Observations XIX

[bdub24]

If he has a few solid games and the Pens backups continue to be an abortion I don't think they'd hesitate picking him up.

Man that would be awesome should we face them in the finals again. I have no idea why we put him back in our system.

 

[Legionnaire11]

If he plays well enough that he would get claimed, then he would probably be playing well enough that we'd just keep him as the backup.

If he's not good enough to stay up, then I'm not worried about him getting claimed.

 

[Dave is a killer]

The difference between a true #1 and a 1B was on display Saturday Night. Hat Trick vs not a g d thing.

 

[INDhockeyfan]

Saros will get another game next week and we'll see how he does. A backup who plays a few games a month is not the biggest issue. 5 on 5 scoring is a much more pressing issue. If it wasn't for Rinne and Forsberg we'd be in the cellar. The fact that the rest of the division other than St. Louis have all had problems means that we are still in a decent position.

 

[adsfan]

Man that would be awesome should we face them in the finals again. I have no idea why we put him back in our system.

Because the Preds would only have goalies with minor league experience backing up Rinne. Isn't that what people have been complaining about? That Saros doesn't seem ready? I can tell that O'Connor doesn't seem ready for the AHL; based on ONE entire game. He has to play for Milwaukee, just like Saros has to be able to play for Nashville. It isn't 1965 any more.

 

[101st_fan]

Saros isn't a 1B ... he's a clear 2 in our system. We don't need him to win every game but we sure as hell can't afford to lose every one of his starts.

 

[Pred303]

no, we really need saros to go at least 10-10 in his 20 odd starts.

 

[Pred303]

hartnell's minus 9 in 11 games is fairly worrying. and the fact we are giving up right at 4 goals per 60 minutes of his even strength ice time as well.

 

[David Singleton]

there are even more simple, basic stats that show our pitiful offensive play;

..we are 26th in total goal scoring per game. 2.45 goals per game is an awful number.
..we are dead last in the league in actual 5 on 5 goals scored. only 12 in 11 games now. for example Toronto has 30.

and how's this... we have now scored 12 pp goals... and 12 5 on 5 goals. no team in the history of the league has ever scored as many pp goals as 5 on 5 goals in a season.

and to further depress us, of our 12 '5 on 5' goals, one was an empty netter, and another was on a 6 on 5.

Some explanation for some of this (in my opinion)...

Colton Sissons had a fantastic Game 6 against Anaheim. Gaudreau played well against Pittsburgh. Both had an advantage in the opponent not having a lot of tape on them and/or the roles in which they played. Had Johansen not been available for the entire run against Anaheim, I don't believe they would have beaten the Ducks.

At the moment, the Predators seem to be a mess.

• Johansen is not playing well right now. That's very unfortunate for a team hurting at C after Johansen. Having said that, he still commands the respect of the opponent.
• Beyond Johansen, Gaudreau is playing the best at C. We'll see how long that goes as teams adjust, but the effort he puts in on both ends will help him- and he seems to have a bit more offensive upside than Jarnkrok.
• Speaking of, Jarnkrok is offensive black hole that sucks in his linemates (gifted turnovers notwithstanding). Outstanding PKer.
• Bonino is hurt. When healthy, he was playing at 3C levels for now.
• Sissons has spurts. But there was a reason he was 4th line or scratched a fair part of last season.
• Defensively, that 3rd pair is such a tire fire when Girard isn't playing it's pressuring the rest of the team.
• Subban is having a rough patch- perhaps from trying to compensate for the 3rd pair.
• As for Girard, the team is trying very hard to not play him. Whether that is in fear of teams catching up to him, contractual status, or both, his lack of playing is resulting in a tire fire on the 3rd pair.
• Saros is not significant problem as compared to the problems at C and on the third pair, but he needs to play and regain confidence. I expect to see him get a stint in MWK soon.

Offensively, most of the problems stem from an inability of someone to handle the 2C duties (combined with Johansen's lackluser play of late).

Defensively, they can't continue the tire fire on the 3rd pair and hope to win. Don't know what they do here. Playing Girard is the easy answer, but what happens if he hits a wall?

What we do know is that they are digging another hole to climb out of at the start of another season. That is dangerous to keep doing.

 

[drwpreds]

Sitting in Bridgestone Saturday watching that horrendous performance (and lamenting that I drove 6 hours round trip to watch that crapfest) my mind started wandering- I starting thinking- can we just get in a time machine and fast forward to next season????

By that time:
* I fully expect that we will have traded for/acquired at least one top 6 forward

* There is a chance Tolvanen will be on the team, giving us another legit sniper/scoring threat.

* Ellis will (hopefully) be 100% and we will open a season with our top 4 ready to go.

* Girard will almost certainly be with the team full time (and its possible that one of our other D prospects could be ready at some point, too).

All joking aside, I really believe that for numerous reasons we could be much better set up to win/contend next year than this year. (IF, and it’s a big if- we can squeeze another good year out of Rinne).

Although, of course, you can never be sure- we could easily have new injuries/issues by then, too.

I also do believe there is something to the “Stanley Cup” hangover effect. The Penguins and Preds both have looked absolutely terrible numerous times this season. And I don’t know if I am the only one, but I will fully admit that I still have a little bit of it as a fan.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I saw a tweet posted on the Bruins board in which it listed the Predators as 5th in total minutes lost to injury so far this season.

Obviously it wouldn't fix all of our problems, but having Bonino and Ellis healthy would definitely be a boost to the lineup.

 

[Pred303]

we are simply a good team. not an elite top 8 type team (like many seem to think). we didn't do anything to improve the roster. nothing. all we did was basically try to maintain the status quo of a 10-15th type roster. the maintaining production plan depended on hartnell and bonino replacing the production of fisher, neal and Wilson (that being 52 goals). and the real risk, depending on Aberg, Fiala and Saros improving dramatically from last year on top of those two to improve the roster..

don't think we are an elite team. if you do, you are setting yourself up for major disappointment. the playoffs are a crapshoot most years. the best teams don't necessarily advance. the ones that get hot at exactly the right time do. probably won't happen again (remember EDM going to the finals a few years ago with a crap roster?). but it could of course. so you play the year to make the playoffs. (something I am worried about to be honest)

 

[token grinder]

Well, that really sucked. Hard.



Not the game we needed before this trip.

No, but it could be as well. A few days off. A couple of practices to look at a ton of mistakes to grow from.
From a coaching standpoint, they have to love all improvements that we could make.

 

[token grinder]

Playing Girard is the easy answer, but what happens if he hits a wall?

Maybe that is why he is playing every 3 to 4 games? (and keeping him under 40 games)

 

[Scoresberg]

We may not be elite but if you think about weaknesses every team has them. We probably have the best defense in the league (if you think both D and O) and we have a great goalie on the net (at least for now. We have one of the best top lines in hockey with two, borderline three elite forwards and some good depth scorers, but just not enough. So, yes I wouldn't call us elite as we don't have a Crosby or a McDavid but as a team we are built very well, we are a legit contender and a top-10 team in the league. That doesn't warrant anything but that gives us a pretty good chance.

Our team will continue to get better over the next couple of years (Tolvanen, Kamenev, Fiala, Girard) but the only question mark is the goalie. Imo, Rinne still has issues but he's looked great for 7 months now and I think he will be at least average next year as well. But the year after that? Not so sure anymore.

 

[NSH615]

We may not be elite but if you think about weaknesses every team has them. We probably have the best defense in the league (if you think both D and O) and we have a great goalie on the net (at least for now. We have one of the best top lines in hockey with two, borderline three elite forwards and some good depth scorers, but just not enough. So, yes I wouldn't call us elite as we don't have a Crosby or a McDavid but as a team we are built very well, we are a legit contender and a top-10 team in the league. That doesn't warrant anything but that gives us a pretty good chance.

Our team will continue to get better over the next couple of years (Tolvanen, Kamenev, Fiala, Girard) but the only question mark is the goalie. Imo, Rinne still has issues but he's looked great for 7 months now and I think he will be at least average next year as well. But the year after that? Not so sure anymore.

We are a 1 line team. That automatically makes us fail the legit contender test.

 

[Pred303]

everyone's definition of "elite' or even "good" is different. therefore you always get lots of pushback if you say we are or aren't "elite". To me, the "elite" teams are the top 5 type teams in the league. The few teams with rosters with real forward and defensive depth. In the big picture, generally the 104 point plus type teams over a full season. the 94-104 type teams are typically what i call "good" teams. Teams capable of beating any team in a short series. Those type teams tend to be the 6th-15th ranked type of teams by year end. Teams "on the cusp" of being good are typically the next 6-7 teams, the bubble type playoff teams. In other words, mediocre or average. Then the truly flawed roster type teams that bring up the rear.

Sometimes points alone of course don't show this due to injuries, bad luck, etc. but usually over the long course of the season those things even out mostly.

I think we have the "potential" to be one of those elite type teams. But that's just what it is, potential. Dependent on everything going exactly right. Every prospect playing to what we hoped. Every veteran having good years. A few guys having "career" type years. If that happens, well yeah, we magically become a 105 point type team. Of course virtually every other team says the exact same thing. And they are right, if all those things happen they probably could be too.

We simply don't have the depth of scoring to be the team we all want us to be (a true 'elite' top 5 team). To do that we would have to become a 3.00-3.25 goal per game type team. And i just don't see that happening with this roster. We are about 2-3 20 goal scorers short of that in fact. Maybe it happens with these youngsters.

From a pure defensive point of view our defensemen are overrated by many. Subban and Ekholm are really strong, Josi and Ellis are above average, and our bottom two are simply average. Now that's defensively. Offensively, we have the best top 4 defensemen in the league with Ellis healthy. No doubt in my mind about that.

Again, this is a good roster. Not what we want it to be, but a good roster.

 

[Dave is a killer]

Let's just hope it was just air knocked out of him

 

[LCPreds]

Eck hurt at practice today. Hope this isn't serious.

 

[Scoresberg]

We are a 1 line team. That automatically makes us fail the legit contender test.

I could argue we were a one line team through the playoffs and got two wins away. JOFA and our D carried our offense throughout the spring with some help from the bottom lines. Same kind of pattern developing this year.

 

[Scoresberg]

I'd much rather struggle now (like last season before X-mas) than in the spring. We have a much easier schedule in the spring and we're probably healthier. We're also playing better then rather than now. I've counted this team out so many times and they've always proven me wrong.

I believe in this team. 100%.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Lets step back from the kitchen knives, boys. It doesn't matter whether we're an Elite team in October. It matters in March. By then, we'll have 100% Ellis, 100% Bonino, probably a new Top 6 forward, and enough games to allow for the re-emergence of either Fiala, Smith, or Aberg. Most positive and important factor of the Pred October has been Pekka Rinne. Not only does he have off-the-chart numbers, and a 5-1-2 record, but he's doing it with a calm and positioning that we've never seen before. He's still athletic, but he's no longer lunging or overplaying the shot attempt. It's soothing to watch.

Take every legit negative thing we've discussed so far about our 1st 10 games and chuck them. If Pekka averages 2 goals per game, the Preds will earn 100 points and be a contender.

 

[jlsg]

everyone's definition of "elite' or even "good" is different. therefore you always get lots of pushback if you say we are or aren't "elite". To me, the "elite" teams are the top 5 type teams in the league. The few teams with rosters with real forward and defensive depth. In the big picture, generally the 104 point plus type teams over a full season. the 94-104 type teams are typically what i call "good" teams. Teams capable of beating any team in a short series. Those type teams tend to be the 6th-15th ranked type of teams by year end. Teams "on the cusp" of being good are typically the next 6-7 teams, the bubble type playoff teams. In other words, mediocre or average. Then the truly flawed roster type teams that bring up the rear.

Sometimes points alone of course don't show this due to injuries, bad luck, etc. but usually over the long course of the season those things even out mostly.

I think we have the "potential" to be one of those elite type teams. But that's just what it is, potential. Dependent on everything going exactly right. Every prospect playing to what we hoped. Every veteran having good years. A few guys having "career" type years. If that happens, well yeah, we magically become a 105 point type team. Of course virtually every other team says the exact same thing. And they are right, if all those things happen they probably could be too.

We simply don't have the depth of scoring to be the team we all want us to be (a true 'elite' top 5 team). To do that we would have to become a 3.00-3.25 goal per game type team. And i just don't see that happening with this roster. We are about 2-3 20 goal scorers short of that in fact. Maybe it happens with these youngsters.

From a pure defensive point of view our defensemen are overrated by many. Subban and Ekholm are really strong, Josi and Ellis are above average, and our bottom two are simply average. Now that's defensively. Offensively, we have the best top 4 defensemen in the league with Ellis healthy. No doubt in my mind about that.

Again, this is a good roster. Not what we want it to be, but a good roster.

I don't disagree with this but I think it should be said that a large majority of the NHL would love to have the team that the Preds are right now. Yes, the potential hasn't been realized to date but it's a long season and we all know what this team is capable of. And I mean this team as it sits today is as capable of winning it all as any of the top 6 or 8 teams in the league. I don't know that the 'elite' team exists anymore.

 

[drwpreds]

I could argue we were a one line team through the playoffs and got two wins away. JOFA and our D carried our offense throughout the spring with some help from the bottom lines. Same kind of pattern developing this year.

I agree with you completely. For the life of me, I will never understand the excessive negativity after we just came within two wins from winning the freaking cup.

I guess the doom and gloom people are just chalking up our run last year as a complete fluke. That is the only way you can look at our team right now as a non-contender. I don't think last year was a fluke- we ran through 3 near elite teams last year. Go back and look at history of teams who came out of nowhere to make runs- very few of them had to go through the type of gauntlet we ran through last year. And then we came darn close to beating the Penguins without our #1C.

If we can get healthy then our team this year is still very similar to last year. Not having Neal hurts, but losing him is not enough to take this team from two wins away from Cup to a team that is not a contender. We absolutely have some issues at forward right now, but we also have the best offensive top 4 D in the entire league so if there is any team in the league who can contend without having 2 or 3 stud forward lines, it is us. And as Scoresberg points out above, just about every other team has their own issues to deal with. It isn’t like we are having to compete against a bunch of perfect teams who have no problems at all.

I guess no one learned anything from last year- it is actually kind of funny. Last year all the way up until February, people on here were going on and on about how much trouble we were in and how we absolutely were not contenders. Even going into the playoffs many were still saying it. And how did that turn out for everyone?? But I guess the answer will be that all of it was a fluke. We got hot, yes, but you will never convince me it was a total fluke.

Now, having said all of that- do we have issues right now? Yep. Am I concerned about this team? Yes, I absolutely am. The division is going to be so competitive that it may be possible that we have to fight for a playoff spot again, or EVEN MISS THE PLAYOFFS. I absolutely think that is possible. But that does not mean we aren't a contender or aren't in very good shape as a franchise. Do you guys think Tampa Bay is a contender?? Of course they are. How did they do in the playoffs last year??? Oh, that is right- they didn't even make it.

So yes, that could happen to us. And if it does, I am sure everyone will come on here and scream "see- I told you so".

But despite everything I still feel very good about the big picture with this team and franchise. As I posted above, I think we could be set up better to win next year and the year after than this year. And I think we are just one top 6 forward away from being an elite team this year- and I firmly believe that we will be adding one before the trade deadline.

The one thing I am trying to preach to myself is DON'T OVERREACT to anything that happens this early in the season. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Just go back and look at our schedule last year. We had so many horrible moments in the first half last year. I remember right before Christmas we got beat 4-0 at home to LA. We looked AWFUL. Rinne had a terrible game. And as late as mid January we got blown out in Chicago, and had a 17-16-7 record. 17 wins in 40 games. The Hawks looked so much better team than us it wasn't even funny. At that time even I was pretty much doom and gloom at that time. Who in their right minds could have predicted at that time that we would not only go on to sweep that same Chicago team out of the playoffs, but also get within two wins of winning the Cup??
Absolutely no one.

I am sure I will just be painted with the "hopeless optimist" brush- but that is not what I am- I know we have issues- all I am saying is let's just let things play out and see what happens- despite everything, overall we are in excellent shape to contend not just this year, but for the next few as well.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I just keep thinking that there is no way that all of our forwards can just continue to not score for much longer. The odds are against having 10-12 players all having a career worst season at the same time.

At some point they will get some goals, they will get some confidence and the team will look a lot better.