Toggle sidebar

OHL Trades 2016-17 Season Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

MDR30

Registered User
Feb 14, 2016
16
0
Back to the goalie market for a second, hearing nothing out of Kingston but I would think that the Fronts and Gilmour might at least look into acquiring a backup for Helvig. There's always the chance they promote from within but their options are pretty bare....

Brendan McGlynn played the last few years in the OJHL with Oakville and put up solid numbers

Zach Springer was a backup with the OJHL Kingston Voyageurs last year and although he's shown flashes of potential, I really don't think he's ready to be a backup in the OHL, much a starter in the OJ.

One of the last internal options is 2016 draftee Christian Mattiace. Haven't seen the kid but considering he wasn't drafted in the higher rounds, I'm thinking he needs some development in Junior A/B before making the jump.

Thoughts?
 

Petes

Registered User
Jun 23, 2014
3,690
1,260
MDR30 said:
Back to the goalie market for a second, hearing nothing out of Kingston but I would think that the Fronts and Gilmour might at least look into acquiring a backup for Helvig. There's always the chance they promote from within but their options are pretty bare....

Brendan McGlynn played the last few years in the OJHL with Oakville and put up solid numbers

Zach Springer was a backup with the OJHL Kingston Voyageurs last year and although he's shown flashes of potential, I really don't think he's ready to be a backup in the OHL, much a starter in the OJ.

One of the last internal options is 2016 draftee Christian Mattiace. Haven't seen the kid but considering he wasn't drafted in the higher rounds, I'm thinking he needs some development in Junior A/B before making the jump.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Some names that come to mind... Troy Timpano, Bradley Van Shubert and Connor Hicks.
 

BigBuck

Registered User
Jan 26, 2012
844
41
MDR30 said:
Back to the goalie market for a second, hearing nothing out of Kingston but I would think that the Fronts and Gilmour might at least look into acquiring a backup for Helvig. There's always the chance they promote from within but their options are pretty bare....

Brendan McGlynn played the last few years in the OJHL with Oakville and put up solid numbers

Zach Springer was a backup with the OJHL Kingston Voyageurs last year and although he's shown flashes of potential, I really don't think he's ready to be a backup in the OHL, much a starter in the OJ.

One of the last internal options is 2016 draftee Christian Mattiace. Haven't seen the kid but considering he wasn't drafted in the higher rounds, I'm thinking he needs some development in Junior A/B before making the jump.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Kingston also has Zach Moore and Mario Peccia signed.....
 

MDR30

Registered User
Feb 14, 2016
16
0
Petes said:
Some names that come to mind... Troy Timpano, Bradley Van Shubert and Connor Hicks.
Click to expand...

Timpano is an intriguing option, liked what I saw from him last year. That would be one awesome 1-2 punch in Helvig (assuming he takes from where he left off last year) and Timpano next year!
 

MDR30

Registered User
Feb 14, 2016
16
0
BigBuck said:
Kingston also has Zach Moore and Mario Peccia signed.....
Click to expand...

Yep, I only listed who I felt the best options were. I don't think Peccia is ready just yet partly because he spent last season in AAA. Moore hasn't really played starter minutes yet so I'm not sure he's ready to make the jump yet. However, they're both 6'2" so they've got the size to fit right in.

This will definitely be an interesting storyline to follow throughout training camp and the off-season.
 

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa
Technical value of draft picks, Forwards and Defense

I have updated my initial experimental analysis to include all skaters (not goalies yet) from the 2007 through to 2011 drafts and their entire OHL careers. The methodology is as described below. Some notes:
- A total of 874 forwards and 487 defensemen were analysed.
- Very remarkably, there was effectively no statistical PPG difference in the performance of the five season cohorts of 138 forwards playing more than 100 OHL career games that were drafted in rounds 2 through 5. Each round-cohort ranged between an average of .51 to .57 PPG with a standard deviation of between .26 and .28 PPG.
- The only relevant value difference between pick in rounds 2 through 5 is the declining probability that a forward picked in a later round would make roster and exceed 100 career games. 79% of round 2 forward picks exceeded 100 OHL career games and 42% of round 5 picks exceed 100 GP.
- I realize that PPG is an very incomplete performance metric for defensemen but I do not have anything else I can easily use. Be that as it may, it is a relevant metric that also somewhat reflects player time on ice and power play utilization, in addition to just point production.
- The average PPG and standard deviation for defensemen were also consistent for cohorts drafted in rounds 3 to 5, however 2nd round defensemen were markedly stronger and very close to the value of first round defense picks.

Again, I'd appreciate and suggestions to improve this analysis. I'd also like to know what minimum threshold of goaltender games played would indicate the value of their picks. Provisionally, I am looking at metrics like a minimum of 2 seasons, 40 games played and no less than 20 games per year.



sfan said:
I’ve been curious about the value of picks in trades. Obviously, the first rule of value is that in any specific transaction it is determined by the price that a seller and buyer agree upon. Both may have specific reasons (asset needs or surplus) to go above or below a technical value. Furthermore, players have differing intangible skills or weaknesses that can affect their trade value.

This said, it seems to me that future picks should have a pretty straight-forward technical value based on the probability that a given pick in a given round results in a roster worthy productive player. I will limit this exercise to forwards, perhaps the easiest position to assess with simple stats. Here is the approach I took:

  1. Scraped data from the 2008, '09 and '10 OHL drafts (this allowed me to examine stats from their entire OHL career)
  2. Identified, by round, the forwards drafted then the subset of forwards that had OHL careers more than 100 games
  3. Aggregated their total points, games, and points per game

A summary of the data can be downloaded below (PDF; login required).

With this limited data set, here is what the numbers roughly tell in terms of the value of a pick:
  • About 100% of first rounders have full OHL careers with .85 points per game
  • About 2/3rds of second and third rounders become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .6 pts per game
  • About 1/3rd of fourth and fifth rounders become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .5 pts per game
  • About 1/5th of players drafted after the 6th round become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .5 pts per game

Additional notes and comments:
  • More years need to be analyzed as the sample size for 4th and 5th rounders is rather small.
  • People smarter than me could characterize the performance variation among players drafted within 'round cohorts'. Looking at the player details visually the difference is substantial.
  • The average PPG performance difference between many 1st and 4th rounders was not that great, yet it is subjectively evident that most first rounders get substantially higher quality and quantity of time on ice. How much of this PPG delta is attributable skill and how much is context?
  • Would a comparable analysis for defenders (games played and PPG) be similarly relevant?
  • Evaluating goalies would be more of a hassle as the data can't be as easily scraped with my limited manual skills.

Any comments, questions, suggestions?
Click to expand...
 

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa
Ryan Yessie (@RyanHPscout) tweeted at 9:54 AM on Wed, Jun 29, 2016:
London Knights trade D Aidan Jamieson to the Sudbury Wolves for essentially three conditional picks.
 
MJ5

MJ5

Targeted Poster
Sponsor
Apr 5, 2016
2,123
1,748
Flint
Flint receives Generals’ defenseman Jalen Smereck for Oshawa’s fourth-round pick in the 2017 OHL Priority Selection, Mississauga’s second-round selection in the 2018 OHL Priority Selection and Flint’s fourth-round selection in the 2019 OHL Priority Selection.
 

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa
Can anyone here explain why the OHL media notes page describes June 29th trade where Aiden Jamieson goes to Sudbury for (only) "SBY 15 2017*"...

... Whereas in the press there was more than one conditional pick, specifically:

The trade, announced Wednesday, will send Jamieson up north in a deal that will net the Knights several picks – though all are conditional on the Wolves’ ability to have Jamieson in their lineup.

Here are the picks, and the conditions attached:

*London gets Sudbury’s 15th-round pick in 2017, though that becomes a 9th-round pick if Jamieson shows up at the Wolves training camp this fall.

*London will get Sudbury's 3rd-round 2017 pick if Jamieson plays in one exhibition for the Wolves this fall.

*London will get Sudbury’s 2nd-round pick in 2020 if Jamieson plays one regular season game with the Wolves this season.​
 
aresknights

aresknights

Registered User
Dec 27, 2009
12,703
5,450
london
sfan said:
Can anyone here explain why the OHL media notes page describes June 29th trade where Aiden Jamieson goes to Sudbury for (only) "SBY 15 2017*"...

... Whereas in the press there was more than one conditional pick, specifically:

The trade, announced Wednesday, will send Jamieson up north in a deal that will net the Knights several picks – though all are conditional on the Wolves’ ability to have Jamieson in their lineup.

Here are the picks, and the conditions attached:

*London gets Sudbury’s 15th-round pick in 2017, though that becomes a 9th-round pick if Jamieson shows up at the Wolves training camp this fall.

*London will get Sudbury's 3rd-round 2017 pick if Jamieson plays in one exhibition for the Wolves this fall.

*London will get Sudbury’s 2nd-round pick in 2020 if Jamieson plays one regular season game with the Wolves this season.​
Click to expand...


My guess is until the conditions are meet the picks dont show on website?
 

rhinomark50

Registered User
Aug 22, 2014
68
0
sfan said:
Can anyone here explain why the OHL media notes page describes June 29th trade where Aiden Jamieson goes to Sudbury for (only) "SBY 15 2017*"...

... Whereas in the press there was more than one conditional pick, specifically:

The trade, announced Wednesday, will send Jamieson up north in a deal that will net the Knights several picks – though all are conditional on the Wolves’ ability to have Jamieson in their lineup.

Here are the picks, and the conditions attached:

*London gets Sudbury’s 15th-round pick in 2017, though that becomes a 9th-round pick if Jamieson shows up at the Wolves training camp this fall.

*London will get Sudbury's 3rd-round 2017 pick if Jamieson plays in one exhibition for the Wolves this fall.

*London will get Sudbury’s 2nd-round pick in 2020 if Jamieson plays one regular season game with the Wolves this season.​
Click to expand...

I would imagine because it's only one conditional pick and London will get a 15th or a 9th or a 3rd or a 2nd. If there was more then one pick going back they'd have to give up more conditional picks I believe.
 

dirty12

Registered User
Mar 6, 2015
9,241
3,872
rhinomark50 said:
I would imagine because it's only one conditional pick and London will get a 15th or a 9th or a 3rd or a 2nd. If there was more then one pick going back they'd have to give up more conditional picks I believe.
Click to expand...

That is how I read it. Several others read it as 9, 3, & 2 if all conditions are met.
 

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa
sfan said:
Can anyone here explain why the OHL media notes page describes June 29th trade where Aiden Jamieson goes to Sudbury for (only) "SBY 15 2017*"...

... Whereas in the press there was more than one conditional pick, specifically:

The trade, announced Wednesday, will send Jamieson up north in a deal that will net the Knights several picks – though all are conditional on the Wolves’ ability to have Jamieson in their lineup.

Here are the picks, and the conditions attached:

*London gets Sudbury’s 15th-round pick in 2017, though that becomes a 9th-round pick if Jamieson shows up at the Wolves training camp this fall.

*London will get Sudbury's 3rd-round 2017 pick if Jamieson plays in one exhibition for the Wolves this fall.

*London will get Sudbury’s 2nd-round pick in 2020 if Jamieson plays one regular season game with the Wolves this season.​
Click to expand...

The plot thickens. In addition to the way the trade was reported in the London Free Press, here is how it is reported on the London Knights website:

The full trade and conditions can be seen below:

To Sudbury:
Aiden Jamieson

To London:
Sudbury’s 15th round pick in 2017
- If Aiden Jamieson reports to main camp, Sudbury’s 15th round pick moves up to Sudbury’s 9th round pick in 2017.
Conditional Sudbury 3rd round pick in 2017
- If Aiden Jamieson plays in one (1) exhibition game, London will receive Sudbury’s 3rd round pick in 2017.
Conditional Sudbury 2nd round pick in 2020
- If Aiden Jamieson plays in one (1) regular season game, London will receive Sudbury’s 2nd round pick in 2020.​

Yet, on a Sudbury news site:
The Sudbury Wolves have acquired overage defenceman Aiden Jamieson from the London Knights in exchange for a conditional 15th round draft pick in 2017.
​

I think the OHL Media Notes page may be wrong or at least incomplete. It indicates the 15th in 2017 is conditional, when it is a sure thing except it can conditionally become a 9th. The remaining conditional picks are incremental to the first 15th-to-9th condition.
 

Tigers1992

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
4,062
0
sfan said:
The plot thickens. In addition to the way the trade was reported in the London Free Press, here is how it is reported on the London Knights website:

The full trade and conditions can be seen below:

To Sudbury:
Aiden Jamieson

To London:
Sudbury’s 15th round pick in 2017
- If Aiden Jamieson reports to main camp, Sudbury’s 15th round pick moves up to Sudbury’s 9th round pick in 2017.
Conditional Sudbury 3rd round pick in 2017
- If Aiden Jamieson plays in one (1) exhibition game, London will receive Sudbury’s 3rd round pick in 2017.
Conditional Sudbury 2nd round pick in 2020
- If Aiden Jamieson plays in one (1) regular season game, London will receive Sudbury’s 2nd round pick in 2020.​

Yet, on a Sudbury news site:
The Sudbury Wolves have acquired overage defenceman Aiden Jamieson from the London Knights in exchange for a conditional 15th round draft pick in 2017.
​

I think the OHL Media Notes page may be wrong or at least incomplete. It indicates the 15th in 2017 is conditional, when it is a sure thing except it can conditionally become a 9th. The remaining conditional picks are incremental to the first 15th-to-9th condition.
Click to expand...


There is no error, the 15th round pick itself is conditional. The lowest it could be would be a 15th round pick, but that pick itself is not locked in, so you cannot suggest its anything other than a conditional pick. They are not promised a 15th round pick, that pick could change. The 15th round pick may be the lowest part of the conditions, but its still part of the conditions. Until the picks are locked in, every aspect of the trade is TBA, hence 'conditional 15th round pick'.
 

sfan

Registered User
Jun 26, 2013
573
0
Ottawa
Tigers1992 said:
There is no error, the 15th round pick itself is conditional. The lowest it could be would be a 15th round pick, but that pick itself is not locked in, so you cannot suggest its anything other than a conditional pick. They are not promised a 15th round pick, that pick could change. The 15th round pick may be the lowest part of the conditions, but its still part of the conditions. Until the picks are locked in, every aspect of the trade is TBA, hence 'conditional 15th round pick'.
Click to expand...

I understand what you are saying but the OHL Media Notes seem to be at least in error WRT consistency.

Both London and Sudbury unambiguously state that 15th is the only sure thing in this trade. That it could be upgraded to a 9th is what's conditional. Describing the 15th as conditional suggests that London could get nothing at all which is not the case. I'll allow that this misleading semantic ambiguity could be conventional practice but it is not self evident in a way that reflects the truth or the details.

The more curious error of consistency is that Media Notes does not list the other Jamieson conditional picks. Just look at the June 22nd transaction for Roslovic where his conditional 2nd rounds in 2017 and '18 are listed. The conditions for both Roslovic and Jamieson are essentially the same.
 

Tigers1992

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
4,062
0
sfan said:
I understand what you are saying but the OHL Media Notes seem to be at least in error WRT consistency.

Both London and Sudbury unambiguously state that 15th is the only sure thing in this trade. That it could be upgraded to a 9th is what's conditional. Describing the 15th as conditional suggests that London could get nothing at all which is not the case. I'll allow that this misleading semantic ambiguity could be conventional practice but it is not self evident in a way that reflects the truth or the details.

The more curious error of consistency is that Media Notes does not list the other Jamieson conditional picks. Just look at the June 22nd transaction for Roslovic where his conditional 2nd rounds in 2017 and '18 are listed. The conditions for both Roslovic and Jamieson are essentially the same.
Click to expand...

Thats fair. There is some inconsistency with how they are reporting picks. In one sense they don't include the conditionals trades (the Milano and Jamieson trades as examples) while other times they do include them (see the Fabbri and Roslovic trades). Im sure they have their reasons, perhaps something in the contract or the wording of the conditions, but on its surface you're right, its inconsistent.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom