Confirmed Signing with Link: [OTT] Thomas Chabot extended (8 years, $8M AAV)

[topshelf15]

Obviously happy about this one,but have to wonder why Chabot would resign here..And for so long....He just watched some very good players get tossed aside,from the league,s worst owner...

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

I would too. Hedman is just exiting his prime. Chabot still has 2-3 years until his peak.

Exiting his prime... at 28... You play too much NHL. A defenceman like hedman isn't slowing down til his mid to late 30s

 

[topshelf15]

Ok ,Chabot isnt Hedman ,come on ....But he is for sure a very good number 1 LHD,he kinda reminds me abit of a Roman Josi ...Good offensive skills and a developing defensive game....

 

[MattySnipes]

I give Melnyk and Dorion a tonne of shit...well...because it's Ottawa. But to be real, they nailed this signing. Chabot is the real deal. He's performed at every level and has always been expected to be a top guy. He always achieves it. Really, a great pick by Sens that draft.

He has proven it so far, and I believe he'll surpass it. Even though it's a one year sample size at NHL. This contract should look like a huge steal by year 3. Heck, maybe even year 2.

For a budget team like Ottawa, this is a risk but it's a great risk to take especially if you have a strong belief that this player will be great value, which he will be. If they waited another year, he'd easily ask for 9-10M+ because he's gonna have another 60+ point season in my eyes. Now you have your #1 for 9 years, which is longer than the EK65 deal, but over $3M cheaper, annually!

Like I said, I know I give the Sens management shit and make jokes but well done on this. Job well done.

 

[CB Joe]

That's too much money. NHL setting themselves up for another lockout.

 

[topshelf15]

I give Melnyk and Dorion a tonne of ****...well...because it's Ottawa. But to be real, they nailed this signing. Chabot is the real deal. He's performed at every level and has always been expected to be a top guy. He always achieves it. Really, a great pick by Sens that draft.

He has proven it so far, and I believe he'll surpass it. Even though it's a one year sample size at NHL. This contract should look like a huge steal by year 3. Heck, maybe even year 2.

For a budget team like Ottawa, this is a risk but it's a great risk to take especially if you have a strong belief that this player will be great value, which he will be. If they waited another year, he'd easily ask for 9-10M+ because he's gonna have another 60+ point season in my eyes. Now you have your #1 for 9 years, which is longer than the EK65 deal, but over $3M cheaper, annually!

Like I said, I know I give the Sens management **** and make jokes but well done on this. Job well done.

Agreed we all saw what this kid was about at the WJC ,nobody then thought this kid wasnt going to be a very good NHL defender...But right after he signs a long term contract,after his very good first full nhl season...We get the doubters ...Come on ,anybody other team would do the exact same thing as Ottawa, did here if they had the player and the chance

 

[sepHF]

this is one of those deals that seems absurdly expensive at the time but 3-4 years down the road will look great.


Crazy how much money all these kids are getting straight out of their ELC's though, jesus.

 

[Znith]

I don't understand why people think this is a bad deal....he scored 55 pts in his 2nd year...averaging 24mpg at 21 years old
Former 1st rd pick
Star of the Canadian WJC team
Great with the puck, very good without
An absolute horse at such a young age

Like honestly he's worth $8m a year right now, much less paying out UFA years and potential growth.

...And this is coming from a Leafs fan

 

[Sens With Benefits]

Obviously I'm not a Sens fan, but this is a great contract.

Looking forward to the Battle of Ontario heating up again.

With players like Tkachuk the rivalry will be fun to watch. Toronto is going to be better than Ottawa for the next 5 years. It's too bad their not at the same spot with their rebuilds, that would be even more entertaining.

 

[theVladiator]

There are a couple of things that a lot of people seem to be missing in this thread

First, the cap inflation means that this deal is more like 7M AAV in today's cap dollars.

Second, Chabot's numbers are significantly better than any other young D coming off an ELC signed this year (McAvoy, Werenski, Provorov). So from the stat sheet point of view he has no peers to compare his contract to. HFboards hype doesn't count in contract negotiations.

I'd say, given Chabot's trajectory, there is a good chance he will be a Norris caliber D in the near future. That's ~11M in the present market, and he is signed for 7M equivalent, so I'd say there is a very good chance this is an absolute steal.

Sure, there is also a chance that he regresses into 3rd pair D. But that chance isn't really very good, it's more of the Dumb and Dumber meme territory of "there is a chance". Why focus on that?

 

[KDOTO]

They could have probably signed this deal next offseason when you’ve had another year to see his progress.

Nah it would go up a couple mil if he let's say hit 65 points this season. That's an impressive production for an elc defenseman. I think it's the choice they made, Chabot looks pretty legit offensively. I also think 10mil per is the number all these rfa dmen are looking at next, they see all them forwards getting it and believe they deserve it too.

 

[KDOTO]

There are a couple of things that a lot of people seem to be missing in this thread

First, the cap inflation means that this deal is more like 7M AAV in today's cap dollars.

Second, Chabot's numbers are significantly better than any other young D coming off an ELC signed this year (McAvoy, Werenski, Provorov). So from the stat sheet point of view he has no peers to compare his contract to. HFboards hype doesn't count in contract negotiations.

I'd say, given Chabot's trajectory, there is a good chance he will be a Norris caliber D in the near future. That's ~11M in the present market, and he is signed for 7M equivalent, so I'd say there is a very good chance this is an absolute steal.

Sure, there is also a chance that he regresses into 3rd pair D. But that chance isn't really very good, it's more of the Dumb and Dumber meme territory of "there is a chance". Why focus on that?

The problem here is all the other dmen completed their elc years before signing. So they all played their 3rd year and all three had set backs that brought them to choosing to bridge or lower AVV.

Ex. If provorov had progress and had a monster season we would be probably looking at him making around 9m per but that 3rd season kept his salary AK down. Don't think that will be the case with Chabot but still its there to consider.

Also what do mean with your first sentence about inflation and cap dollar making him a 7 mil player, then a Norris dmen is 11? You saying he making 7 mil compared to what he could make after a couple years. No slight just not sure what you mean.

 

[KDOTO]

hows it a gamble for the sens? I don't get this, he is there for 8 years and they don't have to worry about him becoming a UFA quickly.

The gamble wich I believe is very minor is that he settles into a regular top 4 and not continue his path to be an elite number 1. Don't think Ottawa needs to worry to much the kid passes all the eye and production test for me at least offensively wise.

 

[KDOTO]

Can’t they just all be overpaid?

Ekblad also did all his work straight out Jr's and sealed it with a Calder and had some high goal scoring output for a dmen especially during their elc. People talk dirty on it now but it was pretty impressive then. That's why he got that contract and that's how some risk don't pan out 100%.

Pretty sure Florida expected a perennial all-star and Norris caliber dmen by now but it hasn't turned out that way. Ekblad was also a much higher pedigree prospect then Chabot and proved it right away. After 2 season imo Ekblad was even more impressive then Chabot first 2 because of age and expectations. So he deserved that contract at that time.

Anyways that's the risk you take with Chabot and others alike but you still have to do it imo. But don't say there is no risk what's so ever.

 

[KDOTO]

I don't understand why people think this is a bad deal....he scored 55 pts in his 2nd year...averaging 24mpg at 21 years old
Former 1st rd pick
Star of the Canadian WJC team
Great with the puck, very good without
An absolute horse at such a young age

Like honestly he's worth $8m a year right now, much less paying out UFA years and potential growth.

...And this is coming from a Leafs fan

Don't believe anyone said it's a bad deal just that he is paid a little more right now then what he actually done. There is still a little bit risk involve is what I was saying as low as it was is its still there. That's not quite like saying it's a bad deal.

 

[BK201]

Obviously happy about this one,but have to wonder why Chabot would resign here..And for so long....He just watched some very good players get tossed aside,from the league,s worst owner...

Read articles him and white have been talking during both negotiations and they feel we have a solid rebuild in place and want to a part of it.

 

[Rysto]

Obviously happy about this one,but have to wonder why Chabot would resign here..And for so long....He just watched some very good players get tossed aside,from the league,s worst owner...

It's really hard to walk away from $64 million dollars. What if he blows out his knee this season and tanks his value?

 

[robertmac43]

That's too much money. NHL setting themselves up for another lockout.

The guy had 55 points in 70 games as a second year player. He is likely going to be a bargain before this contract is up.

 

[Sting]

Exiting his prime... at 28... You play too much NHL. A defenceman like hedman isn't slowing down til his mid to late 30s

The vast majority of players peak between 23-28 now.

Hedman may still be good from 30-38, but I wouldn't bet that he is a perennial top 5 d-man by then.

 

[NyQuil]

Hedman may still be good from 30-38, but I wouldn't bet that he is a perennial top 5 d-man by then.

I don't know - Chara was very effective for a very long period of time.

 

[theVladiator]

The problem here is all the other dmen completed their elc years before signing. So they all played their 3rd year and all three had set backs that brought them to choosing to bridge or lower AVV.

Ex. If provorov had progress and had a monster season we would be probably looking at him making around 9m per but that 3rd season kept his salary AK down. Don't think that will be the case with Chabot but still its there to consider.

If you really think something is not going to happen, still "considering it" and bringing up the topic for discussion is pointlessl waste of time.

In McAvoy's and Werenski's cases any talk of "regression" is very weak. McAvoys production stayed roughly same, and Werenski actually slightly improved over his sophomore year. Never mind that they have bridge contracts, so we'd be mixing Werenski/McAvoy vs Chabot with bridge vs. long-term. Too messy to reach any sort of meaningful conclusion.

The only example of really taking a step back would be Provorov. And he is also on long-term. But using Provorov as a measuring stick backfires badly if the crowd bringing it up actually cared to think this through. With all this talk of "regression" Provorov still secured 6M cap inflation adjusted AAV, vs. 7M in Chabot's case, all the while producing at almost HALF Chabot's rate. This isn't a dig on Provorov, just pointing out that the only example where the fantasies of "regressions" and subsequent crazy discounts to be had are blown to pieces by reality.

Also what do mean with your first sentence about inflation and cap dollar making him a 7 mil player, then a Norris dmen is 11? You saying he making 7 mil compared to what he could make after a couple years. No slight just not sure what you mean.

Let me explain the concept a little. With some deviations, similar impact players tend to command certain % of the total availabe CAP space. Crosby commanded 8.7M in 2005, McDavid 12.5M in 2017, 40% more, but approximately same share of the cap. The point is, 8M cap hit today will have less Cap impact in 8-9 years. If you do the math, in terms of Cap % in the last year it will be equivalent to what 6M salary is today, or 7M average over 8years (8M in the first, 6M in the last). That's the gist of why teams choose to give this long term deals that look bigger in their first year than in their last. It's funny how this mirrors Erik Karlsson's contract. He just signed 11.5M, but he came off of 7year 6.5M AAV. When Karlsson signed his deal in 2012, 6.5M AAV cap hit was equivalent to 8.2M in today's cap dollars.

 

[kevsh]

I'll go with the argument that this sends a strong message to the Ottawa players and fans that the Sens organization is committing to their young stars.

I'll add to that the relief the Sens now must feel that this is done now - nearly a year out from Chabot becoming an RFA, rather than potentially go into next Summer and go through what teams like the Flames, Avs and Lightning are facing.

If it was an overpayment (and only time will tell, of course), I think the pros of what this deal means "big picture" outweigh that significantly.

 

[KDOTO]

If you really think something is not going to happen, still "considering it" and bringing up the topic for discussion is pointlessl waste of time.

In McAvoy's and Werenski's cases any talk of "regression" is very weak. McAvoys production stayed roughly same, and Werenski actually slightly improved over his sophomore year. Never mind that they have bridge contracts, so we'd be mixing Werenski/McAvoy vs Chabot with bridge vs. long-term. Too messy to reach any sort of meaningful conclusion.

The only example of really taking a step back would be Provorov. And he is also on long-term. But using Provorov as a measuring stick backfires badly if the crowd bringing it up actually cared to think this through. With all this talk of "regression" Provorov still secured 6M cap inflation adjusted AAV, vs. 7M in Chabot's case, all the while producing at almost HALF Chabot's rate. This isn't a dig on Provorov, just pointing out that the only example where the fantasies of "regressions" and subsequent crazy discounts to be had are blown to pieces by reality.



Let me explain the concept a little. With some deviations, similar impact players tend to command certain % of the total availabe CAP space. Crosby commanded 8.7M in 2005, McDavid 12.5M in 2017, 40% more, but approximately same share of the cap. The point is, 8M cap hit today will have less Cap impact in 8-9 years. If you do the math, in terms of Cap % in the last year it will be equivalent to what 6M salary is today, or 7M average over 8years (8M in the first, 6M in the last). That's the gist of why teams choose to give this long term deals that look bigger in their first year than in their last. It's funny how this mirrors Erik Karlsson's contract. He just signed 11.5M, but he came off of 7year 6.5M AAV. When Karlsson signed his deal in 2012, 6.5M AAV cap hit was equivalent to 8.2M in today's cap dollars.

Because you have to consider it no matter how I believe it to be. Just how it works it would be dumb not too.

Also when did I say anything about regression when it comes to the other dmen. I said set backs which means in werenski case he stagnated and didn't improve significantly his 1st year to his 2ndt to his 3rd. In macavoy case, it was injuries that set him back. Prov was the only guy I mention who actually regress but if he hadn't we would be singing a different tune. Chabot could too no matter how unlikely that is.

Also why are mentioning the fact that their bridged, I used them because their 3rd year they all had a set back one way or another that forced them to go the bridge route. Nowhere was I comparing their contract to one another.

I don't know where your getting all this from because half your argument is things I've never said. I was using them to point out that if all had a very strong last season of their elc they all would be looking at contracts inlign with Chabot. The other rfa dmen played their last season and their value went down. I said you can't compare them to Chabot when comes to elc Stat and what they signed because Chabot hasn't played his yet. We can by the end of this season see statistically who was better.

As for the inflation cap thing, I figured that's what you meant but I was confused because you also used 11m as a Norris dmen salary with out its own inflation and called Chabot just that with inflation. Shouldn't it be the same for both, the Norris dmen salary would lower as well no?

 

[CokenoPepsi]

You got it.

No signing bonus?

 

[Sens]

That's too much money. NHL setting themselves up for another lockout.

The NHLPA gets 50% of revenue ... why does the nhl care how it’s divided?