Confirmed with Link: Pageau - 3 years, $9.3M (3.1 AAV)

BondraTime

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Nov 20, 2005
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If you voted for a different term than a 3-yr contract in this thread but are defending the one that was signed, can you explain the change of heart?

I said 3.5 x 6

This a a fine deal. I'm not worried about him hitting UFA, we haven't had a problem resigning UFA's/RFA's at all.

If we find out Pageau wants to test UFA in his 3rd year, we can trade him at the deadline for a very handsome price. He would be the most sought after guy for contenders. We should have White entrenched in a top 9 role by then, still have Turris, and Brown will be hitting the NHL.

If he wants to resign with Ottawa and his play calls for it, we resign him.

It all works out, whichever way it goes, for me.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

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Jun 10, 2011
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If you voted for a different term than a 3-yr contract in this thread but are defending the one that was signed, can you explain the change of heart?

Well, that other thread specifically asked How much would you pay JG Pageau? It doesn't ask what we thought the Sens (or an arbitrator) would give him.

As per that question, I still stand by 2x2.25 would be fair for that type of player. Pageau has a lot of heart and hustle, but there are also plenty of those types of defensive-minded guys in the NHL and minors that can fill that role as well. It's a helluva lot harder to find a 40-goal scorer, than it is to find a defensive specialist that can pot a few goals (if you know what I mean).

Of course, being an Ottawa boy and the sentimental aspect of this kid (playoffs against the habs, his 4-goal game in the playoffs this year), do cloud the picture.
 

Masked

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As per that question, I still stand by 2x2.25 would be fair for that type of player. Pageau has a lot of heart and hustle, but there are also plenty of those types of defensive-minded guys in the NHL and minors that can fill that role as well. It's a helluva lot harder to find a 40-goal scorer, than it is to find a defensive specialist that can pot a few goals (if you know what I mean).

Of course, being an Ottawa boy and the sentimental aspect of this kid (playoffs against the habs, his 4-goal game in the playoffs this year), do cloud the picture.

That's an silly "fair" value you've placed on him. His comparables are all paid much higher than $2.25M per season.

Boone Jenner, probably his best comparable, is making $2.9M this upcoming season and then he's an RFA.

Victor Rask is making $4M long term.

Ryan Strome, who Pageau is clearly better than, is making $2.5M this season before he becomes an RFA.
 

SpezDispenser

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Aug 15, 2007
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I said 3.5 x 6

This a a fine deal. I'm not worried about him hitting UFA, we haven't had a problem resigning UFA's/RFA's at all.

If we find out Pageau wants to test UFA in his 3rd year, we can trade him at the deadline for a very handsome price. He would be the most sought after guy for contenders. We should have White entrenched in a top 9 role by then, still have Turris, and Brown will be hitting the NHL.

If he wants to resign with Ottawa and his play calls for it, we resign him.

It all works out, whichever way it goes, for me.

Yeah, agree with all of this. Wish it was 6 years for more $$ and also agree that when the time comes, we'll hopefully sign him as we always sign our UFAs.

Don't understand why this contract had to land Pageau right on UFAs doorstep though.
 

Micklebot

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Yeah, agree with all of this. Wish it was 6 years for more $$ and also agree that when the time comes, we'll hopefully sign him as we always sign our UFAs.

Don't understand why this contract had to land Pageau right on UFAs doorstep though.

It's already been noted, but players are preparing for a work stoppage, and likely have no intent on signing deals beyond 3 years. So, it was probably 1, 2 or 3 years as our options, and going 1 or 2 now wouldn't have resulted in something that goes beyond that pending work stoppage later, nor would have likely resulted in a cheaper deal(s).

I think the current CBA coming to an end really has a much greater impact on contracts than anyone realizes; we're seeing all the deals that go beyond 3 years include lockout proof bonus structures on those extra years, not something a budget team can really afford.
 

JungleBeat

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Said before the deal was signed that anything above 3M will be an overpayment. Still stand by that but whatever.
 

JungleBeat

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You're wrong

200w.gif
 

2XPRO31

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Given the accomplishments of pageau to this point in his career, the fact he can play in a scoring role, shutdown role, pk, he has a great track record in the post season. In what universe is 3.1 M an overpayment? Maybe you can explain your opinion a bit more [mod]?
 
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Xspyrit

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In the other thread, I wanted Pageau signed at 3.0 x 6 years. OK I was hoping for some kind of a hometown discount but it still should have been cose to that. The money is the same but 3 UFA years are missing. They couldn't get him even at 3.5 x 6 years?

Let's say Pageau is a 4.0 player on his UFA years and 2.5 on his RFA years...

2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 4.0+ 4.0 + 4.0 = 3.25/year (that should be his ~ cap hit for the next 6 years)

Those amounts (2.5 & 4.0) are not fair to JGP?


I agree that I am surprised at how high the contract is, but there's one big hitch about that list. Aside from Hoffman, none of those players were eligible for arbitration. Zib for example, his last deal should be compared with the deal Pageau is coming off of where Pageau made around 1M as that was Pageau's none arbitration qualifying RFA deal.

With Pageau's TOI along with non-PP points being similar to Brassard+Hoffman, and not that far off from Turris, along with hits, quality of competition, strong playoff, etc, I can see why they'd be afraid to go to arbitration rather than sign a deal that gets Pageau at 2.4M for this upcoming season.

This is far from a home run, and I would have predicted a deal much cheaper than this, but I can potentially see why this happened with arbitration looming.

It's a different scenario with Dzingel because realistically, his claim wouldn't be as strong as Pageau's who has a legit statistical case to get paid.

I would have no problem if they bought AT LEAST 1 UFA year or two at that price, but none. It brings him straight to UFA.

3 mil is very fair for an elite 3rd liner. Any top 6 forward making 3 mil is underpaid, or not very good

A veteran elite 3rd liner yeah but Pageau is still young on RFA years. Compare this deal to Smith, almost the same salary. What will be JG's next salary?

Given the accomplishments of pageau to this point in his career, the fact he can play in a scoring role, shutdown role, pk, he has a great track record in the post season. In what universe is 3.1 M an overpayment? Maybe you can explain your opinion a bit more instead of being another troll on the forum?

Yeah, the problem with Pageau's contract is not that he is overpaid. Not sure what Junglebeat is trying to say there (well, I rarely agree with his opinions anyway)

It's just the term that sucks. The Sens should have bought UFA years with a lower AAV as a result. How much will be his next contract now? Over 4.0? Yeah, he will price himself out of Ottawa, great.
 

Masked

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In the other thread, I wanted Pageau signed at 3.0 x 6 years. OK I was hoping for some kind of a hometown discount but it still should have been cose to that. The money is the same but 3 UFA years are missing. They couldn't get him even at 3.5 x 6 years?

Let's say Pageau is a 4.0 player on his UFA years and 2.5 on his RFA years...

2.5 + 2.5 + 2.5 + 4.0+ 4.0 + 4.0 = 3.25/year (that should be his ~ cap hit for the next 6 years)

Those amounts (2.5 & 4.0) are not fair to JGP?


No, because Pageau is worth more than $2.5M for next season. He got fair market for his contract. If the Sens wanted 6 years his average salary would be in the $4M range.
 

Real Smart Sens Fan

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Jun 14, 2014
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Said before the deal was signed that anything above 3M will be an overpayment. Still stand by that but whatever.

Eller got 4yr x 3.5m
Killorn got 7 x 4.45
Sutter got 5 x 4.375
Couturier got 6 x 4.33
Kruger got 3 x 3.08
Eakin got 4 x 3.85
Shaw got 6 x 3.9
Cizikas got 5 x 3.35
Soderberg got 5 x 4.75
Lehtera got 3 x 4.7
Backlund got 3 x 3.575m
Berglund just got 5 x 3.85
Helm got 3 x 3.85
Coyle got 5 x 3.2 (before his breakout)
Schenn got 4 x 5.125

There's one contract that really stands out - Jarnkrok's. That was a clear outlier and one of the best, strangest contracts out there.

Yeah, you're wrong.
 

JungleBeat

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Eller got 4yr x 3.5m
Sutter got 5 x 4.375
Couturier got 6 x 4.33
Kruger got 3 x 3.08
Eakin got 4 x 3.85
Backlund got 3 x 3.575m
Berglund just got 5 x 3.85
Helm got 3 x 3.85

Let's cut down this random list you grabbed from cap friendly. Just looking at that list I see some pretty bad comparables to Pageau other than a select few.
 

danielpalfredsson

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I would have no problem if they bought AT LEAST 1 UFA year or two at that price, but none. It brings him straight to UFA.

It's fine if you think his RFA years should have been cheaper, and initially I was also a bit surprised he was able to bargain for as high of an RFA salary as he got. So I wouldn't exactly disagree.

But as I've posted before in this thread, straight to UFA isn't a legit gripe. It doesn't matter at all when arbitration, qualifying offers setting a minimum salary, and the ability to extend players a year earlier are a thing. It especially doesn't matter when the Sens aren't a cap team either so they don't benefit from using his RFA years to lower his overall cap hit on a long term deal.

A cap team probably would have been more motivated to buy up those UFA years at a high price, because these 3 years at 3.1M would have dramatically lowered his AAV on a 5-7 year deal. Sens aren't a cap team for now.
 

Real Smart Sens Fan

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Let's cut down this random list you grabbed from cap friendly. Just looking at that list I see some pretty bad comparables to Pageau other than a select few.

I used an extremely wide basis of comparison to show that there is only one player in the league who is even semi comparable who is currently on a much cheaper contract than Pageau got. UFAs, RFAs, more offensive, less offensive, top 6ers, role players... they're all there. None got paid less than Pageau.

The way you narrowed that list down, on the other hand, makes no categorical sense...
 

Micklebot

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Let's cut down this random list you grabbed from cap friendly. Just looking at that list I see some pretty bad comparables to Pageau other than a select few.

Lets approach this from another angle; can you provide some examples of comparables that support your claim that Pageau is overpaid?

Anyways, I think anyone hoping for a deal longer than 3 years was bound to be disappointed; with a potential lockout looming, not many contracts are passing that length, and those that do are not the kind a budget team would be interested in (lockout proof signing bonuses that need to be paid even if their are no games played)
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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Calling 0.1M more than 3.0 an overpayment shows how truly ridiculous of a comment this is. I guess you're learning from Eugene.

Don't think this is a problem, he set 3 mil as the fair cost to sign Pageau, and he's not overly disappointed with overpayment because it's only by .1 mil. Why should he adjust what he thinks is fair just because we came very close?
 

JungleBeat

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Lets approach this from another angle; can you provide some examples of comparables that support your claim that Pageau is overpaid?
Here are some that had around the same production to Pageau or out produced him.

Kevin Hayes 2 Years - 2.6M
Radek Faska 3 Years - 2.2M
Boone Jenner 2 Years - 2.9M
Calle Jarkrok 6 Years - 2.0M
Brock Nelson 3 Years - 2.5M

Obviously not overpaid by much but I consider it overpaid. It doesn't really matter but people on here love making things into a problem.
 

Deku

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Here are some that had around the same production to Pageau or out produced him.

Kevin Hayes 2 Years - 2.6M
Radek Faska 3 Years - 2.2M
Boone Jenner 2 Years - 2.9M
Calle Jarkrok 6 Years - 2.0M
Brock Nelson 3 Years - 2.5M

Obviously not overpaid by much but I consider it overpaid. It doesn't really matter but people on here love making things into a problem.

Are any of them nearly as good of shutdown centers as Pageau?
Jenner and Nelson are wingers anyway
 

Real Smart Sens Fan

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Here are some that had around the same production to Pageau or out produced him.

Kevin Hayes 2 Years - 2.6M
Radek Faska 3 Years - 2.2M
Boone Jenner 2 Years - 2.9M
Calle Jarkrok 6 Years - 2.0M
Brock Nelson 3 Years - 2.5M

Obviously not overpaid by much but I consider it overpaid. It doesn't really matter but people on here love making things into a problem.

While I respect the fact that, five posts into this thread, you've finally provided some meat, it should be noted that those are all 2nd contracts and the vast majority of those guys are offensive players (only exception really being Jarnkrok).
 

JungleBeat

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While I respect the fact that, five posts into this thread, you've finally provided some meat.

There's something called constructive dialogue. Micklebot had an issue with my opinion so he challenged my opinion. It's just that - go after the opinion and not the poster dude and we'll have much better discussions.

Edit: Not talking about this exchange in particular but HF in general.
 

Real Smart Sens Fan

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There's something called constructive dialogue. Micklebot had an issue with my opinion so he challenged my opinion. It's just that - go after the opinion and not the poster dude and we'll have much better discussions.

Edit: Not talking about this exchange in particular but HF in general.

I know what you mean, I also think that when you post an opinion that seems counter-intuitive or controversial you are responsible for backing that up. Otherwise, it's just kind of ****-posting, be it intentional or not.

At least now I know that you don't like the Pageau deal because you think he is comparable to those 5 players (possibly more so than he is to the players I listed). I don't think you've made a good point and I'm very willing to discuss why, but it's impossible to do that if you make no argument to support your opinion.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
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No, because Pageau is worth more than $2.5M for next season. He got fair market for his contract. If the Sens wanted 6 years his average salary would be in the $4M range.

I love Pageau but I don't think he's worth an AAV of 4.0 if there is 3 RFA years and 3 UFA years. As an UFA, what does that make him? A 5 M$ player?

It's fine if you think his RFA years should have been cheaper, and initially I was also a bit surprised he was able to bargain for as high of an RFA salary as he got. So I wouldn't exactly disagree.

But as I've posted before in this thread, straight to UFA isn't a legit gripe. It doesn't matter at all when arbitration, qualifying offers setting a minimum salary, and the ability to extend players a year earlier are a thing. It especially doesn't matter when the Sens aren't a cap team either so they don't benefit from using his RFA years to lower his overall cap hit on a long term deal.

A cap team probably would have been more motivated to buy up those UFA years at a high price, because these 3 years at 3.1M would have dramatically lowered his AAV on a 5-7 year deal. Sens aren't a cap team for now.

But I plan them to be, starting next year. They are at 67.39 right now, under 8 millions of cap space. Next season, Mark Stone and Kyle Turris need new deals and won't be paid 3.5 anymore. We can at least expect a 2.5 raise for both. Cody Ceci will also be RFA, getting a raise from his 2.8 deal. There goes all your cap space (if it stays at 75.0)

Claesson will also need a new deal, which could be more pricey than we expect right now. "Luckily" Hammond and Anderson will be off the books. Is Condon going to be the N.1 guy? If yes, then he's cheap but if he is a N.2, ouch at 2.4... How much will we have for a N.1 goalie?

The year after, Karlsson needs a hefty raise and thankfully Burrows, Thompson and Pyatt deals expire so they can maybe save enough there but it's not looking pretty right now. Brassard expires too. How do you replace him? UFA route? White? Re-sign him?

I liked the Hoffman and Smith deals, but Condon, Pageau, Thompson and Burrows deals were not too great. I wouldn't have complained but I am worried since the Condon deal, and we all know I am not a whiner for the sake of whining. I have always been against that
 

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