Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Discussion 2022

[Avilaj07]

Gurriel, Kirk and a pitching prospect for Reynolds, and then sign Bellinger as well. OF of Bellinger, Reynolds and Springer would be phenomenal

 

[Blitzkrug]

The big question with Reynolds is if the Pirates have any interest in our catchers. If they don't want catchers then we don't have a chance. Fingers crossed lol

This is where it gets complicated. Pittsburgh's top prospect is a catcher in Henry Davis, drafted first overall in 2021.

In theory, that means a package for Reynolds from Toronto's point of view probably starts with something the majority of the fanbase wouldn't feel comfortable giving up (Tiedemann)

 

[kb]

Pittsburgh's catching riches rivals the Jays. There is no deal to be made with our catchers there. They have Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis coming soon.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Theory: trick the Pirates into thinking putting catchers all over your infield is the way of the future ala how the Padres can't help but having their entire infield be former shortstops.

It's the Pirates. Surely they're dumb enough to fall for it.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Pittsburgh's catching riches rivals the Jays. There is no deal to be made with our catchers there. They have Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis coming soon.

Yeah any deal here probably requires a third team.

 

[kb]

Yeah any deal here probably requires a third team.

Or giving up other pieces that might be veeeeery painful to give up.

 

[Blitzkrug]

There's a couple lines of thinking here in regards to what the Pirates do

Pittsburgh isn't apparently super high on Henry Davis as a catcher. There's some feelings internally he would project better as a corner outfielder or first baseman. This doesn't really solve that entirely since the guy behind him in Endy Rodriguez is considered by many to be either the best catching prospect in the game ahead of guys like Gabriel Moreno and Francisco Alverez or at minimum top two.

At the same time, in a lot of cases with trades (especially a guy who asks out and does significant damage to your leverage) its just about maximizing value or getting the best prospect available. Depending what else is out there, a guy like a Moreno or even Kirk might still be good enough as a centerpiece regardless of position. It's happened lots before. Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson were both catchers by trade as they went pro but their organizations had different plans, turning them into an outfielder and third baseman respectively. Maybe they like Moreno enough to take him, and then they decide hey maybe this guy works better for us as a first baseman. This makes it possible, but still difficult since i have to imagine multiple teams will be blowing up Ben Cherington's phone to try and acquire Reynolds and those teams will likely have stuff that fits the Pirates ask better.

Another interesting tidbit is Ben Cherington has tried to acquire Kirk and Moreno multiple times in the past and knows the Jays farm system since he was VP here from 2016-2019

Edit: And there's also this;

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

I actually think we could see a three way trade between the Jays-Pirates-Dbacks. Jays get Reynolds. Dbacks get Kirk or Moreno. Pirates get young outfielder from Dbacks and couple jays prospects like Barger and Santos.

 

[saska sault]

Go get Reynolds, a starting pitcher and a bullpen arm and get ready for spring training. Danny Jansen, Espinal and a middle prospect?

 

[kb]

Go get Reynolds, a starting pitcher and a bullpen arm and get ready for spring training. Danny Jansen, Espinal and a middle prospect?

Pitts doesn't really need catching at this stage.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Pitts doesn't really need catching at this stage.

That's why a 3 way trade makes sense. Lots of teams need catchers.

Jays could shop around Kirk or Moreno and then ask what pieces off those teams would interest the Pirates in a deal for Reynolds.

 

[Canada4Gold]

3 team trade by far makes the most sense. It's always difficult finding a team who has excess in a position you need wants to compete has a need where you have excess, and you can agree on value. But teams trade good players for prospects literally all the time. Just have to match that up twice. What prospects are the Cardinals(or someone else) willing to give up for Kirk/Moreno, and what prospects from the Cardinals do the Pirates want for Reynolds? Of course you can mix and match with some of our prospects to make it work as well.

Moreno for Reynolds for Winn/Hence/Burleson?

 

[Discoverer]

I wouldn't completely write off the possibility of trading a catcher to Pittsburgh. I guess in the end that's basically a three-way trade, but it doesn't all have to happen together. If the Jays offer Kirk for Reynolds and no one else is offering a single piece as good as Kirk, they can always pull the trigger and then start shopping around one of the other catchers.

Jansen probably doesn't make much sense for them because of the limited control, but all three of the Jays catchers (even Moreno) are more proven than the Pirates prospects. I have to imagine the Pirates would have interest in adding someone whose potential is at least as high as their own guys but who's more of a sure thing.

 

[canucksfan]

Problem with Reynolds is his defense isn't good.

 

[SoupNazi]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I feel like Pitt will want Barriera in return. I'd do it if the package included Bednar as well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Would the Jays have any interest in taking on Bumgarner assuming Kikuchi went the other way?

 

[phillipmike]

I like Reynolds in season because he was the best option available. But now you have guys like Bellinger, Gallo, Kiermaier, Conforto and Brantley available, don’t need to give up assets for Reynolds. Rebounds was a 2.9 bWAR player last year and you better believe they are going to ask for Tiedemann+, so I rather get Bellinger, Kiermaier or Conforto for CF for nothing but money and keep my catching depth and prospects for our use or other trades.

 

[Discoverer]

I like Reynolds in season because he was the best option available. But now you have guys like Bellinger, Gallo, Kiermaier, Conforto and Brantley available, don’t need to give up assets for Reynolds. Rebounds was a 2.9 bWAR player last year and you better believe they are going to ask for Tiedemann+, so I rather get Bellinger, Kiermaier or Conforto for CF for nothing but money and keep my catching depth and prospects for our use or other trades.

I guess part of it comes down to how much money they have available to spend.

Reynolds makes $6.75 this year and Steamer projects him for 3.9 fWAR.

Bellinger, Gallo, and Conforto are all buy-low players who will make more money than Reynolds and project for less than 2 fWAR. Kiermaier and Brantley will probably make more, too, and they're frequently-injured borderline starters.

I don't know exactly what price I would pay, but considering where the Jays are right now on the win curve I think it's well worth it to give up a couple valuable assets for those couple extra wins. I don't love the idea of plugging in a bounceback candidate and hoping for the best (though I like Bellinger more than the others because of his age).

Of course, this is all assuming they can use whatever money they have to make an impact pitching addition.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Find a way Atkins lets go.

 

[kb]

That's why a 3 way trade makes sense. Lots of teams need catchers.

Jays could shop around Kirk or Moreno and then ask what pieces off those teams would interest the Pirates in a deal for Reynolds.

100% agreed, but every Pitts proposal I see includes a C.

Definitely would need to get a third team involved. Perhaps the D-Backs might fit the bill with their glut at OF.

 

[phillipmike]

I guess part of it comes down to how much money they have available to spend.

Reynolds makes $6.75 this year and Steamer projects him for 3.9 fWAR.

Bellinger, Gallo, and Conforto are all buy-low players who will make more money than Reynolds and project for less than 2 fWAR. Kiermaier and Brantley will probably make more, too, and they're frequently-injured borderline starters.

I don't know exactly what price I would pay, but considering where the Jays are right now on the win curve I think it's well worth it to give up a couple valuable assets for those couple extra wins. I don't love the idea of plugging in a bounceback candidate and hoping for the best (though I like Bellinger more than the others because of his age).

Of course, this is all assuming they can use whatever money they have to make an impact pitching addition.

In those projections Reynolds has 150 more PAs than Bellinger and at least 200 more than the others (Brantley, Gallo, Kiermaier and Conforto).

No team is ever going to have sure things at every position. Contending teams, even the top ones plug bounce back candidates all over their team. For example the Dodger rotation had Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney in 40% of their rotation spots.

Like it or not, the Jays will have bounce back candidates at least 2 of the holes they need to fill; 2 OFs and 2 starters. I rather spend my assets (big money or prospects) on pitching than on hitting as hitters have an easier time bouncing back in the AL East than pitchers do.

Jays already have an all star in Springer. Teo, Tapia, Zimmer and JBJ only put up 2.6 fWAR last year across 1149 PAs, don’t need a lot to replace them. In fact if you land 3 guys that are at 1.2-1.7 fWAR, you’ve made an improvement from the 2022 OFs - in fact a pretty big one if they add up to 4-4.5 fWAR for nothing but money.

This break even analysis tips further away from you if you are giving away a 4 fWAR player in Kirk to land a projected 4 fWAR player in Reynolds. Or if it isn’t Kirk, then those valuable assets are Tiedemann+ or Moreno which isn’t a smart move. And that isn’t smart for a player like Renoylds who graded out as the worst CF according to UZR/150 and 2nd worst in DEF rating among qualified CFers.

Was last year an anomaly or is really a below average CF who you may have to move to the corners soon?

 

[Discoverer]

In those projections Reynolds has 150 more PAs than Bellinger and at least 200 more than the others (Brantley, Gallo, Kiermaier and Conforto).

No team is ever going to have sure things at every position. Contending teams, even the top ones plug bounce back candidates all over their team. For example the Dodger rotation had Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney in 40% of their rotation spots.

Like it or not, the Jays will have bounce back candidates at least 2 of the holes they need to fill; 2 OFs and 2 starters. I rather spend my assets (big money or prospects) on pitching than on hitting as hitters have an easier time bouncing back in the AL East than pitchers do.

Jays already have an all star in Springer. Teo, Tapia, Zimmer and JBJ only put up 2.6 fWAR last year across 1149 PAs, don’t need a lot to replace them. In fact if you land 3 guys that are at 1.2-1.7 fWAR, you’ve made an improvement from the 2022 OFs - in fact a pretty big one if they add up to 4-4.5 fWAR for nothing but money.

This break even analysis tips further away from you if you are giving away a 4 fWAR player in Kirk to land a projected 4 fWAR player in Reynolds. Or if it isn’t Kirk, then those valuable assets are Tiedemann+ or Moreno which isn’t a smart move. And that isn’t smart for a player like Renoylds who graded out as the worst CF according to UZR/150 and 2nd worst in DEF rating among qualified CFers.

Was last year an anomaly or is really a below average CF who you may have to move to the corners soon?

The scenario I suggested already included multiple bounceback-type candidates: Berrios and potentially White or Kikuchi in the rotation and whoever they add as the other new OF (potentially one of the guys you mentioned).

I'm not completely opposed to keeping all three catchers (especially if they think Moreno can play other positions now and then) but I think the way to make the team as good as possible the next 2-3 years is to make 2 impact additions: one in free agency, one by trading a catcher. There are a ton of potential situations and targets, but I think impact additions is key, especially with Teo leaving. I don't think grabbing a couple maybe-league-average-ish guys is a smart move at all.

I have nothing against your scenario if they also trade one of the catchers for a huge rotation upgrade. But if the bulk of the rest of their offseason is, say, Gallo and Heaney or something, then that's a horrible offseason and I would argue the team is probably worse than 2022.

As for swapping Kirk's 4 WAR for Reynolds's, the point is that Jansen and Moreno can make up most of Kirk's loss, while none of the other OF options we've discussed can do anything remotely close to what Reynolds is capable of, even if you see him as a corner OF.

 

[Discoverer]

The scenario I suggested already included multiple bounceback-type candidates: Berrios and potentially White or Kikuchi in the rotation and whoever they add as the other new OF (potentially one of the guys you mentioned).

I'm not completely opposed to keeping all three catchers (especially if they think Moreno can play other positions now and then) but I think the way to make the team as good as possible the next 2-3 years is to make 2 impact additions: one in free agency, one by trading a catcher. There are a ton of potential situations and targets, but I think impact additions is key, especially with Teo leaving. I don't think grabbing a couple maybe-league-average-ish guys is a smart move at all.

I have nothing against your scenario if they also trade one of the catchers for a huge rotation upgrade. But if the bulk of the rest of their offseason is, say, Gallo and Heaney or something, then that's a horrible offseason and I would argue the team is probably worse than 2022.

As for swapping Kirk's 4 WAR for Reynolds's, the point is that Jansen and Moreno can make up most of Kirk's loss, while none of the other OF options we've discussed can do anything remotely close to what Reynolds is capable of, even if you see him as a corner OF.

I will add, though... I really do like Bellinger as a bounceback guy. And I like Brantley too, especially if Kirk is moved in another trade and more DH time is available. Conforto is impossible to get a read on, but I have next-to-no interest in Gallo or Kiermaier as anything more than a 4th OF/platoon guy. (Most of them have quite an injury history, too, so I hope there's a good backup plan in place!)

But yeah, the big thing for me is that if they go that route with the OF, I'm on board as long as they make a big high-reward move to improve the rotation. They're at a place in their contention window where I would be extremely disappointed if they half-ass it and are just satisfied making a couple little moves here and there.

 

[phillipmike]

I will add, though... I really do like Bellinger as a bounceback guy. And I like Brantley too, especially if Kirk is moved in another trade and more DH time is available. Conforto is impossible to get a read on, but I have next-to-no interest in Gallo or Kiermaier as anything more than a 4th OF/platoon guy. (Most of them have quite an injury history, too, so I hope there's a good backup plan in place!)

But yeah, the big thing for me is that if they go that route with the OF, I'm on board as long as they make a big high-reward move to improve the rotation. They're at a place in their contention window where I would be extremely disappointed if they half-ass it and are just satisfied making a couple little moves here and there.

That was my whole point, grab the cheap short term athletic outfielders and spend the rest of your assets on a big name pitcher like a Verlander or a Rodon. Or your assets on a trade for starters.

But I disagree with your position if they go bargain hunting then the team is worse than 2022. At the moment here is who we lost and what they are being replaced with;

Teo, Tapia, JBJ and Zimmer. As I said, if you’re buying into my scenario and adding Bellinger, Brantley and say Gallo, you’re already better than that 2022 group in the OF.

Swanson with a full season of Bass and Pop makes the bullpen better than 2022 instead of say Phelps, Thornton, Merryweather, and guys like Borucki. Could include Pearson too and maybe Zueleta as options.

Moreno replaces Collins and Heineman. The catching depth is better than 2022.

Adding a full season of Merrifield should be better than guys like Katoh, Lopez, Capra and even some of Biggio’s at bats. Outside of that the infield is the same.

And that leaves a 2-3 WAR starter to replace Stripling. Could grab a guy like Heaney or even Syndergaard to replace Strip or even bring Strip back. So the rotation would be the same.

Jays got 10 starts from openers and spot starters. Mitch White replacing those guys over a full season is at worst the same with some potential to be better.

I’m not advocating the Jays do this, but the team has an opportunity to be a lot better with even just small adds because you’re only losing Stripling, Phelps and Teo. I know Teo is a big name but he was giving you near average production out of RF. But in total if you include all the negative WAR guys and add Swnason, you’re probably only losing 3-4 WAR off your 2022 team if you do nothing. Clearly the Jays aren’t going to do nothing but bargain hunting with full seasons of Moreno, Merrifield, White, Swanson, Bass and Pop easily make your team better on paper.