Observations, Part II

[wadesworld]

With almost half the season gone, I took a look at our remaining schedule.

It appears our schedule was very front-loaded. It looks far easier the rest of the way. Sure, we've got the occasional game with a really good team such as more with Anaheim, Pittsburgh, two with the Habs, etc, but by in large a lot of the teams in the second half are the ones lower down the standings.

I'm not sure whether to be excited or fearful. We seem to play our worst against weak competition. Additionally, with many of these teams fighting for their playoff lives, we may get really strong games when we weren't expecting it.

Obviously the key is for the team to focus on itself. Don't worry about whom you're playing, just go out and do things right and the wins will happen. But it's going to be interesting to see whether things actually get easier or harder the rest of the way.

 

[handtrick]

pred hockey. it might well be listed as cause of death on my death certificate.

a prototypical trap game. and it almost was. took us 30 minutes to realize we were playing a NHL team and that almost cost us dearly. now, having said that, the team showed strong character not only coming back to tie, but especially coming back to tie that second time. by then, I was convinced we would take the lead. not totally convinced we could "hold the lead' after that, but convinced we would at least take the lead. a few quick thoughts to clear my head;

..handtrick! great to see you old buddy.
..I don't care who was picked as stars of the game, stalberg was THE star of the game and should have been recognized as such. don't remember ever saying that before. lol.
..our d-men once again saved our azzes. ellis and josi. can't think of anyone i'd rather see in the slot with the puck on their stick than those two.
..we got damn lucky on that off the crossbar 6 on 4. damn lucky.
..after that stupid play by gaustad i'd never let him on ice for the final 5 minutes of a game unless it was just to take a faceoff and skate off and change immediately. could have, probably should have cost us a point.
..it's possible Ribeiro went to tootsies right before this game. worst puck possession game I've seen him have this year.
..smith was a whirlwind, but couldn't whirlwind any results. but he played hard all game, unlike about 10 others early.
..grimson arguing we played a good first period should be enough to get him fired from the broadcast booth. analyst my azz.
..anyone thinking Ellis's goal was a lucky shot is wrong. that was a pinpoint shot to a two inch wide opening.

this is a game most past pred teams (or few teams anywhere) don't come back in. we were smothered in the neutral zone, we couldn't break their forecheck. we had about zero traffic to the net for most of wards saves. we looked lethargic for long stretches. their pp killed us. we had excuses of just having played our toughest 4 game stretch of the season and just getting back from the coast, and it being a non-conference game...and yet this crew found a way to turn it on just enough. while the performance overall wasn't impressive, being able to reach down deep and find a way certainly was.

that part I enjoyed immensely.

Agree about Stalberg 100%, but makes me question whether we have such a low expectation from him because of his body of work for the past 2 years that it was exceptional game for him, but above average for most players that we see night in night out.

Did Stu have a bad makeup night or was the lighting just bad. He looked like Herman Munster without the screws in his neck. As undercritical as his color analysis is, I still take him everyday over Crisp. His presence also makes pete call a better game because he is not continuously trying to crack cheesy jokes to make Terry laugh.

If there is a better 7th dman in the league than Bartley, fill me in, because he would have secure spot on most NHL bluelines. Continually amazed how he plays with such confidence and poise every time he steps out of the press box.

 

[drwpreds]

As others have stated, last night was 100% a game that would have been a frustrating 1-0 or 2-1 loss the last two years.

26-9-4- I just can’t believe the season we are having- unreal. If this is a dream please do not wake me.

And not only have we not lost back to back games all season, but how about this- we have 9 regulation losses this year. Unless I am mistaken, all but one (the 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh) was either a 1 goal loss or a 2 goal loss because of an empty net goal.

That means that in 38 of our 39 games, we either won, or had the goalie pulled to try to tie the game in the final minute (or lost in OT/SO).

That is freaking incredible. I am pretty sure there isn’t a team in the league who can say that.

We are almost half way through the season, and we still haven’t had what I would consider a single “stinker†game all season. I'm talking one of those awful games where the team just doesn't show up.

Most lopsided loss was the 3-0 to Pitt, but I don’t think we played terrible in that game by any stretch. I think maybe the worst game to me was the Thanksgiving Edmonton home game or the loss at Carolina.

Just a remarkable season we are having so far.

 

[FossilFndr]

I think Poile will wait to the deadline and assess our health before he makes a move.
I don't think he goes for broke this year, because I think he think we will be even better over the next 2 years with experience of our young guys.
I think he will also get a feel whether Fisher and Ribeiro are going to be easy extensions. If both are, he may make a small tweet at the deadline.
If both are likely not going to resign for whatever reason, he may go for it.
BTW, I think Jagr would be an awesome deadline pickup

As long as it isn't a Peter Forsberg type trade for a one year old guy rental. Now if we could get someone with 2 - 3 good years left ...

 

[Pred303]

as consistently good as we've been all year, one thing i don't understand is why we tend to so often give up the first goal of the game. 23 of 39 games we've now given up the first goal and it's even more puzzling when you see in the first period we've allowed the 4th fewest goals in the league and outscored oppenents 32 to 25 in the first period.

it's concerning because just looking at our record in games when we score first versus when we don't. 13-1-2 (.813) when we score first versus 13-8-2 (.565) when we don't.

our secret has been how often we've scored that tieing goal in the first. 12 of those 23 times we've fallen behind in the first we've scored to tie it up before the end of the period.

a few other team stats that i find interesting;
10-1-1 when we lead after the first, 15-1-2 when we lead after the second. 4-6-1 when we trail after the first, 2-7-0 when we trail after two (see how we defied the odds last night?).
this also means we are 9-1-2 when we enter the third tied, a very impressive stat in itself.

looking at goals for/against by period also shows how good we've been with the game on the line;
32-25 in first
35-28 in second
45-33 in third (2nd in league in goals scored in the third period)

and oh yeah, we're a league best 7-1 in games decided by three goals or more.

lot of numbers i know, but sometimes numbers help me to understand what we're seeing.

 

[JR303]

as consistently good as we've been all year, one thing i don't understand is why we tend to so often give up the first goal of the game. 23 of 39 games we've now given up the first goal and it's even more puzzling when you see in the first period we've allowed the 4th fewest goals in the league and outscored oppenents 32 to 25 in the first period.

it's concerning because just looking at our record in games when we score first versus when we don't. 13-1-2 (.813) when we score first versus 13-8-2 (.565) when we don't.

our secret has been how often we've scored that tieing goal in the first. 12 of those 23 times we've fallen behind in the first we've scored to tie it up before the end of the period.

a few other team stats that i find interesting;
10-1-1 when we lead after the first, 15-1-2 when we lead after the second. 4-6-1 when we trail after the first, 2-7-0 when we trail after two (see how we defied the odds last night?).
this also means we are 9-1-2 when we enter the third tied, a very impressive stat in itself.

looking at goals for/against by period also shows how good we've been with the game on the line;
32-25 in first
35-28 in second
45-33 in third (2nd in league in goals scored in the third period)

and oh yeah, we're a league best 7-1 in games decided by three goals or more.

lot of numbers i know, but sometimes numbers help me to understand what we're seeing.

Wow, I never would have guessed that. In the games that I've gotten to see this year, it "feels" like we've been getting crushed in the second period. Maybe that's just when Rinne is at his best.

 

[drwpreds]

as consistently good as we've been all year, one thing i don't understand is why we tend to so often give up the first goal of the game. 23 of 39 games we've now given up the first goal and it's even more puzzling when you see in the first period we've allowed the 4th fewest goals in the league and outscored oppenents 32 to 25 in the first period.

it's concerning because just looking at our record in games when we score first versus when we don't. 13-1-2 (.813) when we score first versus 13-8-2 (.565) when we don't.

our secret has been how often we've scored that tieing goal in the first. 12 of those 23 times we've fallen behind in the first we've scored to tie it up before the end of the period.

a few other team stats that i find interesting;
10-1-1 when we lead after the first, 15-1-2 when we lead after the second. 4-6-1 when we trail after the first, 2-7-0 when we trail after two (see how we defied the odds last night?).
this also means we are 9-1-2 when we enter the third tied, a very impressive stat in itself.

looking at goals for/against by period also shows how good we've been with the game on the line;
32-25 in first
35-28 in second
45-33 in third (2nd in league in goals scored in the third period)

and oh yeah, we're a league best 7-1 in games decided by three goals or more.

lot of numbers i know, but sometimes numbers help me to understand what we're seeing.

Like you, I love looking at and analyzing numbers and stats.

The thing that stands out in your post is the 13-8-2 record when allowing the first goal- that is pretty darn impressive.

There are only 4 teams in the entire league with a .500 or better winning % when giving up the first goal:

1. New York Islanders 12-4-0 .750
2. Nashville 13-8-2 .565
3. Detroit 11-6-3 .550
4. Tampa Bay 10-9-1 .500

(That Islanders record is crazy- .750 win percentage???)

To show how good those records are, there are only 10 teams with an above .400 win % when trailing first, the other 20 are .399 or below. The Capitals, a pretty good team, have trailed first in 16 games and have won ONE of them.

 

[handtrick]

As long as it isn't a Peter Forsberg type trade for a one year old guy rental. Now if we could get someone with 2 - 3 good years left ...

Our ownership is no where near the mindset from where we were when Leopold told Poile to go for broke the year we dealt for Forsberg, therefore paying the "exorbitant" price of a 1st, 3rd, Parent, and Upshall. In reality, the low 1st rounder ended up being the only significant piece that was given up. But as you may or may not remember, Poile got that 1st rounder back for the negotiating rights to Hartnell and Timonen, which Leopold was firesaleing anyway. Unfortunately that 1st rounder turned out to be Jonathan Blum.

Deadline deals are usually "rental" players like Jagr would be. Poile has pulled off a number of deals with "2 or 3 good years left" near the deadline....sully and Fisher come to mind.

Anyway, I think Jagr could be picked up as rental for a "modest price" maybe a 2nd rounder and a prospect, which I would be more than happy with if Poile didn't find a Fisher or Sully type of deal.

 

[PerdFan]

Our ownership is no where near the mindset from where we were when Leopold told Poile to go for broke the year we dealt for Forsberg, therefore paying the "exorbitant" price of a 1st, 3rd, Parent, and Upshall. In reality, the low 1st rounder ended up being the only significant piece that was given up. But as you may or may not remember, Poile got that 1st rounder back for the negotiating rights to Hartnell and Timonen, which Leopold was firesaleing anyway. Unfortunately that 1st rounder turned out to be Jonathan Blum.

Deadline deals are usually "rental" players like Jagr would be. Poile has pulled off a number of deals with "2 or 3 good years left" near the deadline....sully and Fisher come to mind.

Anyway, I think Jagr could be picked up as rental for a "modest price" maybe a 2nd rounder and a prospect, which I would be more than happy with if Poile didn't find a Fisher or Sully type of deal.

It will be worth getting Jagr if only to see Wilson go all fan girl over his favorite player.

He has gushed more than once that Jagr is the player he wants to model his game after and Wilson looks like he might actually finally try to accomplish that goal this year. Would be cool to have them on a line together. I'd like to see someone get a puck away from those two, lol.

 

[ThirdManIn]

..grimson arguing we played a good first period should be enough to get him fired from the broadcast booth. analyst my azz.

I heard him trying to defend that dreadful first period, and my first thought was "Damn, I bet 303 is steaming right now"

Also, it's always good to see handtrick around

 

[handtrick]

It will be worth getting Jagr if only to see Wilson go all fan girl over his favorite player.

He has gushed more than once that Jagr is the player he wants to model his game after and Wilson looks like he might actually finally try to accomplish that goal this year. Would be cool to have them on a line together. I'd like to see someone get a puck away from those two, lol.

Lol. that would be a priceless sight to see Wilson carrying around his jock.
Seriously, jagr is supposed to be phenomenal around younger players. Giroux credits him for helping to take his game to the next level. His hard work and consistency on every shift would fit in beautifully with the chemistry of this team, not even to mention his leadership with playoff experience. I would also think that Lavy's experience with him during the Flyers 2011-2 season would be a huge factor in getting him here.

 

[ThirdManIn]

As others have stated, last night was 100% a game that would have been a frustrating 1-0 or 2-1 loss the last two years.

26-9-4- I just can’t believe the season we are having- unreal. If this is a dream please do not wake me.

And not only have we not lost back to back games all season, but how about this- we have 9 regulation losses this year. Unless I am mistaken, all but one (the 3-0 loss to Pittsburgh) was either a 1 goal loss or a 2 goal loss because of an empty net goal.

That means that in 38 of our 39 games, we either won, or had the goalie pulled to try to tie the game in the final minute (or lost in OT/SO).

That is freaking incredible. I am pretty sure there isn’t a team in the league who can say that.

We are almost half way through the season, and we still haven’t had what I would consider a single “stinker†game all season. I'm talking one of those awful games where the team just doesn't show up.

Most lopsided loss was the 3-0 to Pitt, but I don’t think we played terrible in that game by any stretch. I think maybe the worst game to me was the Thanksgiving Edmonton home game or the loss at Carolina.

Just a remarkable season we are having so far.

To go along with this, everyone knows that we are 13-0-0 in games immediately following a loss, but my brother mentioned earlier that we are 20-3-2 in the two games following a loss. Our ability to lose and then it into at least a mini-streak is insane.

 

[Adz]

Oddly, I think it takes some of the pressure off a goalie/team when that first goal goes in. It's not going to be a shut out--so just play good hockey. If the team has confidence and feels they can win games, it doesn't matter whether the first goal was for or against. Maybe it's a good motivator to realize that your W-L record means squat during a game--you still have to stop pucks and you still have to score to earn the win.

 

[bdub24]

Peter Horachek will be coaching the Maple Leafs vs the Capitals. I wish they could play to a tie. Best of luck to a couple of great men.

 

[triggrman]

Oddly, I think it takes some of the pressure off a goalie/team when that first goal goes in. It's not going to be a shut out--so just play good hockey. If the team has confidence and feels they can win games, it doesn't matter whether the first goal was for or against. Maybe it's a good motivator to realize that your W-L record means squat during a game--you still have to stop pucks and you still have to score to earn the win.

As a player in far lower levels, I think it depends on the type of goal. If it's really soft, I'll play more conservative for the rest of the game. If it's bad luck goal, I'll keep playing aggressive.

 

[jstreet]

Peter Horachek will be coaching the Maple Leafs vs the Capitals. I wish they could play to a tie. Best of luck to a couple of great men.

Yeah, I was really hoping that Horachek could work some magic with the Panthers, too bad it didnt work out.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Tough game tomorrow against a Dallas team who has won 8 of their last 10.

 

[NSH615]

Tough game tomorrow against a Dallas team who has won 8 of their last 10.

And lost their last 2.

 

[Pred303]

couple of decisions i disagreed with last night;

1)jokinen on the fisher line
2)starting jones-ellis on the 1 minute carry over pp into the second. makes no sense to me when you have weber and josi rested and ready.
3)jokinen on the pp. i know we are running thin on pp forwards, but jokinen?

obviously lavy is trying to get him going somehow i guess

 

[MrJoshua]

Yeah, I don't know what the coaching staff sees in Jokinen. I understand some people are sick or injured right now but once there's another available body I hope they either sit him or drop him down to the fourth line. I don't mind him with Gaustad but he sucks the life out of every other line he's on.

This would be a great time for Neal to come back and get hot, because the team is sitting in a good position. A good hot streak could put them in a really good place before the trade deadline.

 

[Adz]

As a player in far lower levels, I think it depends on the type of goal. If it's really soft, I'll play more conservative for the rest of the game. If it's bad luck goal, I'll keep playing aggressive.

Probably does. Logan (certainly far lower level--ha!) seemed to either relax or get really mad so he probably had the same general guidelines.

 

[jwhouk]

As others have stated, last night was 100% a game that would have been a frustrating 1-0 or 2-1 loss the last two years.

I tuned in halfway through the 3rd. My first thought was exactly this. I think we're so dang conditioned to think "oh, we're going to lose this one 2-1" that we don't realize these aren't your father's Predators anymore.

 

[triggrman]

I said something yesterday about Acrobello hopefully being Jokinen's replacement. However, last night's game wasn't very good for him and Jokinen actually looked a little better.

 

[Pred303]

I said something yesterday about Acrobello hopefully being Jokinen's replacement. However, last night's game wasn't very good for him and Jokinen actually looked a little better.

you're right trig, arcobella didn't have a good game, couple of weak giveaways and mashed off the puck a few times. in fact that whole line (arco-jarnkrok-boutque) was somewhat overpowered I thought for most of the night and didn't sustain much

 

[bdub24]

I said something yesterday about Acrobello hopefully being Jokinen's replacement. However, last night's game wasn't very good for him and Jokinen actually looked a little better.

I agree. The game seeemed to be moving too fast for Archie last night.