Confirmed Trade: [OTT/SJS] Erik Karlsson and Francis Perron for Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, 1st, 2nd - Part III

[TomasHertlsRooster]

It's a useless metric. Do all teammates play the same amount of time with each other? No. Everything is dependent upon everything and you don't have enough data to figure out how they all relate to each other.



Terrible analogy. Duchene had a proven track record before he was traded to Ottawa. Tierney is proving he can put up points in his current situation. Maybe it's just a lucky streak but that not a guarantee. Suomela hasn't proven anything other than that he can make an NHL roster.

How on earth is it a useless metric when, over the past 11 seasons and 165 playoff series, it is equally as effective as regular season points as picking the winner of a playoff series? How can you see that fact and then keep a straight face while calling it a useless metric?

Suomela led the Finnish league in points and CF% while playing 3rd line minutes. His NHL estimated scoring rate in the Finnish league was 36 points per 82 games. I would much, much rather have a 36 point player with elite metrics than what Tierney was with the Sharks. It’s also not a terrible analogy because what Duchene did in the past had nothing to do with what Sens fans said about him in his first ~10 games with them where he went scoreless. They said “I saw Turris with us for a long time, and this new guy we have is clearly a notch above, regardless of what the points say.” They based this on what they saw of Duchene with them, rather than anything else.

Regression to the mean proved those Sens fans right when the scoring rates of Duchene and Turris normalized and it will prove Sharks fans right when Suomela and Tierney’s scoring rates normalize.

 

[Gecklund]

But how's his Corsi and PDO?

Is there even advanced stats for AHL? My biggest thing about this deal is despite Karlsson struggling everything has worked out for the Sharks. Suomela is playing better than Tierney would in the same role because of the type of player. He’s less of a playmaker which suits Donskoi much more and he’s more of a two way forward. Karlsson is looking better offensively everyday and he is already fantastic defensively. Perron is looking great in the AHL and he’s determined not to just be a throw in in the Karlsson deal.

 

[NyQuil]

They said “I saw Turris with us for a long time, and this new guy we have is clearly a notch above, regardless of what the points say.” They based this on what they saw of Duchene with them, rather than anything else.

What they didn't say is "Duchene is playing better than Turris right now."

Suomela is playing better than Tierney would in the same role because of the type of player. He’s less of a playmaker which suits Donskoi much more and he’s more of a two way forward.

Which is why Tierney is playing better than Suomela would in his role.

The amount of defensiveness in this thread is absurd.

There's 40 pages of everyone worshipping your GM and how great this deal is.

Don't worry about it, you still got Erik Karlsson no matter how many points Tierney gets in his streak.

 

[lomiller1]

Is that not the entire nature of advanced stats when you boil it right down to the basics?

No. In fact it’s just the opposite.

 

[Samsquanch]

No. In fact it’s just the opposite.

When you try to put them into context to make your point, it actually is.

 

[Gecklund]

What they didn't say is "Duchene is playing better than Turris right now."



Which is why Tierney is playing better than Suomela would in his role.

The amount of defensiveness in this thread is absurd.

There's 40 pages of everyone worshipping your GM and how great this deal is.

Don't worry about it, you still got Erik Karlsson no matter how many points Tierney gets in his streak.

I don’t get how that’s being defensive. Tierney isn’t/wasn’t great defensively with us. Suomela is better defensively with us and is a better fit with our wingers.

 

[Samsquanch]

I don’t get how that’s being defensive. Tierney isn’t/wasn’t great defensively with us. Suomela is better defensively with us and is a better fit with our wingers.

Trying to make a case for Suomela having played better than Tierney so far this year (on their own respective teams) is probably more moronic than defensive, its true. He's just being polite.

 

[Ronnie Residue]

Trying to make a case for Suomela having played better than Tierney so far this year (on their own respective teams) is probably more moronic than defensive, its true. He's just being polite.

To be fair you going on and on about a 7 game sample size is pretty moronic. I’ve seen him mostly referring to Tierneys overall career, and how the numbers point to his inevitable drop off.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Everyone here is getting too worked up, myself included.

Tierney is a good player.
Soumela is a good player.

In his multiple years with the Sharks, Tierney has been outplayed by Soumela compared to what he did in SJ.

Tierney is likely the same caliber of player on the Sens and is riding a nice scoring streak, albeit most likely attributed to some puck luck instead of some monumental gain in skill.

That is all I am trying to say.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You're trying to argue something completely different from what he took issue with.

We don't think Tierney is a first line centre. But he's producing like one in this short spell.

For you to say that Soumela has been comparably good over that span of time is a real head-scratcher.

As I said earlier, Tierney would be the top scorer on your team based on his hot streak.

I like how his PP production is being held against him. Don't you want your guys to produce on the PP?

HF sometimes.



Again, apparently we need this in bold:

1. Virtually no one is saying that Chris Tierney is a #1 centre.

2. No one knows if Tierney will keep up his pace, but based on his track record, it's very unlikely.

3. Soumela may end up being the better player beyond this span of games.

4. What has been taken issue with is that, when it comes to this small, minute and statistically insignificant number of games, to say that Tierney who would lead either team in scoring has put up a comparable performance to Soumela is debatable at best and requires some pretty "creative" arguments IMO.

5. Unlike in this thread, I don't remember Ottawa fans saying that Duchene was playing better than Turris over the course of his slump - just that they saw his potential.

I'm not sure why admitting that Tierney has had a solid handful of games is such a painful exercise.

In the meantime, people are actually arguing two different things.

LOL YES!!!

You seem to get it now. Hypothetical here, but if Sens fans were trying to argue that Matt Duchene and his 3pts in 8gp was BETTER than Turris and his 9pts in 7games, they would have been dead wrong.

YES, we could look at the advanced stats to predict how this might go in the future. Thats totally fair.

But if some moron was trying to argue that in those 7 games Duchene was a better player for his team than Turris was for his own, well you see where Im going with this (I hope)....

Sam Gagner once had 8 points in one game. Connor McDavid once went through a 10 game stretch in which he scored only 7 points. Points are an extremely random occurrence and sometimes, points over a small sample size doesn’t tell who the better player is. Logan Couture has 8 points in 8 games for the Sharks, while Erik Karlsson only has 4. There is no part of me that would suggest Couture is better than Erik Karlsson.

If you want to argue that, based on the large discrepancy in their production this season, that Tierney has been more valuable than Suomela, I can respect that. But I did not say “Suomela has been more valuable to his team than Tierney has so far”. I said “Antti Suomela is easily superior to Chris Tierney.”

If you want to suggest that a player is automatically better than another player over a certain span of games if they have a certain discrepancy in their production, I can respect that. I certainly don’t agree with it. I believe that even over the span of games where McDavid had only 7 points in 10 games, he was the better player than Sam Gagner in his 1 game where he scored 8 points. But I can respect the argument. What I don’t respect is you telling people that they have a learning disability or that they are a “dummy” because they can’t comprehend your faulty logic. You can f*** right off with that garbage.

 

[Samsquanch]

To be fair you going on and on about a 7 game sample size is pretty moronic. I’ve seen him mostly referring to Tierneys overall career, and how the numbers point to his inevitable drop off.

Dude...you know whats been happening in here, you've been posting all day and even agreed at one point. Dont try to play dumb, you know exactly what he said. Or should I go pull it up so we can all laugh at it again?

There has literally not been one Sens fan in here thats said what Tierney is doing is sustainable. No one disagrees with that logic.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Is that not the entire nature of advanced stats when you boil it right down to the basics?

Seems like it only goes one way with the stats crowd (ie when it benefits their own position).

A lot of us build up our position based on what we see from the metrics and those of us who watch 70 or more games per season tend to draw conclusions that line up with the metrics.

Before we even traded him, I wanted Tierney to be traded for whatever we could get for him, and for him to be replaced with Suomela.

 

[Ronnie Residue]

Dude...you know whats been happening in here, you've been posting all day and even agreed at one point. Dont try to play dumb, you know exactly what he said. Or should I go pull it up so we can all laugh at it again?

There has literally not been one Sens fan in here thats said what Tierney is doing is sustainable. No one disagrees with that logic.

I ageeed with you yes on the basis looking within the 7 game period alone that his points are more important than advanced numbers. But I’m pretty sure the sharks guys are arguing the advanced stats are indicative to the rest of the season and they would prefer the guy with more sustainable numbers.

 

[Ronnie Residue]

Dude...you know whats been happening in here, you've been posting all day and even agreed at one point. Dont try to play dumb, you know exactly what he said. Or should I go pull it up so we can all laugh at it again?

There has literally not been one Sens fan in here thats said what Tierney is doing is sustainable. No one disagrees with that logic.

I don’t think you guys are arguing the exact same thing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Dude...you know whats been happening in here, you've been posting all day and even agreed at one point. Dont try to play dumb, you know exactly what he said. Or should I go pull it up so we can all laugh at it again?

There has literally not been one Sens fan in here thats said what Tierney is doing is sustainable. No one disagrees with that logic.

This is “what he said”. The comment that started it all.

Chris Tierney would be the 4th line center in San Jose right now. Antti Suomela is easily superior to him.

Sean Couturier has only 3 points in 8 games. Would you seriously argue that he is not easily superior to Chris Tierney?

Steven Stamkos has only 3 points in 7 games. Would you seriously argue that he is not easily superior to Chris Tierney?

Anze Kopitar has only 2 points in 7 games. Would you seriously argue that he is not easily superior to Chris Tierney?

By your own faulty logic, somebody is a “dummy” with a “learning disability” if they suggest that any one of Steven Stamkos, Sean Coututier, or Anze Kopitar is easily superior to Chris Tierney. That should tell you just how awful your argument is.

 

[Samsquanch]

This is “what he said”. The comment that started it all.



Sean Couturier has only 3 points in 8 games. Would you seriously argue that he is not easily superior to Chris Tierney?

Steven Stamkos has only 3 points in 7 games. Would you seriously argue that he is not easily superior to Chris Tierney?

Anze Kopitar has only 2 points in 7 games. Would you seriously argue that he is not easily superior to Chris Tierney?

By your own faulty logic, somebody is a “dummy” with a “learning disability” if they suggest that any one of Steven Stamkos, Sean Coututier, or Anze Kopitar is easily superior to Chris Tierney. That should tell you just how awful your argument is.

LOL no dude, your wrong.

This is the comment that started it all (I know because Im the one who replied to it). Hopefully you humble out after this ...

Tierney. 39%, Corsi, shooting 20%, and riding a PDO of 105.9. There's absolutely no way that is even remotely sustainable.

Demelo. He's shooting at 14.3% when his career average is 2.3% and he's sporting a super insane PDO of 115.4



And yes, soumela has looked better than Tierney or at very least, comparable.

 

[Samsquanch]

I ageeed with you yes on the basis looking within the 7 game period alone that his points are more important than advanced numbers. But I’m pretty sure the sharks guys are arguing the advanced stats are indicative to the rest of the season and they would prefer the guy with more sustainable numbers.

you would be wrong. dead wrong.

they are actually arguing that he was the better player during that sample. See my frustration now?

 

[Ronnie Residue]

you would be wrong. dead wrong.

they are actually arguing that he was the better player during that sample. See my frustration now?

Yes and I understand your point if that’s the case, but let’s not act like having more points instantly makes you the better player.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

LOL no dude, your wrong.

This is the comment that started it all (I know because Im the one who replied to it). Hopefully you humble out after this ...

Do you think Tierney has been better than Couturier, Kopitar, and Stamkos this season?

 

[Samsquanch]

Do you think Tierney has been better than Couturier, Kopitar, and Stamkos this season?

Back peddling now I see..

Yes, Tierney over the 7 games has been better than those players. Easily.

Just like Chabot and Lajoie have been better than Karlsson to start the season. If the season ended tomorrow, you could not logically argue those guys did better than the Sens players.

Now find me a post where any Sens fan said that Tierney is the better player going forward (hint; you wont find it),

 

[Samsquanch]

Yes and I understand your point if that’s the case, but let’s not act like having more points instantly makes you the better player.

No, but in our case today (9pts to 3pts) it does.

 

[Masked]

How on earth is it a useless metric when, over the past 11 seasons and 165 playoff series, it is equally as effective as regular season points as picking the winner of a playoff series? How can you see that fact and then keep a straight face while calling it a useless metric?

Suomela led the Finnish league in points and CF% while playing 3rd line minutes. His NHL estimated scoring rate in the Finnish league was 36 points per 82 games. I would much, much rather have a 36 point player with elite metrics than what Tierney was with the Sharks.

It's a useless metric when it is only slightly better than flipping a coin. With the exception of some first round match ups with division leaders, the NHL is very close among teams in the Cap era. The points a team finishes with is not always indicative of how good they are. Injuries happens, backup goalies play lousy, young players improve over the course of the year, some teams schedules are more difficult than others, trades get made, etc. Regular season points are not a reliable way to predict playoff winners and neither are the silly stats.

I also don't care what his silly stat NHL conversion rates are. They prove nothing.

It’s also not a terrible analogy because what Duchene did in the past had nothing to do with what Sens fans said about him in his first ~10 games with them where he went scoreless. They said “I saw Turris with us for a long time, and this new guy we have is clearly a notch above, regardless of what the points say.” They based this on what they saw of Duchene with them, rather than anything else.

Regression to the mean proved those Sens fans right when the scoring rates of Duchene and Turris normalized and it will prove Sharks fans right when Suomela and Tierney’s scoring rates normalize.

Suomela has no mean. He doesn't have an NHL track record to normalize to. I don't understand how you can compare an obscure undrafted rookie to a 10 year veteran who has been lauded as a great player since his teens.

 

[Masked]

Yes, Tierney over the 7 games has been better than those players. Easily.

He's also been better than Gretzky and Lemieux combined this season.

 

[Samsquanch]

He's also been better than Gretzky and Lemieux combined this season.

If those guys only scored a combined 3pts over 8 games, you might have a point..

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I hated the trade at the time, but Tierney is quickly changing my mind. He's my 3rd favorite Sens player to watch after Stone and Chabot. I just love guys with high hockey IQ and he has a ton. He knows where other guys are on the ice and where to go. Is his points sustainable? He's on pace for 105 points right now, so obviously not. But if he stays on a line with Stone he should put up 60 points. Demelo has been solid but he's nothing special. He's looked good mainly because he's been paired with Chabot and have kept things simple.

Just one comment to SJ fans, players change in different roles. William Karlsson also played 200 games being labeled as a 3rd line center and then broke out once given a top 6 role. Tierney's shot and skating isnt as good as William Karlsson's so he wont be as good but Tierney is playing with a ton of confidence right and its been a ton of fun watching him break out.