OHL Trades 2016-17 Season Thread

[Hub]

North Bay should be in the market for a goalie. NO WAY they go with Kment as the starter, and it's tough to go with 2 rookie goalies (Forrest & Woroniuk). Plus Forrest has already "Committed" to NCAA. So look for Stan to go out and find a '97 or '98 birth year goalie.

 

[Millpond]

http://www.briercrest.ca/bcast/news/article.aspx?id=3309&type=23

Thanks.
That answers that

 

[OSMike]

Thanks.
That answers that

Good for Daniel but bad for the Attack. Daniel would have been a prize OA goalie. I liked what I saw from him last year. The Attack would have gotten a good return. All the best Daniel.

 

[Petes]

Good for Daniel but bad for the Attack. Daniel would have been a prize OA goalie. I liked what I saw from him last year. The Attack would have gotten a good return. All the best Daniel.

I'm not so sure the market would have been there with others likely to be available... No offense to Daniel...

 

[Greatger]

NORTH BAY, Ont. – The North Bay Battalion has traded left winger Mike Baird to the Windsor Spitfires, the Ontario Hockey League club announced Thursday.

In return for Baird, the Battalion received Windsor’s fourth-round pick in the 2017 OHL Priority Selection.

“I think it’s a trade that’s good for both teams,†said Stan Butler, Battalion director of hockey operations and head coach. “Mike gets a chance to play for a team that’s going to host the Memorial Cup next year, and we get to draft a player who can play for us for three or four years.â€

Added Butler: “On behalf of the Battalion organization, I’d like to wish Mike all the best in the future.â€

Baird, a 19-year-old resident of Cayuga, Ont., played three seasons with North Bay after being chosen in the second round of the 2013 OHL Priority Selection from the Southern Tier Admirals minor midgets.

The six-foot-two, 171-pound Baird scored 10 goals and earned 15 assists for 25 points in 132 games while accumulating 196 penalty minutes. He scored five goals in each of the last two seasons and had 13 assists in 2015-16 for a career-high 18 points.

He played 16 playoff games over two seasons without registering a point and went home for rest at the end of the regular season this year, with the result that he didn’t appear in the postseason.

He served several suspensions during his time with the Troops, the last seeing him return to the lineup in a 4-2 loss at Windsor on March 5 after sitting out 10 games.

IMO. Butler couldn't control him and he left the team.

 

[Finster8]

Windsor has definitely gained some grit. Good deal for both teams.

 

[sfan]

ICYMI (I did), a number of picks were traded in early April:
http://new.ontariohockeyleague.com/media-notes/

Can someone shed light on these pick-for-pick trades ? I didn't make note of similar trades last year.

See April 6-8:
http://new.ontariohockeyleague.com/media-notes/[/I]​

 

[sirius67fan]

Can someone shed light on these pick-for-pick trades ? I didn't make note of similar trades last year.

See April 6-8:
http://new.ontariohockeyleague.com/media-notes/[/I]​

There is a small window before draft to trade picks only (except first round). So teams with no second can trade for one with a team that has too many as only 4 16 y.o. can make the team anyway. This is an example and the team usually gets a bonus pick later and can spread out their picks.

 

[sfan]

There is a small window before draft to trade picks only (except first round). So teams with no second can trade for one with a team that has too many as only 4 16 y.o. can make the team anyway. This is an example and the team usually gets a bonus pick later and can spread out their picks.

Thanks sirius!

 

[Macker88]

Spitfires acquired Baird from Battalion,

https://prospectshockey.wordpress.com/2016/06/02/spitfires-acquire-baird-from-battalion/

 

[nelli27]

Spitfires acquired Baird from Battalion,

https://prospectsh7ockey.wordpress.com/2016/06/02/spitfires-acquire-baird-from-battalion/

There appears to be a contradiction in this article. You note that Baird was traded for a 4th round pick in 2018 and then later you write that the 4th round pick will be in the upcoming draft (2017).

 

[hockeylegend11]

Spits

There appears to be a contradiction in this article. You note that Baird was traded for a 4th round pick in 2018 and then later you write that the 4th round pick will be in the upcoming draft (2017).

It's a 4th in 2017, according to OHL website.

 

[Macker88]

Thanks for pointing that out, it is 2017. It was a typo. My apologies. Fixing it now

 

[sfan]

Wolves GM working the phones:
http://www.thesudburystar.com/2016/06/03/wolves-gm-working-the-phones

 

[sfan]

Yesterday sports writer Kathryn Jean tweeted that 19yo Ottawa 67s C/RW Ben Fanjoy has requested a trade.
Discussion on 67s thread http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2056663&page=5
Stats: http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=207366

 

[inthehammer]

Has anyone considered that Hamilton might be open to sending Connor Hicks out to pave the way for Kaden Fulcher? Ceci and Donofrio are bubbling under in their system, both ready to make the jump to the backup role as well.

Hicks to Mississauga?

 

[Macker88]

Not a trade but a free agent signing. For those interested here is our write up on the Sting signing defenseman Jordan Ernst. Complete with scouting report, analysis and stats,

https://prospectshockey.wordpress.com/2016/06/09/sting-sign-free-agent-jordan-ernst/

 

[sfan]

What's the value of a pick?

I’ve been curious about the value of picks in trades. Obviously, the first rule of value is that in any specific transaction it is determined by the price that a seller and buyer agree upon. Both may have specific reasons (asset needs or surplus) to go above or below a technical value. Furthermore, players have differing intangible skills or weaknesses that can affect their trade value.

This said, it seems to me that future picks should have a pretty straight-forward technical value based on the probability that a given pick in a given round results in a roster worthy productive player. I will limit this exercise to forwards, perhaps the easiest position to assess with simple stats. Here is the approach I took:

1. Scraped data from the 2008, '09 and '10 OHL drafts (this allowed me to examine stats from their entire OHL career)
2. Identified, by round, the forwards drafted then the subset of forwards that had OHL careers more than 100 games
3. Aggregated their total points, games, and points per game

A summary of the data can be downloaded below (PDF; login required).

With this limited data set, here is what the numbers roughly tell in terms of the value of a pick:

• About 100% of first rounders have full OHL careers with .85 points per game
• About 2/3rds of second and third rounders become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .6 pts per game
• About 1/3rd of fourth and fifth rounders become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .5 pts per game
• About 1/5th of players drafted after the 6th round become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .5 pts per game

Additional notes and comments:

• More years need to be analyzed as the sample size for 4th and 5th rounders is rather small.
• People smarter than me could characterize the performance variation among players drafted within 'round cohorts'. Looking at the player details visually the difference is substantial.
• The average PPG performance difference between many 1st and 4th rounders was not that great, yet it is subjectively evident that most first rounders get substantially higher quality and quantity of time on ice. How much of this PPG delta is attributable skill and how much is context?
• Would a comparable analysis for defenders (games played and PPG) be similarly relevant?
• Evaluating goalies would be more of a hassle as the data can't be as easily scraped with my limited manual skills.

Any comments, questions, suggestions?

 

[aresknights]

Thanks sfan.
The work is appreciated.

 

[GoKnightsGo44]

That you that's good info

 

[keepingscore]

A summary of the data can be downloaded below (PDF; login required).

With this limited data set, here is what the numbers roughly tell in terms of the value of a pick:

• About 100% of first rounders have full OHL careers with .85 points per game
• About 2/3rds of second and third rounders become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .6 pts per game
• About 1/3rd of fourth and fifth rounders become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .5 pts per game
• About 1/5th of players drafted after the 6th round become solid OHLers with an expected average career production of about .5 pts per game

Additional notes and comments:

• More years need to be analyzed as the sample size for 4th and 5th rounders is rather small.
• People smarter than me could characterize the performance variation among players drafted within 'round cohorts'. Looking at the player details visually the difference is substantial.
• The average PPG performance difference between many 1st and 4th rounders was not that great, yet it is subjectively evident that most first rounders get substantially higher quality and quantity of time on ice. How much of this PPG delta is attributable skill and how much is context?
• Would a comparable analysis for defenders (games played and PPG) be similarly relevant?
• Evaluating goalies would be more of a hassle as the data can't be as easily scraped with my limited manual skills.

Any comments, questions, suggestions?[/QUOTE]

Yes, cut the draft to 10 rounds and stop messing with the lives of 15 year old boys who make playing in the OHL their life's purpose. Clearly, as your stats show, a very small percentage even get a shot.
I hope parents are reading this very carefully.
On draft day, each team makes these kids feel like a million bucks, welcoming them to the "family." Two years later, after two prospect camps and maybe two main camps, their OHL dreams are done.
Cut the draft and cut the crap you're feeding the vast majority of these kids.

 

[Canadian Game]

Has anyone considered that Hamilton might be open to sending Connor Hicks out to pave the way for Kaden Fulcher? Ceci and Donofrio are bubbling under in their system, both ready to make the jump to the backup role as well.

Hicks to Mississauga?

For a team which has a decent amount of players with zero OHL playoff experience, yet possibly wants to land the 2018 Memorial Cup, the last thing I would do is trade Hicks.

Fulcher is developing very well and I'm sure he can become a great OHL goalie...with more experience and development. He shouldn't be forced into the #1 role after a rookie season with 17 OHL games played when he can spend another season in a backup role which he can get more comfortable and fine-tune his skills.

Even if Hamilton were to land the 2018 Mem Cup, we currently have 7 1997s who would be OAs in 2017-18. Depending on how this coming season pans out and what the roster looks like at this time next year, I'd still consider keeping Hicks for an OA spot.

 

[Mayday3*]

For a team which has a decent amount of players with zero OHL playoff experience, yet possibly wants to land the 2018 Memorial Cup, the last thing I would do is trade Hicks.

Fulcher is developing very well and I'm sure he can become a great OHL goalie...with more experience and development. He shouldn't be forced into the #1 role after a rookie season with 17 OHL games played when he can spend another season in a backup role which he can get more comfortable and fine-tune his skills.

Even if Hamilton were to land the 2018 Mem Cup, we currently have 7 1997s who would be OAs in 2017-18. Depending on how this coming season pans out and what the roster looks like at this time next year, I'd still consider keeping Hicks for an OA spot.

I don't think there's any chance Hamilton gets the 2018 Memorial Cup

 

[Canadian Game]

I don't think there's any chance Hamilton gets the 2018 Memorial Cup

I guess that's a different discussion for a different thread although with David Branch, nothing would surprise me. He's already said that the 2018 Mem Cup would be open to the entire CHL...and Hamilton has one of the largest seating capacities once the upper curtains are pealed back.

With that said, I am merely making the point that I would move Hicks too quickly if they want to build up to making a big run.

 

[Mayday3*]

I guess that's a different discussion for a different thread although with David Branch, nothing would surprise me. He's already said that the 2018 Mem Cup would be open to the entire CHL...and Hamilton has one of the largest seating capacities once the upper curtains are pealed back.

With that said, I am merely making the point that I would move Hicks too quickly if they want to build up to making a big run.

That's true. From OHL teams I've only heard Ottawa/Oshawa but it seems like these things are always kept quiet with Branch so maybe you're right