Confirmed with Link: Pageau - 3 years, $9.3M (3.1 AAV)

[Sensinitis]

I'd love a shiny new Pager jersey too.

Him and Smitty are our 'bae' bottom six forwards.

 

[Tundraman]

Because it's a serious overreaction considering that you were fine with 3.25x5.
So, basically you're thinking that Dorion should be fired because he couldn't get Pageau signed at an AAV for the remaining two years of 3.475.

Which sounds like a reasonable number, but at the same time a lot of contracts are being built around the next lockout we'll probably have in 2020. So maybe one side or the other didn't want to commit beyond then.

At the time it was reported that Pageau had 2 RFA years left. The $3.25M aav over 5 years was based on buying up 3 UFA years. I revised those numbers downwards and posted them here when I checked for myself and saw that he had 3 RFA years remaining.

The problem is that Dorion abdicated his role and placed everything in the player's favor in years, status and dollars when their was no reason to do it. If he wanted another show me contract then go 1 year or 2 or let it go to arbitration and decide then on the one or two year term.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Not Jared Cowen]

Would have liked a bit more term but love the AAV.

 

[Caeldan]

At the time it was reported that Pageau had 2 RFA years left. The $3.25M aav over 5 years was based on buying up 3 UFA years. I revised those numbers downwards and posted them here when I checked for myself and saw that he had 3 RFA years remaining.

The problem is that Dorion abdicated his role and placed everything in the player's favor in years, status and dollars when their was no reason to do it. If he wanted another show me contract then go 1 year or 2 or let it go to arbitration and decide then on the one or two year term.

I don't believe you ever said what your 'revised' numbers were outside of a generalized 'less than 3M AAV for the RFA years'.

So okay, we're off by 200k from that number. I'm pretty sure that 200k is well spent in avoiding arbitration considering how badly it can sour player/team relationships.

However for fun, here's a 5yr deal that might have been a 'reasonable' ask: 2.2, 2.7, 3.2, 3.7, 4.2. So the RFA years are <3M, the overall AAV is still 3.2M, and the UFA years are near 4 (which is comparable for what UFAs are getting this season with his stats). Except that in that deal in years 4 and 5 you'd probably be complaining about how we're overpaying for him because he's a defensive specialist, and in years 1-3 we'd have 100k higher cap hit.

If you look around the league, a lot of deals are being signed in preparation for the lockout in 2020(with Fehr at the helm of the NHLPA, it's not an IF but WHEN). This is likely the case here as well, and why a 3y deal makes sense. If things seem a bit more rosy, we just sign an extension before he ever gets to UFA like we did with Z.Smith.

 

[JungleBeat]

We go to arbitration: "OMG TEAM NO MONEY"
We sign him: "OMG TERRIBLE DEAL DORIONDUMB"

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

At the time it was reported that Pageau had 2 RFA years left. The $3.25M aav over 5 years was based on buying up 3 UFA years. I revised those numbers downwards and posted them here when I checked for myself and saw that he had 3 RFA years remaining.

The problem is that Dorion abdicated his role and placed everything in the player's favor in years, status and dollars when their was no reason to do it. If he wanted another show me contract then go 1 year or 2 or let it go to arbitration and decide then on the one or two year term.

Recognizing the player's value to the team, what is demanded from him on the ice is not abdicating his role. Its ok to say you would have tried to pay him less, fine, but Dorion likes Pageau, feels he is important to the team, and payed him accordingly .. nothing wrong with that... If he nickled and dimed him and could not come to an agreement I would be more not ok with that. Pageau is a key player on this team it's good Dorion recognizes that.

 

[aragorn]

Recognizing the player's value to the team, what is demanded from him on the ice is not abdicating his role. Its ok to say you would have tried to pay him less, fine, but Dorion likes Pageau, feels he is important to the team, and payed him accordingly .. nothing wrong with that... If he nickled and dimed him and could not come to an agreement I would be more not ok with that. Pageau is a key player on this team it's good Dorion recognizes that.

Not to mention how many tickets Pageau sells from across the river. I'll never forget at Pageau's first development camp how many Quebec plates were in the parking lot to see Pageau, he has a huge French following. It was one of the things that was disappointing about this yr's development camp that during the drill days there wasn't hardly anyone there, nearly empty, in fact. The only days that had decent crowds were the scrimmages but in Pageau's camp the place was full every day, it was hard to get a parking spot. He puts people in the stands & sells a lot of jerseys. He is very well liked in Ottawa & even more in Gatineau & that accounts for something.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

We go to arbitration: "OMG TEAM NO MONEY"
We sign him: "OMG TERRIBLE DEAL DORIONDUMB"

One person has said this. ONE.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

What? You seriously think Dorion did any sweating over this contract. For this money it should have gone to arbitration and if they didn't like the dollar award put him up for trade offers and then decide on a 1 or 2 year deal based on what the other team wants. This team lucked out on the way the chips fell in the playoffs and Dorion now thinks they are good enough to do it again so he wastes money that should have been spent elsewhere. If I'm the owner Dorion is gone! Bring back Tim Murray he's not attached to players.

We lucked out is such bs, im so tired of hearing that. We won two rounds in the playoffs and were one goal from beating the champs that no team has been able to beat for 2 years. We didnt luck in to anything.

 

[UnHappyDude]

I'm guessing the standard full NMC is included as well?

 

[Samsquanch]

This is a good deal. Fair $$ for someone Boucher can lean on in all situations. Fan favourite, energy player, heart and soul guy. He's the current version of Mike Fisher.

Locking him up for the next three years is a solid thing. Could be a Sen for life.

He's TOTALLY this generations Mike Fisher. Great comparison, I never made the connection before.

Obviously JG is a smurf by comparison in terms of stature, but he 100% gives off the same vibe that Fish did, and brings that same energy to the rink. These guys are the kind of soldiers that you need to win wars.

JG might have an extra gear offensively left to show us though. But then again, most of us thought that about Fisher until 5 or 6 years into his career, when it became apparent that he was what he was.

 

[Sens Rule]

At the time it was reported that Pageau had 2 RFA years left. The $3.25M aav over 5 years was based on buying up 3 UFA years. I revised those numbers downwards and posted them here when I checked for myself and saw that he had 3 RFA years remaining.

The problem is that Dorion abdicated his role and placed everything in the player's favor in years, status and dollars when their was no reason to do it. If he wanted another show me contract then go 1 year or 2 or let it go to arbitration and decide then on the one or two year term.

If you aren't being tongue in cheek about all of this... I nominate you for biggest overreaction in Sens HF History. If you really believe that Dorion should be fired for signing Pageau to a 3 year $3.1 million deal.

Dude, go and get your blood pressure checked ASAP. You could be about to stroke out.

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's 3 seasons from now, who cares. Everyone gets so wrapped up in this "OMG he's gonna be UFA" stuff. We just locked him in to 3x3, we can all re-evaluate his performance at the end of year 2. Maybe he is expendable by 2020, and if we did 5 years, we'd be stuck with a guy making over 3.5 per for 2 years that we don't want him anymore.

I doesn't matter if he's expendable. Even if guys like White, Bowers and Paul make him expendable, we should have had him signed beyond 3 years so we could trade him for assets instead of letting him walk.

Of course I'd rather we keep Pageau forever and make him a career Senator. This stupid deal makes it much more likely that he's gone in the near future.

There's no benefit going 2 years instead of 3 if that is what you are suggesting. His qualifying offer would be 3.3M, and he would have arbitration rights. His year 3 salary is 3.4M. They'd be setting themselves up to pay him more in year 3 than they would have if they just signed this 3 year deal that took him right to free agency. Going 2 years would be an added hassle for little benefit.

Going to arbitration would be a risk. The Sens might get him for cheaper, but they also might get him for more. Not only that, they can't opt to structure the contract with a cheaper first year to (possibly...assuming they still have a budget...) fit into whatever budget constraints the team might have this upcoming season. The only reason to go to arbitration would be that the Sens feel Pageau will be significantly cheaper via arbitration. Going to arbitration just to keep him an RFA would have been an awful idea for the reasons I listed above about how RFA/qualifying offers/arbitration works.

Whether or not we should have gone 5 years is a legit argument, but it's one that's hard to pin point until we know what he was asking in exchange for his UFA years. Contract numbers are more likely to stagnate than they are to go up, and we aren't a cap team so there is less incentive to lock a player into a cap hit.

I'm suggesting that we should have gave him a bridge deal to have him expire a RFA, or given him a long-term deal between 5-8 years to make him a Senator for the foreseeable future.

Giving him a 3 year deal means that in 2020 when his contract is up he'll have all the leverage to get a big contract from the Sens. He'll likely want a significant raise on his 3.4M salary in 2019/20 on a long-term deal. That translates to a 4-5M long-term contract for a guy who's likely our 3rd/4th line center at that point with Turris, Brown, White and Bowers in the fold.

I don't know if we'll be able to afford that with Karlsson, Turris and Stone re-signing for big money, not to mention albatross contracts like Ryan and Phaneuf still on the books.

I really want to see Pageau be a career Senator, and this deal threatens that possibility. Stupid move buying up 1 UFA year. Should have bought up 4-7.

Why would anyone want to pay their 3C or 4C that much though? If another team is willing to do that, let them.

So we're just going to let Pageau walk in 3 years?

Talk about terrible asset management.

 

[Caeldan]

Why would you overpay for a UFA year now? We'd still need to be giving him mid 4's for those UFA years in actual dollars which just raises the RFA years cap hit, and doesn't change the 'budget' in real dollars at all.
It's not like we can't negotiate in the final season of the RFA contract, exactly like we did (I believe for both of) Hoffman and Smith?

Then if we want to make him a Sen for life, it's a good time to give him the 7-8 year deal to get him through to his mid 30s, rather than having it expire just as he hits the tail end of his prime when he's most expensive to re-sign.

And again. Who knows what happens with the next CBA anyway, and it takes two sides to agree to a contract (and I'm pretty sure if I'm a not-superstar right now, I'm not signing anything beyond the CBA expiry date at the moment since who knows what's going to happen).

But you know, let's talk like he's walking in 3 years and go off the deep end because reasons.

Also, 2 year deal would have us needing to negotiate in the same year we're trying to get Karlsson, and Brassard (or his replacement) re-upped, and the year after we just dealt with Stone, Ceci, Claesson and Turris. Pretty sure this was just staggering 'core' negotiations.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Every contract ends. It takes 2 sides to agree to terms. Is Turris walking at the end of this year? Is Hoffman walking in 3 years? Is Karlsson walking in 2 years? Both Boro and Wideman will walk at the end of this year?
We do not know what transpired in negotiations to come to 3 years.. Maybe the UFA year(s) ask was too much to swallow right now , Dorion prefers to wait and see for any number of reasons.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Oh look the same people over and over don't like something Dorion did, shocking!

Haters gonna hate. Can't wait to see my boy Dorion give Pageau a big hug and a high five!

 

[Caeldan]

Also, just as a bit of information:
The number of 3 year standard contracts (ie not ELCs) signed since Jan 1 this year ... 23.
4 year: 8
5 year: 4
6 year: 5
7 year: 3
8 year: 6

So nearly as many 3y contracts signed this year, as there are 4 through 8y combined. And only 4 of those 4y+ contracts have an AAV <4M.
And from what I remember of the structures of the 5y+ contracts that have been reported, they're all heavily based on signing bonuses (ie lockout/buyout proof).

So it's pretty clear that players/agents are prepping for a work stoppage.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

oh look the same people over and over don't like something dorion did, shocking!

Haters gonna hate. Can't wait to see my boy dorion give pageau a big hug and a high five!

ssdd

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I'm suggesting that we should have gave him a bridge deal to have him expire a RFA, or given him a long-term deal between 5-8 years to make him a Senator for the foreseeable future.

Giving him a 3 year deal means that in 2020 when his contract is up he'll have all the leverage to get a big contract from the Sens. He'll likely want a significant raise on his 3.4M salary in 2019/20 on a long-term deal. That translates to a 4-5M long-term contract for a guy who's likely our 3rd/4th line center at that point with Turris, Brown, White and Bowers in the fold.

I understand you're talking about that, re-read my post. When we're locking him up for the third year at 100k above what would have been his qualifying offer, there's absolutely no point in doing that because of how qualifying offers+arbitration eligibility works. There's nowhere for the salary to go in that third year but up.

If the Sens and Pageau aren't close in July of year 3, they wouldn't be any closer had he been on a two year deal. In that case, he would have just gone to arbitration anyways and gotten more than the 3.4M we have him locked down at now by going 3 years. That would have been bad asset management with the cap being an asset.

 

[Tundraman]

If you aren't being tongue in cheek about all of this... I nominate you for biggest overreaction in Sens HF History. If you really believe that Dorion should be fired for signing Pageau to a 3 year $3.1 million deal.

Dude, go and get your blood pressure checked ASAP. You could be about to stroke out.

Look who's all worked up about an opinion. Relax man don't hurt yourself!

I like Pageau too but Dorion certainly doesn't deserve any credit for negotiating this contract. I'm not going to kiss Dorion's butt for doing what no other GM likely would have done and this isn't the 1st time he's given in to a player/agent and it won't be the last so if I'm the owner I cut my losses.

If others think Dorion did a fantastic job on this contract it's no skin off my back. Like it or not it's everyone's right to agree or disagree but it's out there so don't try to silence a differing opinion from what may be the majority.

 

[Caeldan]

I understand you're talking about that, re-read my post. When we're locking him up for the third year at 100k above what would have been his qualifying offer, there's absolutely no point in doing that because of how qualifying offers+arbitration eligibility works. There's nowhere for the salary to go in that third year but up.

If the Sens and Pageau aren't close in July of year 3, they wouldn't be any closer had he been on a two year deal. In that case, he would have just gone to arbitration anyways and gotten more than the 3.4M we have him locked down at now by going 3 years. That would have been bad asset management with the cap being an asset.

Actually, 3.4M would be below his QO assuming a 2y deal ended with that 3.3M value. It's a 10% increase over your previous year's salary as I recall.
So 3.3M would mean a QO of 3.63M at a minimum.

So this is good asset management compared to going 2y plus 1 via arbitration/negotiation.

 

[Caeldan]

Look who's all worked up about an opinion. Relax man don't hurt yourself!

I like Pageau too but Dorion certainly doesn't deserve any credit for negotiating this contract. I'm not going to kiss Dorion's butt for doing what no other GM likely would have done and this isn't the 1st time he's given in to a player/agent and it won't be the last so if I'm the owner I cut my losses.

If others think Dorion did a fantastic job on this contract it's no skin off my back. Like it or not it's everyone's right to agree or disagree but it's out there so don't try to silence a differing opinion from what may be the majority.

Except you're trying to silence the discussion with 'its just an opinion' and started the whole thing with the statement that Dorion should be fired over this deal.

We're providing actual rationale and reasoning behind why we think it's a reasonable deal (and I don't see anyone overly lauding Dorion for it, just happy that we got Pageau for some time at a decent number).

I still don't see what you are basing this opinion on.

 

[Blotto71]

I like this deal and would be willing to give Dorion a high-five to prove it.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Actually, 3.4M would be below his QO assuming a 2y deal ended with that 3.3M value. It's a 10% increase over your previous year's salary as I recall.
So 3.3M would mean a QO of 3.63M at a minimum.

So this is good asset management compared to going 2y plus 1 via arbitration/negotiation.

It seems like we're both agreeing to my main point which is that signing Pageau to a 2 year deal for the sake of keeping him as an RFA doesn't accomplish anything, but I am pretty sure that increase is only for players on very low money contracts. I don't know the exact numbers off the top of my head, but Pageau wouldn't qualify for an increase in salary if he were to accept his qualifying offer and sign a 1 year deal based on it.