Number of 50 Goal Scorers this Year? (2024)

[WingsFan95]

Hyman with 2. I think he's being overlooked as a safer pick to hit 50 considering McDavid passing to him so consistently and so many games in hand.

Boeser gets of the schneid may be too far back but we'll see.

MacKinnon, Pastrnak and Kucherov given their history should be considered more likely than not with so many games to play they need roughly .500 from here on out after some cold runs.

 

[Calderon]

Hyman with 2. I think he's being overlooked as a safer pick to hit 50 considering McDavid passing to him so consistently and so many games in hand.

Boeser gets of the schneid may be too far back but we'll see.

MacKinnon, Pastrnak and Kucherov given their history should be considered more likely than not with so many games to play they need roughly .500 from here on out after some cold runs.

Yeah Hyman is starting to look as a rather safe bet in light of McDavid's 100 assist pursuit. I'd rather we had more than fewer 50+ goal tallies, maybe someone in the 60s so that Matthews doesn't crush the opposition to the tune that it seems right now.

 

[Raging Bull]

Seems like Reinharts been stuck at 39 forever.

 

[ijuka]

Overreaction much? It is statistically likely we have at least 4 finish with 50+ goals, if I'm off it will be very close like 48-49 goal finishes. Secondly the poll goes up to 10 where I don't think it's realistic to consider beyond that although I already admitted that would be wild (but plausible).

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand statistics.

The players who are pacing for above a 50-goal pace are likely to be getting relatively lucky, so they're, in general, expected to not maintain their pace. This happens all the time.

Now let's see how we're doing:

Matthews 52(cleared)
Reinhart pacing for 55
Kucherov pacing for 52
Pastrnak pacing for 50
Hyman pacing for 53
MacKinnon pacing for 47
Boeser pacing for 45
Panarin pacing for 45

So if everyone maintains their pace, that's 5 players scoring 50 goals. I'd say that in the order of likelihood:

4 above
5 above
under 4 above
6 above

Yet you don't think under 4 deserves to even be a poll option because it's not "statistically likely."

How statistically likely is it that we'll have 8, 9, or 10 50-goal scorers, pray tell?

You just made a bad poll and double down instead of admitting it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I chose 3, but there was no option for less than 4 at the time.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand statistics.

The players who are pacing for above a 50-goal pace are likely to be getting relatively lucky, so they're, in general, expected to not maintain their pace. This happens all the time.

Now let's see how we're doing:

Matthews 52(cleared)
Reinhart pacing for 55
Kucherov pacing for 52
Pastrnak pacing for 50
Hyman pacing for 53
MacKinnon pacing for 47
Boeser pacing for 45
Panarin pacing for 45

So if everyone maintains their pace, that's 5 players scoring 50 goals. I'd say that in the order of likelihood:

4 above
5 above
under 4 above
6 above

Yet you don't think under 4 deserves to even be a poll option because it's not "statistically likely."

How statistically likely is it that we'll have 8, 9, or 10 50-goal scorers, pray tell?

You just made a bad poll and double down instead of admitting it.

Crosby pacing for 48.

 

[WingsFan95]

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand statistics.

The players who are pacing for above a 50-goal pace are likely to be getting relatively lucky, so they're, in general, expected to not maintain their pace. This happens all the time.

Now let's see how we're doing:

Matthews 52(cleared)
Reinhart pacing for 55
Kucherov pacing for 52
Pastrnak pacing for 50
Hyman pacing for 53
MacKinnon pacing for 47
Boeser pacing for 45
Panarin pacing for 45

So if everyone maintains their pace, that's 5 players scoring 50 goals. I'd say that in the order of likelihood:

4 above
5 above
under 4 above
6 above

Yet you don't think under 4 deserves to even be a poll option because it's not "statistically likely."

How statistically likely is it that we'll have 8, 9, or 10 50-goal scorers, pray tell?

You just made a bad poll and double down instead of admitting it.

Okay, a lot to break down there chief. First of all the 8-10 options are indeed unlikely but they are an upper end. Any numbers poll is by default better off having a higher ceiling than an unlikely low end which only needs a certain amount of time to become obsolete.

On pacing, your conclusion would often apply to early season numbers. Alex Rodriguez was one on pace for 101 home runs with somewhere around 40 games or 25% into the MLB season. That's not at all the case here with players being over 50% games played when I made the options. There is just as much of a chance of a player slightly going above their pace at that point as there is of them dropping.


Pastrnak has scored just 3 goals in his last 10 which implies he will improve his pacing.
MacKinnon has scored just 2 goals in his last 9, equally likely to improve pacing.
Kucherov and Hyman are highly likely now with their games remaining, consistency and proximity to the mark.

Boeser had an 8 game cold streak before 3 in his last 4 and I don't need to even bring up Reinhart.

I also think there's something to be said for when players get to 45-47 range and depending on value of points and how game is going will go for 50 and their teammates will help. Crosby has only had a single 50 goal season on his career.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Absolutely terrible poll options. Where are the choices under 4? And why on earth are you going up to 10? This is so absurdly skewed.

Every time I think that market research is an easy job, I think of hfboards.

 

[WingsFan95]

Hyman and Pastrnak scoring goals in 1st periods tonight....

 

[WingsFan95]

MacKinnon joints Hyman and Reinhart as 40 goal scorers behind Matthews on the year.

Kucherov sitting at 38 with 19 to go
Pastrnak in a horrific slump at 38 with 18 to go

Nylander with 3 in last 4 and 21 games to go sitting at 33 might be one to watch for late season surge with all eyes on Matthews.

 

[WingsFan95]

MacKinnon and Pastrnak remain one good game away from 50 while Panarin making a late push. I would be shocked if it stays at 3 instead of 5-6.

 

[ijuka]

MacKinnon and Pastrnak remain one good game away from 50 while Panarin making a late push. I would be shocked if it stays at 3 instead of 5-6.

Clearly shocking it would be indeed, since there being 8, 9, or 10; was considered more likely than there being under 4.

 

[WingsFan95]

Clearly shocking it would be indeed, since there being 8, 9, or 10; was considered more likely than there being under 4.

I'll happily eat crow, Panarin at 46.