OHL - Defected Players

[GangGreen]

I seem to recall Sudbury having some decent success when they had their "Hunter" running the team, Mike Foligno.

 

[Whalers Fan]

Sonny Milano is a pretty good player, as we saw from his success in Plymouth last year. If he were playing in the OHL right now, we'd probably have a pretty good idea of his value as a player (1.5 PPG, for starters), and, moreover, we could assume that value would be roughly equivalent to all of the teams he'd agree to accept a trade to. Of course, Milano isn't playing in the OHL right now: when London traded for him, they didn't really trade for Milano--they traded for his rights. Let's pretend Kingston was also interested in getting Milano, and that the two teams saw Milano's value as a player for them as basically equal (this may not be true, but this is just an example to illustrate a larger point). I argued, and I think it's generally accepted, that London is a more desirable location to play than Kingston. Let's attach some numbers to this idea; say that London has a 50% chance of getting Milano to play for them, and Kingston has a 30% chance. Both numbers are probably far too high, but, again, it's just an example. Then the value of Milano's rights to each team is the product of his value to them as a player (again, equal for each team for the purpose of this exercise) multiplied by the likelihood he reports. So we have the following:

The value of Milano's rights to London = 50% x [Milano's value as a player]
The value of Milano's rights to Kingston = 30% x [Milano's value as a player]

No matter what Milano's value is, his rights are more valuable to London than Kingston.

It follows pretty immediately from that that London should be willing to pay more than Kingston for Milano; teams pay what they perceive players to be worth to acquire them. And, lo and behold, that's exactly what London did. This is why the "Well your team could have traded for him too!" rejoinders when other teams' fans were complaining about the Milano transaction didn't hold water. The other teams couldn't offer what London was offering without overpaying.

Your Sonny Milano example really doesn't work, since Milano is currently playing in the AHL, and only the Columbus Bluejackets will decide if Milano stays in the AHL or gets sent back down to the OHL for the remainder of the season. There is no recruiting that will happen between an OHL team and Milano. If the choice was Milano's, he would stay in the AHL. Therefore, his rights are worth the same to any OHL team.

The recruitment of Milano into the OHL happened last year, when the Plymouth Whalers (probably with some help by Columbus) convinced him to play for them instead of honoring his NCAA commitment after Columbus selected him in the 1st round of the 2015 draft.

 

[h10*]

San Antonio is a lot smaller market than Detroit.
The World Series was just won by one of the smallest market teams in MLB, with one of the hardest working GM's
Branch is employed by the owners, and the better players that play in this league, the more money goes in the owners pockets. For some privileged kids, playing in Ann Arbor at U of M is a legitimate option, so they can use that to dictate their preferred location.
Sarnia has never seemed to have a problem getting high-end Americans to report. (Jacobs, Boucher, Murphy etc.) Yet it hasn't translated to winning for them. Why is that?

I never said NBA is about big markets.. It's about players dictating.
And you will always have exceptions. Congrats to the Royals but they sucked almost every year prior to their recent success.. Much like Erie. Doesn't mean that success will continue

 

[Ward Cornell]

1. Work hard and hire the right people

Too be honest the term "work hard" is a very loose term.
For instance, a farmer "A" who has 100 acres that still gets ploughed with a horse has a next to impossible time hiring good help and can barely keep his farm afloat. But still feels a sense of obligation to his children and local community to keep going at it year after year.
While farmer "B" who has the same field but has all the latest equipment (sprayers, harvesters ect...ect...) with air conditioned cabs and gets a greater crop yield.
Then both farmers meet at the local community centre and all Farmer "A" hears is the reason Farmer "B" is so successful is that he works harder!...Ummmm don't know if that would fly too far.

BTW...I also remember certain athletes say they were successful because they worked harder in the gym. But the reason they worked harder was because they were on PED's. But he still "worked harder".

Maybe everyone should just drop the "worked harder" theme because there are a lot of extemely hard working scouts and GMS out there. To say one is the hardest working one is vastly unfair to the 90% of the scouts/GMs out there beating the bushes!

 

[youngblood10]

Here's the skinny. It's a business. When businesses take their customers for granted eventually they go out of business. Right or wrong, the majority of the OHL's customers are not satisfied with how the current model of operations is operating. The big difference is that the cost of the product is much higher than in the past, so the customer's expectation is higher than in years gone by. The good news is that it's only at a point of discontent. So things can be done. Once those customers reach apathy, it will be too late. So the league can take a look in the mirror and realize this or keep on the current path and wait for the bubble to burst.

 

[dirty12]

I seem to recall Sudbury having some decent success when they had their "Hunter" running the team, Mike Foligno.

I miss his teams. But, he had to go because his game was a thing of the past?

 

[Tigers1992]

Too be honest the term "work hard" is a very loose term.
For instance, a farmer "A" who has 100 acres that still gets ploughed with a horse has a next to impossible time hiring good help and can barely keep his farm afloat. But still feels a sense of obligation to his children and local community to keep going at it year after year.
While farmer "B" who has the same field but has all the latest equipment (sprayers, harvesters ect...ect...) with air conditioned cabs and gets a greater crop yield.
Then both farmers meet at the local community centre and all Farmer "A" hears is the reason Farmer "B" is so successful is that he works harder!...Ummmm don't know if that would fly too far.

BTW...I also remember certain athletes say they were successful because they worked harder in the gym. But the reason they worked harder was because they were on PED's. But he still "worked harder".

Maybe everyone should just drop the "worked harder" theme because there are a lot of extemely hard working scouts and GMS out there. To say one is the hardest working one is vastly unfair to the 90% of the scouts/GMs out there beating the bushes!

For me it comes down to this. If you're not willing to at least match the work ethic of those above you, you can't complain about the results. Work ethic is easy, yet so few are willing to make that sacrifice. Some guys I talk to think a half day at a tournament is hard work, others spend 14 hours there. Guess who does better come draft day?

According to some on here small market teams can't complete, I'll again go to my Soo example. They didn't accept that the couldn't compete, they put a program together and now sign players they 'shouldn't' according to those that say money rules.

We should let them know they should stop drafting and signing top US kids, only Lobdon can do that lol

 

[Lanny]

I miss his teams. But, he had to go because his game was a thing of the past?

Thing of the past??

Mike Foligno put butts in the seats and a winning product on the ice!!

Ya I guess Burgess and Mastos are doing fine with an empty arena each night and a loosing product on the ice. Boy the future looks so bright with these two!!!!

Not so sure about your comment.

 

[bobber]

Too be honest the term "work hard" is a very loose term.
For instance, a farmer "A" who has 100 acres that still gets ploughed with a horse has a next to impossible time hiring good help and can barely keep his farm afloat. But still feels a sense of obligation to his children and local community to keep going at it year after year.
While farmer "B" who has the same field but has all the latest equipment (sprayers, harvesters ect...ect...) with air conditioned cabs and gets a greater crop yield.
Then both farmers meet at the local community centre and all Farmer "A" hears is the reason Farmer "B" is so successful is that he works harder!...Ummmm don't know if that would fly too far.

BTW...I also remember certain athletes say they were successful because they worked harder in the gym. But the reason they worked harder was because they were on PED's. But he still "worked harder".

Maybe everyone should just drop the "worked harder" theme because there are a lot of extemely hard working scouts and GMS out there. To say one is the hardest working one is vastly unfair to the 90% of the scouts/GMs out there beating the bushes!

My uncle was a farmer. Sold manure spreaders. Wouldn't stand behind them though.

 

[youngblood10]

For me it comes down to this. If you're not willing to at least match the work ethic of those above you, you can't complain about the results. Work ethic is easy, yet so few are willing to make that sacrifice. Some guys I talk to think a half day at a tournament is hard work, others spend 14 hours there. Guess who does better come draft day?

According to some on here small market teams can't complete, I'll again go to my Soo example. They didn't accept that the couldn't compete, they put a program together and now sign players they 'shouldn't' according to those that say money rules.

We should let them know they should stop drafting and signing top US kids, only Lobdon can do that lol

You make a valid point but it's a judgement based on only a fraction of the total picture. Is a gm who has to spend time making deals with municipal governments for locker room or arena upgrades, lazy because he's not out scouting for example. Hunter has the luxury of having a boat with no holes to plug, that's an aspect you're ignorant to acknowledge . You use the Soo as an example yet they have only made the conference final once in 10 years. If 50% is deemed not successful by some.....

 

[h10*]

You make a valid point but it's a judgement based on only a fraction of the total picture. Is a gm who has to spend time making deals with municipal governments for locker room or arena upgrades, lazy because he's not out scouting for example. Hunter has the luxury of having a boat with no holes to plug, that's an aspect you're ignorant to acknowledge . You use the Soo as an example yet they have only made the conference final once in 10 years. If 50% is deemed not successful by some.....

I just don't get how people keep assuming no other team gives effort. Like they sit around and want 3000 attendance a game and weak teams so they can make no money. Everyone is giving effort and again it's ridiculous and flat out arrogant/rude to think only London gives effort and that is the reason for their success. How much of a LOL thinking is that

 

[Tigers1992]

I just don't get how people keep assuming no other team gives effort. Like they sit around and want 3000 attendance a game and weak teams so they can make no money. Everyone is giving effort and again it's ridiculous and flat out arrogant/rude to think only London gives effort and that is the reason for their success. How much of a LOL thinking is that

Come on out and see firsthand. Generally that's the best way to believe something as opposed to having a conclusion already formed before you instigate a conversation.

As an example, I've seen one GM at every tournament and a significant amount of league games over the past two years. Another GM I didn't see for three years. Not all organizations put the same onus on scouting/recruitment.

 

[Tigers1992]

You make a valid point but it's a judgement based on only a fraction of the total picture. Is a gm who has to spend time making deals with municipal governments for locker room or arena upgrades, lazy because he's not out scouting for example. Hunter has the luxury of having a boat with no holes to plug, that's an aspect you're ignorant to acknowledge . You use the Soo as an example yet they have only made the conference final once in 10 years. If 50% is deemed not successful by some.....

Soo example was based on the amount of US based players they attract. Using the rational that has been presented, there lack or resources and location, we should see them sign zero, let alone the 5/6 they now have. They brought in a kid from the U of Minnesota even (that rarely happens). Results will or will not come, but instead of not trying, they've done extremely well with player recruitment, even the most jaded of posters (not necessarily yourself) should be able to admit as much (yet don't seem willing).

 

[Otto]

Come on out and see firsthand. Generally that's the best way to believe something as opposed to having a conclusion already formed before you instigate a conversation.

As an example, I've seen one GM at every tournament and a significant amount of league games over the past two years. Another GM I didn't see for three years. Not all organizations put the same onus on scouting/recruitment.

Sounds to me that this one GM you mention is working a lot harder than the 2nd one you mention

 

[h10*]

Come on out and see firsthand. Generally that's the best way to believe something as opposed to having a conclusion already formed before you instigate a conversation.

And come out and see how Erie does business. Sorry your success isn't fully based off "effort" and "we just work harder than the rest"
But makes sense because London fans have been spoiled for the better part of 10-15 years.
Just because you have more money and more employees doesn't mean you are working harder.
Each team works hard in their own specific way. Erie currently working very hard in community to build back up fans to create revenue to create a system that is more consistent to create more wins.
Knoblauch was seen going to EIA at 4:30-5am on morning of game 6 of western conference finals to be prepared and ready to go.
Every team works hard. I'm not saying London doesn't work hard but to act like others just are on their a** and lazy is again ignorant.
Just because other teams can't get guys like Domi or Mete to play for them means they aren't working hard???
Erie has been extremely successful at finding late round gems. Beyond the 5th round were in my view is when drafting starts to become much more difficult. And these kids aren't pulling the college card that Erie snags in late round. They are at the time late round talent but our scouts have found guys they believe they can develop and have been rock solid at it.

Matter of fact:
Since 2010 beyond the 5th round.. So 6th-15th round.. Where evaluations of players get hard:

London has had 5 players that weren't according to what I found considering college. 5 players have "panned out" and have been average or above average in league.
(Round drafted)
(7) Kevin Raine
(6) Aiden Wallace
(6) Zach Grezelewski
(10) Aiden Jamison
(6) Nicolas Mattinen

The most successful players London has snagged since 2010 beyond round 5 have all been Americans with college consideration or commitment. Beyond round 6.. So rounds 7-15.. Just 2 players have really panned out for the Knights from 2010-2014

Erie has had in that same span has had 12 players that have been average to above average players and weren't really ever even considering college.
(8) Liam Masskant
(13) Connor Brown
(6) Nick Betz
(8) Daniel Dekoning
(9) Travis Dermott
(11) Quentin Maksimovich
(7) Patrick Fellows
(8) TJ Fergus
(6) Taylor Egan
(7) Riley MacRae
(10) Jordan Sambrook
(11) Christian Girhiny
Most players they drafted beyond the 5th round that were strongly considering college, like Dylan Larkin, never came to Erie.
Come to think of it: 8 guys on this current team were all drafted beyond round 5. Pretty impressive.

Basically londons drafting success which you base on sheer effort has largely been dependent on college kids committing to them. But other than that they seem to not really hit on any late round players. Anyone can draft rounds 1-5 when you aren't projecting as much. But 6-15 Erie has seemingly "outworked" London but yet we haven't been giving the effort I guess because college recruit guys don't want to come here..

But nooooo that's not effort... No way. Just luck I guess

 

[Otto]

London currently has 6 free agents on their roster.. Erie 2

 

[h10*]

That's the spirit.

If Erie is so hard done by in attracting American players they should really did deep and find out why. Plymouth never seemed to have an issue with it. The positives of playing for a US based team have to outweigh the negatives for an American player

You clearly don't understand the history of the Otter franchise then..
They sucked for 10 years. Again they sucked. Nobody was coming here unless they just wanted playing time. It takes longer than 2 years to rebuild that image

 

[youngblood10]

Soo example was based on the amount of US based players they attract. Using the rational that has been presented, there lack or resources and location, we should see them sign zero, let alone the 5/6 they now have. They brought in a kid from the U of Minnesota even (that rarely happens). Results will or will not come, but instead of not trying, they've done extremely well with player recruitment, even the most jaded of posters (not necessarily yourself) should be able to admit as much (yet don't seem willing).

I don't disagree with your point, I don't think it's as black and white as your making it out to be however. Also basing the GM's worth or work ethic based on only one element of the job, the scouting in this case is not a fair assessment.

 

[Tigers1992]

I don't disagree with your point, I don't think it's as black and white as your making it out to be however. Also basing the GM's worth or work ethic based on only one element of the job, the scouting in this case is not a fair assessment.

My point, just stripping it down, is if recruitment is solely based on geography and money, then the Soo wouldn't have this level of success with US based skaters. If it's not just geography and money, then maybe there are other reasons why the Soo/Lobdon/Kitchener et al recruit and sign players? That's logical, no?

If the Soo can do it, why can't others?

 

[dirty12]

Thing of the past??

Mike Foligno put butts in the seats and a winning product on the ice!!

Ya I guess Burgess and Mastos are doing fine with an empty arena each night and a loosing product on the ice. Boy the future looks so bright with these two!!!!

Not so sure about your comment.

It was a little sarcasm. With b.smith & cull, the team was moving in a different direction reflecting the way the game was being played. Apparently, body checking & cycling were no longer part of the game

 

[youngblood10]

My point, just stripping it down, is if recruitment is solely based on geography and money, then the Soo wouldn't have this level of success with US based skaters. If it's not just geography and money, then maybe there are other reasons why the Soo/Lobdon/Kitchener et al recruit and sign players? That's logical, no?

If the Soo can do it, why can't others?

It will be a good test to see what kind of success the leafs will have with these two contributing. Different playing field in the NHL.

 

[Tigers1992]

It will be a good test to see what kind of success the leafs will have with these two contributing. Different playing field in the NHL.

I take it that you do admit then, that if the Soo could do it, so can everyone else?

I think the mentality that the Leafs have now is the right one, draft skill, as many skill guys as you can and supplement them with smart risk (or boom/bust) picks (Nielson). You can find the Biggs types out there (even if Biggs hit on his potential), you can't find the high skill guys.

 

[youngblood10]

I take it that you do admit then, that if the Soo could do it, so can everyone else?

I think the mentality that the Leafs have now is the right one, draft skill, as many skill guys as you can and supplement them with smart risk (or boom/bust) picks (Nielson). You can find the Biggs types out there (even if Biggs hit on his potential), you can't find the high skill guys.

My position hasn't changed. I think you make a valid point. But it's a narrow scope in respective to how complex the overall situation is.

 

[Ward Cornell]

My position hasn't changed. I think you make a valid point. But it's a narrow scope in respective to how complex the overall situation is.

and there is always outliers.
Lets see them go through a cpl cycles of players before declaring see "they can do it"!

Where would Erie be if the McDavid's wasn't a such a high class family that they excepted Erie??

 

[Tigers1992]

and there is always outliers.
Lets see them go through a cpl cycles of players before declaring see "they can do it"!

Where would Erie be if the McDavid's wasn't a such a high class family that they excepted Erie??

My overall point was, and continues to be, that everyone points to London and suggests that the only reason that they get top Us skaters is due to money and geography. How is that even possible that the Soo has done it, especially considering that Kyle was acknowledged as one of the hardest working guys out there.

One or two signings are an outlier, 5? Thats a trend.

Its also interesting to note that the Soo's drafting of US based prospects increased significantly under Dubas and the signings started soon after. Theres a direct line cause and effect there. Draft them, work on them and sign a percentage. You have to have the stomach to miss on draft picks. Kyle was also the guy who drafted Tolchinski 12th overall when he had a deal with another team and wouldn't report. Look how that worked out for him.

People will always need to hate London or whomever else is signing players, but my overall point being is if the Soo can do it, why cant anyone. Its very simple and easy to complain, no so easy to fight back.