Out of town scoreboard VI: Playoff discussion - another Caps collapse

[Desert Devil]

Here's what I see so far from Rinne for the first two games.

Game one

Goal one: Malkin slapper from top of the circle on a 5 on 3. Play was moving from Rinne's right to his left. There was traffic in front of him until Malkin took the shot. He saw it mostly and got a piece of it. I would say he should have had that, but it wasn't an extremely weak goal.

Goal two: Sheary back door goal. Puck goes from low to high to down low back door in under two seconds. Nothing he could do on that goal.

Goal three: Bonino goal off of Eckholm. Rinne makes the save and is directing the puck out of harms way. It hits his own dman and deflects in. I cannot fault him for that. Just bad luck.

Goal four: Guentzel goes top shelf. That was stoppable but still a great shot. I can't say that's weak but was certainly no softy. He goes down too early I suppose.

------------------------

Game two

Goal one: Guentzel squeaker. I guess you can call that a bad goal. But he was in perfect position with pretty much no net open. The puck squeaked through on the rebound.He played the numbers on it. I would say it was more of a lucky goal than a soft one. But yeah he probably should have it.

Goal two: Guentzel rebound goal. Bad rebound. He should have had it.

Goal three: Wilson goal deflected in by Fiddler. Lucky goal deflected in on Rinne. I can't fault him for that one.

Goal four: Malkin snipe. Rinne too far back. He should probably have had it but it was still a two on one.

Then he was pulled. I can't really say he's played THAT poorly. Yes, he can definitely be better but I can't say he is the sole reason they are behind in this series.

I've played goalie my entire life so this is just my point of view on the goals. I'm probably a little biased but this is the way I see it.

 

[Devils Dominion]

I'd like to see Castron find us a Guenztal type forward in the 3rd or 4th round in a few weeks.

A kid that a lot of scouts thought was not big nor fast enough.
But, he's got excellent hockey sense and scorer's hands.

There are players such as Jake out there in this draft.

 

[MartyOwns]

Lundqvist was far superior to Rinne in the 15-16 season.

2015-16 season:
Rinne
Games: 66
Wins: 34
SV%: .908
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 2

Lundqvist:
Games: 65
Wins: 35
SV%: .92
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 4

...that is 'far superior' to you? we're talking about a save percentage difference of .012, 1 more win, and 2 more shutouts. as i've said from the beginning, lundqvist was better than rinne at the end of the 2016 season. but it wasn't that far off, for the millionth time.

unless we're talking about assists. lunqvist blew rinne away in assists in 15-16...4 to 2. a 100% difference there...man, talk about far superior.

Saying they weren't far off that season is almost like saying Schneider in 15-16 wasn't far off from Schneider in 16-17.

2015-16 season:
Schneider
Games: 58
Wins: 27
SV%: .924
GAA: 2.15
Shutouts: 4

2016-17 season:
Schneider
Games: 60
Wins: 20
SV%: .908
GAA: 2.82
Shutouts: 2

Here, we're talking about a decrease of:

7 wins
.016 SV%
.67 GAA
2 shutouts

sooo...yeah not really the same at all.

 

[Bleedred]

2015-16 season:
Rinne
Games: 66
Wins: 34
SV%: .908
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 2

Lundqvist:
Games: 65
Wins: 35
SV%: .92
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 4

...that is 'far superior' to you? we're talking about a save percentage difference of .012, 1 more win, and 2 more shutouts. as i've said from the beginning, lundqvist was better than rinne at the end of the 2016 season. but it wasn't that far off, for the millionth time.

unless we're talking about assists. lunqvist blew rinne away in assists in 15-16...4 to 2. a 100% difference there...man, talk about far superior.



2015-16 season:
Schneider
Games: 58
Wins: 27
SV%: .924
GAA: 2.15
Shutouts: 4

2016-17 season:
Schneider
Games: 60
Wins: 20
SV%: .908
GAA: 2.82
Shutouts: 2

Here, we're talking about a decrease of:

7 wins
.016 SV%
.67 GAA
2 shutouts

sooo...yeah not really the same at all.

The difference between a .920 save percentage and a .908 save percentage is a pretty DRASTIC one when it comes to starting goalies. A .920 save percentage vs a .908 save percentage is the difference between a good starting goalie and a mediocre starting goalie. And that why last year, I argued HEAVILY that Lundqvist was FAR SUPERIOR to Rinne. You seem to be more into using wins and GAA also, which are much more team dependent than goalie dependent.

It was also almost the difference in Rinne's play last year and Rinne's play this year, as well as Lundqvist's play this year and last year. So that would mean that Rinne's play didn't increase significantly this year from last year, nor did Lundqvist's level of play significantly drop off from this year to last year, if I'm to see your side of things.

It seems you're also leaning heavily on WINS and GAA in your argument as well. Good to know. It seems to be this is the biggest difference in yours and my side of things in this argument. GAA is also the worst stat out of any, as Lundqvist had a higher GAA last year because he faced more shots than Rinne did. Rinne's team allowed the second fewest shots on goal last year, if I recall correctly.

A goalie's GAA could drastically change from team to team, even if their save percentage doesn't change at all.

 

[MartyOwns]

The difference between a .920 save percentage and a .908 save percentage is a pretty DRASTIC one when it comes to starting goalies. A .920 save percentage vs a .908 save percentage is the difference between a good starting goalie and a mediocre starting goalie. And that why last year, I argued HEAVILY that Lundqvist was FAR SUPERIOR to Rinne. You seem to be more into using wins and GAA also, which are much more team dependent than goalie dependent.

It seems you're also leaning heavily on WINS and GAA in your argument as well. Good to know. It seems to be this is the biggest difference in yours and my side of things in this argument. GAA is also the worst stat out of any, as Lundqvist had a higher GAA last year because he faced more shots than Rinne did. Rinne's team allowed the second fewest shots on goal last year, if I recall correctly.

A goalie's GAA could drastically change from team to team, even if their save percentage doesn't change at all.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to say, honestly. lundqvist had one MORE win than rinne in 2015-2016. unless youre talking about schneider’s YOY stats, where the win difference was 7? regardless, I guess it’s convenient that wins and GAA (I saw you edited your original post, which just talked about wins) are irrelevant when discussing the differences between the 2 goalies…but at the same time, a .012 difference in SV% is DRASTIC difference.

im not a huge math guy, so- with a .012 difference, how many goals does that translate to over 100 or 1000 shots?

in regards to the number of shots faced, it’s an interesting factor but I don’t put much stock in it. if I did, I would be assuming that if rinne faced more shots, he would have let them in at the same or higher rate, which wouldn’t necessarily be true at all. its hypothetical. same way I don’t say ‘nashville had a much worse roster than the rangers, so of course lundqvist’s stats were better!’. those types of things are subjective and stupid.

It was also almost the difference in Rinne's play last year and Rinne's play this year, as well as Lundqvist's play this year and last year. So that would mean that Rinne's play didn't increase significantly this year from last year, nor did Lundqvist's level of play significantly drop off from this year to last year, if I'm to see your side of things.

2015-16 season:
Rinne
Games: 66
Wins: 34
SV%: .908
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 4 (incorrectly stated 2 prior, so same as lundqvist #DRASTIC)

2016-2017 season
Rinne
Games: 61
Wins: 31
SV%: .918
GAA: 2.42
Shutouts: 3

I would agree- overall, not a big difference between the 2.

2015-16 season:
Lundqvist:
Games: 65
Wins: 35
SV%: .92
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 4

2016-17 season:
Lundqvist:
Games: 57
Wins: 31
SV%: .91
GAA: 2.74
Shutouts: 2

relative to games played, not really a huge difference here either. although a .26 increase in GAA is not very good and that puts some separation in there. but I guess I may have missed your point, since my position is that they weren’t that far off from each other.

now, if you want to talk about DRASTIC differences between the 2 in 2015-2016, let’s talk about playoffs. SV%, GAA, wins, you name it. the 2017 playoffs were the same story- rinne better in every category…although outside of GAA the difference was pretty marginal. it may not quite fit your narrative, but i thought i'd throw it out there anyway

 

[Bleedred]

I don’t even know what you’re trying to say, honestly. lundqvist had one MORE win than rinne in 2015-2016. unless youre talking about schneider’s YOY stats, where the win difference was 7? regardless, I guess it’s convenient that wins and GAA (I saw you edited your original post, which just talked about wins) are irrelevant when discussing the differences between the 2 goalies…but at the same time, a .012 difference in SV% is DRASTIC difference.

im not a huge math guy, so- with a .012 difference, how many goals does that translate to over 100 or 1000 shots?

in regards to the number of shots faced, it’s an interesting factor but I don’t put much stock in it. if I did, I would be assuming that if rinne faced more shots, he would have let them in at the same or higher rate, which wouldn’t necessarily be true at all. its hypothetical. same way I don’t say ‘nashville had a much worse roster than the rangers, so of course lundqvist’s stats were better!’. those types of things are subjective and stupid.



2015-16 season:
Rinne
Games: 66
Wins: 34
SV%: .908
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 4 (incorrectly stated 2 prior, so same as lundqvist #DRASTIC)

2016-2017 season
Rinne
Games: 61
Wins: 31
SV%: .918
GAA: 2.42
Shutouts: 3

I would agree- overall, not a big difference between the 2.

2015-16 season:
Lundqvist:
Games: 65
Wins: 35
SV%: .92
GAA: 2.48
Shutouts: 4

2016-17 season:
Lundqvist:
Games: 57
Wins: 31
SV%: .91
GAA: 2.74
Shutouts: 2

relative to games played, not really a huge difference here either. although a .26 increase in GAA is not very good and that puts some separation in there. but I guess I may have missed your point, since my position is that they weren’t that far off from each other.

now, if you want to talk about DRASTIC differences between the 2 in 2015-2016, let’s talk about playoffs. SV%, GAA, wins, you name it. the 2017 playoffs were the same story- rinne better in every category…although outside of GAA the difference was pretty marginal. it may not quite fit your narrative, but i thought i'd throw it out there anyway

Rinne was not good in the 2016 playoffs at all, a .906 save percentage? Lundqvist was just beyond terrible that series, that's why Rinne looks to be much better.

Rinne this year was much more improved than last year, while Lundqvist took a more than significant drop off in play this season from last year.

a 12 point difference in save percentage is 12 more goals allowed per 1000 shots.

Someone else explained this to you last year when we had this argument and you disregarded it and only continued to bust my balls. It's not a narrative, Rinne was one of the worst starters in the league in the 2015-2016 season. His save percentage backs that up. Now if you don't put much into his save percentage, I guess I can understand why you are arguing this.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=121521359&postcount=187

 

[MartyOwns]

Rinne was not good in the 2016 playoffs at all, a .906 save percentage? Lundqvist was just beyond terrible that series, that's why Rinne looks to be much better.

Rinne this year was much more improved than last year, while Lundqvist took a more than significant drop off in play this season from last year.

a 12 point difference in save percentage is 12 more goals allowed per 1000 shots.

Someone else explained this to you last year when we had this argument and you disregarded it and only continued to bust my balls. It's not a narrative, Rinne was one of the worst starters in the league in the 2015-2016 season. His save percentage backs that up. Now if you don't put much into his save percentage, I guess I can understand why you are arguing this.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=121521359&postcount=187

Rinne was not good in the 2016 playoffs at all, a .906 save percentage? Lundqvist was just beyond terrible that series, that's why Rinne looks to be much better.

Rinne this year was much more improved than last year, while Lundqvist took a more than significant drop off in play this season from last year.

oh im not saying rinne was good in the 2016 playoffs. but he was miles ahead of lundqvist, that was the point. i think you believe my position is rinne is a phenomenal, elite goalie- thats not the case. he's decent. lundqvist, at 34/35, is also decent.

a 12 point difference in save percentage is 12 more goals allowed per 1000 shots.

Someone else explained this to you last year when we had this argument and you disregarded it and only continued to bust my balls. It's not a narrative, Rinne was one of the worst starters in the league in the 2015-2016 season. His save percentage backs that up. Now if you don't put much into his save percentage, I guess I can understand why you are arguing this.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=121521359&postcount=187

its not that i don't put that much into SV%- i weight it pretty equally with wins, GAA, shutouts. so you’re looking at his SV% and declaring him one of the worst starters in the league, whereas I’m looking at the whole picture and seeing a decent goalie that isn’t that much worse than lundqvist. I think that’s as close to ‘agreeing to disagree’ as we’re going to get.

 

[Bleedred]

oh im not saying rinne was good in the 2016 playoffs. but he was miles ahead of lundqvist, that was the point. i think you believe my position is rinne is a phenomenal, elite goalie- thats not the case. he's decent. lundqvist, at 34/35, is also decent.



its not that i don't put that much into SV%- i weight it pretty equally with wins, GAA, shutouts. so you’re looking at his SV% and declaring him one of the worst starters in the league, whereas I’m looking at the whole picture and seeing a decent goalie that isn’t that much worse than lundqvist. I think that’s as close to ‘agreeing to disagree’ as we’re going to get.

I'm fine with that.

I do think both were once elite and phenomenal goalies, it's just that I think Lundqvist has been one more recent in time than Rinne. Rinne is too inconsistent from year to year since 2013 and Lundqvist was very consistent up until this past season. I still think it's fair to call Lundqvist an elite goalie, as he's only had one bad season recently. Really only one bad season in his career, as his .912 in 07-08 was still around league average for that season. If Lundqvist has another season like the one he just had, I think it's safe to remove him from the ''Elite'' category and consider his days of consistency to be over.

 

[Scorcho]

I honestly might have to agree here, Lundqvist of the past few years is probably almost even with Rinne

 

[Scorcho]

I honestly might have to agree here, Lundqvist of the past few years is probably almost even with Rinne

He has had good numbers, but his play has dropped noticeably imo

 

[Bleedred]

I honestly might have to agree here, Lundqvist of the past few years is probably almost even with Rinne

Well Rinne has been good in 2 of the last 3 years and Lundqvist has also been good in 2 of the last 3 years, but the not good year for him was the most recent one.

 

[MartyOwns]

He has had good numbers, but his play has dropped noticeably imo

i don't think i've ever seen anyone quote/reply to themselves before

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

871083336923480064

I hope PAP can pot one for the Preds tonight. Forgot he was even on them lol.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

871083336923480064

I hope PAP can pot one for the Preds tonight. Forgot he was even on them lol.

messed that up and can't edit:

 

[AfroThunder396]

SV% is a terribly flawed stat and should not be presented without context.

 

[Bleedred]

SV% is a terribly flawed stat and should not be presented without context.

When it's used in a small sample size, I would generally agree.

Although the eye test has me believing that half the goals Rinne has allowed in these two games were at least stoppable.

 

[glenwo2]

messed that up and can't edit:

Watch him get a hatty tonight just because. #AreUKiddingMe?

 

[Devils Dominion]

Nash fans scream "Sux!" After each Penguin starter is announced.

I remember a time.....

 

[VoidCreature]

Rinne is Guentzel's *****.

 

[Bleedred]

I almost can't see Pittsburgh not sweeping this thing, at this point.

 

[VoidCreature]

Guentzel's 30% shooting percentage is the second highest in recorded playoff history among players with at least 30 shots.

 

[Dialamo]

Really like this Jake kid what a gem for Pitt!

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Really like this Jake kid what a gem for Pitt!

Just another product of Crosby. Once again, that play was all 87.

 

[VoidCreature]

Rinne making dump ins look like tough saves.

 

[Tundra]

Brass Bonanza!