Ottawa/Detroit/New Jersey/Buffalo: Which team will breakout first?

[Zman5778]

As a neutral fan, I wonder if it's something like this order

Sabres (there are many good pieces here - Thompson, Olofsson, Tuch, Krebs, Mittlestadt, Cozens, Dahlin... but the group really needs to gel up front, plus I'm not sure there's much there on D besides Dahlin, and then there's the goaltending [Anderson is good but getting old, Tokarski shouldn't be getting the nod all that often, and will UPL have a Markstrom-style breakout? If he does then I'd have more hope in their future)

Regarding the bolded........ummmmmmmmmm what now?

Dahlin is having his mega-breakout year. Dude is looking every bit of the franchise defenseman he was chosen to be.

Owen Power is coming, probably next week. Another #1 pick.....ceiling isn't as high on this one, but him and Dahlin are likely to play 25 min each in their primes, and when they don't play........

Mattias Samuelsson says hi. He's a better skating version of his father Kjell. He's already getting 20+ min a game and is getting time against top competition.

Ryan Johnson is also coming, probably next week. Former #1 pick. Super-slick skating, positionally sound defenseman.

Henri Jokiharju is already established as a top-6 NHL defender and is Dahlin's likely partner (no matter how badly Sabres fans want him with Samuelsson).

Casey Fitzgerald is Samuelsson-lite and likely a 3rd pairing guy long-term.


There's PLENTY of defense in the Sabres cabinet. The Sabres MAJOR issues are two-fold:
1.) Do we have the top-flight offensive talent? We've got depth out the ears.....but do we have the guys that can be counted on when we need a goal?
2.) Immediate goaltending. Long-term, we should be OK -- one of UPL/Portillo/Levi is bound to establish himself as a legit NHL starter. But WTF do we do next year? Anderson/UPL seems shaky at best.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

The Devils score more goals than the other teams on the list by a fairly significant margin,¹ and that's with their best forward missing almost 20 games.² And it would be hard to get worse goaltending in the future.

I'm not sure these words mean what you think they mean.¹

Sabres have you beat here.²

The Sabres goaltending is bad but still not as bad as the Devils, they don't score as much, and have worse underlyings.

Our goalies weren't all that much better if at all, we also had played I think 6 goalies around the middle of the season.

Scored a little less but had the 2nd most injuries and have the most coming up next season of these teams. Also some huge additions by subtraction.

Sabres have rallied since trading Eichel and a lot of guys have stepped up. They still lack a franchise forward, and while I’ve been super high on Tage for longer than Sabres fans have, he’s not that guy. Neither is Krebs, Cozens, Mittelstadt, and whoever their 1st round pick is this season.

Even if they don't have one (and I'm not sure you can say they for sure won't), that's a pretty large quantity of higher end/good players. Also Quinn and Peterka, Tuch provides a lot, VO.

Plus we have as good as a franchise defenseman as you can get, and possibly a 2nd one in Power.

Here are the P/GP for "up and coming players" across the four teams (minimum 35 GP):

I know you had a gp cut-off and took out some older guys based on these players being "up and coming", but Mitts is 23 and looks pretty good, Tuch is 25 for the next month and Olofsson is 26 for a couple of months. Three significant players not all that old.

 

[NyQuil]

I know you had a gp cut-off and took out some older guys based on these players being "up and coming", but Mitts is 23 and looks pretty good, Tuch is 25 for the next month and Olofsson is 26 for a couple of months. Three significant players not all that old.

Tuch is included though.

35 games (e.g. half the season) and the age of 25 was my arbitrary cut-off which is why Mitts and Olofsson were excluded.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think it's pretty close. Tbh a lot of players discussed in this thread are inconsequential. What matters is the core pieces. And management.

Power/Sanderson/Edvinsson/Hughes development is a big part of the puzzle.

Which of the teams do best in the 2022 draft? If someone adds Wright that'll move the needle.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Tuch is included though.

35 games (e.g. half the season) and the age of 25 was my arbitrary cut-off which is why Mitts and Olofsson were excluded.

Might have been a little stoned and missed Tuch lol

And I recognized the cut-offs but still just pointing out important players not included.





As for the thread, the Sabres have been playing really well this past month, mostly against good teams.

I don't think anyone else has as much improvement coming next year. Tuch, Mitts, Krebs, Samuelsson all good pieces and only played about half of the season. Quinn, Peterka, Power will all be on the team (maybe not JJP, but probably).

Even Olofsson had a wrist injury that kept him out ~8gp and severely hampered his play for a while after, but he has been back on track lately. And getting rid of Bjorn, Eakin, and certain defenseman is addition by subtraction.

Goaltending has been highly suspect for the most part. UPL could be up next year but we still need another one short-term. Hopefully this is addressed.



This is all mostly shorter term stuff. Still have Levi/Portillo for G prospects and a pretty healthy pipeline after the guys already listed. Add three 1st rd picks this year, the Sabres are going to surprise people soon.

Obligatory comment about how you're sleeping on Dahlin

 

[Advanced stats]

Going to have to go with NJ here. Their division is light years easier in the next 5 seasons in comparison to the Atlantic.
Islanders are bad
Pittsburgh and Washington are aging quickly.
Columbus is meh
Philly is rebuilding

Honestly New Jersey probably makes the post season next year and for the foreseeable future.

On the flip side, it's basicly unfathomable for Tampa, Florida or Toronto to miss the playoffs in the next 3+ seasons. Obviously it's hockey and anything can happen, but the Atlantic teams here have a much harder circumstances

 

[Oneiro]

Buffalo with Dahlin and Power is a great base. If they add Bedard or Michkov, I think they don't have to worry about what else happens, the rest will sort itself out and it's a matter of if, not when, they win it all.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I’ve been saying Buffalo for a few years now but they continue to find ways to disappoint. I like what NJ is building the best of the teams listed. I think Jack Hughes is going to have a huge year next year.

 

[Matt Ress]

Tuch is included though.

35 games (e.g. half the season) and the age of 25 was my arbitrary cut-off which is why Mitts and Olofsson were excluded.

For reference
Skinner (29 yr) 28+22 for 50 in 68 gp
Scored as I'm typing this
Olofsson (26) 15+20 for 35 in 60 gp
Okposo (33) 18+23 for 41 in 64 gp

Okposo has 1 yr left after this year, Olofsson is an RFA and Skinner has 32 years left on his contract. Couple of decent vets is certainly no bad thing.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

For reference
Skinner (29 yr) 28+22 for 50 in 68 gp
Scored as I'm typing this
Olofsson (26) 15+20 for 35 in 60 gp
Okposo (33) 18+23 for 41 in 64 gp

Okposo has 1 yr left after this year, Olofsson is an RFA and Skinner has 32 years left on his contract. Couple of decent vets is certainly no bad thing.

Mitts Just got a nice one too

Olofsson should increase his totals next season

 

[Sun God Nika]

Look out NHL Melnyk isn't handicapping the sens anymore.

Sanderson is coming in, and some a bunch of other good deph prospects (Greig, Sokolov, Jarventie, Thomson,JBD, Merlianien, etc)

Think the sens are in the mix for a wildcard spot if they have the right offseason this year.

 

[NyQuil]

For reference
Skinner (29 yr) 28+22 for 50 in 68 gp
Scored as I'm typing this
Olofsson (26) 15+20 for 35 in 60 gp
Okposo (33) 18+23 for 41 in 64 gp

Okposo has 1 yr left after this year, Olofsson is an RFA and Skinner has 32 years left on his contract. Couple of decent vets is certainly no bad thing.

I just didn't want to write a post that included all the players on all four teams, so I focused on the young and up and coming cores.

 

[Matt Ress]

I just didn't want to write a post that included all the players on all four teams, so I focused on the young and up and coming cores.

No doubt. I voted homer and it looks like the Sabres are turning a corner but I really do like what the sens are putting together. Really good skill and physicality with a solid blue line. Seems like a team built for the playoffs.

 

[NyQuil]

No doubt. I voted homer and it looks like the Sabres are turning a corner but I really do like what the sens are putting together. Really good skill and physicality with a solid blue line. Seems like a team built for the playoffs.

What I found interesting when I plotted the young guys on the four teams is that they all had talented pieces that were in the same vicinity of one another.

We can certainly lean one way or another but I think it's very premature to be definitive which is exciting in my opinion.

Acquiring the right elite pieces in this year's lottery draft could make a massive difference with how close it is, as well as which recent draftees who are debuting right now make the transition to the NHL the most seamlessly and quickly.

 

[Mickey Marner]

All four seem like they need another gamebreaker and a goalie. The Devils are probably in the best position with the Pens, Caps and Islanders all being older teams that should naturally decline.

 

[Matt Ress]

What I found interesting when I plotted the young guys on the four teams is that they all had talented pieces that were in the same vicinity of one another.

We can certainly lean one way or another but I think it's very premature to be definitive which is exciting in my opinion.

Acquiring the right elite pieces in this year's lottery draft could make a massive difference with how close it is, as well as which recent draftees who are debuting right now make the transition to the NHL the most seamlessly and quickly.

Certainly none of these teams are running away from the pack. Each is missing key pieces, although all seem to be moving in the right direction. I think next season will create some separation and answer some questions by reasons you've touched on. Big off-season for all 4 teams.

What are the general thoughts on Sens ownership moving forward?

 

[Guttersniped]

Going to have to go with NJ here. Their division is light years easier in the next 5 seasons in comparison to the Atlantic.
Islanders are bad
Pittsburgh and Washington are aging quickly.
Columbus is meh
Philly is rebuilding

Honestly New Jersey probably makes the post season next year and for the foreseeable future.

On the flip side, it's basicly unfathomable for Tampa, Florida or Toronto to miss the playoffs in the next 3+ seasons. Obviously it's hockey and anything can happen, but the Atlantic teams here have a much harder circumstances

The Devils are in a pickle with goaltending after Blackwood’s struggles with injuries and two disasters in a row with UFA goalie signings. Just getting an average healthy NHL starter would be a big plus but that will be harder than you think this off-season as little will be available and a numerous team will be looking.

NJ’s goalie prospect have some promise but they’re not close and Buffalo’s collection has them beat after picking up Levi. Not sure what Detroit has in Cossa but they went for it there.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I think NJ is likely the closest as thru seem o have all the pieces minus goaltending.

I think Detroit is likely the closest to Cup contenders though, just will take longer to take the first playoff step (not biased at all I swear )

 

[NyQuil]

What are the general thoughts on Sens ownership moving forward?

As far as tangible items are concerned, the fact that Senators games will likely be played in Quebec City is certainly an eye-opener, although it's hard to separate it from the joint bid that Ottawa and Quebec City are putting together for the World Juniors.

The team currently rests in the hands of Eugene Melnyk's two daughters: Olivia and Anna. There were sources that indicated that Melnyk wished to keep the team in the family over the long-term.

We are currently unaware of any conditions that Melnyk placed in his will, but my understanding is that these kinds of conditions are common in estates, and there could be a caveat whereby they are unable to sell the team if it is made a condition in the will.

Aside from that, there is some optimism that Melnyk represented a lack of progress or a certain degree of inertia and now both the organization and the city is free to move forward on a number of fronts including the Lebreton Flats downtown arena project which had been shelved and is seen as an important component to revitalizing interest in the team.

There has been a lot of chatter about 3 or 4 bidding groups within the city who are committed to keeping the team in the city as well as moving forward with the downtown arena. Various ex-players and local leaders have been notionally tied to various groups.

In short, just a lot of gossip really at this stage, but there is some reserved optimism because the relationship between Eugene Melnyk and the City of Ottawa was irredeemable.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Wings
Buffalo
Ottawa
NJ

 

[NyQuil]

Statistically, Ottawa currently has the best goaltender, in Anton Forsberg, who in a wild coincidence, has delivered in a contract year.

Anton Forsberg OTT 17-14-3 2.72 .919
Anton Nedeljkovic DET 18-21-8 3.31 .901
Craig Anderson BUF 14-9-2 3.02 .903
Mackenzie Blackwood NJD 9-9-3 3.29 .894

Ottawa still has a bit of a goaltending dilemma given the money they have tied up in three goalies, with Murray suddenly finding himself competing for the #1 slot next season and Gustavsson being leap-frogged by Forsberg and maybe Sogaard as well.

As bad as Nedeljkovic's numbers are, Thomas Greiss is actually worse, with 8-12-1 3.76 .886.

Buffalo's Dustin Tokarski has virtually identical stats to Craig Anderson 7-10-5 3.24 .901.

Similarly, the other NJD goalies they have fielded this season have pretty similar numbers to Blackwood.

Either some young prospect or a new acquisition is going to have to make a big splash, or there's going to have to be some remarkable turnarounds for some of these guys in order to sniff the playoffs for 3 out of the 4 teams.

That being said, I'm certainly not sold on Forsberg repeating his feat as he's 29 years old with 72 of his 93 career GP played over the course of a single season with Chicago and this current season with Ottawa.

And yes, I acknowledge that team defence has an enormous impact on the statistics of goaltenders, but that itself is an indicator of an issue.

 

[SensontheRush]

Lol Pinto vs Mercer does not favour the Sens.

Mercer is tracking like a Bergeron clone.

Beyond this comparison being thrown out every single time when describing two-way centres, Pinto looks the same way, and if he doesn't play another game this year, he is a pretty good candidate for the Calder next year.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I think NJ is likely the closest as thru seem o have all the pieces minus goaltending.

I think Detroit is likely the closest to Cup contenders though, just will take longer to take the first playoff step (not biased at all I swear )

Unfortunately Detroit isn’t close to anything until they get another high end center.

But, I don’t think people realize how quickly Detroit could turn things around, either.

 

[NyQuil]

Unfortunately Detroit isn’t close to anything until they get another high end center.

But, I don’t think people realize how quickly Detroit could turn things around, either.

Everyone who is a fan of a team in this thread thinks that everyone else doesn't see the potential of their team.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I think it's pretty close. Tbh a lot of players discussed in this thread are inconsequential. What matters is the core pieces. And management.

Power/Sanderson/Edvinsson/Hughes development is a big part of the puzzle.

I agree. I also think it's whoever can bring in big pieces externally. Ottawa looks to be sold in next couple of years, and even that being considered, are in on Fiala or what have you regardless. Those are big considerations.

Top line C:

Hughes - Stutzle - Norris - Larkin - Buffalo Missing

prospects: N/A

Top pairing D:

Chabot, Seider, Dahlin, Hamilton

prospects: Power, Edvinsson, Sanderson, Hughes

Top line wingers:

Batherson, Tkachuk, Raymond, Tuch, Thomson, Bratt, Bertuzzi

prospects: Quinn, Holtz

Top 6 depth:

Hischer, Cozenz, Skinner, Olafsson, Brown, Sherangovich, Mercer, Vrana,

prospects: Krebs, Greig, Bergrenn


RESULTS:

Buffalo and Detroit's C depth clearly behind NJD and Ottawa. Buffalo a distant last due to no number 1 C. All other organizations have one. Ottawa seemingly have 2 (I'm considering Stutzle's breakout).

On defense, they all seem dead even. All have an established number 1 with a defensive prospect all in the same tier.

On the wing, Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo lead it. NJD have Bratt, but most of their promise is in the pipeline not yet established. Buffalo has best depth on the wings no doubt, present and future. Goalie situation a crapshoot for all with NJD clearly behind.

Conclusions:
Buffalo is last place without an established number 1 C. Detroit second last due to younger core still going through motions. NJD and Ottawa are in the lead, lead goes to Ottawa with greater top end depth, especially on the wings.