Prospect Info: Owen Tippett (2017, #10 overall), Saginaw Spirit (OHL), signed ELC on 7/19/17

[Jakeybonz]

They specifically told him to work on his overall 200 foot game, he has in every area improved without losing the goal scoring. If anything he is more likely to work out now.

WITH losing the goal scoring* that's what u call it when someone is scoring less goals per game (his recent hat trick finally tying him with his draft year pace but I expect that to drop in the next few games). and from what I saw and heard there was very little defensive improvement. so yea not seeing that. we got him to score goals and I didn't like the pick because we don't need help in 3 yrs we need it now and if he's going to be traded, then might as well draft a more tradable player lile suzuki or vilardi. but regardless of not liking the pick, I still hoped he'd rattle off a ton of goals being a full year older and all, but he hasn't. so I'm just not that impressed by him. u can love him all u want. I don't. and I'd really like to end up wrong. but I wont.

 

[MintyFresh88]

WITH losing the goal scoring* that's what u call it when someone is scoring less goals per game. and from what I saw and heard there was very little defensive improvement. so yea not seeing that.

He was a minus player last season and is currently one of only 4 regular forwards on the team in the plus column. Granted, I've only seen him play a few times this season, but that appears to be an improvement. And yes, I know +/- isn't the be all end all, but just an observation, nonetheless.

Also, after the hat-trick, he's scoring at the same pace as last year and points wise is ahead of last year's clip. He could easily finish season ahead of pace in goals and points, yet we're talking like he's a bust. I honestly don't care about 200 ft game or defense. The guy can move, has good hands and can bury the puck. If he turns out to be a Phil Kessel type player, I honestly don't care about his defensive game, especially if he plays with a guy like Barkov or Trocheck.

 

[Jakeybonz]

He was a minus player last season and is currently one of only 4 regular forwards on the team in the plus column. Granted, I've only seen him play a few times this season, but that appears to be an improvement. And yes, I know +/- isn't the be all end all, but just an observation, nonetheless.

Also, after the hat-trick, he's scoring at the same pace as last year and points wise is ahead of last year's clip. He could easily finish season ahead of pace in goals and points, yet we're talking like he's a bust. I honestly don't care about 200 ft game or defense. The guy can move, has good hands and can bury the puck. If he turns out to be a Phil Kessel type player, I honestly don't care about his defensive game, especially if he plays with a guy like Barkov or Trocheck.

lol I had just edited in that hat trick into my comment but u beat me to it still though what are u talking about with the +-. he was a plus 24 last yr and is only a +3 this year. so if ur using that metric he's hideously regressed. and matching last years goal pace is bad. ur supposed to blow away ur point totals in a D+1 year. he is doing that but not goals-wise. and like u said that's his reason for existing.

 

[MintyFresh88]

lol I had just edited in that hat trick into my comment but u beat me to it still though what are u talking about with the +-. he was a plus 24 last yr and is only a +3 or 4 this year. so if ur using that metric he's hideously regressed.

You are right, I was looking at his -6 with the Panthers and thought it was last year with Steelheads. Anyway, if you look at the +/- of the rest of his team last year, there were a lot of guys +20 and up, whereas this season most are minus players, so I think it's more of a team effect than pin pointing him specifically for a regression (whole team has regressed). Again, I know I brought it up, but I don't put too much stock into that anyway (especially since he's not touted as a defensive specialist).

 

[batting1k]

It's not even worth arguing. He's so set on the fact that Tippett is a bust, you're not going to change his mind. The guy could have 5 goals in every one of his remaining games and it wouldn't be enough.

 

[Jakeybonz]

It's not even worth arguing. He's so set on the fact that Tippett is a bust, you're not going to change his mind. The guy could have 5 goals in every one of his remaining games and it wouldn't be enough.

nope. that'd do it just fine for me. but again he's not a bust. u have to be worth ur draft position to be a bust. he's just a typical bottom 10 first rounder.

 

[StrangeVision]

What are you basing your opinions on?

 

[Jakeybonz]

What are you basing your opinions on?

hockey

 

[StrangeVision]

hockey

Okay, but which parts? Which player parallels are you using? Are you basing your views on data? Can you point out a correlation with draft position, d+1 scoring, and NHL scoring totals? Is there a study you can point to? Do you have some sort of chart that shows d+1 scoring levels?

Basically, are you using feelings or facts?

 

[Jakeybonz]

Okay, but which parts? Which player parallels are you using? Are you basing your views on data? Can you point out a correlation with draft position, d+1 scoring, and NHL scoring totals? Is there a study you can point to? Do you have some sort of chart that shows d+1 scoring levels?

Basically, are you using feelings or facts?

do u really think that expecting a player to improve upon his performance from 17-18 years old isn't common sense? I mean sure I could show u all the billion examples but do u really need me to?

 

[FlaPanthers11]

do u really think that expecting a player to improve upon his performance from 17-18 years old isn't common sense? I mean sure I could show u all the billion examples but do u really need me to?

Jonathan Huberdeau junior PPG:
D-1: 0.57
D: 1.57
D+1: 1.94 (37 games)
D+2: 1.50 (30 games)

Not linear.

 

[StrangeVision]

do u really think that expecting a player to improve upon his performance from 17-18 years old isn't common sense? I mean sure I could show u all the billion examples but do u really need me to?

Sure, I'd like to see your examples. I don't need a billion, though.

 

[batting1k]

Jonathan Huberdeau junior PPG:
D-1: 0.57
D: 1.57
D+1: 1.94 (37 games)
D+2: 1.50 (30 games)

Not linear.

Ryan Getzlaf junior PPG:
D-1: 0.28
D: 0.97
D+1: 1.53
D+2: 1.05

 

[RogerRoger]

I think he is more concern with goal per game than points per game for Tippett.
So I did a bunch of players taken high in drafts to see how they did. In terms of Goals/Game, I don't think I've seen enough to figure out a definite pattern, some improve and bust, some decrease and are awesome. Points/Game seems like a better and less random indicator.
Goals/game ---Points/games

Ehlers: Didn't bust
D: 0.77---1.65
D+1: 0.73---1.98

Virtanen: Busted
D-1: 0.26---0.55
D: 0.63---1.00
D+1: 0.42---1.04

Dal Colle: Busting
D-1: 0.24---0.76
D: 0.58---1.42
D+1: 0.75---1.66
D+2: 0.58---1.33

Ryan Strom: Busted
D-1: 0.13---0.44
D: 0.51---1.63
D+1: 0.65---1.48
D+2: 0.64---1.77

Draisaitl: Didn't bust
D-1: 0.33---0.90
D: 0.59---1.64
D+1: 0.59---1.66

Scheifele: Didn't bust
D-1: 0.33---1.14
D: 0.50---1.34
D+1: 0.87---1.76

Horvat: Didn't bust
D-1: 0.17---0.46
D: 0.49---0.91
D+1: 0.55---1.37

Drouin: Below expectation
D-1: 0.21---0.88
D: 0.84---2.14
D+1: 0.63---2.35

Crouse: Busting
D-1: 0.24---0.43
D: 0.52---0.91
D+1: 0.47---1.27

Tippett: Who knows
D-1: 0.31---0.44
D: 0.73---1.25
D+1: 0.73---1.49

 

[Chaos2k7]

WITH losing the goal scoring* that's what u call it when someone is scoring less goals per game (his recent hat trick finally tying him with his draft year pace but I expect that to drop in the next few games). and from what I saw and heard there was very little defensive improvement. so yea not seeing that. we got him to score goals and I didn't like the pick because we don't need help in 3 yrs we need it now and if he's going to be traded, then might as well draft a more tradable player lile suzuki or vilardi. but regardless of not liking the pick, I still hoped he'd rattle off a ton of goals being a full year older and all, but he hasn't. so I'm just not that impressed by him. u can love him all u want. I don't. and I'd really like to end up wrong. but I wont.

How is he losing the goal scoring while being at the same pace that made him a top 10 pick?

 

[pb1300]

Sure, I'd like to see your examples. I don't need a billion, though.

He doesn’t have any, because he just reads a stat line.

 

[GrumpyKelly]

I think he is more concern with goal per game than points per game for Tippett.
So I did a bunch of players taken high in drafts to see how they did. In terms of Goals/Game, I don't think I've seen enough to figure out a definite pattern, some improve and bust, some decrease and are awesome. Points/Game seems like a better and less random indicator.
Goals/game ---Points/games

Ehlers: Didn't bust
D: 0.77---1.65
D+1: 0.73---1.98

Virtanen: Busted
D-1: 0.26---0.55
D: 0.63---1.00
D+1: 0.42---1.04

Dal Colle: Busting
D-1: 0.24---0.76
D: 0.58---1.42
D+1: 0.75---1.66
D+2: 0.58---1.33

Ryan Strom: Busted
D-1: 0.13---0.44
D: 0.51---1.63
D+1: 0.65---1.48
D+2: 0.64---1.77

Draisaitl: Didn't bust
D-1: 0.33---0.90
D: 0.59---1.64
D+1: 0.59---1.66

Scheifele: Didn't bust
D-1: 0.33---1.14
D: 0.50---1.34
D+1: 0.87---1.76

Horvat: Didn't bust
D-1: 0.17---0.46
D: 0.49---0.91
D+1: 0.55---1.37

Drouin: Below expectation
D-1: 0.21---0.88
D: 0.84---2.14
D+1: 0.63---2.35

Crouse: Busting
D-1: 0.24---0.43
D: 0.52---0.91
D+1: 0.47---1.27

Tippett: Who knows
D-1: 0.31---0.44
D: 0.73---1.25
D+1: 0.73---1.49

I don't think it's worth looking too deeply into these numbers unless they are exceptionally bad or good, like in the case of Hepo.

To get any statistically meaningful conclusions you would have to go though hundreds of different cases. And even then you probably would just find some fairly general, "rule of thumb" type of categories of who bust and who don't. I mean, that info would be worth a lot if the a prospect development trajectory could be explained purely statistically and clearly teams don't know if you look at trades that happen.

 

[FrolikFan67]

is it possible someone can get a gif of his 2nd goal from his hat trick yesterday? it was a beauty.

 

[batting1k]

To get any statistically meaningful conclusions you would have to go though hundreds of different cases. .

Side note...this is actually part of what the computer boys model does.

 

[batting1k]

is it possible someone can get a gif of his 2nd goal from his hat trick yesterday? it was a beauty.

Shameless @fla_prospects plug

 

[KW]

Shameless @fla_prospects plug

That's cool but what's defense doing there? They look worse than beer league.

 

[Chaos2k7]

That's cool but what's defense doing there? They look worse than beer league.

Are you familiar with the "Rowe Zone"?

 

[RogerRoger]

I don't think it's worth looking too deeply into these numbers unless they are exceptionally bad or good, like in the case of Hepo.

To get any statistically meaningful conclusions you would have to go though hundreds of different cases. And even then you probably would just find some fairly general, "rule of thumb" type of categories of who bust and who don't. I mean, that info would be worth a lot if the a prospect development trajectory could be explained purely statistically and clearly teams don't know if you look at trades that happen.

Canucksarmy made a statistic that pretty much look at that. It's call pGPS, it compares the prospect with players that score a similar amount/rate and are about the same size. Here is their page on Tippett. Nation Network 2017 Prospect Profile: #13 – Owen Tippett

It also gives a chance of success and an expected offensive output. It's a nice read.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Canucksarmy made a statistic that pretty much look at that. It's call pGPS, it compares the prospect with players that score a similar amount/rate and are about the same size. Here is their page on Tippett. Nation Network 2017 Prospect Profile: #13 – Owen Tippett

It also gives a chance of success and an expected offensive output. It's a nice read.

So it says 50pts projected....

I can live with 40 goals and 10 assists.

 

[Jakeybonz]

How is he losing the goal scoring while being at the same pace that made him a top 10 pick?

he only just caught up to the pace he had as a 17 yr old and were favorably looking at him right after a hat trick. in a few games there should be some regression. that aside, there's absolutely nothing good about tying ur goal scoring rate from your draft year. we can take all the examples in the world where some busted and some didn't but it doesn't change the fact that its not a good thing that he hasn't blown away his previous goal pace. would anyone here be unhappy if tippett had more than a goal per game like debrincat did? everyone would be saying he's the goal scorer we've long been after and batting would be stat watching him all year and posting more than he already does. u think preds fans are not happy that tolvanen wreaks havoc on the khl? they're loving it. its only logical that a player scoring a ton no matter what league they're in should be looked at as a better situation than not scoring a ton. I can't believe this needs to be explained. and even if tippett had improved his goal rate I feel I can't stress this enough, we need help now. not in 3-4 yrs. his best drunken projections from his gf would only have him as a 30 goal scorer in 3-4 yrs. that barely helps our core. so if were going to trade him anyway, we should have drafted a better overall player who would have given us a better return and better players were available. not in hindsight, in plain sight at the time. that's all I'm saying. not saying tippett is the worst and I hate gingers, so relax. this is a sober reading of our situation and his. that 50 point projection of him in the nhl sounds close to right even though they didn't have this seasons #s to work with. and 50 points is likely around 22G 28A. that's not what were looking for. we drafted him to get a 35 goal scorer. him working on his defense is irrelevant at this point. if he's not going to score 35 goals by 2 yrs from now, he's not what we need right now and shouldve been traded for a proven scorer or a legit D man with 2+ yrs under contract in a package deal by the deadline to address the playoff push and the next couple yrs. this is assuming the owners will actually spend the cap going fwd. but I suspect keeping all of our prospects means they wont be. and i dont believe for a second that we couldnt have made a trade without including borgstrom. we have plenty of chips but did nothing. just like we did nothing last offseason (more harm than good) and and thus have no reason to believe anything will be done this upcoming one. so more of the same for us I guess.