Rumor: Offseason Rumors Thread #1 | Trade Milan, Milan So Far Away?

[belair]

Again, this is not an guarantee. This would assume RRs PP production who transfer completely from Buffalo to here. The defensive play would be a decrease. If you assume RRs PP ability does transfer smoothly to here and he continues to have the same PP production, you are looking at a net wash out between the two. So really the only reason for the trade is to switch handeness. And that's best case. So 1 for 1 it wouldn't be the worst trade in the world, but not the smartest either. When you are targeting RR, you are doing a ton of hoping, wishing and projecting

Going strictly by numbers, it's a pretty good bet. Each of the past three years he's beaten Klefbom's career best. If you want to hang some of those points on Jack Eichel, you should probably do the same for Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl as well.

And my question about your final point: What are we doing if we don't? We're putting a left shot defenseman (Russell) on his off-hand and playing either him or Matthew Benning higher up on the depth chart than they would be if this trade would be made. How is that not hoping and wishing?

 

[Aceboogie]

Darnell Nurse played top pairing minutes this season with Adam Larsson. Adam Larsson was acquired to shut down opposition's top offensive lines. He would continue to do so with Andrej Sekera.

Rasmus Ristolainen doesn't require 'heavy sheltering'. He's got one of the heaviest workloads in the NHL as of this past season. 26 minutes a night on the NHL's worst offensive team. He simply wouldn't have to do that here. He'd be a primary offensive defenseman and he'd get paired with the aforementioned Nurse, who wouldn't be facing the other team's top matchups like he did this past year. I don't see how you think that'd be a wash. Klefbom's career high in points is 39 and he's done it once in a five year NHL career. Ristolainen has topped that each of the past three seasons and he's a year younger.

The fact is that the Oilers PP was one of its biggest crutches last season and Oscar Klefbom was a part of it for much of the season. Ristolainen is one of the league's elite PP QBs. He had 23 points on the PP this year, Klef had six.

A straight up swap of these two checks the boxes for us.

These two things contradict each other. He doesn't need sheltering, but wouldn't have to have a tough workload here? That is what sheltering is. Yes he had a tough workload, but did he do well in those minutes. Its the same thing that happened to Justin Schultz in 2013. Tough minutes, #1 level minutes, but no success

The whole Oilers PP sucked this year due to shooting a league low shooting %. Here is the PP comparison for last year when Oilers and Buffalos PP was similar. RRs PP ability is better than Klefboms, but its not dramatically better. Especially considering RRs majority of points on the PP were secondary. Primary PP points was 3 more in 40 more minutes.:

Even more, if you read Buffalos board, even they say that Buffalos PP ran thru Eichel, not RR, so PP QB is a bit of a misnomer. Hes still great on the PP, but Id be hesitant to call him one of the better ones in the league as Id reserve that for D who run PPs themselves

 

[BigTime99]

Am I the only one still on the Mike Green bandwagon?

2 year deal 3.5-4.5mil per max. Serves his purpose until expansion draft, at that time bear and/or 10OA are ready to play in the NHL.

 

[belair]

I like Risto but man some of you are overating him.

He’s not a good transition passer or player. In fact I think he’s actually a poor passer. His passes seem to be off the mark a lot. Not something that would be good if we acquired him. He also makes some really bone headed bad plays defensively. He is very inconsistent. He is a weapon on the PP I’ll give you that.

But giving up Klef and #10 is ludicrous for him. I’d give up #10 for him and add a prospect. But no way I touch him if Klef is also included. I’d be hesitant to trade Klef straight up for him but can understand if some would. But that would be a lateral trade IMO

How is he a weapon on the PP if he's a bad passer?

 

[Aceboogie]

Going strictly by numbers, it's a pretty good bet. Each of the past three years he's beaten Klefbom's career best. If you want to hang some of those points on Jack Eichel, you should probably do the same for Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl as well.

And my question about your final point: What are we doing if we don't? We're putting a left shot defenseman (Russell) on his off-hand and playing either him or Matthew Benning higher up on the depth chart than they would be if this trade would be made. How is that not hoping and wishing?

Klefbom has considerable better 5x5 points and better defensive metrics. I will attribute a fair amount of those points to McDavid, but Ill do the same for RR with Eichel. RR has better PP numbers due to having some of the highest secondary secondary PP assists in the league

Id find another second pairing RD and Id pay FMV for him. I would have no hesitation putting good prospects or the 10th in play. I would trade the 10th overall ++ for RR even. I would not put a tremendous amount of focus on improving the PP as the shooting % will naturally bounce back. Under Woddcroft in 2016/17 with a normal shooting % it was top 10 in the league. I don't think the PP magically stopped working, the shooting % just plunged. I would look to help the PP out if possible, but that wouldn't be the first concern. The main concern is the D core at even strength is still not good, and changing Klefbom for RR just makes the problems worse

 

[Aceboogie]

Am I the only one still on the Mike Green bandwagon?

Ive been on it for a year now. Mike Green would be an incredible fit. Vet, RD and a PP option

 

[rambo97]

Man screw Risto and everyone else...go get Parayko. Him and McDavid have looked magical together

 

[rambo97]

How is he a weapon on the PP if he's a bad passer?

I’m referring to his shot obviously

 

[belair]

These two things contradict each other. He doesn't need sheltering, but wouldn't have to have a tough workload here? That is what sheltering is. Yes he had a tough workload, but did he do well in those minutes. Its the same thing that happened to Justin Schultz in 2013. Tough minutes, #1 level minutes, but no success

What Buffalo has done with him prior to this season is basically feeding him to the wolves. NOT doing that isn't considered 'sheltering' in my books. A good team, a good coach puts a player in a position to succeed. The Oilers needs coincide with what this player needs to be utilized properly at this point in his career.

The whole Oilers PP sucked this year due to shooting a league low shooting %. Here is the PP comparison for last year when Oilers and Buffalos PP was similar. RRs PP ability is better than Klefboms, but its not dramatically better. Especially considering RRs majority of points on the PP were secondary. Primary PP points was 3 more in 40 more minutes.:

View attachment 121507

Even more, if you read Buffalos board, even they say that Buffalos PP ran thru Eichel, not RR, so PP QB is a bit of a misnomer. Hes still great on the PP, but Id be hesitant to call him one of the better ones in the league as Id reserve that for D who run PPs themselves

That chart still shows me a more productive PP defenseman playing a position we need to direly fill with limited options available.

Also, I agree PPQB is a misnomer. Much like 'top pairing defenseman' is on the Edmonton Oilers. A healthy Edmonton Oilers roster runs a balanced top four where four defenseman average between 20-22 minutes of ice-time per game.

 

[belair]

I’m referring to his shot obviously

The majority of his points on the PP over the past two seasons are assists.

 

[rambo97]

The majority of his points on the PP over the past two seasons are assists.

lol

Really? How do you think those assists were generated? He shot the damn puck, created rebounds that were converted by his team giving him assists.

You don’t have to believe me that he’s a poor passer. Go read the Sabres board. They acknowledge it as well. But I’m sure you know more than they do because all they do is watch the player regularly

 

[Aceboogie]

lol

Really? How do you think those assists were generated? He shot the damn puck, created rebounds that were converted by his team giving him assists.

2 goals on the PP in the last 2 season. Among the leader in secondary assists- you creating a bit of a story. If his shot was so lethal, hed have more than 1 goal per season

 

[Aceboogie]

What Buffalo has done with him prior to this season is basically feeding him to the wolves. NOT doing that isn't considered 'sheltering' in my books. A good team, a good coach puts a player in a position to succeed. The Oilers needs coincide with what this player needs to be utilized properly at this point in his career.



That chart still shows me a more productive PP defenseman playing a position we need to direly fill with limited options available.

Also, I agree PPQB is a misnomer. Much like 'top pairing defenseman' is on the Edmonton Oilers. A healthy Edmonton Oilers roster runs a balanced top four where four defenseman average between 20-22 minutes of ice-time per game.

I dont disagree that he hasnt played tough minutes. But he requires sheltering if you are saying he wont have to play the tough minutes like he does in Buffalo. Someone has to, and thatll be Larsson, who I think every Oiler fan can agree didnt excel there. Klefbom has atleast shown he can excel in top pairing duties. Yes it was only for a season, but its still something

He is productive on the PP, but I am of the thought the PP will be fine and 2016/17 showed that. If your opinion is that the PP is completely broken, than I can see how you'd desire RR more

 

[Aceboogie]

I've dug a bit deeper into his pp numbers to see how much impact his volume of secondary assists has, and it did not flatter him at all

Over the last 2 seasons, he is in the top 10 for PP points amongst D, but over half are secondary assists. 21 primary PP points is still good, but hes played amongst the most pp time in the league. His primary points per 60 is around 40th for D with over 50 minutes on the pp. It's similar to lower end PP "qbs" in schultz, Miller, edler.
Not to mention, he has 2 PP goals in the last 2 years

Hes still good on the PP, but I'm not convinced hes in the top 10 or maybe even 15 for D on the PP. Hes nothing to sneeze at, just not elite and a big beneficiary of secondary assists

Anyway, Ill hop out of the discussion on RR. I just wanted to provide some further info on his stats. I think at this time, everything that can be said has been said and highlighted. 10th + Klefbom would be horrible, Klefbom straight up would be defensible if the situation was dire but I personally would do it. Look at a guy like Mike Green first

 

[A91]

2 year deal 3.5-4.5mil per max. Serves his purpose until expansion draft, at that time bear and/or 10OA are ready to play in the NHL.

We would likely have to move out Russ or Regey to add another ~5 million price on the D.
I'd be down with that - Green has game.

 

[A91]

Sign Vanek 2y x 2.5m
Sign Hansen 1y 1m
Sign Green 2y x 5m

Sekera to MTL for Byron

Byron and Hansen are speedy foreards and can PK very well.
Vanek is a stopgap offensive winger while we wait for Yammo and Pulju.

RNH - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Lucic - Draisaitl - Vanek
Byron - Strome - Hansen
Khaira - Caggiula - Kassian
Aberg/Rattie

Nurse - Green
Klefbom - Larsson
Russel - Benning
Persson

Talbot
Koskinen

All the players brought in are high quality hard working guys. I think we need more of that.

This is the patient while still competing approach. We use our picks and pray we have a big draft and that the prospect from last draft pan out. Then in 1-2 years we will be the Boston of this season
Cap will be tight

 

[belair]

Ignoring the defense, I'm kind of coming around to the idea of Thomas Vanek on a one or a two year deal, but I think you're paying him a bit more than $2.5m on a deal considering his production over the past several seasons.

I think Jannik Hansen is probably one of the most logical options out there along with former Canuck, Shawn Matthias who I mentioned some time ago. Both are players looking to re-establish themselves as NHLers and both have made their names killing penalties in the past.

Another player I'd be very surprised not to sign here on July 1st is Austin Czarnik. I think there will be some healthy competition for those three top wing slots at training camp.

 

[A91]

Ignoring the defense, I'm kind of coming around to the idea of Thomas Vanek on a one or a two year deal, but I think you're paying him a bit more than $2.5m on a deal considering his production over the past several seasons.

I think Jannik Hansen is probably one of the most logical options out there along with former Canuck, Shawn Matthias who I mentioned some time ago. Both are players looking to re-establish themselves as NHLers and both have made their names killing penalties in the past.

Another player I'd be very surprised not to sign here on July 1st is Austin Czarnik. I think there will be some healthy competition for those three top wing slots at training camp.

Vanek is an excellent regular season winger. Can play both wings and PP, every offseason I'm surprised by how little salary he gets.
You may be right. I'd go up to 3.5 on Vanek if the cap works out.

 

[Little Fury]

Darnell Nurse played top pairing minutes this season with Adam Larsson. Adam Larsson was acquired to shut down opposition's top offensive lines. He would continue to do so with Andrej Sekera.

Adam Larsson's strengths are most apparent when he's paired with a player who can move the puck. To expect him (and by extension, the team) to succeed when he's paired with a 32 year old coming off a major knee injury that basically cost him an entire season is a bad bet for a team looking to make the playoffs.

Rasmus Ristolainen doesn't require 'heavy sheltering'. He's got one of the heaviest workloads in the NHL as of this past season. 26 minutes a night on the NHL's worst offensive team.

And how'd he do in those minutes? I'll tell you: he got filled in. He's lousy at preventing zone entries, his shot suppression numbers stink and he doesn't seem very good at moving the puck.

He simply wouldn't have to do that here. He'd be a primary offensive defenseman and he'd get paired with the aforementioned Nurse, who wouldn't be facing the other team's top matchups like he did this past year.

See I agree that'd be a decent second pairing. The problem is you've pushed Sekera up into a slot he has no business being in with no safety net.

I don't see how you think that'd be a wash. Klefbom's career high in points is 38 and he's done it once in a five year NHL career. Ristolainen has topped that each of the past three seasons and he's a year younger.

Klefbom is better defensively and better offensively at 5v5, which is far more valuable. He also makes $1.3M a year less than Risto and is signed for one more year. There's no question that Klefbom, when healthy, is better than Risto. The only question is his health.

The fact is that the Oilers PP was one of its biggest crutches last season and Oscar Klefbom was a part of it for much of the season. Ristolainen is one of the league's elite PP QBs. He had 23 points on the PP this year, Klef had six.

Oscar Klefbom put up 16 PP points on the 5th ranked PP in the league in 16-17. The idea that the success of the PP depends on adding a RH shooter doesn't really hold up when you take that season's success into account.

A straight up swap of these two checks the boxes for us.

It also blows a hole in our left side depth and makes us a worse team at evens while adding more money to an already tight cap situation. All to fill a hole that doesn't really need to be filled.

 

[A91]

I'm torn on Sekera
On one hand, I really think he will recover from the ACL rehab, but will go back to the Sekera who was exactly worth his 5.5 million cap hit? (For 3 more seasons) Anything worse then that and he's overpaid.
And if he doesn't recover and plays like how he did this season for the rest of his contract, that will be 11.5 million in two anchors. Just cant afford it.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I'm torn on Sekera
On one hand, I really think he will recover from the ACL rehab, but will go back to the Sekera who was exactly worth his 5.5 million cap hit? (For 3 more seasons) Anything worse then that and he's overpaid.
And if he doesn't recover and plays like how he did this season for the rest of his contract, that will be 11.5 million in two anchors. Just cant afford it.

Ill keep sekera just for shitgrinning getzlaf in the playoffs. Its all I need.

 

[Little Fury]

And my question about your final point: What are we doing if we don't? We're putting a left shot defenseman (Russell) on his off-hand and playing either him or Matthew Benning higher up on the depth chart than they would be if this trade would be made. How is that not hoping and wishing?

Sekera's played the right side in the past and I feel more confident in his ability to do so in second pairing minutes than I do him playing against the toughest competition.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Anyone partial to picking up Komarov? Should be on the cheaper side of UFA signings given his point production last year, is known for being a good locker room guy, as management seems to think we were lacking that element in the absence of Hendricks. Is also ofcourse physical and can PK, he also speaks 5 different languages one of them being Finnish. The primary reason I'd want him is for the locker room element and I think he might be the right guy (mentor) to bring the best out in Puljujarvi.

 

[belair]

Adam Larsson's strengths are most apparent when he's paired with a player who can move the puck. To expect him (and by extension, the team) to succeed when he's paired with a 32 year old coming off a major knee injury that basically cost him an entire season is a bad bet for a team looking to make the playoffs.

And how'd he do in those minutes? I'll tell you: he got filled in. He's lousy at preventing zone entries, his shot suppression numbers stink and he doesn't seem very good at moving the puck.

See I agree that'd be a decent second pairing. The problem is you've pushed Sekera up into a slot he has no business being in with no safety net.

Klefbom is better defensively and better offensively at 5v5, which is far more valuable. He also makes $1.3M a year less than Risto and is signed for one more year. There's no question that Klefbom, when healthy, is better than Risto. The only question is his health.

Oscar Klefbom put up 16 PP points on the 5th ranked PP in the league in 16-17. The idea that the success of the PP depends on adding a RH shooter doesn't really hold up when you take that season's success into account.

It also blows a hole in our left side depth and makes us a worse team at evens while adding more money to an already tight cap situation. All to fill a hole that doesn't really need to be filled.

I think it's absolutely ridiculous people look at these 5v5 stats and pin it directly to a player and assume it'll follow them wherever they go. I can appreciate that he's not a defenseman who should be playing at the rate he has up to this point in his career. I can admit this is a player you don't want out there facing the other team's top offensive threats. But he's exactly what this team is searching for--a young, high end right shot offensive defenseman.

The propping up of Oscar Klefbom is also something else. It's as if he's the only defenseman on the left side that is reliable on this team, when Darnell Nurse proved to be very capable this past season. Are we going to wait and play Andrej Sekera on the bottom pairing next season and watch Oscar Klefbom dangle another RD above their heads before we decide to do something? What is it going to take to show people Andrej Sekera has 'returned to form'? On this roster he's a bottom pairing defenseman.

I have no issue with downgrading the left side if it means strengthening the right, adding a RH PP option and giving us a younger player who likes to get physically engaged. The idea would be to add a decent LH #7d on a short term deal via FA and they are plentiful this summer so if for whatever reason Sekera is not physically able, there is an in-house option to cover the minutes temporarily and with Sekera on LTIR, there is the cap space to address the much less dire issue at LD.

This is a healthy Oilers depth chart today...

Nurse - Larsson
Klefbom - Benning<<
Sekera - Russell

You're telling me there isn't a hole that needs to be filled?

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I think it's absolutely ridiculous people look at these 5v5 stats and pin it directly to a player and assume it'll follow them wherever they go. I can appreciate that he's not a defenseman who should be playing at the rate he has up to this point in his career. I can admit this is a player you don't want out there facing the other team's top offensive threats. But he's exactly what this team is searching for--a young, high end right shot offensive defenseman.

The propping up of Oscar Klefbom is also something else. It's as if he's the only defenseman on the left side that is reliable on this team, when Darnell Nurse proved to be very capable this past season. Are we going to wait and play Andrej Sekera on the bottom pairing next season and watch Oscar Klefbom dangle another RD above their heads before we decide to do something? What is it going to take to show people Andrej Sekera has 'returned to form'? On this roster he's a bottom pairing defenseman.

I have no issue with downgrading the left side if it means strengthening the right, adding a RH PP option and giving us a younger player who likes to get physically engaged. The idea would be to add a decent LH #7d on a short term deal via FA and they are plentiful this summer so if for whatever reason Sekera is not physically able, there is an in-house option to cover the minutes temporarily and with Sekera on LTIR, there is the cap space to address the much less dire issue at LD.

This is a healthy Oilers depth chart today...

Nurse - Larsson
Klefbom - Benning<<
Sekera - Russell

You're telling me there isn't a hole that needs to be filled?

Nurse had an uneven season he was worse in the 2nd half than he was the first half (hasn't been particularly impressive in the World Championships either), if Sekera is truly "healthy" he'll be top 4 not Benning. Benning also will have some competition for his job in Bear and Persson, not sure either will be able to steal a spot in the first half of next season, but on the back half they should be gunning for his job. Also going to point out all of Sekera, Nurse, and Klef have some experience playing the right side.