Prospect Info: [Official]: 2017 Draft Thread

[FLAMESFAN]

Topic of discussion just because: if we were to draft Kostin, would you guys want him marinating for another year in the KHL, or coming to acclimate to NA in the AHL right away? I think an argument can be made for either.

Acclimatizing is one of the biggest threats with these guys, so get him here ASAP. AHL this year for sure.
I was pegging him to be around our spot (mid 1st) right from the beginning of the year (with Veselainen). He dropped after injuries on almost all lists, into the 2nd rnd. He must have had a great combine because now he's back to mid 1st in almost all rankings.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Acclimatizing is one of the biggest threats with these guys, so get him here ASAP. AHL this year for sure.
I was pegging him to be around our spot (mid 1st) right from the beginning of the year (with Veselainen). He dropped after injuries on almost all lists, into the 2nd rnd. He must have had a great combine because now he's back to mid 1st in almost all rankings.

If we take Kostin (I don't have a strong opinion on him either way). I would agree that getting him to NA as soon as possible would be really important. Get him into the AHL, help him learn English, 2-3 years from that point is when you could expect him to make the NHL.

 

[Dack]

Suzuki is ranked 12th by Bob McKenzie, dear god I hope he falls he's a likely 60 point player.

Also take it how you like but so far Flames social media pages have done two previews on draft players. Foote and Poehling in the first post of Footes video they mentioned he was ranked 12th by ISS and then skiped the next two players and went to 15th for Poehling. Both of whom are in Buttons top 15.

To follow this up they still haven't previewed any other players... I'd bet on one of these two as our pick unless one of the top 10, Liljegren or Suzuki falls. So I thought I'd update my thoughts on our 4 most likely picks imo.


Suzuki: It would be awesome if he fell and I do think there is a legitimate chance that happens. He's really good; I think he is a good bet to make the NHL and has high upside. Someone on the prospect board compared him to Arvidsson he needs to improve his skating but he has the talent to be a 60 point player. I haven't really had any changed thoughts on him he's still underrated in this draft and should be a first liner for whoever picks him.

Liljegren: I like him more than I liked Kylington in his draft year. Kylington to me has a problem with skating himself into trouble and I don't think Liljegren does. He's awesome at finding the right route to take to gain the zone. I'm also not all that worried about the defensive side of his game he is adept at stopping players from entering the zone with his great skating ability the only time he might struggle would be when he's forced to guard a player in front of the net, because he's simply not big enough yet. I doubt he'll be the next Erik Karlsson because that would mean he's the best D-man in the NHL but I have no issue thinking he could be a bigger better defensively Tyson Barrie.

Foote: He's big and good defensively however I don't think he has as much offensive upside as most do. I do think he's a good bet to make the NHL in a middle pairing role with the upside of a top pairing player. He's been compared to Weber and it's a fair comparison for his max upside they play similarly and were both Kelowna Rockets. I think he's most likely to end up more around Hamonic level which to me is right between a 3 and a 4 D-man. A rockets fan said that this year he seemed less dynamic than last year and questioned if it was due to the coaching changed, so maybe he has more offensive upside than I gave him credit for. The Flames compared him to Seth Jones which seems off to me, Jones is a good skater at any size where as Callan is only good for his size. Jones also had shown much more offensive upside in Junior, however I think Foote is better defensively.

Poehling: I tabbed this guy as a Flames pick couple of months back. He has really good hands for tipping the puck but there's very little video on him at all. I've heard that when he's at his best he is dominant. He's also already finished his first year of college so I'm wondering will he be a UFA in three years? The Flames compared him to Travis Zajac and said that despite maybe not having #1C upside they felt he could be a really good #2C.

 

[tfong]

Button has us taking Lias Andersson. Can't say that bothers me. A safe NHLer that can play top nine since we have quite a few high risk picks throughout the roster now, we could use a solid player especially with so many question marks this draft.

Backlund 2.0!

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Button has us taking Lias Andersson. Can't say that bothers me. A safe NHLer that can play top nine since we have quite a few high risk picks throughout the roster now, we could use a solid player especially with so many question marks this draft.

Backlund 2.0!

I would be super okay with this. I've grown very attached to him and Suzuki since I started really looking at this year's draft eligibles.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Button has us taking Lias Andersson. Can't say that bothers me. A safe NHLer that can play top nine since we have quite a few high risk picks throughout the roster now, we could use a solid player especially with so many question marks this draft.

I'm not feeling this train of thought. Chances are if you're already projecting an 18YO to be just a 2nd liner at best, he'll probably just end up a fourth liner (Curtis Lazar comes to mind). I'd rather take a swing at any guy with 1st line/1st pair upside and see where that goes.

I don't mean to write off Andersson though. If they feel there's legitimate Zetterberg type potential there then why the heck not? I am just saying that perceived safe picks are no safer than risky picks. Offensive upside is always the most valuable thing you can draft because it's the thing that's least likely to improve as a player develops. Backlund turned out a great two way player but he was drafted with more offensive upside than what finally he became. I know there were top line projections thrown around and I recall that he actually fell pretty hard in the draft, making Backlund more similar to Liljegren than Andersson.

 

[Sparky93]

Suzuki, Foote and Kostin, in that order

 

[BigRangy]

I'm not feeling this train of thought. Chances are if you're already projecting an 18YO to be just a 2nd liner at best, he'll probably just end up a fourth liner (Curtis Lazar comes to mind). I'd rather take a swing at any guy with 1st line/1st pair upside and see where that goes.

I don't mean to write off Andersson though. If they feel there's legitimate Zetterberg type potential there then why the heck not? I am just saying that perceived safe picks are no safer than risky picks. Offensive upside is always the most valuable thing you can draft because it's the thing that's least likely to improve as a player develops. Backlund turned out a great two way player but he was drafted with more offensive upside than what finally he became. I know there were top line projections thrown around and I recall that he actually fell pretty hard in the draft, making Backlund more similar to Liljegren than Andersson.

Andersson's offensive upside is really being underrated by everyone this year. He certainly has top line upside, just like Backlund did. His draft-1 SuperElit production points to a player who could put up some serious numbers.

 

[Sparky93]

Andersson's offensive upside is really being underrated by everyone this year. He certainly has top line upside, just like Backlund did. His draft-1 SuperElit production points to a player who could put up some serious numbers.

Backlund took 10 years to break 40 points in the NHL, it is safe to say his top line up side was very overrated. I, for one, would not be happy picking a guy that took 10 years to have a break out season. We need safe picks, that can contribute sooner, rather than later, even if the ceiling isn't as high.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Andersson is only safe in the sense that he is already producing in one of the toughest leagues in the world. If he was playing against a bunch of kids he would be putting up ridiculous #s, go through the hype machine that is the CHL and everyone would be talking about how elite he is

His perceived lack of elite potential sounds a lot like when people question other peoples ceilings ie Tkachuk, Trouba. Players that were clearly performing at an extremely high level yet, somehow they got stuck with an unnecessary label that scared scouts away. Tkachuk is a complimentary player, Trouba has no offensive potential...

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Andersson's offensive upside is really being underrated by everyone this year. He certainly has top line upside, just like Backlund did. His draft-1 SuperElit production points to a player who could put up some serious numbers.

Fair enough.

Backlund took 10 years to break 40 points in the NHL

...Backlund produced at a 40+ point pace in his draft+7, Draft+8, Draft+9 seasons. It's safe to say the only reason he didn't produce before then was because of Sutter's system/lack of coaching instilling confidence to play his own game. His production doubled under Hartley. When skilled players are worried about being benched for trying skilled plays, their production falls off the map. We saw it with Backlund, and we saw it last year with Bennett. But Backlund always had potential to be a top line guy and definitely a top 6 guy. Last year where he was a top all situation center in the NHL wasn't a fluke... it's been coming for years.

it is safe to say his top line up side was very overrated.

--> Literally just played top line last year in the less scoring-fixated modern sense.

I, for one, would not be happy picking a guy that took 10 years to have a break out season

The draft isn't about picking who is ready. It's about picking who can help the team in the future. That's why our best picks have been guys like Gaudreau, Brodie and Jankowski.

We need safe picks, that can contribute sooner, rather than later, even if the ceiling isn't as high.

Bzzt.
Incorrect. We need whomever is most likely to help this team win a(or multiple) championship someday. The current core's window should have zero bearing on that.

Andersson is only safe in the sense that he is already producing in one of the toughest leagues in the world. If he was playing against a bunch of kids he would be putting up ridiculous #s, go through the hype machine that is the CHL and everyone would be talking about how elite he is

It appears that you're correct:

The safe pick angle is definitely being overplayed.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Backlund took 10 years to break 40 points in the NHL, it is safe to say his top line up side was very overrated. I, for one, would not be happy picking a guy that took 10 years to have a break out season. We need safe picks, that can contribute sooner, rather than later, even if the ceiling isn't as high.

Eh this is a disingenuous point. He failed to reach 40 points because he spent half of every season injured. Not because he lacked scoring ability. Even before his last 2 seasons he hovered just below .5ppg

 

[Calculon]

We need safe picks, that can contribute sooner, rather than later, even if the ceiling isn't as high.

You really want more Pelech's, Chucko's, Nemisz's and Erixon's? Because that's what that strategy gets you.

As mentioned previously, picking the safe bet to be a 3rd liner usually means you're getting an AHL'er. Thankfully, Treliving's already said he's going with a risky high reward pick this Friday. Hopefully it's one of Suzuki or Liljegren. Could live with Lias Andersson but given his position, it's more likely he'd be traded at some point for an actual right shot right winger. Well, either him or one of Tkachuk/Gaudreau.

 

[BigRangy]

It appears that you're correct:

The safe pick angle is definitely being overplayed.

That the great thing about Andersson, he's a safe pick because he's already playing pro but he's got top end talent as well. I don't know whether or not he's got more absolute upside than an option like Vesalainen or Kostin but I'm a lot more confident that Andersson will play top 6 eventually than either of those guys.

 

[Sparky93]

Eh this is a disingenuous point. He failed to reach 40 points because he spent half of every season injured. Not because he lacked scoring ability. Even before his last 2 seasons he hovered just below .5ppg

And if we drafted Andersson now and he doesn't hit the 40 point mark, for whatever reason, for the next decade, would you consider that a successful pick?

Andersson wasn't exactly leading the charge, he was 9th in scoring, on a very good team. I feel far more confident drafting a kid like Foote, who is a team need and has been a cornerstone of his CHL club, albeit a kids team.

 

[InfinityIggy]

And if we drafted Andersson now and he doesn't hit the 40 point mark, for whatever reason, for the next decade, would you consider that a successful pick?

Andersson wasn't exactly leading the charge, he was 9th in scoring, on a very good team. I feel far more confident drafting a kid like Foote, who is a team need and has been a cornerstone of his CHL club, albeit a kids team.

I was just defending Backlund

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

And if we drafted Andersson now and he doesn't hit the 40 point mark, for whatever reason, for the next decade, would you consider that a successful pick?

If he is a good hockey player who, forwhatever reason, doesn't hit the 40 point mark? At 16th OA that'd be a win. Look at Sean Couturier, who satisfies your classification six years into his career. Most would call him a fine pick at 8th overall with only Dougie Hamilton being better (yes, I'd rather have Dougie) from 8-30.

I feel far more confident drafting a kid like Foote, who is a team need and has been a cornerstone of his CHL club, albeit a kids team.

Foote's a bigger bust-risk than Liljegren or Kostin. If you think he's safe you're kidding yourself. He's exactly the low-ceiling kind of pick that could flop out entirely (remember Griffin Reinhart?) that we're talking about when we say don't overvalue safe play in prospects. A lot of the "boom-bust" guys that people label, end up having solid careers as the Nick Leddy types. The Callan Foote types are the ones who can never take the next step to even be NHLers because they don't have one ability that gets their foot in the door. And I like Callan Foote. Just not in the first round. He's more Tyler Wotherspoon than safe pick.

 

[Sparky93]

I was just defending Backlund

I know!

 

[Sparky93]

If he is a good hockey player who, forwhatever reason, doesn't hit the 40 point mark? At 16th OA that'd be a win. Look at Sean Couturier, who satisfies your classification six years into his career. Most would call him a fine pick at 8th overall with only Dougie Hamilton being better (yes, I'd rather have Dougie) from 8-30.



Foote's a bigger bust-risk than Liljegren or Kostin. If you think he's safe you're kidding yourself. He's exactly the low-ceiling kind of pick that could flop out entirely (remember Griffin Reinhart?) that we're talking about when we say don't overvalue safe play in prospects. A lot of the "boom-bust" guys that people label, end up having solid careers as the Nick Leddy types. The Callan Foote types are the ones who can never take the next step to even be NHLers because they don't have one ability that gets their foot in the door. And I like Callan Foote. Just not in the first round. He's more Tyler Wotherspoon than safe pick.

Foote is already a better player than Reinhart. We're talking 16th, not 4th, there's some element of risk in anyone selected in that range. The only knock I've ever even heard about Foote is foot speed, something that can be improved or even supplemented by playing with a fast guy like Brodie. He's one of the safest picks in the entire draft....with a pretty good upside. Witherspoon produced 12 points in his draft year, they are not comparable.

 

[Meatpuppet42]

You really want more Pelech's, Chucko's, Nemisz's and Erixon's? Because that's what that strategy gets you.

As mentioned previously, picking the safe bet to be a 3rd liner usually means you're getting an AHL'er. Thankfully, Treliving's already said he's going with a risky high reward pick this Friday. Hopefully it's one of Suzuki or Liljegren. Could live with Lias Andersson but given his position, it's more likely he'd be traded at some point for an actual right shot right winger. Well, either him or one of Tkachuk/Gaudreau.

Nooooo. First round flops are as much fun as a sandpaper *****
(dead pool)

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Foote is a hell of a player. Saying that he doesn't have upside is mind boggling to me. He's a beast in his own zone, and he's got the skills to chip in. 4 years down the road people will wonder why he wasn't picked higher.

That said if we are talking about highest potentials/value in our range. To me it's Yamamoto, Foote or Valimaki. Yamamoto just has ridiculous skill level and compete. Valimaki is a 6'2" defencemen that is physical, can score and move the puck. Who has more value then D-men? No one.

But we can't really say who the highest potential is. It's all perceived potential. It's not an A rating like a player gets get in NHL 12. I think people forget that sometimes.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

And if we drafted Andersson now and he doesn't hit the 40 point mark, for whatever reason, for the next decade, would you consider that a successful pick?

Andersson wasn't exactly leading the charge, he was 9th in scoring, on a very good team. I feel far more confident drafting a kid like Foote, who is a team need and has been a cornerstone of his CHL club, albeit a kids team.

If he ends up like Backlund, it's absolutely a successful pick. And it doesn't matter if he was 9th in scoring on a very good team, because that team was in the second best professional league outside of the NHL and he did about 80% of his scoring at even strength.

There's nothing about Foote that I find particularly intriguing. He looks exactly like the majority of "good defensive dmen" in Junior who have a 2nd pair ceiling and are just as likely to be a 6th D as a 4th (assuming he makes it at all).

 

[Sparky93]

If he ends up like Backlund, it's absolutely a successful pick. And it doesn't matter if he was 9th in scoring on a very good team, because that team was in the second best professional league outside of the NHL and he did about 80% of his scoring at even strength.

There's nothing about Foote that I find particularly intriguing. He looks exactly like the majority of "good defensive dmen" in Junior who have a 2nd pair ceiling and are just as likely to be a 6th D as a 4th (assuming he makes it at all).

How much of Andersson have you actually watched?

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

How much of Andersson have you actually watched?

Why doesn't Andersson have potential though? That's what I don't understand. Because he doesn't play in junior and therefor isn't dominant offensively? Because he's sound defensively means he can't be a good offensive player? Can anyone find me some info on draft eligible players in the SHL, because honestly people almost never have success in the SHL in their draft year. And if that isn't a testament to talent, then I don't know what is

 

[Sparky93]

Why doesn't Andersson have potential though? That's what I don't understand. Because he doesn't play in junior and therefor isn't dominant offensively? Because he's sound defensively means he can't be a good offensive player? Can anyone find me some info on draft eligible players in the SHL, because honestly people almost never have success in the SHL in their draft year. And if that isn't a testament to talent, then I don't know what is

Well for starters he's a 98 birthday, only 3 months younger than Dube and IMO, wasn't anymore impressive at the juniors, despite playing a regular shift in a mans league. He's almost a full year older than guys like Vilardi, Suzuki, Vesalainen and 6 months older than Kostin. Kids can make huge leaps, development wise in that time frame. The kid could turn out great, no one really knows, but he isn't my pick and he doesn't strike me as having the upside that some believe.