Post-Game Talk: Oilers Saving Time

[AddyTheWrath]

Are we really arguing Skinner vs Campbell right now?

Be serious guys

 

[guymez]

Everyone knows what Pickard is. He's a 31 year old career fringe goalie who is having a decent go as a backup this year.

100%.
I hope his success continues until the end of this season at least.

 

[Kinibo]

Everyone knows what Pickard is. He's a 31 year old career fringe goalie who is having a decent go as a backup this year.

This is the big question for me. It's fair to say that Pickard's performance and stats this year don't really match what you'd expect from a goalie who had 116 career starts over 9 seasons coming into this one. So what do we really have here? Has he finally, at age 31 and on his 6th team, developed into a reliable goalie, or is he just on a streak? Either we put this question to the test during the playoffs, or we depend on Skinner to carry the entire load right to the end. Both options leave me nervous.

 

[GOilers88]

This is the big question for me. It's fair to say that Pickard's performance and stats this year don't really match what you'd expect from a goalie who had 116 career starts over 9 seasons coming into this one. So what do we really have here? Has he finally, at age 31 and on his 6th team, developed into a reliable goalie, or is he just on a streak? Either we put this question to the test during the playoffs, or we depend on Skinner to carry the entire load right to the end. Both options leave me nervous.

Having a decent vet behind him with some actual sustained success is what he needs. But here we are, gotta hope Pickard holds up

 

[Broberg Speed]

Jack Campbell stopping 31 of 32 shots tonight including several point blank opportunities from the slot for a 0.969 SV% on the night and first star of the game.

0.917 SV% on the season

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Talbot had an actual residency as backup in NY behind a great goalie. This meant two things. it meant he got to study the best, but also meant it would take longer to get as many starts and that he wouldn't get to be a starter there. But Talbot became a better goalie because of it.

Skinner had no such adversity here. He had to wait for the team to retire Smith and beat out Campbell. Campbell was his one obstacle. Due to an org mishandling the goalie file almost constantly. The reason Sather was kind enough to essentially gift his old club Talbot was DUE to how exposed we were in goal.

The difference in the thread is some people are going by mostly visual reads of Skinners skill in net, and others are going on some kind of numbers. The trouble with evaluating goalies specifically on numbers is that they are very much team metrics. If you do have a good goalie its common for them to separate from backups statistically. For instance like is the case with Demko in Vancouver.

We've raised this with you before but "trending upwards" is sheer fabrication. Especially in purview of something like goaltending where paths are rarely linear.

Yes the Oilers would be potentially in a world of hurt without Skinner. But the org gave Mike Smith ample times to resurrect and get his game back. The org didn't give Campbell that time or patience, or not to the extent.

Talbot is how development is supposed to work. Onboard NHL level as a back-up and grow your confidence and game over reasonable time against the game's apex competition.

Edmonton is the opposite of how goaltender development should work. Bring in a $25 million free agent to drive #1 goaltender duties during a razor fine winning window and have that expectation collapse in less than 40 goals and be forced to throw a mid-level homegrown prospect into the fire of an expectant ownership, management, team, and fanbase. Skinner had immense adversity to backstop a team when its heralded big money free agent goaltender, the last piece of a Cup contender wanna-be, had to be put on extended sabbatical to rebuild all elements of his imploded game, technique, equipment, and most alarmingly, a fragile mental state that was leaking into his public media interviews.

I'm not sure who is the 'we' that raised anything with me. Trending upwards is pretty obvious from the start of this season to all of the goaltending measures behind a team that's been fire since the newest, new coach was installed. I'm actually amazed Skinner has succeeded as well as he has - I was a skeptic of his upside. But he's given this team the average goaltending it sought to be competitive and more. I've been pragmatic about the risk of this team entering the playoff with likely the youngest, most inexperienced goaltender and wanted a top 4RD upgrade and hard 3C as priority upgrades to fortify the team defense in front of him, mirroring Vegas' success model.

Smith is not Jack Campbell. Smith played 670 NHL games over a fifteen year career with another 45 playoff games. His mental strength kept him in the league until his late thirties. Jack Campbell has played 176 NHL games in over a decade including several extended walks in the desert of minor pro trying to find his game and self belief. They are not at all alike and with Smith's powerful confidence and leadership it is really self-evident why the goaltending poor and cap poor Oilers would look to a healthy Smith to lead them into the playoffs.

I've stated I think Campbell will be up when the playoff starts. And that I think his teammates haven't given up on him, nor possibly Holland either who is good with player communication. Though his past suggests its hard to predict what Jack Campbell you'll get, he's still an asset that might be needed if Skinner and the Oilers team defense struggle in the playoffs.

All said Skinner's earned respect for stepping up when the #1 big money investment player broke down under the weight of this organization and fanbase's decade of disaster.

 

[bucks_oil]

I've said this before in our discussions. I fully appreciate your technical knowledge of the position since I freely admit I have none when it comes to goaltending.

Your bolded paragraph really strikes home for me. With goal scorers or passers or maybe to a lesser deegree defensers, it is far more obvious when and how a player succeeds or fails. But with goalies the fact that the difference between a Vezina candidate and replacement level player is basically the outcome of 5 shots in 200 makes those surprise saves incredibly consequential. This is a point I have tried to make but have never really succeeded. For all of the variables that come into play some guys just stop more pucks consistently that others just might not.

Yeah...

To your second paragraph.

First point: "not to me or any other goalie, and perhaps a few coaches, GMs, ex defensemen etc". Some people are just better equipped to understand those nuances (and the razor thin margin between savable or not) since they played the position or played/interacted close enough to the defensive side of the game, for long enough, to learn the difference. Many goalies will be quite transparent with their teammates about the how and why a puck went in the net or didn't. If you ever got a paddle tap in the backside, you know.

Second point: trying to talk your language. Given all of the multi-variant analysis that goes into "savable or not", then it stands to reason that, yes, as X reaches a large sample size there will be a visible AND VALID difference between those goalies. My point has always been that with smaller sample sizes then a regression analysis must be performed to be sure. Most obvious variable of course being different teams and different team defense - which to my earlier point, can't easily be measured by HDSC in its current form.

 

[Soundwave]

This is the big question for me. It's fair to say that Pickard's performance and stats this year don't really match what you'd expect from a goalie who had 116 career starts over 9 seasons coming into this one. So what do we really have here? Has he finally, at age 31 and on his 6th team, developed into a reliable goalie, or is he just on a streak? Either we put this question to the test during the playoffs, or we depend on Skinner to carry the entire load right to the end. Both options leave me nervous.

Play Pickard on Saturday against Colorado. I'd play him tonight too. Sink or swim.

 

[McShogun99]

I still think we should give Campbell a chance under the new coaching staff. Realistically it's not going to happen though.

 

[oXo Cube]

Good lord I cannot wait for Campbell to be bought out this summer so that this board can stop talking about him.

What the hell is this thread?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Good lord I cannot wait for Campbell to be bought out this summer so that this board can stop talking about him.

What the hell is this thread?

Pure, uncut copium

 

[MessierII]

I still think we should give Campbell a chance under the new coaching staff. Realistically it's not going to happen though.

Pickard has been to good to warrant it.

 

[bucks_oil]

Jack Campbell stopping 31 of 32 shots tonight including several point blank opportunities from the slot for a 0.969 SV% on the night and first star of the game.

0.917 SV% on the season

He's gotta get the call in the final 10 games of the season.

Honestly he'd be back up already (and this is no slight on Pickard), but we don't have the cap space. Once we get closer to the end of the season, our saved $$$ will be a more known quantity, so we can spend a few bucks to pull him up for an audition for the backup.

Just for emphasis: we effectively benched Campbell for the year, based on 5 games during a streak where BOTH of our goalies were terrible. Campbell rocked an 0.873, but Skinner rocked an 0.853 during that same period when we hit rock bottom vs SJ.

Per my earlier posts on the topic, I don't think either of those SPCT were an accurate reflection of the goalies... and the brass agreed, or else they would not have fired Woodcroft. So if the issue was part coaching and part the entire team pooping the bed, why did one of our underperforming goalies get a chance to right himself and the other guy did not?

The answer is quite simple: salary and waiver risk initially, and salary cap ever since then. Not performance (at least after Campbell's initial and completely understandable crisis of confidence in the AHL).

 

[Arpeggio]

I mean it certainly seems like Campbell has found something, I wouldn't be opposed to him getting a game or two.

 

[WaitingForUser]

He's gotta get the call in the final 10 games of the season.

Honestly he'd be back up already (and this is no slight on Pickard), but we don't have the cap space. Once we get closer to the end of the season, our saved $$$ will be a more known quantity, so we can spend a few bucks to pull him up for an audition for the backup.

Just for emphasis: we effectively benched Campbell for the year, based on 5 games during a streak where BOTH of our goalies were terrible. Campbell rocked an 0.873, but Skinner rocked an 0.853 during that same period when we hit rock bottom vs SJ.

Per my earlier posts on the topic, I don't think either of those SPCT were an accurate reflection of the goalies... and the brass agreed, or else they would not have fired Woodcroft. So if the issue was part coaching and part the entire team pooping the bed, why did one of our underperforming goalies get a chance to right himself and the other guy did not?

The answer is quite simple: salary and waiver risk initially, and salary cap ever since then. Not performance (at least after Campbell's initial and completely understandable crisis of confidence in the AHL).

He can’t be recalled we don’t have the cap space. He will be on the black aces for the playoffs. I realize cap space accrues but we need to save as much as we can for the Brown bonus

 

[bucks_oil]

He can’t be recalled we don’t have the cap space. He will be on the black aces for the playoffs. I realize cap space accrues but we need to save as much as we can for the Brown bonus

If we are going to give him a chance to reclaim the backup spot (which I think we should given his body of work), then we need to spend $29K per game to see if he's even an option.

It's fine to say he's a black ace, but you can't throw him in there (if necessary) with zero NHL games in the last 6 months.

Edit: I posted it a few pages back, but we have $260K-ish in unspent cap. It's really rounding error vs Brown's bonus, I'd rather spend a bit of it to have a legit NHL-experienced backup at least as an option. PIckard has been fine, but to say he's earned his stripes in 14 games vs the previous 30 games over 5 seasons where he couldn't stop a beachball is shortsighted at best.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Talbot is how development is supposed to work. Onboard NHL level as a back-up and grow your confidence and game over reasonable time against the game's apex competition.

Edmonton is the opposite of how goaltender development should work. Bring in a $25 million free agent to drive #1 goaltender duties during a razor fine winning window and have that expectation collapse in less than 40 goals and be forced to throw a mid-level homegrown prospect into the fire of an expectant ownership, management, team, and fanbase. Skinner had immense adversity to backstop a team when its heralded big money free agent goaltender, the last piece of a Cup contender wanna-be, had to be put on extended sabbatical to rebuild all elements of his imploded game, technique, equipment, and most alarmingly, a fragile mental state that was leaking into his public media interviews.

I'm not sure who is the 'we' that raised anything with me. Trending upwards is pretty obvious from the start of this season to all of the goaltending measures behind a team that's been fire since the newest, new coach was installed. I'm actually amazed Skinner has succeeded as well as he has - I was a skeptic of his upside. But he's given this team the average goaltending it sought to be competitive and more. I've been pragmatic about the risk of this team entering the playoff with likely the youngest, most inexperienced goaltender and wanted a top 4RD upgrade and hard 3C as priority upgrades to fortify the team defense in front of him, mirroring Vegas' success model.

Smith is not Jack Campbell. Smith played 670 NHL games over a fifteen year career with another 45 playoff games. His mental strength kept him in the league until his late thirties. Jack Campbell has played 176 NHL games in over a decade including several extended walks in the desert of minor pro trying to find his game and self belief. They are not at all alike and with Smith's powerful confidence and leadership it is really self-evident why the goaltending poor and cap poor Oilers would look to a healthy Smith to lead them into the playoffs.

I've stated I think Campbell will be up when the playoff starts. And that I think his teammates haven't given up on him, nor possibly Holland either who is good with player communication. Though his past suggests its hard to predict what Jack Campbell you'll get, he's still an asset that might be needed if Skinner and the Oilers team defense struggle in the playoffs.

All said Skinner's earned respect for stepping up when the #1 big money investment player broke down under the weight of this organization and fanbase's decade of disaster.

What I raised mutliple times before is that applied to analyzing sporting events or data that "trending upwards"" is basically just a presumptive construct. i.e. if we knew what the forward was, if sports was entirely predictable like a steady linear relationship then results would be known beforehand and there would be no suspense and less reason to watch. For instance imagine if sports was so predictable that the Trending forward "dallas stars" (I'm just picking a team out of a hat) were so clearly trending upwards. so clearly that it would be forecast, and accurate, that they would win it all months in advance. Sports isn't like that and few things can be deduced to just "trending upwards" In sports more the thing is that certain events or progress occurs until it doesn't, at which point it hits a wall.

Maybe I'm not explaining this well but I just find the term to be empty and inaccurate applied to pro sports because we don't know the future results to even conclude something is "trending upward" If we could do that we could also buy lottery tickets and make a lot of money.

I certainly get that posters can feel fortunate that Skinner has stepped up. But the other side of that is the hockey world has more than a few retread goalies that can step up to a degree. Just last playoffs Korpisalo, who the Kings basically got easily just stepped up and improved their goaltending. Of course not premium goaltending but a sufficient improvement that was easily had and that settled what had been very questionable Kings goaltending. Pickard is such an example. We got him, lets use him. He hasn't shown kinks yet. Why not experiment. The defacto argument some are making that Pickard ain't much because he's never been a starter is circular reasoning. The paradigm is only that no team gave him that chance. On everything I see the goalie himself is good and has no obvious holes.

I'm still uncomfortable with going status quo in playoffs on the goaltending file and I do not think the org will entertain serious consideration of either Pickard or Campbell starting any playoff games. Seems like they'll run strictly with Skinner once again. (or I'm being negative thinking that) heh

 

[nally]

And this reasoning is why I think Holland had a very tepid deadline. He’s going to be the outgoing GM, Jackson probably held the reigns so the newcomer doesn’t have as much of a Chiarelli-esque mess to mop up, although his work is cut out for him as is.

Prospect pool ranking is dead last

 

[mcdingdong]

What I raised mutliple times before is that applied to analyzing sporting events or data that "trending upwards"" is basically just a presumptive construct. i.e. if we knew what the forward was, if sports was entirely predictable like a steady linear relationship then results would be known beforehand and there would be no suspense and less reason to watch. For instance imagine if sports was so predictable that the Trending forward "dallas stars" (I'm just picking a team out of a hat) were so clearly trending upwards. so clearly that it would be forecast, and accurate, that they would win it all months in advance. Sports isn't like that and few things can be deduced to just "trending upwards" In sports more the thing is that certain events or progress occurs until it doesn't, at which point it hits a wall.

Maybe I'm not explaining this well but I just find the term to be empty and inaccurate applied to pro sports because we don't know the future results to even conclude something is "trending upward" If we could do that we could also buy lottery tickets and make a lot of money.

I certainly get that posters can feel fortunate that Skinner has stepped up. But the other side of that is the hockey world has more than a few retread goalies that can step up to a degree. Just last playoffs Korpisalo, who the Kings basically got easily just stepped up and improved their goaltending. Of course not premium goaltending but a sufficient improvement that was easily had and that settled what had been very questionable Kings goaltending. Pickard is such an example. We got him, lets use him. He hasn't shown kinks yet. Why not experiment. The defacto argument some are making that Pickard ain't much because he's never been a starter is circular reasoning. The paradigm is only that no team gave him that chance. On everything I see the goalie himself is good and has no obvious holes.

I'm still uncomfortable with going status quo in playoffs on the goaltending file and I do not think the org will entertain serious consideration of either Pickard or Campbell starting any playoff games. Seems like they'll run strictly with Skinner once again. (or I'm being negative thinking that) heh

By your own reasoning, and I can recall you stating this many times over the previous weeks, goalies do not significantly improve with age. How then do we justify giving additional playing time to a goalie who has worn out his welcome in multiple spots with fairly poor stats, just because he's had his first decent run of success in years? Just playing devil's advocate here.

Edit: the only reasoning that makes sense to me is to get Skinner more rest down the stretch, and hope that Pickard remains serviceable in the backup position (as he certainly has been to date but is no guarantee).

 

[Drivesaitl]

By your own reasoning, and I can recall you stating this many times over the previous weeks, goalies do not significantly improve with age. How then do we justify giving additional playing time to a goalie who has worn out his welcome in multiple spots with fairly poor stats, just because he's had his first decent run of success in years? Just playing devil's advocate here.

Edit: the only reasoning that makes sense to me is to get Skinner more rest down the stretch, and hope that Pickard remains serviceable in the backup position (as he certainly has been to date but is no guarantee).

I can see the confusion on that. My own take is its probably Pickard always had the package, and had the skills developed for many years and is now only getting the chance to display it. If he's even getting the chance now.

The NHL is full of stories like that. Consider say years ago Joe Murphy being turfed by Detroit. They thought he was garbage. Oilers picked him up and won a SC with him playing a solid role and was among the best players on the Oilers loaded club for multiple years.

This is the way of the world. For one reason or another some get the shot, some don't, and its often not on the basis of ability or skill. People think of the NHL as some perfect world with perfect deisisons. Far from it. Teams like Vegas can just enter the league and pick out players that are not being valued for whatever reason, and win a SC largely with those players.

Theres always gold around that other teams have thrown on the junk pile. Generally the NHL is among the poorest run big leagues. A lot of managers don't have a clue.

 

[mcdingdong]

I can see the confusion on that. My own take is its probably Pickard always had the package, and had the skills developed for many years and is now only getting the chance to display it. If he's even getting the chance now.

The NHL is full of stories like that. Consider say years ago Joe Murphy being turfed by Detroit. They thought he was garbage. Oilers picked him up and won a SC with him playing a solid role and was among the best players on the Oilers loaded club for multiple years.

This is the way of the world. For one reason or another some get the shot, some don't, and its often not on the basis of ability or skill. People think of the NHL as some perfect world with perfect deisisons. Far from it. Teams like Vegas can just enter the league and pick out players that are not being valued for whatever reason, and win a SC largely with those players.

Theres always gold around that other teams have thrown on the junk pile. Generally the NHL is among the poorest run big leagues. A lot of managers don't have a clue.

I can certainly agree with your last sentence!
One minor point of contention with your post would be the Vegas comments. I don't really think they "moneyballed" it by identifying undervalued players; rather, I think they weaponized cap space via entering the league with a clean slate, whereas most other teams were already significantly constrained by cap considerations. They also continue to weaponize cap space via other, more dubious means but that is another discussion.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I agree with most of the above and I didn't want to castigate the current team/club - rather our historical issues. Like you I think there has been a huge improvement in this regard, even going back to last year (to your point not coincidentally Ekholm's arrival).

I'm also ok getting a little "slower" provided it comes with veteran savvy about how the game is ACTUALLY played and won. What's still amazing to me about this game is that as a kid (or perhaps more appropriately as a parent watching your kids where there are 30 breakaways per game) you realize just how important the really basic, basic fundamentals are: getting the puck out at the blue line, keeping the puck in at the blue line, skating back (all of you!) to help in layers... and then kids learn more exciting things like raising the puck, slappers, dangles, cellys' and forget about so much of the rest until they are in their late twenties, wondering why they haven't won the big prize...

I think we are learning (re-learning) those things, but man-o-man, that first 12 games of the season was a horror-show of poor team play.

And to your point, it's a real shame that Campbell took the blame for that. Unfortunately there is no option to bring him up at this moment. We have $226K of projected cap space left at the end of the year. Campbell costs us $29,762 per day that he's on the roster... that means we could spend a bit of our money at the end of the year to get him 2-3 games in, but we can't do much more than that.

Thanks. Always interesting to get your feedback on the goalie file. I wasn't sure you would agree with my take on the Campbell circumstance. It is unfortunate and I don't see a lot of precedent for treating an established vet goalie in this manner. Campbell to this point has been essentially banished to the AHL, and I understand the cap implications. Unlike you I would be surprised if the club does bring him back at all.
I'll go step further, in that I was also stating that the 4 starts were by no means reasonable time frame for evaluating Campbell acuity or readiness. It almost seems like it was already decided. That the Oilers would go a different way. Campbell in no way got a legitimate shot here this season.

Agree of course that Campbell not having had the benefit of the new coaching here means that we do not know how well he could perform given our present and improved defensive play and structure.

As to the fundamentals, learning the game, the right way to play etc its sad that on the broadcasts no present day Howie Meeker really exists. I find todays break down of plays not always helpful, and not always very involved. Good coaches or analysts help people see plays that ought to have occurred vs did occur.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I can certainly agree with your last sentence!
One minor point of contention with your post would be the Vegas comments. I don't really think they "moneyballed" it by identifying undervalued players; rather, I think they weaponized cap space via entering the league with a clean slate, whereas most other teams were already significantly constrained by cap considerations. They also continue to weaponize cap space via other, more dubious means but that is another discussion.

Sure they weaponized cap space but the teams had ample numbers in who they could protect. Multiple teams erred in their own lists, left players out that were actually more valuable, and Vegas fairly astutely detected the better players left off lists, which in many cases should not have been left on the table.

My take is that if every club had actually protected their better players then Vegas wouldn't have been able to build the core they did. From the outset.

But I see your point too and to wit the Oilers weaponized in the same way acquiring the 2005 team.

 

[GOilers88]

What I raised mutliple times before is that applied to analyzing sporting events or data that "trending upwards"" is basically just a presumptive construct. i.e. if we knew what the forward was, if sports was entirely predictable like a steady linear relationship then results would be known beforehand and there would be no suspense and less reason to watch. For instance imagine if sports was so predictable that the Trending forward "dallas stars" (I'm just picking a team out of a hat) were so clearly trending upwards. so clearly that it would be forecast, and accurate, that they would win it all months in advance. Sports isn't like that and few things can be deduced to just "trending upwards" In sports more the thing is that certain events or progress occurs until it doesn't, at which point it hits a wall.

Maybe I'm not explaining this well but I just find the term to be empty and inaccurate applied to pro sports because we don't know the future results to even conclude something is "trending upward" If we could do that we could also buy lottery tickets and make a lot of money.

I certainly get that posters can feel fortunate that Skinner has stepped up. But the other side of that is the hockey world has more than a few retread goalies that can step up to a degree. Just last playoffs Korpisalo, who the Kings basically got easily just stepped up and improved their goaltending. Of course not premium goaltending but a sufficient improvement that was easily had and that settled what had been very questionable Kings goaltending. Pickard is such an example. We got him, lets use him. He hasn't shown kinks yet. Why not experiment. The defacto argument some are making that Pickard ain't much because he's never been a starter is circular reasoning. The paradigm is only that no team gave him that chance. On everything I see the goalie himself is good and has no obvious holes.

I'm still uncomfortable with going status quo in playoffs on the goaltending file and I do not think the org will entertain serious consideration of either Pickard or Campbell starting any playoff games. Seems like they'll run strictly with Skinner once again. (or I'm being negative thinking that) heh

If a guy is cut out for it and has the ability to be a stable goaltender in the NHL, chances are it's highly likely someone sees it after 10 years in and around the league. I think it's pretty suspect to chalk it up to multiple teams just not giving him a chance. He had one good year in Colorado and was unable to sustain it and thus bounced around the league as a fringe guy. Seems sort of like saying Nail Yakupov wasnt given a fair chance.

 

[Drivesaitl]

If a guy is cut out for it and has the ability to be a stable goaltender in the NHL, chances are it's highly likely someone sees it after 10 years in and around the league. I think it's pretty suspect to chalk it up to multiple teams just not giving him a chance. He had one good year in Colorado and was unable to sustain it and thus bounced around the league as a fringe guy. Seems sort of like saying Nail Yakupov wasnt given a fair chance.

If the NHL was a competently run league I would agree with you. But following this league for near 60yrs gives other impressions. Found gold is all over the place.

Worse the NHL is often like a hive mind. One team decisions on a player and then the word gets around and the take on the player becomes accepted dogma instead of individual and better analysis taking place.

Third, the goalie file particularly is haphazard in that only 2 goalies for any org are in the lineup. So that its a given in that one spot that if teams have depth at the spot that one or more goalies can be left out in the cold. If I'm an NHL team I'm specifically looking for goalies that fell off the cart of premium goalie loaded clubs.

Lastly a strong NHL dynamic exists where the probability of a player not landing anywhere, or having dificulty landing is if the drafting club moves on from the player. Its common enough the death of opportunity. Which is unfortunate as several member teams in NHL have poor evaluation of their own players. NHL far from perfect. Bias exist, preferences exist etc.