Speculation: Our Contender Window

What is our contender window?


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henchman21

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Feb 24, 2012
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I can see trading 1sts, 2nds, prospects and young players. But the import of the remark is as though the Avs would be intentionally foregoing the likelihood of making the POs even as a wild card for a very long time. And I would have a problem with that. If you said a season or two, that's a different matter depending on the context of the situation at the time.

Every team is going to have ups and downs, but as long as MacK and Mikko play at a high level the Avs should make the playoffs. As long as they are playing as 80-100 point players (hopefully 7-8 more seasons), the Avs should make the playoffs no matter what futures the Avs give up in the next 4-5 years. There will likely be a varying quality and if they are more of a 1st round team or a real contender, but playoffs should happen every year in their primes.
 

The Abusement Park

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Holy **** guys. For the last time: There is NOTHING SAKIC CAN DO TO GUARANTEE A CUP! He could make all the short term moves you guys want and we could still end up winning zero cups. Stop framing the argument as winning cups vs not winning cups. None of the philosophies put forward in this thread lead necessarily to any cups.

And if cups is all you care about, then you should be on my side. Winning the cup is a lot like the draft. You can plan all you want, but whether or not your pick turns into a great player is often down to luck. Same goes for the playoffs. You might be the best team in the league, and yet get swept in the first round. So many things can go wrong in the playoffs that the best strategy is to give yourself as many chances as possible. Basically, what you guys seem to want is for the Avs to really go for it for the next four years, and not really consider anything beyond that. But what if in each of those four years something goes wrong for the Avs or something goes right for another team? We could load up all we want and still not win any cups in the next four years. Then we'll still end up sucking, but not have any cups to show for it. And honestly winning zero cups is the most likely outcome (mathematically-speaking) no matter what moves Sakic makes in the next four years.

What I'm suggesting is the best strategy is to load up as much as you can every year without harming your ability to compete for the cup at any time in the future. So you only trade assets if you think you can replace them internally, like when the Avs traded Barrie with Makar waiting in the wings. Same goes for prospects - we can afford to trade prospects if we think we have another prospect who can take their spot in the organization. The focus of the strategy is to give us the maximum number of chances at the cup, rather than the maximum chance in a single year or even in a few years. I think we have the best chance of winning a cup if we compete for more cups, rather than loading up for any one run.

And if you're looking for support for my argument, NHL history is absolutely full of teams that have sacrificed the future to make a run in the playoffs, not won the cup, then fell down the standings later. Columbus is looking like just the latest example. Sometimes it takes several decisions like that before the fall happens though.

Meanwhile, the list of NHL teams that have loaded up and traded away lots of futures and then won a cup - that's a smaller list. Cups tend to get won by teams that have been good for a long, long time, or who just go on a hot run (usually led by a hot goalie).

In my mind, you guys are basically advocating for something that NHL history does not support as a good way to run a team.

What teams have won a cup being passive? Cup winning teams are always adding players to take them to the next level, whether that's by getting better bottom 6'ers/pairing guys or adding higher end talent. Off the top of my head all the recent cup winners have added players at the deadline or offseason to improve the team and give them a better shot at winning.

That's not to say that we should blow all of our picks and prospects right now to win this year, but over the next 4 years picks and prospects should be moved 100% to improve the team where it's necessary. As awesome as prospects are sometimes you just can't wait the 2 years it will take them to become an impact player.
 
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avsfan09

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Dec 17, 2010
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People talking about the window, including myself are on a 3 or 4 year timeframe. They aren't saying all in this year and screw 3 or 4 years from now, but saying load up as much as possible for that timeframe. 3 or 4 years is a very long time in the NHL. From the 2015-16 team, only 5 players remain who were even in the NHL at all(EJ, Landy, MacK, Rants, and Z)... only 3 of them were up the whole season. 16-17 only brings that number up to 10 and 2 of those players are in the AHL (Greer and Lindholm). There is a lot of turnover in the NHL, and people are simply saying these are the prime contending years, then at best, a re-tool has to happen while the team builds depth back up from absorbing MacK's 9+m raise and then potential Mikko's 4-5m raise a couple seasons after.

What that means to me, is if a player can't be counted on as playing a good role or being an impact piece in the next 3/4 years, then they are available. Byram is probably the only untouchable I'd have in the prospect pool as his NHL timeline is next year and should be impact in 21-22. Newhook/Timmins/Bowers/insertfavoriteprospect would all be up for grabs if you can get a 3 or 4 year solution to a need. The lower down you go in value and impact timeline, you might shrink that to two or three years. IE I'd give up this year's first as a part of a deal for a 2 or 3 year 2nd line wing solution. 1st + Newhook/Timmins/Bowers for a 4 year solution. RD has a similar gap that I'd like solved too, but less of a pressing need today (needed within a couple seasons). Now Timmins could play his way out of the available group by getting into the NHL and sticking. Which has the nice option of solving the RD issue too.
I mostly agree with this tbh. I think I’m assuming that there is roster turnover no doubt. But guys like Rantanen, Mack, Girard, Landy and Makar should remain constants.

As for your proposal I wouldn’t give up a first for a pure rental but if a player is interested in resigning or we have a second season to woo him or trade him at the deadline than for sure.
 

avsfan09

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What teams have won a cup being passive? Cup winning teams are always adding players to take them to the next level, whether that's by getting better bottom 6'ers/pairing guys or adding higher end talent. Off the top of my head all the recent cup winners have added players at the deadline or offseason to improve the team and give them a better shot at winning.

That's not to say that we should blow all of our picks and prospects right now to win this year, but over the next 4 years picks and prospects should be moved 100% to improve the team where it's necessary. As awesome as prospects are sometimes you just can't wait the 2 years it will take them to become an impact player.
I might be wrong but did he say that he thinks Sakic should be passive? Or just weigh more options than the present? Don’t mean for this to come off snarky btw haven’t completely read this thread.
 

CB Joe

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Oct 12, 2008
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There is no need to rush things. The window is just opening and it could be a long one. Too many people are trying to win a cup in a single off-season. The Avs already added a top 4 defenseman and the entire 2nd line this off-season.
 

The Abusement Park

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I might be wrong but did he say that he thinks Sakic should be passive? Or just weigh more options than the present? Don’t mean for this to come off snarky btw haven’t completely read this thread.

I think planning on contending for 10+ years would be on the passive side of managing a cup contending team because I just don't think that is something that is very feasible. I think you need generational talents to make that happen(Caps & Pens) or you're not truly contending(Blues until they finally solved their issues).
 

AllAboutAvs

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I think planning on contending for 10+ years would be on the passive side of managing a cup contending team because I just don't think that is something that is very feasible. I think you need generational talents to make that happen(Caps & Pens) or you're not truly contending(Blues until they finally solved their issues).
I'm still not convinced the Blues solved their problem in net. Binnington has been going downhill since his great second half of the regular season.
 

henchman21

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Feb 24, 2012
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I'm still not convinced the Blues solved their problem in net. Binnington has been going downhill since his great second half of the regular season.
I’m of the opinion that you just need average or just hot goalie to win there. Binnington will probably regress a lot, but hey, he won a cup.
 
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AllAboutAvs

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I’m of the opinion that you just need average or just hot goalie to win there. Binnington will probably regress a lot, but hey, he won a cup.
Yeah I think that is what he was...a hot goalie for half a season, above average in the playoffs and now just average this season. It is early though.
 

AllAboutAvs

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Yeah but they fixed the big issue, which was acquiring a 1c. Way more important to fix that gaping hole than the goaler one.
No argument there. I was just commenting on the goalie side of it as you said issues vice issue. 1C is indeed more important and ROR certainly rose to the occasion.

As for winning the Cup with a lesser goalie, it is true it can be done but you better have a very good defense in front of him to limit the shots in the danger areas.
 
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Pokecheque

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Stats-wise Binnington wasn't as good in the postseason as you think he was. The problem wasn't that the Blues didn't have elite goaltending, it was that they had awful goaltending. They couldn't even get adequate performances out of their netminders when it mattered the most.

Binnington just has to be good enough for the latter half of the regular season and in the playoffs, and the Blues will have a legit shot to repeat, especially given their more-than-adequate defensive game.

Keep in mind, as good as Binnington was, even Armstrong wasn't completely sold on him. The contract they settled on was fair for both sides IMO.

All that said...you never know. A lot of things just suddenly came together for the Blooz, I could see that not happening two years in a row. Or at least I hope that's what happens...
 
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MarkT

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Pretty much every team that has built a Cup winner has sacrificed their future to build a key piece. The Blues gave up a 1st, a 2nd, a B prospect for ROR to solve an issue (and brought in a few good UFAs spending). The summer before they gave up 2 firsts for Schenn. By your logic they should have kept those picks and waited. The Caps were pretty solidly built off spending on UFAs, but shored up their defense with Kempny at that deadline. Other key pieces like Eller were brought in through trades of picks. The Pens patched back up their team (after having to re-tool from their first Cup) but spending all the future. They spent many 1sts, some 2nds and 3rds, and top prospects like Kapanen to keep that ship afloat. The Kings built their adjacent core (Carter, Richards, Williams) off trades and filled the depth by spending picks. Chicago used their sell and massive transaction volume to buy and sell their Cup group. They traded a young Saad for depth to trade for him back when they couldn't afford his replacement. They've moved their top prospects and young players with little hesitation. All Cup teams load up and sell off around the core. They have a defined core that they keep and build the best team around that as possible.

It's clear you have absolutely no idea what I think if this is your reply to me. Do you think I'm arguing that Sakic should never make any moves? I think the exact opposite. I think if Sakic is going to keep this team in contention for the next decade, he's going to have to make a lot of moves. In my view, we should be expecting to see trades of guys like Jost, Compher, or even Landeskog or Timmins, if it looks like they'll be too expensive and the team can replace them internally. I'm also not opposed to making a trade here or there where we give up futures. All I'm asking for is balance in terms of both types of moves.

I'll give an example. We traded Soderberg (a useful player we felt we could replace with a younger player internally) and got back a 3rd. We then traded for Bura, and gave up a 2nd as well as a 3rd. So in the balance we're only down a 2nd. We can debate the merits of Bura elsewhere, but that's the kind of move I like. I also liked Sakic aggressively pursuing Panarin on a short-term deal, because that would help our chances to compete now without hurting our chances to compete in the future.

What I argue against is trying to sign all those good but not great free agents that come up every year. Guys like Pavelski, Zuccarello, Hayes, etc.. Guys that you have overpay in terms of both cap hit and term, who make enough that it genuinely affects your ability to keep the team together long-term. I'm against signing players who will help us now, but become the next Loui Eriksson later. I'm against trading picks and prospects that are likely to play key roles for us in the future if all we're getting in return is a short-term rental. I'm opposed to the philosophy that would include a phrase like "that's a problem for 5 years from now".

What teams have won a cup being passive? Cup winning teams are always adding players to take them to the next level, whether that's by getting better bottom 6'ers/pairing guys or adding higher end talent. Off the top of my head all the recent cup winners have added players at the deadline or offseason to improve the team and give them a better shot at winning.

Yep, like henchman you seem to have built a version of me in your head where I think Sakic shouldn't make any moves. See above. You're arguing with a figment of your imagination.

That's not to say that we should blow all of our picks and prospects right now to win this year, but over the next 4 years picks and prospects should be moved 100% to improve the team where it's necessary. As awesome as prospects are sometimes you just can't wait the 2 years it will take them to become an impact player.

Right, and that is exactly the philosophy I oppose. The only reason you can't wait the 2 years is if you've made choices to sacrifice the future for the present. It seems like if you were in charge you would trade pretty much every good pick and prospect we have who isn't going to be an impact player within the next 4 years. That's a recipe for watching MacKinnon and Rantanen either leave the team or watching them play for a terrible team with no depth. All in exchange for a chance at a cup. See, if we trade away all our picks and prospects, we'll almost certainly be bad at some point in the near future, but that same level of certainty doesn't apply to cup wins.
 

The Abusement Park

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You win cups with guys like ROR. He does almost everything well and we ****ed with him

I just wasn’t sure if he could drive offense well enough to be a 1C on a contender. I always thought he was perfect to have behind your 1C, but yeah I was wrong and I’ll own up to that one.
 

The Kingslayer

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I just wasn’t sure if he could drive offense well enough to be a 1C on a contender. I always thought he was perfect to have behind your 1C, but yeah I was wrong and I’ll own up to that one.
I dont think anyone saw him as a #1C not even me and I loved ROR on this team. I just know players like him is what we need when we get to playoffs. We kinda have that now with Kadri but Naz aint ROR.
 

The Abusement Park

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I dont think anyone saw him as a #1C not even me and I loved ROR on this team. I just know players like him is what we need when we get to playoffs. We kinda have that now with Kadri but Naz aint ROR.

I think getting him away from Boston in the playoffs will be good for him. He plays a game that's pretty conducive to the playoffs an should be a great fit. But yes he's not ROR.
 

TruePowerSlave

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I see nothing that suggest the Avs are going to be a fringe playoff team or worse in just 4 years. Ask this question on the mainboards and people will have a good laugh, HF Avs fans seem like an overly pessimistic group.

Some moves will need to be made for cap reasons but it doesn't mean the team will suck as a result. It's only becomes a real issue when you have bad contracts on the team, the have none, and make a bunch of short term moves. We just traded Barrie for good value because his next contract would become an issue for us.
 
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MarkT

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I see nothing that suggest the Avs are going to be a fringe playoff team or worse in just 4 years. Ask this question on the mainboards and people will have a good laugh, HF Avs fans seem like an overly pessimistic group.

Some moves will need to be made for cap reasons but it doesn't mean the team will suck as a result. It's only becomes a real issue when you have bad contracts on the team, the have none, and make a bunch of short term moves. We just traded Barrie for good value because his next contract would become an issue for us.

You know people are being really pessimistic when you of all people are calling them that :laugh:
 
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