Spoken like someone who doesn't understand statistics.
The players who are pacing for above a 50-goal pace are likely to be getting relatively lucky, so they're, in general, expected to not maintain their pace. This happens all the time.
Now let's see how we're doing:
Matthews 52(cleared)
Reinhart pacing for 55
Kucherov pacing for 52
Pastrnak pacing for 50
Hyman pacing for 53
MacKinnon pacing for 47
Boeser pacing for 45
Panarin pacing for 45
So if everyone maintains their pace, that's 5 players scoring 50 goals. I'd say that in the order of likelihood:
4 above
5 above
under 4 above
6 above
Yet you don't think under 4 deserves to even be a poll option because it's not "statistically likely."
How statistically likely is it that we'll have 8, 9, or 10 50-goal scorers, pray tell?
You just made a bad poll and double down instead of admitting it.
Okay, a lot to break down there chief. First of all the 8-10 options are indeed unlikely but they are an upper end. Any numbers poll is by default better off having a higher ceiling than an unlikely low end which only needs a certain amount of time to become obsolete.
On pacing, your conclusion would often apply to early season numbers. Alex Rodriguez was one on pace for 101 home runs with somewhere around 40 games or 25% into the MLB season. That's not at all the case here with players being over 50% games played when I made the options. There is just as much of a chance of a player slightly going above their pace at that point as there is of them dropping.
Pastrnak has scored just 3 goals in his last 10 which implies he will improve his pacing.
MacKinnon has scored just 2 goals in his last 9, equally likely to improve pacing.
Kucherov and Hyman are highly likely now with their games remaining, consistency and proximity to the mark.
Boeser had an 8 game cold streak before 3 in his last 4 and I don't need to even bring up Reinhart.
I also think there's something to be said for when players get to 45-47 range and depending on value of points and how game is going will go for 50 and their teammates will help. Crosby has only had a single 50 goal season on his career.