ottomaddox]

The way he sees fit is wrong most of the time and we have to trade his toys away. Lindholm was higher up in the lineup and played more ES TOI than Kapanen and Johnsson opening night.

If we have to take the Marleau toy away so we can play better players in his spot, that what needs to happen. Marleau is never winning a cup if he insists on being in the top 9 and never sitting.

It's not about punishing Marleau, it's about icing the best possible roster. Maybe a healthy and rested Marleau is part of that roster maybe he isn't. Giving him pity minutes is humiliating.

TORONTO is not winning a cup with this roster!! It doesn't make any difference whether Marleau sits, plays in the top 9, or the freaking 4th line!!! This small imperfection that is Patrick Marleau means nothing compared to the other problems that Dubas faces. How is Dubas going to replace all these stick checkers!? Will Andersen ever win a playoff series? How is Dubas going to replace Gardiner and Hainsey? What the **** is Dubas going to do about Kadri? Is Conner Brown our future? Is the Goat a legitimate 4th line C on a cup team? Does Dubas need to trade or sign 2 centers next season? How is Dubas and company going to get Nylander going? Who will replace Hyman for the 6 months that he's out of commission?

Patrick Marleau is the biggest problem going forward? Are you kidding me?

 

[PromisedLand]

Said it before.

Marleau + Assets to Cheap cap team.

Cheap team buys out Marleau at 2/3 of the 4.25 owed next season (2.83)

Leafs sign Marleau for the 1/3 value. (1.42)

Marleau gets put through paper transactions but ends up in the same place at the same $ he was originally going to get . (4.25)

Cheap team gets a $2.83 million expense for a 6.25 cap hit to let them show ~$4 mil that they aren't actually spending with added assets like Bracco and draft picks.

Leafs turn a 6.25 cap hit to a 1.416 one for the cost of a couple assets getting us out of our cap crunch.

Win, win, win

Cap circumvention. NHL would not allow this

 

[Woodman19]

Cap circumvention. NHL would not allow this

NHL clears Capitals on trading, signing Brooks Orpik after buyout - Sportsnet.ca

The NHL questioned the Washington Capitals about re-signing Brooks Orpik after trading him to Colorado and cleared the Stanley Cup champions of any wrongdoing.
...
“They put us through a thorough questioning,” MacLellan said Friday. “We did everything above board, and we answered the questions honestly. There was no repercussions, so I think we’re good.”

 

[tmlfan98]

Cap circumvention. NHL would not allow this

Not cap circumvention. Washington just did this last year.

 

[PromisedLand]

NHL clears Capitals on trading, signing Brooks Orpik after buyout - Sportsnet.ca

Not cap circumvention. Washington just did this last year.

wasnt aware of this. Here is hoping Dubas can pull this off

 

[MyBudJT]

I'm not saying trading Marleau won't happen, but of all the wishes people post on here... this is one of the least likely ones to happen IMO.

I fully expact Marleau will be back in the Leaf uniform and his 6.25 mil AAV next season. A different result, and I'll be pleasently surprised.

 

[mouser]

just out of curiosity, which players have retired mid-contract and forfeited whatever money was left owing to them?

Rafalski would probably be the biggest example of leaving money in the table, though he did not have a signing bonus.

 

[mouser]

Said it before.

Marleau + Assets to Cheap cap team.

Cheap team buys out Marleau at 2/3 of the 4.25 owed next season (2.83)

Leafs sign Marleau for the 1/3 value. (1.42)

Marleau gets put through paper transactions but ends up in the same place at the same $ he was originally going to get . (4.25)

Cheap team gets a $2.83 million expense for a 6.25 cap hit to let them show ~$4 mil that they aren't actually spending with added assets like Bracco and draft picks.

Leafs turn a 6.25 cap hit to a 1.416 one for the cost of a couple assets getting us out of our cap crunch.

Win, win, win

The signing bonus is not subject to 2/3rds buyout. So your example becomes:

A) Cheap team buys out Marleau for $3.83m in real dollars. Then pays a player on an ELC $900k to replace the roster spot Marleau would take.

In total the cheap team pays $4.73m in real dollars.

Or:

B) Cheap team doesn’t buyout Marleau and instead pays $4.25m in real dollars to play for the team in 2019-20.


Option B strikes me as better for the cheap team.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Thought I'd share, Gud Pro Jason Spezza played 9 minutes tonight.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The signing bonus is not subject to 2/3rds buyout. So your example becomes:

A) Cheap team buys out Marleau for $3.83m in real dollars. Then pays a player on an ELC $900k to replace the roster spot Marleau would take.

In total the cheap team pays $4.73m in real dollars.

Or:

B) Cheap team doesn’t buyout Marleau and instead pays $4.25m in real dollars to play for the team in 2019-20.


Option B strikes me as better for the cheap team.

I would guess (suspect Mouser already knows this) that its a lot of real money for a cheap team to pay for what is likely a 4th liner at this stage of his career.

 

[Gallagbi]

The signing bonus is not subject to 2/3rds buyout. So your example becomes:

A) Cheap team buys out Marleau for $3.83m in real dollars. Then pays a player on an ELC $900k to replace the roster spot Marleau would take.

In total the cheap team pays $4.73m in real dollars.

Or:

B) Cheap team doesn’t buyout Marleau and instead pays $4.25m in real dollars to play for the team in 2019-20.


Option B strikes me as better for the cheap team.

Best option is for "cheap team" to acquire him on July 2nd (or whenever the bonus is paid out) and pay 1.25m for him

 

[Legion34]

More that can be counted on two hands.

Both Pleks and Jagr didn't complete their contracts as a recent example.

Sobotka just went home too.

 

[Legion34]

NHL clears Capitals on trading, signing Brooks Orpik after buyout - Sportsnet.ca

That one was also different because they got him back.

We could get a team to buy him out and then he signed in SJS for minimum.

Very interested to see how it plays out

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Best option is for "cheap team" to acquire him on July 2nd (or whenever the bonus is paid out) and pay 1.25m for him

Assuming Marleau waives his NMC to move yet again to the "cheap team". A cheap team would also want to pay less than the $1.25 m and have a player (or players) in their system that can play & handle 3rd/4th line duties.

Also, see #244 & click on article.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Trying To Magic Away The Patrick Marleau Contract

We Could Trade Him To Another Team And They Could Buy Him Out

Well, first he has to waive his no-move clause. I’m not sure he would, but people like the idea of Marleau doing a “Brooks Orpik”, where someone else does our dirty work by buying out the contract for us, and then we sign him back for cheap to come contend again. So could we pull that off?

The thinking on this is that a team that doesn’t care about a giant cap hit—think Arizona or Ottawa—could take Marleau’s contract and buy it out for us. The problem is that the teams who don’t care about cap hits—because they never spend to the cap— usually do care about real money. (The lack of real money is why they don’t spend to the cap.) Signing bonuses are not affected by buyouts; they have to be paid anyway and the money cannot be reduced. You will recall that Marleau has a $3,000,000 cheque coming his way on July 1st, 2019.

The first buy-out period, not coincidentally, ends on June 30th. Meaning any team who bought him out would be on the hook for the signing bonus. You would need a team that had both the real dollars to spend and the cap space, and while that’s not impossible (the New York Rangers might be in this position), they would naturally command a hefty price for the privilege. It’s worth noting, also, that even relatively free-spending ownership might not be keen on buying draft picks for several million dollars. That said, of all of these ideas, I think the question with this is less “is it possible” and more “do we want to pay what it would cost?”

 

[HoweHullOrr]

That one was also different because they got him back.

We could get a team to buy him out and then he signed in SJS for minimum.

Very interested to see how it plays out

See #244. ^^^

Click on the article. Its a good read but will throw a lot of cold water on these theories .....

 

[Legion34]

See #244. ^^^

Click on the article. Its a good read but will throw a lot of cold water on these theories .....

The one above? Yes it has been discussed at length.

There are options

1.) ltir for full or part of season
2.) trade and retire
3.) trade on July 2 to Arizona. They trade him at 50’percnt to sanjosen
4.) he agrees to go somehwhere else.
5.) we make a retention trade with SJS for Braun
6.) trade to NYR who do a straight up buyout. That would cost a bit

The rest shouldn’t really.

There are reports that they talked about doing a 3 year deal for Matthews in the 9 range but passed.

They Don’t seem to be worried about this year 2.5 million would go a long way on this cap.

I still think he is gone. But we will see

 

[HoweHullOrr]

^^^ All of the options seem unlikely and/or unrealistic. Maybe read the article a little more closely with a clear, pragmatic mind.

 

[moon111]

Marleau showed to win in the playoffs, you don't need to take risks. He had one giveaway. That's it. He was a +1. Connor Brown had the most success being a +2 and zero giveaways. Winning doesn't always look impressive, it's not always fun. Tavares and Marner failed to make a positive impact. They gambled and in the end, the house won. Ron Hainsey was on for only two even-strength goals against. He was the Leaf's best defenseman in the playoffs. Yes Reilly was on for 9 goals for, but he was also on for 9 goals against. Simply put, winning the game comes down to scoring more then the opposition.

When it comes to some of these older players, how are they 'winning' without scoring? The Leafs lost in the playoffs due to one thing, experience. A player like Gilmour is twice as valuable and twice as talented as John Tavares because he knew how to play to win. One had to sometimes take on a role as a 3rd line checking center and learned from it and another has been nothing but a scoring wonder boy to sell tickets and jerseys.

 

[mouser]

Assuming Marleau waives his NMC to move yet again to the "cheap team". A cheap team would also want to pay less than the $1.25 m and have a player (or players) in their system that can play & handle 3rd/4th line duties.

Also, see #244 & click on article.

Marleau would probably get $2.5m or so on the UFA market this summer for a one year deal. I doubt $1.25m would be an obstacle for any “cheap” team.

The issue is Marleau is probably not interested in playing for a “cheap” team.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Marleau would probably get $2.5m or so on the UFA market this summer for a one year deal. I doubt $1.25m would be an obstacle for any “cheap” team.

The issue is Marleau is probably not interested in playing for a “cheap” team.

Agree with the 2nd paragraph which is the most important point imho.

I'm less sure about the 1st paragraph. As an example, I've seen Ottawa make several trades that net them a million dollars or less of savings. They are the poster child of a cheap team imho, or an owner with big financial constraints.