fresh meat, updated: As of August 22, 2016
1. w/Oil
Klein 2.9 x 2, Lindberg, .650x2, Fast .95m x1 expiring /total 4.5m
for
EDM 1st, Bogdan Yakimov, .8425, + Yakupov, 2.5 m expiring /total 3.925m
close enough to cap neutral
Why: Oilers want D, esp RD and Klein is reliable on good #s. Fast and Lindberg are responsible w/some upside provide immediate depth. Yaki is a stud but extremely raw, has all the power already, but can he skate? Yaku, Oil has been there, done that, was looking for a 3rd at the draft, supposedly, no takers. They move on w/immediately useful assets. For NY it is a pick, a project and a limited gamble, and while scraping a drop of cap, they have two less bodies to expansion protect.
Note: If Yakupov is in fact still so highly regarded, and is such a big deal, we can accept alternate comp for him. He is arguably a bust as a 1OA, and is included here for cap, but whatever both sides can live with is fine, in this deal the guy is a throw in.
An acceptable alternate for cap would be F Tyler Pitlik (725,000 expiring) + Brandon Davidson (1.425m x 2) no NMCs.
2. W/Canes
Stepan* (6.5) + three Ranger 3rds in 2018, 2019 and 2020
for
Pesce (809.166 x 2) + Murphy (787,500 x 2) + three Cane 2nds: return of Ranger 2017 2nd, Canes 2nd in 2017 and 2018, + cap dump Bickel 4.0 expiring
* has NMC clause but does not become effective til next season, so defeated with this trade.
Rangers gain just under 1m cap relief, moving 6.5, taking on a bit over 5.5
Why: CAR has excess of D, Step is a solid add. For NY, Pesce is exempt from expansion draft [not believed that is impacted by how many games he plays], which enhancement is huge value add for Rangers. Murphy not exempt, but interesting RD add and surplus for Canes who just want decent value add. NY gains position on equal number pick swap surrendering threes for twos, but has to eat expiring cap dump.
3. W/Jets
McDonagh 4.7 x3 + Ranger 3rd in 2017, and NYR 4th in 2018
for
Trouba, [RFA = 0, but will result in savings for Wini since it is not paying Trouba 6 or more] + Jets 2nd in 2017, and Jets 3rd in 2018
cap is close enough
this deal was approved by Maukkis who underscored he would not recommend it to NY in a vacuum, and that moving Trouba, a 9OA, was not cut and dried either; however, his final conclusion remains, objectively, for Jets getting McD on that sweet contract, and the balance it provides adding needed LD to ample RD, it was worth it, even if it meant also losing on two separate picks exchanges; NY takes on more cap.
McD is ideal for Wini, which is RD heavy.
Rangers eliminate that McD can invoke protection clause soon, and this trade defeats that; acquire Trouba, who will cost more $ now but will be more cost effective later, but they get younger and also add in an area of need, unless he is flipped....
4. W/Sabres
RFA Trouba, Zuc, 4.5 x3, Staal 5.75; LW Malte Stromwall, .742,500 x 2; C Tambellini, .803,333 m x 2; RW Kovacs, .803,333 m x 3; + 2nd round pick 2018 from Ottawa (Brass for Zib deal). Cap: 2.349,166 for the prospects each on 2 way contract, + vets = 10.25 + 2.349,166 = 12.599,166, not counting Trouba is RFA
for
Sabres 1st 2017,
C Sam Reinhart on ELC, .894,166 x2 (cap hit)
Evander Kane, 6m, but 5.25m cap hit.
cap dump Franson 3.325 x1, Moulson 5m x3
total of 13.575
a hair over 1m savings to Buffalo — close enough cap is neutral
Basically this is a package deal in three parts. On the top, it is Trouba for Reinhart (I thought I read somewhere on the boards that Trouba is friends w/Eichel, or to that effect. Not sure, just sayin.)
Sabes have prob with Risto demands, whatever they are. Trouba adds a comparable talent (he a 9th rounder and Risto an 8th a year apart) which gives them an option to trade Risto if necessary from Oilers for Draisatil +. Or, they could go with both and trade elsewhere on their RD. I think Risto goes. That does leave Buf short a 2C behind Eichel, but the added depth and likelihood of a Risto for Drai or similar scenario soothes that fear. That is assuming Ennis and Grigensons don’t step up (O’Reilly, already behind Eichel, so still works for Buf. Roughly value wise that is a wash.
[If both Trouba and Ristolainen were kept, Staal would be the other D kept due to NMC. However, it is better than 50-50 IMO that Trouba allows Buffalo to parlay Risto into primo pieces returned, which may defeat that particular concern about which Ds are saved. Also, in this particular deal, Zuc is the only other piece Sabres pick up who has to be protected, and arguably his inclusion as a top 6W will be at the cost of a bottom 6F (Moulson), so no big whoop there.}
Second part is bad contract for head case. Sabes had enough w/Kane arrest downside. Assuming Staal waives, while he is no longer best pure shutdown D in NHL, in the right system he is still productive. Buf won’t like, but has to take on Staal’s NMC. Roughly value wise that is close to a wash/small edge to Rangers
Last part is Zuc + depth for pick and dumps. Former 3rd rounders Tambellini may be here as early as this year, Kovacs, next year, Stromwall is a crapshoot who has played w/Kovacs, but wowed ‘em last year. Sabes paid a third for inside track on college FA Vesey, this deal not only returns that 3rd round value on the pick 2x, but both Tambo this year and Kovacs after (possibly also freebie add Stromwall) are here faster than any 3rd rounder Buffalo will draft then develop. That portion is total favor of Sabes. That leaves Zuc +the Ott 2nd for the upgraded pick. That portion is a wash, depending on where the selections are slotted.
Summary, on balance IMO it is fair; there is quality for quality but as part of package Sabes get depth and loss of deadwood. Rangers are helped this deal as to expansion by losing Staal’s NMC and taking on futures. Another way to view this is Reinhart - Trouba roughly =; Zuc >>> EKane, and Staal > Franson (reduced due to length of Staal contract). But Rangers get important intangibles w/moving NMC and taking on exempt Reinhart.
Focusing more on NYR side, they move a NMC vet. Kane is crapshoot w/out good odds. However, he is only 2 years left, and he has no special clauses. Deadwood costs only $, and while a very high price is paid, the return is good.
5. Nash at 50% (3.9m) with Raanta (1.0 expiring) and Halverson = (772,500 x 3 ELC) and rights to unsigned Igor Shesterkin (0.0) + Calle Andersson (661,666 expiring) + unsigned Daniel Bernhardt (0.0)+ NYR 2017 1st for Gurianov (.925m x 3 ELC) and Honka (.863 m x 3 ELC) and acceptable Dallas cap dump, possibly Ales Hemsky, 4.0m expiring. This means .Ranger cap of 6,341,666 vs. Stars cap of 5,788,000, not counting an acceptable Stars add of another 600,000 or so to make it closer to a wash.
This one is more ‘iffy’ than the others. As much as I would take less to do a package with Girardi, after scouring the rosters, I do not find anyone who will take his NMC (assuming he waived) at any price except maybe the most exorbitant overpayment not worth doing. Even without Girardi, this is a maybe because while there is a lot of value swapped back and forth, the question is will Dallas accept goaltender as part of that currency?
For Stars, Dallas is all in. Issues with net. Raanta is a cheap plus there. Long term, Halverson is NYR’s co-best G prospect with Shesty, and Halv-meister is projected to be here earlier. This helps solve their goaltending issues both this year and ongoing. Rangers can handle this cause they can do Hellberg for half a year, and once Skapski is hitting on all cylinders, can get him back where he belongs. That holds the fort with Adam Huska top candidate ready to step in as King Henrik retires. Andersson is a decent RD prospect from good Swedish background. Loss of top pick Gurianov hurts, but Nash now at half (3.9m) is reasonable given he is a former 1OA and only a year removed from 40+ g, an upgrade over Hemsky. Honka is also a former first rounder, and prize Stars cough up; this is somewhat mitigated by Ranger 1st. Bernhardt is a crap shoot; he has a lot of what is desired, but will his skating be there?
For Rangers, it is add of Honka and Gurianov who is listed as W, but originally was a C. Andersson has to go, as does the first. Nash was now, but we are getting younger, cheaper. Paramount is both these guys are expansion draft exempt.
The key here is if Dallas acknowledges it’s net problem, and wants to take these steps to deal with it.
Alternate: I had tried for a package to no avail.
first thought is Nash and/or Girardi for ______________________
try to flip for deadwood in Chara + McAvoy + Bruins cap dump, but don’t see they take Girardi, still even w/reasonable NY add.
In the last version, I had
w/Red Wings
G Raanta 1.0, expiring + RD Girardi, 5.5 x4 w/NMC
for
G Jimmy Howard (5,281,666 x 3) + acceptable cap dump around 1-1.25m
which make sense to a point on paper, but remains problematic and despite the improvement of flipping Howard for Raanta, was not a slam dunk since while this relieves some cap in net, Wings are adding cap to backline.
What we basically want here are prospects and we can take a bad contract that is not NMC.
resulting new NYR lineup:
(assume even if not at start of, by end of season, Nash and Girardi are both ultimately moved)
Kreider - Reinhart - Zib
Grabner- Hayes - Vesey
EKane - Miller - Buchnevich
Hrivik- Jooris - Jensen
Gerbe/other is depth standby if they surprise: Bickel/Franson/Moulson
it is a little early for Boo Nieves, but not so early as to dismiss him having cup of coffee by end of the year.
Gurianov, Gropp not quite there yet, but that is the future.
Skjei Pesce
Graves McIlrath
Holden Murphy
Honka is in the mix.
I am aware that I am expecting Skjei and Graves to both step up and do a McD with a fast break in to the league, and I take that risk, along with their growing pains, in exchange for the upside. While still a bit green, both have enogh experience, esp Pesce, to anchor the pair.
2nd pair I admit is different.
Went with what seemed most complementary: Graves, the rock, and Murphy, the puck mover. Whether they wind up in 2nd or 3rd pair, as long as the job gets done.
Holden looks like he can stabilize for McIlrath, who will 111% be fine if AV gets out of the way, and he will, if his sorry butt wants to remain employed.
We have improved resources including draft picks/prospects if it makes sense to add a meaningful D.
obviously, if Shattenkirk wants to come here after this season and it only costs $, we have options to move Murphy and recover assets.
Key here, even if we are still stuck w/Girardi
we get 3 exemptions on D: so Girardi, Murphy and McIlrath. Everyone else exempt except Holden is exempt.
And as to the Fs, ample protection for Kreider Miller Zib Hayes
exempt Reinhart Buchnevich Vesey Hrivik Jensen Honka Gurianov
bubble EKane Grabner-
expose Glass, etc deadwood
What do you think?
