Speculation: Our Contender Window

[MarkT]

I see this argument pop up over and over again.

There seems to be a lot of people here who believe we are currently in a contender window that will close within 4 years.

Others, like myself, don't see any real reason why our window needs to close so soon, and personally, I don't even like the term "window" because it includes an assumption, and maybe even an intention, that we won't be contenders at some point. I of course understand that no team can be a contender forever, but I don't like any team making decisions that will lead to the team not being a contender in the future. I believe all teams should try to be at least solid playoff teams every single season, and any decision that is likely to lead to missing the playoffs (even 8 years down the line) is a poor decision.

Here's what this argument really comes down to if you ask me. If you think the Avs have only the next four years to win a cup, then we should probably be trading draft picks and prospects for players who can help us win as soon as possible. If you think our window is longer or you think there should be no window, then such short-term thinking is harmful to the team.

So what I'm hoping to do in this thread is direct all the arguments about contending windows here rather than having them bleed into every argument about every move the Avs make and might make.

In short, what's your opinion about the Avs' contending window?

Click to read more...

 

[RockLobster]

The Avs' window to contend & compete for a Stanley Cup goes through to the end of MacKinnon's contract. To me, it's just that simple. At the time MacKinnon signed his deal, it wasn't anywhere close to the bargain that it is now. He had not broken out and if he had continued playing to the level he was at, he would be looking at a raise at the end of his deal (as many tend to get), but it would not be to the level that he is currently looking at (12M minimum, in my opinion).

Combine that with Rantanen's raise that we know is kicking in next season, and then upcoming raises for Landeskog, Makar (should he be what we believe/hope he'll be), Grubauer (unless we find someone else), then it becomes harder to keep this contending team together. I already believe that Rantanen will be the one to go after his deal is up. By then the Avs will have MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Makar all locked up to new deals and there's a chance we may not have room for him. Of course I recognize that it is 6 years down the road, we have no idea where the salary cap will be, so it is entirely possible that they can make it fit. The point I and others who buy into the current MacKinnon contract being the "window" is that we have a certain amount of cost certainty now, that we know about.

 

[MarkT]

The Avs' window to contend & compete for a Stanley Cup goes through to the end of MacKinnon's contract. To me, it's just that simple. At the time MacKinnon signed his deal, it wasn't anywhere close to the bargain that it is now. He had not broken out and if he had continued playing to the level he was at, he would be looking at a raise at the end of his deal (as many tend to get), but it would not be to the level that he is currently looking at (12M minimum, in my opinion).

Combine that with Rantanen's raise that we know is kicking in next season, and then upcoming raises for Landeskog, Makar (should he be what we believe/hope he'll be), Grubauer (unless we find someone else), then it becomes harder to keep this contending team together. I already believe that Rantanen will be the one to go after his deal is up. By then the Avs will have MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Makar all locked up to new deals and there's a chance we may not have room for him. Of course I recognize that it is 6 years down the road, we have no idea where the salary cap will be, so it is entirely possible that they can make it fit. The point I and others who buy into the current MacKinnon contract being the "window" is that we have a certain amount of cost certainty now, that we know about.

I honestly don't get it. We have a 4 year window because we might possibly have trouble keeping Rantanen six years from now? Just to put things in perspective, EJ coming off the books covers MacKinnon's raise (or at least most of it). If we have enough ELC players, I don't see any reason we can't keep our best players.

 

[klozge]

Impossible to answer this question without knowing the future. The window's open now, that's all I can say. There's potential for a very long opening, though, which is why I would not disrupt the development of team and franchise.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'm gonna say Macks contract unless our drafting improves tenfold over the next couple drafts. With Macks raise, Makars raise, Landys raise, Grubs raise/replacement, Byrams possible raise all having to be dealt with before Macks new deal will give us some possible issues in 5-6 years. It can absolutely be extended past Macks contract but the best shot is easily in the next 4 seasons. I'd love to say we can retool on the fly and keep the window open but that means our drafting will have to be top tier and our track record leaves a lot to be desired outside the top 5.

 

[Freudian]

It's possible to contend even when you have several players on big contracts. Pittsburgh did. Washington did. You do need players that will be able to contribute on ELCs to compensate, which is why you can't waste a lot of 1st round picks. Even more so for Avs, who can't reliably get players in the other rounds.

 

[Foppberg]

Who knows. People said the Caps window was closed, and then they won. Same with the Blues. A few dip years doesn't = window closed like some think.

 

[RockLobster]

I honestly don't get it. We have a 4 year window because we might possibly have trouble keeping Rantanen six years from now? Just to put things in perspective, EJ coming off the books covers MacKinnon's raise (or at least most of it). If we have enough ELC players, I don't see any reason we can't keep our best players.

I acknowledge that we do not know how the cap will be, and that we may very well be able to keep the team together. I don't believe anyone who thinks our current window being the MacKinnon contract hasn't acknowledged that.

But EJ's contract expiring making way for MacKinnon's raise (or most of it), is just one part of it. We still have:

-Makar's new deal, and if he is what we think he is, the Avs are going to need to lock him up for 8 years (if they can) and that's going to be a hefty raise out of his ELC. Let's say an 8 year deal comes in around 7M...well that's 6M additional right there

-Landeskog is getting re-signed and is probably getting into the 8's, so there's another 3M

-Grubauer will need re-signed, and if he continues being able to handle the starter's workload, then he's probably getting into the 5-5.5M area, so there's another 2Mish.

-What about Kadri? He has 2 years left at his 4.1M and if the Avs haven't gotten an adequate 2C before that contract is up, then we may be looking at re-signing him, and he's probably into the 7M-8M range just due to his name and career he's had thus far. But let's play on the more conservative side, so let's say 3M

Those are ones we know about right now because there's a certainty that their deals are expiring and the Avs will need to retain them (or bring in people to replace them at a similar cost).

So, just by that math we have:

MacK's raise: ~6M

+

Landeskog's raise: ~3M

+

Makar's raise: ~6M

+

Grubauer's raise: ~2Mish

+

Kadri's raise: ~3M

= 20M just right there, and that's not counting the current Girard deal which kicks in next year. We've seen the the NHLPA elect to not utilize the cap inflator, and as a result we've seen the cap come in under projections the last two seasons. We do know Seattle coming in should result in a cap increase, which will be good, but the question then moves to whether or not the increases stay.

And let's add in the complication that the NHLPA hates the escrow system, and if that ends up being adjusted that will have an impact on the cap as well.

My bottom line is that there are just way too many uncertainties out there, but we know we're facing rising costs within the next 4 years, and it's very possible that after those 4 years are up the team will need to retool and thus won't necessarily be guaranteed to continue being in their window of contention.

 

[ASmileyFace]

Our "window" started last season and continues until MacK's contract is up. Some teams have succeeded in retooling and won cups with players on big contracts, but as others have said, that requires top tier drafting which the Avalanche have not had.

I think we should go all in this season. Trade away that first rounder and whatever prospects we need to in order to find some winger help for the second line. Trading away picks from the 2021 draft on is something I wouldn't do though. Start with going all in this season. We will need high quality ELC players to round out the roster in year 4 of MacK's contract too, but I feel like we can afford to trade away 2020's draft picks for immediate help now.

 

[ArWKo]

I acknowledge that we do not know how the cap will be, and that we may very well be able to keep the team together. I don't believe anyone who thinks our current window being the MacKinnon contract hasn't acknowledged that.

But EJ's contract expiring making way for MacKinnon's raise (or most of it), is just one part of it. We still have:

-Makar's new deal, and if he is what we think he is, the Avs are going to need to lock him up for 8 years (if they can) and that's going to be a hefty raise out of his ELC. Let's say an 8 year deal comes in around 7M...well that's 6M additional right there

-Landeskog is getting re-signed and is probably getting into the 8's, so there's another 3M

-Grubauer will need re-signed, and if he continues being able to handle the starter's workload, then he's probably getting into the 5-5.5M area, so there's another 2Mish.

-What about Kadri? He has 2 years left at his 4.1M and if the Avs haven't gotten an adequate 2C before that contract is up, then we may be looking at re-signing him, and he's probably into the 7M-8M range just due to his name and career he's had thus far. But let's play on the more conservative side, so let's say 3M

Those are ones we know about right now because there's a certainty that their deals are expiring and the Avs will need to retain them (or bring in people to replace them at a similar cost).

So, just by that math we have:

MacK's raise: ~6M

+

Landeskog's raise: ~3M

+

Makar's raise: ~6M

+

Grubauer's raise: ~2Mish

+

Kadri's raise: ~3M

= 20M just right there, and that's not counting the current Rantanen and Girard deals which kick in next year. We've seen the the NHLPA elect to not utilize the cap inflator, and as a result we've seen the cap come in under projections the last two seasons. We do know Seattle coming in should result in a cap increase, which will be good, but the question then moves to whether or not the increases stay.

And let's add in the complication that the NHLPA hates the escrow system, and if that ends up being adjusted that will have an impact on the cap as well.

My bottom line is that there are just way too many uncertainties out there, but we know we're facing rising costs within the next 4 years, and it's very possible that after those 4 years are up the team will need to retool and thus won't necessarily be guaranteed to continue being in their window of contention.

Just pointing out in case you're using it to consider cap implications but Rantanen's new deal is already in place. Girard is the only one with a raise that doesn't kick in until next year.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

The contender window begins this year in my opinion and goes until Mack's next contract ONLY IF the Avs aren't careful. If they are then there is no reason the Avs can't continue to contend. If Joe can continue to make savvy pickups like graves we can continue to have cheap depth throughout the lineup. The key will be for one of the young players (Bowers Newhook Jost etc) to be able to take over Kadri's spot. In my opinion whether you think the Avs can or can't compete after Mack's next deal is predicated on how much one believes in our forward prospects/ability to draft in the 20s.

 

[RockLobster]

Just pointing out in case you're using it to consider cap implications but Rantanen's new deal is already in place. Girard is the only one with a raise that doesn't kick in until next year.

Yeah, I realized that after I hit post and was going back to edit it out lol

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I see this argument pop up over and over again.

There seems to be a lot of people here who believe we are currently in a contender window that will close within 4 years.

Others, like myself, don't see any real reason why our window needs to close so soon, and personally, I don't even like the term "window" because it includes an assumption, and maybe even an intention, that we won't be contenders at some point. I of course understand that no team can be a contender forever, but I don't like any team making decisions that will lead to the team not being a contender in the future. I believe all teams should try to be at least solid playoff teams every single season, and any decision that is likely to lead to missing the playoffs (even 8 years down the line) is a poor decision.

Here's what this argument really comes down to if you ask me. If you think the Avs have only the next four years to win a cup, then we should probably be trading draft picks and prospects for players who can help us win as soon as possible. If you think our window is longer or you think there should be no window, then such short-term thinking is harmful to the team.

So what I'm hoping to do in this thread is direct all the arguments about contending windows here rather than having them bleed into every argument about every move the Avs make and might make.

In short, what's your opinion about the Avs' contending window?

If you try to be a playoff team every season you will end up like Minnesota Wild. Team with no direction or hope for the better future. I rather suck few years and come back stronger than live in delusion of winning something.

 

[MarkT]

I acknowledge that we do not know how the cap will be, and that we may very well be able to keep the team together. I don't believe anyone who thinks our current window being the MacKinnon contract hasn't acknowledged that.

But EJ's contract expiring making way for MacKinnon's raise (or most of it), is just one part of it. We still have:

-Makar's new deal, and if he is what we think he is, the Avs are going to need to lock him up for 8 years (if they can) and that's going to be a hefty raise out of his ELC. Let's say an 8 year deal comes in around 7M...well that's 6M additional right there

-Landeskog is getting re-signed and is probably getting into the 8's, so there's another 3M

-Grubauer will need re-signed, and if he continues being able to handle the starter's workload, then he's probably getting into the 5-5.5M area, so there's another 2Mish.

-What about Kadri? He has 2 years left at his 4.1M and if the Avs haven't gotten an adequate 2C before that contract is up, then we may be looking at re-signing him, and he's probably into the 7M-8M range just due to his name and career he's had thus far. But let's play on the more conservative side, so let's say 3M

Those are ones we know about right now because there's a certainty that their deals are expiring and the Avs will need to retain them (or bring in people to replace them at a similar cost).

So, just by that math we have:

MacK's raise: ~6M

+

Landeskog's raise: ~3M

+

Makar's raise: ~6M

+

Grubauer's raise: ~2Mish

+

Kadri's raise: ~3M

= 20M just right there, and that's not counting the current Rantanen and Girard deals which kick in next year. We've seen the the NHLPA elect to not utilize the cap inflator, and as a result we've seen the cap come in under projections the last two seasons. We do know Seattle coming in should result in a cap increase, which will be good, but the question then moves to whether or not the increases stay.

And let's add in the complication that the NHLPA hates the escrow system, and if that ends up being adjusted that will have an impact on the cap as well.

My bottom line is that there are just way too many uncertainties out there, but we know we're facing rising costs within the next 4 years, and it's very possible that after those 4 years are up the team will need to retool and thus won't necessarily be guaranteed to continue being in their window of contention.

It's not going to be easy - that's for sure. But if you want to talk about raises, well, in that same amount of time, the following players' contracts will end: Johnson (6m), Cole (4.25m), Donskoi (3.9m), Compher (3.5m), Burakovsky (3.25m), Zadorov (3.2m), Calvert (2.85m) Wilson (2.6m) Barrie's retained salary (2.75m), Nieto (1.975m), Bellemare (1.8m), Orpik's buyour (1.5m) Barberio (1.45m), Connauton (1.375m). That's 40.4 million to play with, and since I don't expect them to re-sign Kadri, that's nearly 45 million.

Now, we'll likely replace some of those guys with comparable cap hits, or re-sign them. But if we replace about half of those guys with ELC players, we can easily afford all the raises to our key players, especially if the cap goes up.

What this means is the secret to us maintaining our cap window is the maximize the number of effective players we have who are playing on ELC or low-cost contracts. That's why trading away picks and prospects in the hopes of winning in the next 4 years will increase the chances of that 4 years being all we get, and decrease the chances of us being a contending team for a long, long time.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

The contender window begins this year in my opinion and goes until Mack's next contract ONLY IF the Avs aren't careful. If they are then there is no reason the Avs can't continue to contend. If Joe can continue to make savvy pickups like graves we can continue to have cheap depth throughout the lineup. The key will be for one of the young players (Bowers Newhook Jost etc) to be able to take over Kadri's spot. In my opinion whether you think the Avs can or can't compete after Mack's next deal is predicated on how much one believes in our forward prospects/ability to draft in the 20s.

If they play things "carefully" our window will never truly open. The team is very good right now but its still at least one or two pieces away from truly being a top tier contender. Teams like Winnipeg and Minnesota played things too carefully when they had an open window and now those windows are slammed shut.

Even if you look at the teams that have won cups recently... None of them truly had a window opened for more than 5-6 years. Pittsburgh went through a retool for a couple years before becoming contenders and winning b2b cups. Washington had to retool its goaltending and Defense before winning a cup. The Blues had to retool the forwards and goaltending before winning. LA and Chicago are in the process of its retool right now have enjoying success for a few years as well.

The Avs have a 4 year window up until the Mack deal expires. After that, they are going to have to spend a couple years having taken a step back and hope that they have improved drafting enough that in those couple down years we can have the proper young players instilled to eventually come in and put us back into contender status again.

 

[MarkT]

If you try to be a playoff team every season you will end up like Minnesota Wild. Team with no direction or hope for the better future. I rather suck few years and come back stronger than live in delusion of winning something.

Why are you using Minnesota as a comparable? In what ways is our current team in any way similar to any Wild team in the past decade?

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

My answer. 4 years or less. Then we make to make some changes, trade few players, pay more for the old ones. If we want to keep the window open for longer, we need to make the right moves, like Pittsburgh and Chicago. They made also some wrong decisions but some good ones which meant they could keep the window open longer. We will have to sacrifice some players and it's going to be tough. After 4 years we will see how we did with the changes.

 

[flyfysher]

I was sneaking around on the TML board the other day and now reading this forum. Do you guys realize how lucky the Avs are to have a 'short' window contention of 4 years or that their cap management is in as good a shape as it is? Other teams and not just the TML would kill for that.

FTR, it is too soon to say what will transpire with the cap to say our window is only 4 years.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Why are you using Minnesota as a comparable? In what ways is our current team in any way similar to any Wild team in the past decade?

Because you were talking about being playoff team every season. That's mentality they have. Same with LA Kings. Both these teams should have done re-build or retool but keep pushing for Stanley Cup. Proper delusions.

 

[Cappuccino]

To be honest, I don't really believe in closing windows anymore. One trade can change a lot. You just need to avoid paying your 3rd and 4th line players too much.

A lot need to align in a certain year to have a real shot. I will certainly help if the Avs draft a bit better though.

Don't worry too much what might happen 4 years down the road. Enjoy this time and this team and we will see.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

The current MacK contract.

Not that it can’t be extended with some shrewd moves, but look at it this way... Kadri and Grubauer... our 2C and 1G... make as much combined as MacK’s increase alone will likely be.

Scary thought.

Of course, deals with Landeskog, Makar, etc. whoever else.

It’s the next 4 years.

On July 1st 2023, this initial window is likely to close. That’s when MacK’s deal expires and either his new one kicks in or he’s gone.

 

[MarkT]

Because you were talking about being playoff team every season. That's mentality they have. Same with LA Kings. Both these teams should have done re-build or retool but keep pushing for Stanley Cup. Proper delusions.

Here's what I actually said: "I believe all teams should try to be at least solid playoff teams every single season"

Solid playoff team does not mean just barely squeaking in. And I consider solid playoff team to be a down year for the way I want the Avs to be run. The goal every year should be top team in the league.

Also, funny you chose those teams. Why not Boston, Washington, Nashville, San Jose, Tampa or Pittsburgh? You know, teams that make the playoffs every year and always seem to be contenders even when people say they're done.

The Wild never had enough talent to be contenders, but were stuck with a contract situation that never allowed them to tank. Then they made a series of poor decisions and are now in a situation where they should be tanking, but aren't.

L.A. also made a series of poor decisions by continuing to acquire slow, old players despite the NHL getting consistently younger and faster.

Neither of those team is a comparable team to the Avalanche.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

If they play things "carefully" our window will never truly open. The team is very good right now but its still at least one or two pieces away from truly being a top tier contender. Teams like Winnipeg and Minnesota played things too carefully when they had an open window and now those windows are slammed shut.

Even if you look at the teams that have won cups recently... None of them truly had a window opened for more than 5-6 years. Pittsburgh went through a retool for a couple years before becoming contenders and winning b2b cups. Washington had to retool its goaltending and Defense before winning a cup. The Blues had to retool the forwards and goaltending before winning. LA and Chicago are in the process of its retool right now have enjoying success for a few years as well.

The Avs have a 4 year window up until the Mack deal expires. After that, they are going to have to spend a couple years having taken a step back and hope that they have improved drafting enough that in those couple down years we can have the proper young players instilled to eventually come in and put us back into contender status again.

I wouldn't necessarily say that Winnipeg was too "careful". They attempted to get that second line center they needed twice (Stastny and Hayes).
Minnesota had holes throughout the lineup and they never had a window imo.

Perhaps careful wasn't the right word. What I meant by careful was careful about who the Avs target. There is a big difference between being careful and adding players for the sake of going for it. See the Flames adding Neal then having to move him for Lucic in a reactionary move, because of a perceived lack of toughness against the Avs last summer. Calgary has hurt their own window with a stupid trade. If they had been careful they could have gone about that a different way, by not going for Neal in the first place.

The pens were able to successfully re-tool because they got Kessel. That is a careful move, they could have gone out and got "anyone" just for the sake of fixing their winger depth, like, imo, Winnipeg and Hayes last summer.

I would also argue that SJ adding Karlsson for that price was not careful planning whereas the Vegas adding Stone was.

 

[Gatorbait19]

I consider the Avs window to be about 8 years, but I don’t think you can view it that way. There are too many variables between now and only even a few years from now to say. I think Joe said it best that we’ve got to look at things from 1, 3 and 5 year windows and plan accordingly. We’ve got to be cognizant for 5+ years down the road, but not at the complete expense of the present.

Let’s plan for this 3-5 year window that we know for certain is open now, and 3 years from now we can worry the next 3-5 year window.

 

[Alex Jones]

We'll have to make some moves sometime around that fourth year. That should allow us to bring in some other assets, whether or not that extends the window is a huge question. Based on what we have seen from Sakic I hope that he is able to make some moves for picks/prospects that can extend our window. This has happened to teams before. We will have to reload, but with sharp moves we should be okay.